According to Blu-ray Disc proponents, detractors like to say that video on demand and digital downloads will kill physical high-def product, that winning the format war with HD DVD and giving consumers one high-def choice is meaningless.

“I’m fond of recalling the old visions of the past that the paperless office would completely obliterate the need for paper,” said Andy Parsons, SVP of advanced product development at Pioneer Electronics and chair of the Blu-ray Disc Association promotion committee in the United States. “It seemed like a very reasonable, logical prediction decades ago that turned out to be completely wrong.”

At a luncheon during the CEDIA Expo Sept. 4, Parsons, several heads of major studio home entertainment divisions and leading Blu-ray experts ran through the numbers, aiming to prove the detractors are off base.

So far about 15 million Blu-ray Discs have been sold, according to Home Media Magazine market research. Thus far in 2008, 8.8 million Blu-ray Discs have been sold, compared to 5.6 million in all of 2007. With Adams Media Research noting that about 60% of all software sales occur in the fourth quarter, optimism is high among studio executives that 2008 will end well for Blu-ray.

“We always use content sales as a great barometer for how we’re doing,” Parsons said. “It’s a very pure number. It’s something real we can look at, and there’s no spinning it.”

On the hardware side, Global Media Intelligence (GMI) shows that for Blu-ray standalone players, Blu-ray is behind DVD compared to the first few years of the DVD format, in terms of household penetration, with 6.5 million players sold in the United States and 5.5 million in Europe. But those figures don’t include sales of the PlayStation 3.

“We honestly don’t know what those PS3 users are doing with their players, but obviously some are watching Blu-rays,” Parsons said.

GMI predicts that by 2011, all forms of electronically delivered video will still only account for roughly 5% of theatrical and home video revenue.

The numbers don’t lie, Parsons said, and the numbers are putting smiles on the faces of studio executives.

“The two can coexist,” said David Bishop, president of Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, about physical and digital media. He added that with studios including digital copies of movies with Blu-ray, they’re giving consumers everything they could possibly want.

“[Digital copy] enables us to have movie or TV content more broadly distributed,” he said. “In terms of ease of use, it’s still skewed toward physical media.”

Steve Feldstein, SVP, corporate and marketing communications, 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, said his studio is considering this fourth quarter the “first fourth quarter” for Blu-ray. “There are no obstacles, no mixed messages for consumers,” he said. “It’s all Blu.”

Chris Fawcett, VP of home video for Sony Electronics, added, “I’ve said time and time again, movie fans won when the industry unified behind Blu-ray. The thing we have to keep in mind is that the consumers aren’t as close to this as we are.”

Craig Kornblau, president of Universal Studios Home Entertainment, relayed a story that highlighted that fact, saying he was discussing Blu-ray with a friend last month. She was under the impression that a format war was still going on.

“Consumer education is critically important, still, for our growth as an industry,” Kornblau said. “It’s a very exciting time for us as a studio, and for all of us as an industry. We’re spending a lot of time and money to see what consumers want.”

Universal had backed HD DVD before the war ended in February, and Kornblau said his company learned much working with Toshiba that’s helping the studio with Blu-ray.

“It’s going to be an interesting fourth quarter,” he said. “If [household] penetration explodes the way we hope, you might see a lot of these titles we’re considering for Blu-ray released a lot quicker than expected.”

Bob Chapek, president of Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment, said everything is going according to his studio’s Blu-ray plan, namely the end of the format war, retailers rallying behind Blu-ray with shelf space and sales education.

“You’re going to see a landslide of great content now in the fourth quarter,” he said. “It’s now about penetration, proving that Blu-ray is the complete DVD replacement.”

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/new...ticle_ID=13448

Breaking news: John McCain says Republicans are better than Democrats. Video at 11:00.

To those of us old enough to remember when set top Beta machines were $1000, the studios were in an outrage because if people can record their own content, the studios will be out of business. There was talk of attempts at outlawing VCR's but the legislation never gained any momentum. The VCR was seen as such a niche product that it wouldn't have an impact. Then when it gained in popularity it would have been impossible to go against the grain. Only then did the studios realize they could make money off it.

I'm kinda ignoring anything they say about the next big thing, or what won't work.

Res ipsa loquitur.....

Thats what the BDA is, a promotion committee. Digital downloads are still a long, long way off, but people in different camps are going to promote their own thing. The weaker team is always going to go the caveat emptor route for the opponent.

The most idiotic aspect of the thing is:

Yeah, what is generally accepted to be the best BD player on the market isn't counted because they can't tell who bought it for what purpose. Genius.

It would be nice if the format was stronger so we wouldn't have pointless articles like this anymore. High hopes for the future.

You're never going to completely kill off people wanting to physically own their media. As fas high def goes, Blu-Ray is going to stick around for some time.

Just so we all know - this is a positive Blu-ray article so we won't see anything broken down and analyzed. It will be taken at face value and high-fives will be given at all the usual forums.

But looking at this quote:

You can see household is being assumed (by the [ ] ), therefore I believe the entire article is false and is in fact speaking about Pizza sauce. Its pretty clear to me.

I was going to post something like this.

I have to agree with the article on a specific point. I remember when the personal computer began to take on backroom discussions. How your computer would be controlled by the government. How paper would be obsolete and how the year 2000 would render the world helpless.

The computer age has actually increased paper usage. We're using more paper than we ever have at any time in history.

I can't help associate the VOD wishful thinking crowd with physical disc realities. VOD will certainly be around, but to what extent it will be viable to everyone, is still questionable.

Physical media, by definition, is meant to be a more permanent solution to storage and collecting. VOD, by definition, is meant to entertain the whimsical minded. Now, just by comparing these two sentences, which format is going to be around longer. Blu-ray media may have to undergo transformations in order to be competitive in the future, but regardless, the physical media will have a much-needed and much-wanted presence.

Some overlook the basic fact our society does not have the infrastructure to be a paperless or disc-less society. While we certainly have little gadgets which pop up every year at major electronics shows, they die out quickly. Some also overlook the fact our society is highly paranoid or highly critical. Which is why physical formats like paper and discs are essential.

I would imagine VOD will become popular in other countries first, like Japan and Europe. If it truly takes on a large percentage of sales and begins to penetrate communities, US households might embrace it more.

I think the worry about VOD comes from what has happened with CDs. It's understandable why Blu-ray may be worried, but I don't ever see VOD taking off like MP3s have done. I think that has more to do with pricing, availability and quality of DVDs/Blu-rays versus CDs. If all physical CDs disappeared tomorrow I don't think too many would care or even notice.

The last CD I bought was a Special Edition Aimee Mann one...before that...well, its been a few years. I simply can't tell the difference between an iTunes MP3 and CD quality...and since CD prices are still incredibly high, and I only wind up listening to 2-3 sound per CD, I found myself not buying CDs anymore.

Yes, I have say, I don't purchase CDs anymore. Of course, I have over a thousand CDs already which I purchased, and I just haven't found the need to expand my listening habits. I use blank CD media to burn favorite tracks when I'm on the road.

But you did nail something I was going to comment on when I saw the word "CD".

Quality of programming.

I don't think anyone can really argue the music industry signed its own death certificate when they continuously lowered the bar on just who was worthy of cutting a track.

With movies, we have a substantial line of sequels and such which will keep the entertainment coming for quite some time. And more sequels and trilogies pop up as well. Harry Potter and Lord Of The Rings certainly kept the movie industry alive and well. As CG becomes more economical and viable in tough rendering scenes which come across as more life-like, the boundaries and visions of writers and directors will be fully realized for movie enthusiasts, basically guaranteeing our movie habits will live on for many years to come.

The difference between iTunes burned to CD and an actual CD is quite noticeable on the right setup. I've done several blind tests in my car and picked them every time.

Now, it may be more obvious on some of the stuff I listen to, but the difference is there. Crash cymbals are an easy place to hear artifacts for example. The dumbing down of audio resolution for the convenience of portability is something I've always been uncomfortable with, and it would suck to see that become the standard with video as well.

My hearing taps out at 192kbps but I rip CDs at max bitrate VBR with the LAME encoder (normally around 300-something).

It's cheaper to buy CDs, especially used, and rip them, than buy mp3s.

Lately we've indulged in a couple of the Amazon DOTD $2.99, $3.99 deals. But MP3s are free of nasty DRM problems and I can copy them to a few different HDDs so I don't lose them in the event of a disk drive failure.