Do you think Blu-Ray/HD-DVD sales (or whichever format "wins") will surpass DVD sales? If so, how long do you think it will take?

Obviously, people need to have an HDTV in their home to take advantage of the HD media, which is an obsticle that DVD doesn't have. At the end of 2006, there were 27.7 million HDTV homes. It's estimated that by 2011, around 81% of US homes will have an HDTV. That's a big increase for four years! But even still, will people want to replace their DVD collection with HD media? I know we will, because we're HT junkies posting on a DVD forum. But do you think Average Joe will, even if he has an HDTV? There's also other HD media that Blu-Ray/HD-DVD will have to compete with, like IPTV and video on demand.

I'm just curious to hear people's thoughts on the subject.

Doubt it.

Only if they stop making DVDs and force people to go to the HD (BLUE or HD-DVD).

if one format gets decided on, that will eventually happen.

and it is likely one format gets decided on because that's in the long term interest of studios.




i don't think it's dependent on hdtv sets being in people's homes.

i believe it's more dependent on one format being agreed upon by all studios. the sooner that happens, the sooner the install base of the single HD format grows, the sooner the studios force everyone to switch over whether they have hdtv sets or not

anything's still possible (either format winning, downloading beats both optical formats, etc) but it's most likely that one optical format will be seen as the clear winner within next two years.

...although even then, I can't see either of these formats ever dominating DVD, at least in terms of the total number of HD DVDs/Blu-ray discs sold even approaching what DVD has accomplished.

No way, no day.

It's possible, but unlikely. I will go outright and say that if it does happen, it won't be before 2010.

Highly unlikely. I see DVD hanging on like CDs for a long time.

No. The next format will be around before that happens.

If Universal were to abandon DVD for Combo HD-DVD only, and other studios followed suit it would pave the way for HD-DVD to replace DVD. A longshot I know, especially given the current manufacturing costs for Combos, but if production ever ramps up to that point, it provides a long-term pathway. BR doesn't really have a segue option, whereas HD-DVD does.

Ageed. So to answer your question, maybe never if it does happen, 5+ years at least IMHO.

No.

Yes.

Maybe?

Actually, most of the responses have been close to what I have thought: Blu-Ray or HD-DVD (whichever "wins") will be around for awhile, but most likely will not surpass DVD. I think it will probably end up being the format of choice for a smaller segment of people, much like Laserdisc vs. VHS: the HT enthusiasts (us).

DVD is so entrenched I don't think that this next gen format will be able to topple it. It's also too soon. Most Average Joes just rebought their VHS collection on DVD. I feel that the next format will be introduced in 10-15 years, and that will be the true successor to DVD. But who knows... If the studios stop releasing DVDs and only support HD media, that could very well have an impact. Outside of that, I dunno.

I think that the new media should be concentrating on new release movies instead of older titles since only the true collector will double dip for the older titles.

That assumes everyone already has the older titles.

I think one day, yes... But that could be a long time from now. It doesnt really matter if people will replace their old dvds (which in time I think that may be possible). Obviously it comes down to the fact if they stop producing S-DVD and a whole lot of price dropping, but once those things happen (and I think they will at some point), then I think eventually we will see the shift. There are a lot of if's, but I think the studios are invested in it and those "if's" will eventually take place.

I've bought more "old tittles" than new release titles in HD. No offense, but I only want my favorites and movies I don't already own in HD. Alot of the movies these days don't deserve HD treatment compared to older movies.

Totally agree. Getting some of the great older movies in HD is the reason I wanted these new formats. I will grab the occasionaly new movie, but most are not worth buying.

It's gonna be a LONG time before sales surpass DVD, if ever. I think DVD had a lot better chance at wide acceptance since there was no format war and they could be enjoyed without having to upgrade your TV.

What the HD disc formats have going for them, though, is that eventually people WILL upgrade their TVs, and within a matter of years, HD sets will be all that are available.

Never overestimate the complacency factor, though. The wife and I were just watching some satellite TV the other night and a makeup commercial came on. The thing was absolutely wretched to look at: the contrast was blown out and the colors were a complete mess. But it's nothing out of the ordinary. Each channel seems to have its own horrible characteristics, from over-pumped to under-saturated, but the majority of the masses probably couldn't care any less. After all, how many people are perfectly happy to listen to surround sound from their K-Mart blue-light-special, Home Theater-in-a-box?

Having said that, I can only imagine that for the HD formats to really take off in sales, public perception is going to have to be priority number one. It's simple marketing. When Phil Knight began selling shoes, he figured he would only need to get the coolest kids in school to wear them, and then they would sell themselves. And if it worked for Nike . . .

Nope, too many factors in the way.