And the rumors continue:

Apparently a Fox exec wanted a private demo of HD DVD at the Javits Center this weekend...

And now this:

This format war could truly come down to Universal and Sony...

And I'll take Spielbergs movies over Sony any day.

If Fox would release on a format destined to be stillborn like D-VHS, I don't know why they wouldn't support both HD DVD and Blu-ray.

Even though I'd miss Spider-Man 2, I'm pretty sure I could do without Sony movies for a long, long time. Universal and Paramount dominate my DVD collection, so I'm pretty well covered.

There are definitely a few Sony titles that I'd be sad to not have in HD: spiderman, close encounters, lawrence of arabia, the dark crystal... but, yeah, I wouldn't miss them enough to buy into a whole format.

Wasn't it a Fox exec a few weeks ago that said they wouldn't be supporting HD DVd for at least 3 years? Damn, these rumors are just getting out of control.

I wonder what would happen to all the BD fanboys if Sony was all that was left.

MOD NOTE: You always have to take things one step further? Just let it go. -namja

I don't see any Blu-rry exclusive studio committing to HD-DVD until next year at the earliest. I think they'll wait til the PS3 is released and see what sort of impact that has on software sales. I'd love to be proven wrong with Lions Gate and especially Disney, but I don't see it happening.

I'll recap some previous points I made on this thread which are relevant, as well.

Studios have 2 goals: 1) move to an HD format and 2) make money. Moving to an HD format gives:

• Resell everything and start a new cycle of double dipping
• Get better copy protection (DVD has been completely cracked)

A format war not only hurts HD sales but hurts SD DVD sales as well which goes against both goals.

The last thing the studios want is a format war. They went BD because it was the path of least resistance. Not only was BD supposedly superior to HD DVD, the PS3 would act as the fait accompli causing mass and automatic adoption of BD. Both goals accomplished in the fastest possible way.

But reality is BD is floundering along and HD DVD has taken a large lead. To continue to support BD exclusively would not only alienate most of the HD disc market, but obviously prolongs the format war.

The fastest way to accomplish both goals at this point is to at least go neutral. They may not be able to abandon BD completely (yet) because of contracts or obligations, but by supporting both formats they essentially kill Blu-ray.

Let what go? I wasn't even responding to anything because, as you WELL know, Josh is blocked for me. But regardless, It was an honest question and I wasn't referring to anyone specifically.

I think you need to back off.

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6381702.html

Interesting coming from the BD side.

You need to look at this at a higher level. BD & HD DVD sales are 0.1% of the optical format movie sales. They aren't missing anything right now. And in order for Blu-Ray to fail, you are talking about not only Sony going out of business, but also the top electronic manufacturers losing their butts across the board. Its just not going to happen. There is just too much support.

I dont get why you are making this so difficult....your making it a hd-dvd versus bd argument....why cant these companies just want to provide their products to hd-dvd owners?? Economically, if it makes them money (even small profits) why not do it?

Currently, they are alienating hd-dvd owners. I dont see why you cant understand that.

Forget being bluray exclusive, just think of it from the hd-dvd side of things.

In order to be fair, you need to look at the reverse of the situation. Ask the question again, but look at it from the many companies and studios who support Blu-Ray:

Why can't Toshiba and Universal just want to provide their products to Blu-Ray owners? Economically, if it makes them money (even small profits) why not do it?

I think I'm looking at the right level. The goal is to move to an HD disc format. A format war is bad for this goal. The studios will follow the path of least resistance to acheive said goal. By not supporting HD DVD certain studios are ignoring most of this market. Studios will follow the money. If you follow the money you end up at HD DVD.

Remember this was in response to your question of 'what do the studios gain by going neutral?' It doesn't really matter what the current overall market share is... they're building a new market which will replace the DVD market. They want to get to that point ASAP.

If/when Blu-ray fails, Sony certainly won't go out of business. Some folks will lose their jobs, I'm sure (like Ben Feingold did), but the company won't be going out of business. Certainly not with people buying Blu-ray discs when they don't even have a player.

Businesses lose lots of money on bad decisions all the time. Are you saying that Pioneer's or Panasonic's investment in Blu-ray to this point would sink them if they abandoned it now? I don't think so. Plus they could recoup that cost in short order by producing HD DVD players.

Are you saying that Blu-ray can't fail? Can I quote you on that?

True. But that wasn't the topic, Josh. If you want to talk about Toshiba rumors, you'll have to find some first. Or start one.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Sony say a long time ago that it would be using MPEG2 on BD until they developed other encoders? I don't see this rumor as being anything crazy, we were talking about this very subject when news first came out that they would be exclusively MPEG2 for awhile. What, 6-8 months ago?

Actually, he has a point. They still make Minidiscs, you know. Sony will use BD as long as they want to, certainly as long as the PS3 is around.

1) Their solution is better (its implementation if you want to get technical)
2) Their product is cheaper and delivers better quality
3) They own most of the market and therefore are leaving far less money on the table than the BD only companies-- a sure recipe for disaster in a war of attrition.
4) Their competition is looking silly and trying to emulate their success (sony abandoning MPEG-2 for VC-1 is the latest example)
5) If BD dies, they get the whole market and momentum is going their way.

True, Blu-ray will be around for a long time because the PS3 requires them. Obviously Blu-ray could fail as a movie format and Sony wouldn't be in any danger of going under, though.

Going neutral extends the format war. Something you say is bad (which I agree). Getting to the point where people adopt HD is when there is one format - at this point, the "path of least resistance" is for Universal to support Blu-Ray and end the war, rather than have Disney, Sony, Fox, and LG all support HD DVD.

Yes. Blu-ray can't fail. Quote me.

For Blu-Ray to fail, PlayStation 3 has to fail. Dreamcast type of failure. Sony wll have to stop making them. That won't happen. If it did, Sony would be ruined and would have to close shop - there is no doubt in my mind about that. If the other CE companies abandoned their investment this prematurely, I would surely encourage their stockholders to bail. You don't spend millions of dollars and years developing something only to throw it away after 4 months.

1) Short term, yes. Long term, maybe not.
2) Better quality? Compared to what?
3) If the market is too small, percentages are misleading.
4) VC-1 has been part of the spec for a long while. The trasnsisition was inevitable.
5) If HD DVD dies, they get the whole market and momentum is going their way.

Which is what I sad. BD will probably end up being for gaming...and possibly storage. That's it.

I wouldnt care if they did....Wasnt it Toshiba who was trying to get Sony to seek a compromise before the launches? I remember reading that somewhere, but dont know if it was true.

Anyways, I just want high quality hd content on disc....im really sick of the hd-dvd vs bd argument. I would love to see all studio releasing on both and let consumers decide which format.

Given that, both formats are gonna be around a while so some of the studios are probably beginning to realize that and thats probably behind the change in philosophy.

I believe they tried to twice. Sony wouldn't have any of it. It's their fault because of their arrogance.

MOD NOTE: Okay, we discussed this already. -namja

Here's some info from the Apple camp linked below. While it's from a rumor site, it makes valid points and if you don't want to read the link, says that Apple might be supporting both camps, not just BD.

http://www.thinksecret.com/news/0610brieflyhddvd.html

The 'path of least resistance' applies to the consumer which has overwhelmingly supported HD DVD. Not to big corporations trying to push a format on us. The market has spoken. If every studio went neutral right now, HD DVD would own a decisive market share and it would end the war.

There is a reason we are hearing strong rumors of LG and Disney moving to support HD DVD, but no rumors of Universal switching to Blu-ray.


How about Blu-ray can't fail as a movie format? then ?