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Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

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Old 01-09-09, 08:43 AM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Trade in programs for catalog titles is a great idea...and if the studios used a Netflix model (meaning pre-paid postage), I think a lot of people who jump on that.

As I said in another thread, the combo disc, if done properly, could really work. But easier said then done.

And lastly, I stand behind my previous comment on streaming/downloading. If the studios wants us to jump on it, they need to make it work under a variety of conditions, so not to frustrate the non-technical crowd.
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Old 01-09-09, 09:00 AM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

I think the catalog titles play a big role in the growth of the format. One difference in this instance as opposed to when DVD was replacing VHS is that many, many more people have collected DVDs than had collected VHS. So more people already owning those movies equals less people running out and buying them on a new format.

Second, one of the enticing features of upgrading to DVD (other than the obvious better picture and sound) were the supplemental features. Very rarely did any VHS come with making-of material or the like. The inclusion of those features made the format more enticing. Converting from DVD to BD, you're largely depending on the average consumer's desire for better picture and sound alone. Sure, some BD offer features that the DVDs do not, but most catalog titles offer largely the same material (aside from maybe PIP) as their DVD counterparts. So I don't think there's as much incentive for consumers to make the switch.
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Old 01-09-09, 09:08 AM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by macnorton
As I said in another thread, the combo disc, if done properly, could really work. But easier said then done.
Combo-anything is a very bad idea. I tolerated it with HD DVD. I won't stand for it with Blu-ray. Separate discs are the way to go.
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Old 01-09-09, 09:26 AM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by Spiky
If you don't already have the TV and the surround sound, bring that $17.99 disc back and skip the PS3. I completely disagree with everything you said above.

1) Video. DVD barely looked better than VHS on "most" people's shitty 19" TVs. And the same goes for BD on "most" people's shitty 42" LCDs. You needed a TV upgrade for DVD, as well.

2) Audio. So, you're saying DVDs don't have surround sound? You should've spent the last 10 years getting a real TV and a real audio setup if you want them. I had my first surround system at 18 living in my parents' basement a decade before DVD appeared.

3) Features. Have you forgotten "progressive scan"? It took years before there were progressive scan players, and the first ones were absolute crap. Did you know Pioneer's first "affordable" progressive scan DVDp actually looked worse than the interlaced output?

4) Player. You did need to buy a DVD player, you know. Shoving the disc into your VCR didn't work so well. And prices have fallen faster for BD than DVD did.
A lot of people seem to forget all this, or due to age just don't remember... The biggest selling point or upgrade to dvd from vhs was ease of use. That is you could pop it in and watch with no rewinding or fast forwarding, etc. Over time, this has grown to the video and audio was such a huge leap no matter what. But again, this was only the case if, like BD, you had the right equipment.
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Old 01-09-09, 10:31 AM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by Mr. Cinema
I'm noticing a change in general about pricing complaints. Before, we were complaining about player pricing. Now that we have made the important jump to $200 or less, the focus has moved to software. But we should see some movement on that this year.
The CEs have already soured their potential goldmine with BD Players. Many can be had for $200 or less, and by the summertime you won't see many above $250 unless they are the "premium" version (SACD, DVD-A; Oppo, Denon etc). They killed their meal ticket way to early on that because of the poor economy, forcing adoption fast and bringing in the Chinese way too early. I feel bad for some of these CEs who kept off of making HD DVD players because Toshiba would "undercut" them with low HD DVD player prices when less then a year later BD players were the same price as HD DVD players when the format war was still viable! I could have gotten a Samsung 1500/Sony S350/Insignia in November 2008 for less then what Best Buy was charging for an A3 a year before (not counting BF prices for either year)!

Studios don't care (besides Sony) since they don't make BD players. Now, they have to try and sell their movies, again, to consumers who may have already purchased them on Beta, VHS, LaserDisc, DVD, maybe HD DVD, and now Blu-ray. Who wants to pay $20 for The Thing...AGAIN?!? The $10 rebates Paramount/Disney does is exactly what every studio should do. It's working (irked though Paramount neglected the upcoming Election from that program though). 2009 is gonna bring fourth huge changes. Catalog prices on older titles will drop making most $14.99-$17.99 in store. But thats older catalog titles...$40 for Ghostbusters? $30 for Beetlejuice? C'mon!
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Old 01-09-09, 11:40 AM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by RoboDad
The bargains that existed in the early days of DVD had nothing to do with studios setting bargain prices on their products. It was all due to retailers (mostly online) jockeying for market share. DVD had the good fortune to come on the scene at the same time that the Internet was just beginning to realize its potential as a commercial venue.

The problem is, almost all of the companies that were providing such DVD bargains back in the day are now defunct (and most of them because of those "bargains").
That's how I remember it, too. Except that Warner did lower list prices eventually, and that led to much more rapid sell-through and DVD collecting by ordinary consumers.

Furthermore, there are bargains to be had on BDs for those willing to be patient and shop around, especially on the net. And my recollection was that B&M prices for DVDs were quite high during the first few years. They still are, for new releases, in my view (I buy new releases for
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Old 01-09-09, 11:45 AM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by RoboDad
The bargains that existed in the early days of DVD had nothing to do with studios setting bargain prices on their products. It was all due to retailers (mostly online) jockeying for market share. DVD had the good fortune to come on the scene at the same time that the Internet was just beginning to realize its potential as a commercial venue.


Warner Brothers was the studio that finally relented and started dropping prices. They specifically stated they wanted DVD to be a good impulse purchase and to do that, you had to have a lot of discs in the $5 to $12 range.

And it worked.
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Old 01-09-09, 11:48 AM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
Catalog prices on older titles will drop making most $14.99-$17.99 in store. But thats older catalog titles...$40 for Ghostbusters? $30 for Beetlejuice? C'mon!
New releases of new movies need to be $25, tops. And that's for something like the three-disc WALL·E.

New releases of catalog movies need to be $17-22, tops.

Criterion is doing the same thing by keeping Criterion pricing on BDs. I'm fine with that. To date, they are the only home video distributor that seems to know what they fuck they're doing, price and feature wise.

Catalog movies and anything over 6 months old needs to be $12-$20.

Whenever that happens, you'll see BD's resurgence.

These are all in-store prices at places like BB, CC, Target, WM, etc.
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Old 01-09-09, 11:52 AM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by The Bus
Criterion is doing the same thing by keeping Criterion pricing on BDs. I'm fine with that. To date, they are the only home video distributor that seems to know what they fuck they're doing, price and feature wise.
Criterion appeals to a very select demographic. They already screwed up in my mind by releasing the movies is stupid, angeled slipcase/digipacks and using DVDs numbering system instead of a new one for BD. Pass.
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Old 01-09-09, 11:58 AM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

I just can't relate to placing packaging so far above content. They could put Rashomon in a dirty milk carton, and I'd still pre-order it as long as the presentation was up to snuff.
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Old 01-09-09, 12:05 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by Adam Tyner
I just can't relate to placing packaging so far above content. They could put Rashomon in a dirty milk carton, and I'd still pre-order it as long as the presentation was up to snuff.
+1.

I can't believe a number on the box spine is a possible deal-killer for a Criterion release! Good thing Gizmo doesn't think the Blu-ray logo looks too tacky or he might not own a player in the first place.
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Old 01-09-09, 12:14 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by Doctorossi
+1.

I can't believe a number on the box spine is a possible deal-killer for a Criterion release! Good thing Gizmo doesn't think the Blu-ray logo looks too tacky or he might not own a player in the first place.
I understand some people will buy a movie regardless of packaging, but Criterions choice is just baffling. A silly, angeled slip cover over a DigiBook? Bleh.
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Old 01-09-09, 12:16 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

You keep saying angled. It's only angled because of the shrink-wrap... until you take the shrink-wrap off.
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Old 01-09-09, 12:24 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by Doctorossi
You keep saying angled. It's only angled because of the shrink-wrap... until you take the shrink-wrap off.
My shrinkwrap is off my copy of Bottle Rocket - its still angled (not straight like other BD slipcovers). I'll take a picture if you don't beleive me when I get home.
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Old 01-09-09, 12:27 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
My shrinkwrap is off my copy of Bottle Rocket - its still angled (not straight like other BD slipcovers). I'll take a picture if you don't beleive me when I get home.
I'd love to see a picture of what it looks like, not that I don't believe you, I just don't know what the blu-ray criterions look like.
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Old 01-09-09, 12:37 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by Moopher
I'd love to see a picture of what it looks like, not that I don't believe you, I just don't know what the blu-ray criterions look like.
Here's a picture I found of a few of them:
http://img91.imageshack.us/my.php?image=shelfxy5.jpg

Notice the first two slanted in different directions?

I tried making my slip cover straight...but it simply wouldn't keep its shape.
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Old 01-09-09, 12:40 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by GizmoDVD
Here's a picture I found of a few of them:
http://img91.imageshack.us/my.php?image=shelfxy5.jpg

Notice the first two slanted in different directions?

I tried making my slip cover straight...but it simply wouldn't keep its shape.
Thanks!

Yes I can see the difference.. I don't like that. I've never been one to pounce on Criterions either way, but eh.
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Old 01-09-09, 12:55 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by RoboDad
The bargains that existed in the early days of DVD had nothing to do with studios setting bargain prices on their products. It was all due to retailers (mostly online) jockeying for market share. DVD had the good fortune to come on the scene at the same time that the Internet was just beginning to realize its potential as a commercial venue.

The problem is, almost all of the companies that were providing such DVD bargains back in the day are now defunct (and most of them because of those "bargains").
Well said. Any oranges-to-apples argument is worthless. There are BD deals to be found out there, just like there were for DVD (maybe not quite as good as they were then but as Robo said, it was a different time).

That said, the comparison that I think is important is the prices of BDs and DVDs NOW. It is a tough sell to get some one to buy something that is essentially the same to the layperson at a premium price.

I think BD has done all it can to get prices of the players down. NOW they need to affect some changes in the software pricing.
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Old 01-09-09, 01:26 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by DVD Polizei
Combo-anything is a very bad idea. I tolerated it with HD DVD. I won't stand for it with Blu-ray. Separate discs are the way to go.
Agreed, partially. Combos were terrible as introduced by HDDVD. they were unreliable and prompted many to express dissatisfaction.This being said, Disney will be pushing very hard to promote BD+DVD packages for some of their top releases. The idea is to encourage the transition to HD they desire. I believe that this would affect the 2DVD SE directly.

Pro-B
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Old 01-09-09, 01:46 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist
Agreed, partially. Combos were terrible as introduced by HDDVD. they were unreliable and prompted many to express dissatisfaction.This being said, Disney will be pushing very hard to promote BD+DVD packages for some of their top releases. The idea is to encourage the transition to HD they desire. I believe that this would affect the 2DVD SE directly.

Pro-B
I like the idea of BD+DVD releases a lot more, especially if they're at DVD SE prices (i.e. not $37-$30 in stores). I never had a problem with combos and found them useful a number of times.

And Criterion's packaging doesn't bother me.
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Old 01-09-09, 02:18 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by The Bus
I like the idea of BD+DVD releases a lot more, especially if they're at DVD SE prices (i.e. not $37-$30 in stores). I never had a problem with combos and found them useful a number of times.

And Criterion's packaging doesn't bother me.
My only problem with the combos is a couple of them tended to freeze near the end. I could never figure out the problem (heat?), but maybe a Blu-ray combo wouldn't have those issues.
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Old 01-09-09, 02:28 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

I didn't mind combo's but I could do without them. Disney's solution has been the best IMO.

Though it won't stop me from purchasing their product, Criterion's packaging still sucks and I'll bet anything they change it within the next year.
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Old 01-09-09, 02:48 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
That said, the comparison that I think is important is the prices of BDs and DVDs NOW. It is a tough sell to get some one to buy something that is essentially the same to the layperson at a premium price.

I think BD has done all it can to get prices of the players down. NOW they need to affect some changes in the software pricing.
Well, don't get too optimistic about that. Prices for Blu-ray will never be as low as DVD is at the same time. There's no point to that...and the studios aren't really on a mad rush to get everyone to own Blu-ray at the expense of their own margins. Especially since there isn't an effort to convert every DVD owner to Blu-ray NOW, and as such, pricing Blu-ray to match DVD NOW is just a bad idea (reason enough, it ain't going to happen). The studios would rather the layman not buy Blu-ray right now, than lower the price across the board so soon. And they don't need to...BD doesn't need to be bought by everyone so soon.

And really, people say catalogs aren't selling well, but I think this is based on people that really don't know what is good for a catalog to sell in the first place. It's not like any studio is losing money by releasing catalogs on Blu-ray. So I have to wonder, what exactly makes people say they're not selling well enough? Catalogs have never been major sellers outside of a limited selection of major hits. I just wonder what exactly people were expecting. I've seen the sales tails on catalog titles and they're paltry...they are not mega amazing on DVD, and terrible on Blu-ray. So...I ask to those saying catalog sales are bad...what frame of reference are you using to justify this? Catalogs sales are rarely if ever particularly impressive, and unlike DVD...Blu-ray is giving a bumped tail for old titles but with high margins instead of razor thin ones. I see certain people make these claims, and wonder what exactly they are even basing that on.
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Old 01-09-09, 05:17 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by jaeufraser
...And really, people say catalogs aren't selling well, but I think this is based on people that really don't know what is good for a catalog to sell in the first place. It's not like any studio is losing money by releasing catalogs on Blu-ray. So I have to wonder, what exactly makes people say they're not selling well enough? Catalogs have never been major sellers outside of a limited selection of major hits. I just wonder what exactly people were expecting. I've seen the sales tails on catalog titles and they're paltry...they are not mega amazing on DVD, and terrible on Blu-ray. So...I ask to those saying catalog sales are bad...what frame of reference are you using to justify this? Catalogs sales are rarely if ever particularly impressive, and unlike DVD...Blu-ray is giving a bumped tail for old titles but with high margins instead of razor thin ones. I see certain people make these claims, and wonder what exactly they are even basing that on.
Not necessarily. This subject was much discussed in this forum several years ago. The cost to prepare a catalog title for BD is significant — especially if it needs a full restoration — as is the cost to manufacture the discs. If sales are just a few hundred copies, as was the case with some of them, there is no way the studios are making money on that release. Also, time and resouces for putting movies on Blu-ray Discs are limited. Why spend that time and money on a title that will sell poorly when it can be used for a more current release that should sell better?
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Old 01-09-09, 05:38 PM
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Re: Will Blu-ray Survive after 2009?

Originally Posted by lizard
The cost to prepare a catalog title for BD is significant — especially if it needs a full restoration — as is the cost to manufacture the discs.
...but they're doing this work for the DVD release anyway, so depending how you want to tackle the accounting, you can either amortize the cost of remastering across both formats, or you can put those costs solely onto the DVD and think of the Blu-ray disc as using existing assets for pretty hefty margins.
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