http://hardware.slashdot.org/hardwar.../0432256.shtml

That is all any of us on that side of the debate have been trying to say.

YES, the format war contributed to lower prices. HOWEVER, I think that some of that was actually harmful, because it created a mindset and an expectation (almost a sense of entitlement) that is unsustainable in the short-term, and now many people are demanding that it either continue, or else! (Or else what, I still haven't quite figured out)

In the long-term, Blu-ray player and software prices will continue to decrease, and even by the end of the year, I would bet that many of the naysayers will be very pleasantly surprised at what is available.

Sony = Betamax to most people? Who would that be, exactly? I'm willing to bet most people don't even remember Betamax.

I agree. It is way too soon to see/say what the impact of all this is on pricing.

I agree here too. Sony=Playstation to most people if I had to play the brand association game.

I just saw a very cryptic post from one of the insiders at AVS. It sounds like the announcement may be coming at 5 pm Tokyo time, which would be midnight PST. I don't know any more than that, though.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080218/...hiba_nand_dc_1


Chris

Tell that to me dad. He's still got that thing in the garage somewhere with a few movies :lol:

As for people remembering, the media has been comparing this format war to the VHS/Beta one many times over the past 2 years.

That would be midnight like today/tonight, right?

Sounds about right as the 35 or so different reports posted here have been saying Tuesday.

Yep, midnight tonight for west coasters, later for the rest of us. I just learned that Toshiba has scheduled a press conference for that time, and the assumption is that the purpose of the event is to announce both their withdrawal from HD DVD, and some other more positive items to help encourage their shareholders.

I never owned a Betamax, but the one I borrowed from a good friend was a very nice machine for its day, better than the VHS machine I had just purchased. My friend was trying to convince me to come over to the Beta side, and I almost did.

I fully expect Toshiba to pull out and Paramount to announce something Blu tomorrow. Mao even sorta hinted at this in "There will be Blood" thread to wait until Tuesday for final artwork/details...hmmm....Or maybe he was just talking about something else :lol:

Tokyo (JST)

<iframe src="http://free.timeanddate.com/clock/iwdkjjg/n248" frameborder="0" width="82" height="18"></iframe>

Any speculation as to why they would wait until the very end of the business day to release the official announcement? I don't usually follow such things, so I don't know if that is standard procedure for "negative" type of announcements, but it just seems odd to me to basically say "we're done" and then go home. It leaves almost no opportunity for "same-day" comment from Toshiba, or from other (former) partners.

'Tis true I was using Sony and Blu-ray interchangably in this discussion, not because I think that they are the same or that Sony called all the shots but because I think that Sony has that much influence. For example, if Sony really wanted to have a BOGO sale for one week each month for all of 2008, then I'm pretty sure that it will happen.

True. Sony doesn't equal Betamax. But in the game of "What company comes to your mind first?":

Betamax = Sony.
MiniDisc = Sony.
Blu-ray = Sony.
VHS = JVC.
HD DVD = Toshiba.
Tissue = Kleenex.
Copy Machine = Xerox.

Or something like that.

I did a little research and I think you're speaking of this 2 for $25 deal Fry's ran in late June:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=868248

Which wasn't a true BOGO, nor was it availale online to those not near a Fry's.

Again, I believe the BOGOs were not as common or as widespread as some remember. Yeah they happened, particularly in Q4. But it wasn't like they happened every week the netire year.

2 for $25 is pretty much a Buy 1 Get 1 free since the MSRP for those titles were $19.99-$24.99. Even better, Fry's computers can't even do those type of promotions properly, so they were just 50% off. You could buy numerous Blu-ray movies for $9.99-$12.49. Ahh, the good ol' times.

Toshiba is (I think) working on two memory/RAM factories and one $300 Billion Yen LCD manufacturing plant. The latter, is comprised of Toshiba, Hitachi, and I think Matsushita. Not sure if each company put in the same $$$ but the three went in on the LCD plant together.

It's fairly common in the business world. It keeps negative news from having an immediate impact on the stock market.

Well, you're wrong. You're assuming just because someone like me and others are raising flags about higher prices, that it somehow means we are "sour grapes losers". Far from. I'm fucking excited about getting HD DVDs for cheap. I do wonder about combo players, but I think all of us HD DVD users will be fine.

Comments I make are not sour grapes. It's simple experience and other economics which play into this. You now have a single format which movie studios are now, more than likely, gathering together to make some profiting plans. They know the competition is over.

First off, we don't know what Sony and all the movie studio plans are regarding making profits. However, if you look back to DVD in 1997, how long did DVDs stay at a premium? Were movie studios busting out prices so all consumers could afford them? Nope. In fact, I remember paying premiums on DVDs for quite some time. If you weren't a member of Columbia House or a few other outlets, you always paid a premium. Otherwise, DVD was for the latest tech folk, who forked out big bucks to get it. But it sure as hell wasn't a carnivale, where everyone was invited. You had to pay.

Now, you're telling me the movie studios have amazingly done an about-face and welcome all consumers to an even higher-quality format, which is going to be very affordable from here on out.

And I still don't understand why and how Blu-ray is going to directly compete with DVD. We have a lot of DVDs to put on HD. Anime DVDs are only starting to hit HD, and I can't see every single Anime DVD being Blu-ray in a year. Just won't happen. Not enough time.

DVD upconverters are taking a nice chunk out of the HD sector because we actually have marketing which says it's "about the same" or "Just as good" as HD. We also have, believe it or not, a large majority of the DVD market who don't want HD altogether. They are content with what they have, and don't have an HDTV just yet. We're still talking several years of upgrading the consumer, and you think movie studios want to hang around and still only make minimal profits? They lost their asses over the last few years. And they want their money. Sony, apparently promised them just that. So, what excactly, is my question, did Sony promise them?

I do commend you on your peachy outlook, though. Because I'm planning to invest in Blu-ray this time next year. I figure we should know within a year as to the plans for Blu-ray's future. I'm not as positive as some would like me to be. And I apologize for coming off as anti-Blu-ray. Because I'm not. I just don't like Sony. And I know how they operate--from experience. So, the only thing I can say to this is time will tell. Maybe Sony, with its new execs, are doing a complete 180 on my past experience. That would be great. I would celebrate Blu-ray alongside everyone else. Because it's about HD, not about sour grapes over a competitor who lost.

Sure, they can press Blu-ray discs all night long (all night) and all day if they want to. But what does this mean? If movie studios had the demand for both formats, you think they would be complaining? Nope. We know HD DVD had around 40% (or more but not more than 50%) of the HD demand, so given those stats, why would a movie studio be complaining?

I'll tell you why. Because with two formats competiting against each other, the studios knew every fucking title that went out their warehouse door, Blu-ray or HD DVD, would be heavily discounted because of BOGOs and other promotions. Hell, we probably had studio execs getting ulcers over the fact. They probably were cursing in ten different languages when they heard the "C" word. Competition.

But now with HD DVD gone. All Blu-ray equipment in the pressing lines. No choice of any other notable HD format (we're talking hard copy here--not downloads). What do you see as happening?

If HD DVD would have "won", I'd still be commenting like this about the prices and how I would be very concerned with what the future would hold.

Some will respond that there is competition in the HD sector which negates my entire argument. I simply don't agree. There is no HD hard format which is now competiting. Blu-ray is it. For the moment.

I will add something. :D

My DVD collection didn't increase dramatically until prices dropped dramatically. So, I will certainly agree, we could see a steady price of Blu-ray titles for several years, but then a decrease, allowing consumers to purchase more. So, in theory, this Blu-ray format would parallel the DVD format. Possible, but would certainly suck because I'd have to wait to have a collection.

Just my thoughts. Not accusations per se, but some serious questions I have about the future of HD. High-Def.

Do bassoonists, ever for fun, slip a little cork grease in the Vaseline? You know, for kicks? And then impress the ladies with their ambiture??

So then you are conveniently forgetting about the $150 million Toshiba pushed at Paramount/Dreamworks to swing in the HD-DVD swisheroonie?

Cmon now, in for a penny, in for a pound...

Look, those kind of business practices are standard operating procedure for the competitive free market world. This is nothing new, nothing illegal, nothing immoral, and nothing out of the ordinary. The way people keep bringing it up like BDA did some kind of "sneaky tactic" is ludicrous at best, extremely ignorant at worst.

But are you conveniently forgetting the "money" paid out to Lionsgate and Disney in early 07 to remain Blu-ray exclusive? What about Fox on 1/3/2008 to stick with Blu-ray? Warner the day after? All are "rumored" but too many people have some-what confirmed this happened. Just because the HD DVD one (Paramount) was well publicized does not mean it was the only one that happened.

I agree to some extent. However, did you read my Erik Hansen reference on here regarding his knowledge of HD DVD? He owns BlueRay Technologies up in Spokane, WA. He says HD DVD is only 1080i, and has less capacity than Blu-ray...which is why Blu-ray is better.

Now, I'm not sure where he came up with the 1080i part of HD DVD movies (unless he read about a few HD DVD players which only output 1080i but this wasn't 100% for all HD DVD players), and capacity is one major marketing theme which has been driven home for years, but this guy owns a manufacturing plant and is spreading this kind of misinformation.

Have we had any CEO who owned a manufacturing plant and favored HD DVD and said these kinds of things about Blu-ray?

If anything, it was Toshiba's lack of spreading disinformation like this which cost them the HD trophy. Sony did a damn good job. And I'm serious. They really did well.