Burnt Thru

to see the way media sales are going to go in the future take a look in the tv stores of today. most have shifted their focus to highdef, which in itself indicates this is the direction people are taking when they replace their tvs. highdef media is not guarenteed to follow logically on from this, but is certainly extremely likely. when you consider that all highdef players are also dvd players it's virtually certain that ce manufacturers will start to phase out their dvd only players once these decks reach a certain price point. at that stage joe public will be buying into these new formats in two important ways (tv + player) regardless of their initial intentions. it's possible that some will continue to only buy dvds for their new set-up, but it's also likely that others will switch to new media. this change seems pretty inevitable.

Qui Gon Jim

Backwards compatibility is a double edged sword. Why release a product for BD when the potential audience is, and will likely always be, smaller than the potential audience for a DVD release of the same product?

In the case of "logic", I think the comparison to the HD audio formats is apt. With HTIB becoming more ubiquitous, it made logical sense that a newer, higher-fidelity audio format would take off as well. Probably would have if the alternative technology (iTunes etc.) had not come along.

Now some will say that VOD has no chance. Some say it is the future. I believe it is in the middle, with most casual sales and rentals moving over to VOD and BD surviving, but more as an enthusiast format.

What remains to be seen is if the general person values picture quality over convenience.

namja

What do you think that price point would be? $150? $100? $50? They will not stop making $50 DVD players (when HD players are still $200. That's too much a gap. Even when HD players are $99, they'll still sell SD players for $39. There's too much money to be made. Same with DVD movie sales. If it ever comes to a point where DVDs and HDMs are selling at a 50:50 ratio, do you think they'll stop selling DVDs? Absolutely, positively not.

In terms of retail space, my local Wal-Mart in San Diego only carries Blu-ray Discs, no HD DVD discs. The BDs are at the end caps but they are all locked up. (All the Wii games are locked up too, but none of the PS3 or Xbox 360 games are locked up.) Everything's kinda weird.

By niche, I think it'll be like Mac vs. PC. The masses will own PCs (DVD) but the niche will be really excited about the Mac (HDM). Something like that.

Burnt Thru

one day even dvd will no longer be produced, just as vhs has almost entirely gone away. for the forseeable future i suspect the major ce manufacturers will start to phase dvd players out far sooner than some on here expect. these organisations make a wide range of dvd players, because there is a market for players at a variety of price points. the higher priced models will be the first to go, with a steady trickle down to the lower priced devices.

incidentally i doubt much profit is being made by members of the dvd forum on dvd players priced in the $39 range. chinese ce's get away with those prices by neglecting to pay proper licensing, which is not something the likes of panasonic can get away with.

Burnt Thru

why would ford sell a jaguar (when they still owned that marque) when most of their market wanted mondeos? because there are different markets to satisfy, with a degree of overlap between the two. in a similar vein why did anyone manufacture dvd players or sell dvds when vhs was in a similarly dominant position over the upstart format? maybe because they could sense a short term profit and anticipate a long term transition.

Qui Gon Jim

I don't think that comparison works too well.

Here's a better one:

Let's not talk about the cars (players) let's talk about the gas (discs) people buy for them.
We know that gas comes in several grades. There is certainly a certain set of consumers that always buy the recommended grade of fuel for their cars (people who buy every release on BD and no longer buy DVD) and there are certainly people who buy the better grade when they see a good price on it (bargain hunters). I would guess that the majority of people will buy the least expensive grade because it works well enough for them.

Of the three grades of gas, I am sure the cheapest grade sells best. It may not work as good as the higher grades, but the consumer is willing to sacrifice some quality for price.

We will see if the average consumer thinks that the blu colored gas is worth the premium price.

GreenMonkey

If you are a one-format person with no investment in the dead format - not much. If you currently have both formats the benefit is obvious - no worries about keeping an outdated player onhand for your existing titles.

As a side benefit: smaller studios and niche releases could use HD-DVD that are region-free (so they can sell worldwide) and also without paying for AACS copy protection. Studios could use whichever format they preferred.

I really expected the war to drag on for another year or two and make dual-format players the future - just like the DVD+/-R situation ended up. The Warner changeover made that unlikely, though.

Josh Z

Why would it bother you for both formats to survive and thrive? What harm would it be to you? Why do you care so much that there be only one?

As opposed to your incontrovertible facts, which are not at all based on conjecture or speculation?

Josh Z

Most people who buy HDTVs do so because they want a large screen or a flat screen, and have no interest in or understanding of High Definition. Surveys have shown that more than half the HDTV owners out there assume that any crap signal fed into their TV is automatically High Definition already.

cardaway

I would take that a step futher. I think very soon you will not even able to buy anything else unless you go used. Not even sure if the places I frequent haven't already phased out standard tube TV's, but I admit I have't looked closely in over a year.

RoboDad

Wow, not only did you evade my question, but you even managed to turn it into a double-pronged attack on me. Nice.

I will, however, answer your question, despite your unwillingness or inability to answer mine. I care because, unlike you, I don't think that the "evil" format war keeping people from greater format adoption is a fantasy. I think the belief that the formats can coexist and be successful long-term is pure fantasy.

IN MY OPINION, the longer the war continues (and by that I mean, the longer two formats exist), the less likely we are to ever see the level of deep catalog title availability that would make HDM desirable to me. I don't just want the latest day-and-date titles. I want classics. And it has already been shown that with the market this small, those titles sell incredibly poorly. That much IS incontrovertible fact. If things stay as they have been, then I will see no value in keeping either format, and I'll just go back to DVD (or start renting from VOD, and give up on collecting altogether).

RoboDad

In the short run those benefits may have value for a very small number of people, but I am talking about the long term, the big picture. To be honest, I don't care whether a small number of people get their noses out of joint over losing some titles on a "dead" format (despite the repeated claim made by those same people that their players and discs will work fine for a long, long time), if it ensures a greater chance if wide adoption, and deeper mining of the vast catalog of titles available.

nmr1723

I'd like to see some recent survey's done on this topic (not saying your data isn't recent). I did a quick search and couldn't find any information.

I only question this because HD is being shoved down our throats in commercials lately (cable and satellite) and advertised at most of the Big Box electronic stores. I'm a TW cable subscriber and I don't know how many times I've seen the DirecTV "we have more HD channels than cable" commercial. I believe Best Buy will not only sell you the set, but they are also trying to get you to purchase the HD service with DirecTV, etc. This has to make people at least question whether or not they actually have or are able to receive HD service.

Maybe people are that misinformed, but I think we are getting more and more educated about HD programming everyday.

My opinion is that most of these people will want to get the most out of their big expensive HDTV and dip into HD media at some time in the near future...but I could be very very wrong.

namja

Absolutely not. One day, DVDs may no longer be produced, but not in the same fashion VHS went away. As someone said earlier (much earlier in another thread), the DVDs will probably go extinct around the same time HD discs will go extinct, for whatever reason that may be.


I think it's fantasy to think that the format war is keeping the HDM from adoption. It's a secondary reason (and a distant second at that). The primary reason is the price. This much IS incontrovertible fact ... if you believe in market research.

Josh Z

You haven't answered the question asked. You've bait-and-switched to answer another question entirely.

From your earlier post:

In this Utopian, hippy-dippy, peace-and-love, everyone-just-gets-along, purple world you are yearning for, where all players are dual format, and every title is released on both formats.

In this scenario, where all titles are released on both formats and all players are dual-format, why then would you care so much about one being a "winner"?

Your stance makes no sense. Consider this:

Let's say that in 2008 there will be 100 movies released that you want to own. Because HDM remains a niche, only 20 of them are available in High Definition. The other 80 are only available on regular DVD. What you're saying is that you wouldn't want those 20 in HD at all. You'd rather just dump HD entirely and watch all 100 of them on DVD? Why? What twisted logic is there in that? If you can have some of them in High Definition, why wouldn't you embrace that?

It seems to me that you don't care much about having any movies in High Definition quality. It doesn't really matter to you and you could just as easily go back to DVD at the drop of a hat. In which case, why bother investing in it at all? If you're really that fickle, I see no point in your continuing this charade. Why post here in such heated argument that only one format must survive, when really you don't care at all if either of them survive anyway?

GreenMonkey

http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6495849.html

nmr1723

Thanks GreenMonkey.

That is one big fat bummer of a report...and yes, I WAS very very wrong

Trevor

I think you're right, although not as distant as you think.

But price is the #1 answer no question. Right now we have deal shoppers like us averaging less than $5 per SD, but still about $15 for HDM. I'd rather have three SDs than one HD. The difference isn't quite as huge for J6P, but still at least two to one.

I would think the price difference would have to be non-existent or very negligible for HDM sales to see significant growth.

RoboDad

I did answer the question. Let me do it again. Even in that Utopian world, I don't think either format would reach the level of mass adoption to allow enough growth in catalog titles to make it worthwhile for me to own them. That is my answer to your question. It was no evasion. Yet you have STILL failed to answer my question. I wonder why.

Oh, and I don't care, at all, whether my reasons make sense to you. You don't govern my spending habits or decisions, I do. In your preferred world, HDM player and media prices will remain at a significant premium over DVD. Do I prefer HD over SD? Of course. Do I prefer it enough to continue to pay twice the price for it long-term? Absolutely not.

chanster

This feeds into the VOD question filling the HD DVD void.

At $129 or so I was willing to invest in HD DVD player for purposes of upconversion and maybe pick up a few catalog titles that I know I will sit down and watch. The rest of the HD DVD titles I would Netflix and do Comcast On Demand.

Now that feel that HD DVD is severly limited by studio decisions, I can either (1) do nothing (i.e. buy no new HD DVD titles) and upconvert, and use Comcast on Demand, (no cost with sub) and Netflix or (2) buy a new Blu Ray player, upconvert and use Comcast on Demand (no cost with sub)

I just don't care enough to spend $500 or so on a new machine. I only bought an HD DVD player because it was cheaper than an upconverting player (which I needed since I just got an HDTV)

DVD Polizei

Well, that reason has to do with support for blank media. You can't possibly think most of the DVD media sold today is because people just want to make backups of computer files. It also has to do with making backups of your movies. So, the blank media sector and the movie sector compliment each other. You know it. I know it. The movie industry knows it. We just don't like to talk about it that much.

Now, when DVDs go extinct, it will be because the consumer has found another medium and is confident in storing all their backup information, on another format, which can be accessed with ease. This is very conditional, so we may see media around for decades to come, only higher, more dense discs which can store more information.

But the big deal sealer, is the consumer is going to need to access their backup information and view it over several different electronic mediums, like we do today: PC, portable CD/DVD drives, laptops, Home Theater DVD players, CD players, vehicle playback/access, etc.

And consequently, there will need to be the complimentary consumerism we see today with movies and blank media.

GreenMonkey

You can always just Netflix discs for now. HD-DVD / BD are way better in my experience than HD movies on Dish - be it HDNET, Universal HD, etc. They tend to be bitrate starved and pixelate - something you'll probably never see on disc. I know cable is a bit better here than Satellite but still.

Burnt Thru

i didn't mean to imply that dvd will become obselete in the same manner as vhs, simply that it too would eventually no longer be a mainstream product. as to the longevity of the format that's a matter of unknowable speculation.

if half of hdtv owners are already using their sets for hd programing that represents a pretty large market right off the bat. and that's before the years of marketing that will inevitable be cranked up from here forward have done their trick of persuading even more consumers to switch to hd. 13%, 20%, 25% - at what point does it stop being a niche market...?

Burnt Thru

that analogy doesn't really work in my opinion. the perceptible performace improvement from using a different grade of petrol is very slight and not really noticable. i hope few on here would suggest that the difference from sd to hd is as miniscule!

a more apt analogy is that between vhs to dvd. certainly the added convenience of not having to rewind provided an added incentive in that instance, but even leaving that aside there was still a decision for consumers to make regarding upgrading to a more expensive system/media vs staying with the tried and tested. some have said that the improvement this time is less noticable (though here in the uk i'd argue the opposite - pal/ntsc differences) but that simply means a lower percentage will switch at any given time, not that very few will ever switch. i suspect that by 2010 the highdef marketshare will be around 10%-15% of the sd market, and may well explode after that.

Adam Tyner

Closing for length.

The most recent posts have been split off into a new thread.