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Downloads Can't Compete With Blu-ray.

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Downloads Can't Compete With Blu-ray.

Old 06-05-08, 06:15 PM
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Downloads Can't Compete With Blu-ray.

http://www.tvpredictions.com/stringer060508.htm

Downloads Can't Compete With Blu-ray.

Last time i checked digital downloads were such a huge flop world wide.
i see more people buying movies in VHS then downloading them digitally.

digital download are not even a threat to dvd, they look and sound like crap, they will never ever be a threat to HD Blu-ray.
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Old 06-05-08, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Shaka2K6
http://www.tvpredictions.com/stringer060508.htm

Downloads Can't Compete With Blu-ray.
No way! The Sony CEO Howard Stringer said this?
Old 06-05-08, 06:31 PM
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Downloads are the inevitable future. As someone who has over 1500 DVDs I have no problem saving shelf space and downloading HD movies onto a hard drive. It's still a few years away and probably some company like Apple will perfect it with some kind of media center box you can purchase. I'm down for downloads.
Old 06-05-08, 06:44 PM
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I'm an avid movie collector with over 2500+ DVDs and around 400+ HD discs. For so many years I've been strongly against downloads. But lately, I'm starting to come around. The idea of having an entire library at your fingertips, and only paying for what you watch, is very appealing. But it'll all depend on price and quality.
Old 06-05-08, 06:52 PM
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Of course, five posts below this one is
"Time Warner Cable tries metering Internet use".

I like owning stuff. I have rented a few "video on demand" things, and I can see the spacesaving and "green" benefits to DD. However, those have to translate to lower prices. I would rather pay 10 bucks for a DVD or CD that is "mine", that I can resell, give away, use remotely, play on multiple devices, than 8-10 dollars for a crippled/limited use digital copy.
As it is, the DVDs I bought from DDD for three bucks last week, I can play them in my living room, in the office, in bed, in the bonus room, on a business trip, in the airport. I certainly don't need instant access to all of my titles at any given time, but to say "These DD titles, you can only watch on this cable-box sized device that's currently hooked to your tv and is a real pain to transfer anywhere."
I know the industry wants us to get into DD, that way they are in more control of the content, but I personally see the consumer giving up more than he gets out of this deal. Even space saving--the average person doesn't have 2500 DVDs, and it's always an option to take the DVD out of the case and store in one of those flip cases.
I think the decision will eventually be taken out of our hands, but I will resist DD's replacement of hard copy content. I have bought some DD before, but I much prefer to have the option.
I also think price has got to be a major factor--for me to really buy into DD, the content has got to be lots cheaper than the physical disk.
Old 06-05-08, 06:52 PM
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Im going to when he launches the download service for the PS3 at E3.
Old 06-05-08, 07:17 PM
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Because...?

Show me where he said that VOD was a horrible idea, or that there was no viable market for it. All he said was that high-def VOD won't be replacing Blu-ray in the United States, since most people don't have the necessary bandwidth to make it convenient.

He didn't say that no one would want it or have the bandwidth to take advantage of it.
Old 06-05-08, 07:27 PM
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Agreed, there is no where near enough bandwidth for the majority of Americans - city dwellers tend to forget about everyone else in the country. I have friends that have no broadband access available today - 10+ years since I got my first Cable modem. I would not consider downloading a HD movie file ever - Cable has not got near the capacity to feed my movie needs.
Old 06-05-08, 08:24 PM
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I think downloads will continue to increase in popularity, but I have no interest in buying digital versions of movies. I like the idea for renting, but the current offerings in HD from the cable networks and through downloads has very poor quality. Too much compression and too many digital artifacts for me to consider it HD. I'll stick with Blu-ray for buying and cheap $1 DVD rentals. I prefer standard DVD to overly compressed HD video.
Old 06-05-08, 09:12 PM
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Not to mention ISP's are charging $1 extra per GB (or more) for going over a "limit". ISPs and HD downloading don't mix. At least not at the moment.
Old 06-06-08, 07:21 AM
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they will never ever be a threat
Wow!
Old 06-06-08, 08:20 AM
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I'd say now that VOD services are starting to get mentioned on commercials for new releases that there should be some cause for concern.

I think that BD will be the last media format before downloads take over without question.

I think there are two big problems right now. One is providing a compelling reason for people to replace their movie collection. Many people are weary of the constant dipping of their favorite movies. Now I think a BD is a signifigant upgrade to a DVD, but it is an uphill climb to educate the masses.

The bigger issue IMO is that the studios and retailers have completely devalues movies. If I saw a CD from my favorite artist on sale for $9 on release week, I'd jump on it. CDs have remained a steady price for a long time. Prices flux a little, but are steady for the most part.

DVDs however get a price drop weeks after release, and in time can be available for $5 or under in a great many cases. Over time, this has conditioned the market to devalue the "going rate" for a DVD. If people value a movie at under $10, how can they expect people to buy into the same movie on BD at $25? I think if they were aggressive with the pricing of BD discs, they could have a shot at supplanting DVD. Right now everyone (studios and CEs) is interested in squeezing as many nickels as possible from BD.
Old 06-06-08, 08:33 AM
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VOD is the future... It may not be the one that we prefer, but its going to continue to gain more and more support. Like others here, I don't like (although I do like it for renting) and Im hoping that a physical media will always be there, but its going to get bigger and bigger regardless if we like it or not.
Old 06-06-08, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Shaka2K6
digital download are not even a threat to dvd, they look and sound like crap, they will never ever be a threat to HD Blu-ray.
Quality might not be as important as most think. MP3 audio is a downgrade from LP and CD yet I don't see mp3 player sales tanking. We live in a generation in which teens spend many hours watching Youtube, cam bootlegs and listening to mp3s and real player.

The movie industry complains time and time again (for good reason) that illegal bootlegs and downloads of films are hurting them, and all of these would be of worse quality then a legal download. Blu Ray (which I own via PS3) is a great technology, but it's not exactly taking off like many hoped it would.
Old 06-06-08, 09:27 AM
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I don't think downloads have a chance with our generation (people who grew up with VHS, Laserdisk, DVD, and now BluRay). We have been buying movies our whole lives, we have been buying CD's our whole lives, so we are accustomed to storage of boxes, and all the stuff that comes with it.

The generation to ask is probably more of people from my nephews generation, as they have grown up probably never buying a CD in their life, and I think they may look at movies the same way when they start buying them when they are older.

It will interesting to see generations collide on these issues, because we are a generation of buying movies, where my parents didn't understand why I needed to buy anything when they are on TV every so often? We will have that same argument with our kids when they say, "Why do you need this big case to hold all your movies, when I can store mine on this harddrive."
Old 06-06-08, 10:34 AM
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When we switch from the web to the drid, we can download a 1080 movie in under 5 minutes, I believe. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_computing
Old 06-06-08, 10:39 AM
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Originally Posted by splattii2
Quality might not be as important as most think. MP3 audio is a downgrade from LP and CD yet I don't see mp3 player sales tanking. We live in a generation in which teens spend many hours watching Youtube, cam bootlegs and listening to mp3s and real player.

The movie industry complains time and time again (for good reason) that illegal bootlegs and downloads of films are hurting them, and all of these would be of worse quality then a legal download. Blu Ray (which I own via PS3) is a great technology, but it's not exactly taking off like many hoped it would.
Exactly. The up and coming consumers don't seem to give a shit about quality or presentation. Kids want compressed MP3s and don't give a rip about having liner notes, cool album covers, or neat packaging. They don't mind watching a movie on a 3 to 7 inch screen (which really boggles my mind) while listening to it thru shitty tiny ear buds.

They just don't care. They want it now, they want it cheap and they want it convenient. That's exactly why I don't see BR or any new physical media taking hold now or in the future. CDs have had nothing to replace them and DVDs came in at time when the above attitude was not running as rampant as it is today. DVDs will survive for the long haul as CDs have, but every new physical format is going to come in second due to this.

And its only going to get worse (or better...depends on your perspective and your attitude).

I used to be a physical media only guy but I have come around to the "downloading thought process" as the last few years have gone by. I just hate it when it affects quality. At least downloading movies will eventually be in HD wth 5.1 or better sound. You can't explain shit to the kids growing up on compressed MP3s with tiny earbuds. The music issue of the future bothers me much more than the movie issue.
Old 06-06-08, 10:41 AM
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I do think you guys are off a bit on comparing this with MP3s. Far more people can see a difference in PQ from VHS to DVD than can hear a difference in CD to MP3. And most times listening to music is a passive activity when you are on the bus, walking, etc. where watching a show is rarely passive.
Old 06-06-08, 10:50 AM
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Originally Posted by kvrdave
I do think you guys are off a bit on comparing this with MP3s. Far more people can see a difference in PQ from VHS to DVD than can hear a difference in CD to MP3. And most times listening to music is a passive activity when you are on the bus, walking, etc. where watching a show is rarely passive.
But that's my point. If this generation is used to getting something like MP3s thru downloads with no packaging and inferior quality, why would it stop with downloading movies with no packaging but similar or same quality as a BR disc?

I know it's not the exact same quality as a BR now but you can download HD movies thru your Xbox right now...and they look great.

I think the comparison to what has happened to the music industry (physical media wise) to what may happen to the movie industry is quite apt.
Old 06-06-08, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by brianluvdvd
Exactly. The up and coming consumers don't seem to give a shit about quality or presentation. Kids want compressed MP3s and don't give a rip about having liner notes, cool album covers, or neat packaging. They don't mind watching a movie on a 3 to 7 inch screen (which really boggles my mind) while listening to it thru shitty tiny ear buds.

They just don't care. They want it now, they want it cheap and they want it convenient. That's exactly why I don't see BR or any new physical media taking hold now or in the future. CDs have had nothing to replace them and DVDs came in at time when the above attitude was not running as rampant as it is today. DVDs will survive for the long haul as CDs have, but every new physical format is going to come in second due to this.

And its only going to get worse (or better...depends on your perspective and your attitude).

I used to be a physical media only guy but I have come around to the "downloading thought process" as the last few years have gone by. I just hate it when it affects quality. At least downloading movies will eventually be in HD wth 5.1 or better sound. You can't explain shit to the kids growing up on compressed MP3s with tiny earbuds. The music issue of the future bothers me much more than the movie issue.
Exactly, kids are reflection of the times, and downloading is the thing of the future. I know I won't embrace as much as my nephew, but this is all he knows. To give a perspective, just think of the old days of movies coming to VHS or HBO, sometimes it took years, and we waited because that was the way things were back then. My favorite movie was Star Wars when I was growing up, I saw it a few times in 1977, and then it didn't come to HBO til 1983, that is 6 whole years to see it again!!! Now kids can't wait 6 months for a new movie, but as I said, it is just a reflection of the times, and the newer generations will be quicker to embrace stuff like this then older people like us.
Old 06-06-08, 01:19 PM
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I think some sort of physical media, maybe not Blu-ray, will be around for quite a while. It may not be the dominant format, but I think there will always be collectors out there, people who want to hold something in their hands.

I recently read an article, I think it was in Spin, about how many people are predicting that the only music formats that will survive will be downloads and LPs. Now, I realize that's music not film, but I think the point still remains. While it is still a very niche market, LP sales have actually grown in recent years, meaning more people in this younger generation are adopting an older technology because the medium has more warmth in its sound than a CD or a digital download.

Interesting ready, and it made sense, too, in a lot of ways. But I think it can apply to movies and TV shows as well. In the future, there might always be a greater demand for downloads, but there will always be a core niche, a very devoted and dedicated one, that will desire something warmer, something tangible.
Old 06-07-08, 02:47 AM
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The only downloads I've gotten were priced what they were worth: FREE. If I have to pay for it, I want an actual disc.
Old 06-07-08, 07:59 AM
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I've had 2 computers go bad on me in the last 5 years, and I have yet to recover my music and picture files from them.

There's no way in hell I'm PAYING for movies just to store them on my hard drive! If the computer or hard drive goes bad, all that money goes down the drain.

And I'm not into VOD. I don't want to pay to watch the movie every time I watch it. I want to pay for it once and be done with it. That's why I rarely rent movies.

So that leaves me, long term, with my existing DVD's and Blu Rays. I'm fine with that. I love DVD and Blu Ray.

I think that our generation will be stubborn and not make the switch - not entirely, anyway. Some people will inevitably switch, maybe even half of the generation, but that will leave a large enough market for the studios to continue producing Blu Ray discs in 15 years (I'll bet the Blu Ray market in 15 years is at least 3 or 4 times as big as the LaserDisc market was circa 1992).

And the biggest problem I see with downloaded movies is that you can only watch them on the one TV connected to said hard drive. It removes the portability. With DVD/Blu Ray you can watch it on any TV in the house (most people have a DVD player, and likely a Blu Ray player a few years from now, hooked up to every TV in the house).

For me, and I suspect a majority of people over 25 (or certainly 30), downloads just have too much downside to waste the money on them.
Old 06-07-08, 05:17 PM
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Please don't take this the wrong way, but I'm getting pretty tired of people posting MSRPs of BDs and sale prices (often loss leader sale prices) of DVDs as proof of a DVD/Blu-ray price disparity.

Can No Country be found on DVD for $15.99? Sure it can. But the BD can also be found quite easily (I just did a 10-second search at Amazon) for $21.95. That's only a $6 difference. And it can be bought used for $14.

If you want to make a comparison chart of VOD vs DVD vs BD, that's fine. But please be honest in your figures:

No Country for Old Men

VOD - $5.99
DVD - $15.99
DVD (used) - $8.89 (on Amazon)
Blu-ray - $21.95
Blu-ray (used) - $14.00 (on Amazon)
Old 06-07-08, 05:40 PM
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He's in Canadia, so maybe that makes for the difference.

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