I think three year is reasonable... It took dvd five years or so, but that's b/c it's revolutionarly new, i.e. from VHS to DVD. However, the same amount of time doesn't apply for HD formats. People already introduced with dvd concepts, HD is just one level up. Think about it, the players and remote control options are basically same, only the format is different (same looking disc).

Call Sony arrogance all you want, but the trend is leaning that direction regardless. What's important for Sony at the moment is to take much share of the HD community as possible. Launching the PS3 is a smart move for BR. Aggressive push of new BR releases are putting BR ahead too.

I just don't see the incensive of owning a HD dvd player when you can get a PS3 to play BRs. Perhaps HD dvds offer more extras or something? Even that, no biggies, most people just watch the movie, i used to watch dvd extras when dvds were at its peak, but right now? I just don't have the times, hell, i don't even have times to watch the movie, so why the hell should i waste more times watching extras.

I don't see Auto Manufacturers switching to another format for the DVD entertainment system. There is no visual benefit to HD/BRD on such a small screen. The same would apply to Notebook and Desktop PCs.
If Sony's so sure BRD will surplant DVD in 3 years then I suppose they will be releasing players that are not backwards compatible with DVD? I mean why put in the extra technology for a dying format?
My home has 4 DVD's players in 4 rooms. Although I want to get a BRD player by EOY for the theater room, I can't justify the expense of changing out the players in the kids rooms. If the player's die in a few years and a BRD player is dirt cheap then sure.

...which is precisely why I don't think Blu-ray (or HD DVD) could possibly replace DVDs in three years.

Exactly...the visual difference between DVD and HD formats are just not as evident as VHS to DVD was.

The auto example is very nice.... well, if the screens in cars are small to start with, they should have use UMD format instead. Of course, they didn't b/c UMD discs don't play at home on the bigger screen.

The post about replacing players, i can see that as a problem as well. Yes, i don't wanna upgrade the dvd players in the kid's room, no point. So, it seems that dvd is adquate for most movie watching situations.

Yeah, by factoring the fact that most people are contend with dvd, i don't see why they would want HD format...

This means dvd will not go away for a while, but i think it will... I'm pretty sure the future BR or HD dvd players will support dvd play back. Kinda like the combo machine that plays VHS and dvd now (yike, i hate the size of those players!) But instead of a slot for VHS, there's one tray (or no tray) for the disc, the machine will sort out whether the disc is dvd or BR/HD dvd.

Yeah, i take it back, three years is pretty short for BR/HD dvd to replace dvds...

Bologna!

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but look at the resolution difference between VHS & DVD and then DVD & HD. You'll see it's a much bigger jump up to HD from DVD. But it's even more plain to see with your own eyes IMHO.

HD has a bigger jump in resolution, but the big problem with VHS was with the technology. All the extra junk the tapes put in the image is not a problem with DVD. I think that is the reason people noticed a bigger difference between DVD and VHS.

It's not bologna at all.

I have a 71in DLP set professionally calibrated. Some hd-dvds and bluray titles, I cant tell a big difference (if any) to standard upconverted DVD (in the same player, A2).

Now, if I were to hook up a VHS to my tv and compare DVD to VHS, it would be laughable.

Joe Blow Consumer won't be able to tell a big difference in video/audio. I guarantee it.

We are destined for a Laser Disc type market IMO.

I'm curious as I do not own anything HD, but for those of you with a HD-TV smaller than 42", do you see any significant difference between a Blu-ray as opposed with upconverted SD? My brother-in-law who owns a 37" 1080p HD-TV and played a Blu-ray disc on a PS3 says the visual difference is not all that significant. Maybe with a bigger screen, there will be a noticeable difference.

I have a 32" LCD 1080i TV and I can see the difference. It is not as obvious as the jump from VHS to DVD however.

Well, before I take his word for it, I'd make sure he has it connected and configured properly. I'd also find out how far he's sitting back, and which title he was playing.

Well, i don't know about upscaled dvd vs HD formatted dvd, but i do know that Star War Revenge of the Seth look really good in HD broadcast vs standard broadcast. HUGE different, something you don't need professional calibration to realize. Oh yeah, the TV is a 40 something inch LCD (someone's else house, the guy gave me a demo).

Bored at work, and stumbled across this at USA Today

Sony, Microsoft battle for control of your living room

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/gaming/...t_N.htm?csp=34

...The red-rock vistas in The Searchers viewed on the 360's HD DVD player and the PS3's Blu-ray drive were comparable...

...For movies such as Kingdom of Heaven and Superman Returns, the Blu-ray player provides video as good as or better than any HD movies seen so far, whether via broadcast, satellite or disc...

Yeah.....Guess Im wasting money on HD-DVD, and HD Cable :)

They would have a hard time ousting HD-DVD, never mind DVD.

I agree, and I don't think the point I was trying to make came through. PS3 sales are slipping a bit and that could affect long-term sales numbers for BD.

Im surprised by the lack of games for the PS3. I thought by now there would be alot of good games for the PS3. So far, I own none.

By this time for the 360, I owned at least 3 or 4 good titles. I seriously dont forsee the PS3 overtaking the 360 this year. I dont think sales of the PS3 will change much.

Yeah, I was gonna post something along this line. Upconverting of DVDs may be a "problem" for BD and HD DVD. The upconversion is (can be) so good that most people can't tell much of a difference.

Three years is a bit of a stretch. Unless by the end of 2007: HD DVD folds, Sony sells players for $99, BD movies cost less than DVDs ... and a few other things that we can :lol: at ... or -rolleyes- at ...