Current state of affairs of format war (where do we go from here?)
#51
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I don't have a rooting interest either way. I couldn't care less if HD-DVD or BD wins the war. I just know that one will. And from what I see right now, HD-DVD is taking the steps that lead to victory, though there is still plenty of time for the tide to change. I'm just telling you what I see. Backing by studios doesn't mean much. They can change horses midstream, and WOULD if they thought BD wasn't going to have the player market saturation to move their discs.
In five years, SD-DVD will be in about the same place in the market as VHS is now, and a SINGLE HD format will have at least 80% of the market. Write that down, put it in your wallet, and in 2012 pull it out and see that I'm right. If there are really so many that don't realize that this is inevitable, I should start a website and take bets on it. I could retire in 5 years. In the long term, HD-DVD and BD coexisting as anywhere near equals is not a plausible scenario. And SD-DVD remaining the standard for more than another 3-5 years is not a plausible scenario either.
In five years, SD-DVD will be in about the same place in the market as VHS is now, and a SINGLE HD format will have at least 80% of the market. Write that down, put it in your wallet, and in 2012 pull it out and see that I'm right. If there are really so many that don't realize that this is inevitable, I should start a website and take bets on it. I could retire in 5 years. In the long term, HD-DVD and BD coexisting as anywhere near equals is not a plausible scenario. And SD-DVD remaining the standard for more than another 3-5 years is not a plausible scenario either.
Last edited by MrDs10e; 11-04-07 at 03:55 AM.
#52
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While I'd like to agree with your prophesy of the future, I'm not quite sure that DVDs will be a primary concern in 2012.
Members are already starting to plan- http://forum.dvdtalk.com/showthread....highlight=2012
Members are already starting to plan- http://forum.dvdtalk.com/showthread....highlight=2012
#54
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Originally Posted by lizard
I don't buy the notion that this move by Toshiba is some sort of death blow to BD. I don't see Sony giving up (after all they will have millions of Blu-ray capable PS3s in homes) and Fox and Disney seem pretty solid also. Toshiba is fighting for the life of its HD DVD format, with BD having had the better year thus far. My guess is that the best Toshiba can hope for is coexistence. That would be fine with me.
Sony does have millions of BD capable PS3s in homes, but they also have tons of UMD capable PSPs in homes too, but studio support has dried up. Sony (Columbia Tri-Star) will support BD to the bitter end. It will be interesting to see if a larger installed base becomes too enticing for BD studios to ignore. This comes on the heels of BD's holy grail of copy protection being broken open.
This format war is far from over.
#55
Originally Posted by MrDs10e
In the long term, HD-DVD and BD coexisting as anywhere near equals is not a plausible scenario. And SD-DVD remaining the standard for more than another 3-5 years is not a plausible scenario either.
Nah, it isn't that one. But seriously, the question is, let's say HD DVD "wins". Do you think Sony is going to start making HD DVDs? Fat chance. I suspect they'll give the middle finger to consumers and if they do, the titles will sell for $50. I just don't see Sony rolling over just because HD DVD is declared a winner. It would make things very frustrating for the rest of us.
Blu-ray has penetrated a large audience, and so has HD DVD, so both formats will be around after the December 31, 2007.
Also, we haven't heard the response from Sony in regards to discounting PS3's. And for BD movies, they might even do a B1G2 Free promotion. Sony has money, and they have room to play.
#56
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I'm not saying Sony doesn't have money, but another year like this year for Sony and it could mean trouble for the company as a whole, not just the BD/VG divisions. PS3 caused huge losses for the company. It will be interesting to see how far they will go to win.
#57
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Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
I'm not saying Sony doesn't have money, but another year like this year for Sony and it could mean trouble for the company as a whole, not just the BD/VG divisions. PS3 caused huge losses for the company. It will be interesting to see how far they will go to win.
#59
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Originally Posted by tonymontana313
Plus consoles are always sold at a loss if I'm not mistaken. Microsoft still hasn't seen a penny from the gen 1 and gen 2 Xbox.
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Originally Posted by Anubis2005X
Hey thanks for the FUD. If any format is considered niche, it's HD-DVD. A format that has hardware support from like one major company, and doesn't have the support of Disney, Fox, or Columbia Tristar.
#61
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Originally Posted by llandros
I seem to recall that Disney and Fox were major holdouts back in 1997 when they supported that other format, DIVx over DVD.
#63
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Just choose one and go. I chose Blu Ray, b/c currently they have the titles I enjoy most-Disney, Sony, Anchor Bay...
I am only buying certain titles that I truely like and will benefit from HD. I still buy plenty of SDVD.
I am only buying certain titles that I truely like and will benefit from HD. I still buy plenty of SDVD.