HD DVD vs. Blu-Ray Disc vs. Everything Else: Round 4
10-13-06 | 06:14 PM
#251
DVD Talk Special Edition
High-def hobbles holiday expectations
Sales projections for formats scaled back from earlier estimates
By Susanne Ault 10/13/2006
OCT. 13 | New Blu-ray Disc players are now shipping to retailers for holiday sales, but even with the influx, earlier expectations for both the HD DVD and Blu-ray formats are being scaled back.
Warner Home Video recently halved its 2006 sales projections for high-definition DVD hardware and software, based on unforeseen limitations on hardware availability.
During the Oct. 6 High Def 101 conference in Los Angeles, Warner’s senior VP of market management, Steve Nickerson, said consumers spent $30 million on high-def hardware and software through September, down from about $60 million the studio originally expected would be spent in the period.
Clipped quantities of Sony’s much anticipated PlayStation 3 videogame console and Blu-ray movie player, as well as limited quantities of other players, will likely continue to hobble early high-def revenue, said Nickerson. For the fourth quarter, Warner estimates about $750 million will be spent on high-def hardware, down from its initial projections of $1.5 billion to $1.9 billion. About $150 million will be spent on software, according to Warner’s revised forecast, down from earlier $225 million to $500 million projections.
Blu-ray hardware manufacturers, in particular, have been conservative in launching products. While HD DVD leader Toshiba is readying its second generation version of its HD-A1 model in time for the holidays, most Blu-ray manufacturers are still trying to get their first products out by year-end.
Panasonic’s Blu-ray player started shipping mid-October to mostly specialty electronics stores.
High-def supplier sources estimate that Panasonic is initially shipping about half the number of machines that Samsung—the first company to put a Blu-ray player on the market—initially shipped to retail. To date, Samsung has shipped 10,000 units of its player to retailers.
Certain retailers, including Tweeter, are not expecting the Sony Blu-ray player until mid-November. Last week, BestBuy.com was listing a Nov. 13-20 availability date for the player.
Previously, Sony had been circling an Oct. 25 bow. Sony did not comment at deadline.
Philips is set to street its player at the end of October, confirmed company VP Marty Gordon. He didn’t comment on shipment size, but high-def sources indicate quantities will be similar to Panasonic’s somewhat narrow launch.
“All the [Blu-ray] manufacturers are being fairly careful about putting something together that works,” said Frank Roshinski, Tweeter VP and general merchandising manager for video. “They are dealing with more advanced discs coming, involving Java technology. It’s a little bit frustrating—I want to get this out and sell. But I also don’t want to take a lot of returns from people who are unhappy.”
Early negative Blu-ray reviews could lead manufacturers to tread cautiously to shelves with players after Samsung took hits from consumers upset over operational problems.
One high-def software source said he wishes manufacturers would go to market more assertively with their players, especially since restricted PS3 launch quantities will leave an unanticipated void at retail.
“The consumer electronics business is such that normally when they see their competition falling down, they’ll try to take the most advantage,” the supplier said. “But nobody is doing that. It is concerning why they aren’t being more aggressive with quantities. With the PS3 [situation], why aren’t they changing strategies?”
Nationwide Marketing Group, a buying group for 2,500 primarily indie electronics retailers, is willing to wait for perfected Blu-ray players but is hungry for accurate estimates about when players will arrive.
“The problem is generally getting information in a timely way,” said Jeannette Howe, executive director of Nationwide’s specialty electronics division. “We always hear after the fact when something has been delayed.”
Tweeter’s Roshinski said he is mostly pleased with the initial hardware performance of both formats. Across Tweeter’s 150-store chain, about 1,000 Toshiba players and about 660 Samsung Blu-ray players have been sold.
Roshinski said Tweeter has already garnered 200 pre-sales on Toshiba’s next generation HD DVD players. But he knows that he could attract even more customers if additional players were available.
“Having two to three players means not being able to do that great of a category presentation,” Roshinski said. “By Dec. 1, I should have on the floor four Blu-ray players, and two HD DVD players, and at that time, I can make a good floor presentation to customers. This Christmas, expectations are limited. But by next Christmas, we should really be able to do the business.”
I dont understand companies that are upset at only 900,000,000. being spent on new hardware and software. I understand the projections, but I think they overestimated demand. With the exception of toshiba, prices are just to high for people. Let's face it, High-def is just a niche market right now, albeit a expensive one. Until prices start coming down and a winner has been crowned, only then will it start making the money that they expect.
Sales projections for formats scaled back from earlier estimates
By Susanne Ault 10/13/2006
OCT. 13 | New Blu-ray Disc players are now shipping to retailers for holiday sales, but even with the influx, earlier expectations for both the HD DVD and Blu-ray formats are being scaled back.
Warner Home Video recently halved its 2006 sales projections for high-definition DVD hardware and software, based on unforeseen limitations on hardware availability.
During the Oct. 6 High Def 101 conference in Los Angeles, Warner’s senior VP of market management, Steve Nickerson, said consumers spent $30 million on high-def hardware and software through September, down from about $60 million the studio originally expected would be spent in the period.
Clipped quantities of Sony’s much anticipated PlayStation 3 videogame console and Blu-ray movie player, as well as limited quantities of other players, will likely continue to hobble early high-def revenue, said Nickerson. For the fourth quarter, Warner estimates about $750 million will be spent on high-def hardware, down from its initial projections of $1.5 billion to $1.9 billion. About $150 million will be spent on software, according to Warner’s revised forecast, down from earlier $225 million to $500 million projections.
Blu-ray hardware manufacturers, in particular, have been conservative in launching products. While HD DVD leader Toshiba is readying its second generation version of its HD-A1 model in time for the holidays, most Blu-ray manufacturers are still trying to get their first products out by year-end.
Panasonic’s Blu-ray player started shipping mid-October to mostly specialty electronics stores.
High-def supplier sources estimate that Panasonic is initially shipping about half the number of machines that Samsung—the first company to put a Blu-ray player on the market—initially shipped to retail. To date, Samsung has shipped 10,000 units of its player to retailers.
Certain retailers, including Tweeter, are not expecting the Sony Blu-ray player until mid-November. Last week, BestBuy.com was listing a Nov. 13-20 availability date for the player.
Previously, Sony had been circling an Oct. 25 bow. Sony did not comment at deadline.
Philips is set to street its player at the end of October, confirmed company VP Marty Gordon. He didn’t comment on shipment size, but high-def sources indicate quantities will be similar to Panasonic’s somewhat narrow launch.
“All the [Blu-ray] manufacturers are being fairly careful about putting something together that works,” said Frank Roshinski, Tweeter VP and general merchandising manager for video. “They are dealing with more advanced discs coming, involving Java technology. It’s a little bit frustrating—I want to get this out and sell. But I also don’t want to take a lot of returns from people who are unhappy.”
Early negative Blu-ray reviews could lead manufacturers to tread cautiously to shelves with players after Samsung took hits from consumers upset over operational problems.
One high-def software source said he wishes manufacturers would go to market more assertively with their players, especially since restricted PS3 launch quantities will leave an unanticipated void at retail.
“The consumer electronics business is such that normally when they see their competition falling down, they’ll try to take the most advantage,” the supplier said. “But nobody is doing that. It is concerning why they aren’t being more aggressive with quantities. With the PS3 [situation], why aren’t they changing strategies?”
Nationwide Marketing Group, a buying group for 2,500 primarily indie electronics retailers, is willing to wait for perfected Blu-ray players but is hungry for accurate estimates about when players will arrive.
“The problem is generally getting information in a timely way,” said Jeannette Howe, executive director of Nationwide’s specialty electronics division. “We always hear after the fact when something has been delayed.”
Tweeter’s Roshinski said he is mostly pleased with the initial hardware performance of both formats. Across Tweeter’s 150-store chain, about 1,000 Toshiba players and about 660 Samsung Blu-ray players have been sold.
Roshinski said Tweeter has already garnered 200 pre-sales on Toshiba’s next generation HD DVD players. But he knows that he could attract even more customers if additional players were available.
“Having two to three players means not being able to do that great of a category presentation,” Roshinski said. “By Dec. 1, I should have on the floor four Blu-ray players, and two HD DVD players, and at that time, I can make a good floor presentation to customers. This Christmas, expectations are limited. But by next Christmas, we should really be able to do the business.”
I dont understand companies that are upset at only 900,000,000. being spent on new hardware and software. I understand the projections, but I think they overestimated demand. With the exception of toshiba, prices are just to high for people. Let's face it, High-def is just a niche market right now, albeit a expensive one. Until prices start coming down and a winner has been crowned, only then will it start making the money that they expect.
10-13-06 | 11:30 PM
#253
I'm at an odds with Best Buy. After talking with some of their employees tonight they refuse to put out this weeks HD-dvd releases, yes even Batman, out on the shelf. They said they could certainly run to the back to get them for me though.
I wonder why ....
I wonder why ....
10-14-06 | 01:23 AM
#254
Banned by request
Now this little tidbit from AVS is interesting:
I work for Best Buy and I was blown away this week. Two weeks ago I sent this email to corporate:
"I just wanted to send a heads up to corporate.
There is a 'possible' cease-and-desist (lawsuit) in the works against Best Buy
and Circuit City and other major retailers regarding the current advertising &
promotion of the Blu-ray technology (both players and discs) as "Next Generation
DVD".
This is hear-say for now but it is better to notify someone in corporate than to
let it sit and not be corrected.
From what I am hearing and reading the C&D looks something like this:
Blu-ray technology is not a "DVD" as a "DVD" is the trademark of the DVD FORUM.
Just as all copy machines are not Xerox or all facial tissue is not Kleenex.
Since Blu-ray walked out of the DVD FORUM they are not in any way allowed to use
the term "DVD (Digital Versital Disc)" text.
So the signage above the Blu-ray (Next Generation DVD) players and discs is a
Tradmark/Copywrite violation, if anything it can called "Next Generation Video Disc" but
Blu-ray cannot be advertised and/or promoted with the "DVD" name and/or
associate with the "DVD" name.
Only HD DVD players and discs can be associated, advertised and/or promoted with
the "DVD" format as it is part of the DVD FORUM.
I hope this is useful information whether it is hearsay or not it is valuable
information to keep Best Buy out of any sort of trouble."
Well this week I was at headquarters and was BLOWN away when I was told that my email had been seen by the VP of Sales as well as the Law Team and it was mentioned that because of my email all 800+ Best Buy stores are getting a signage change, Blu-Ray will receive a new sign that says, "Next Generation Video Disc" and the HD DVD will keep its "Next Generation DVD" Sign. SEE they DO care about the war (and staying neutral.. AND SPEAKING of WHICH!)
Also it is nice to note that I spoke with the Cheif of our media department and he said that Best Buy as a company cannot take a stance on the war, they were approached by both companies and said that it is in Best Buys interest to stay VERY neutral because if we sell BR to the customer on our glowing recommendations that we can be sued and visa-versa. So as far as employees go, he did say that yes people have a preference whether or not coprorate likes how they approach it... He was very neutral in how he talked to me about it but he gave me his undivided attention, so that was amazing.
I hope that stuff is a little eye-opening to some of you it is to me. My company listens and it was a very positive experience. Thanks for listening!
"I just wanted to send a heads up to corporate.
There is a 'possible' cease-and-desist (lawsuit) in the works against Best Buy
and Circuit City and other major retailers regarding the current advertising &
promotion of the Blu-ray technology (both players and discs) as "Next Generation
DVD".
This is hear-say for now but it is better to notify someone in corporate than to
let it sit and not be corrected.
From what I am hearing and reading the C&D looks something like this:
Blu-ray technology is not a "DVD" as a "DVD" is the trademark of the DVD FORUM.
Just as all copy machines are not Xerox or all facial tissue is not Kleenex.
Since Blu-ray walked out of the DVD FORUM they are not in any way allowed to use
the term "DVD (Digital Versital Disc)" text.
So the signage above the Blu-ray (Next Generation DVD) players and discs is a
Tradmark/Copywrite violation, if anything it can called "Next Generation Video Disc" but
Blu-ray cannot be advertised and/or promoted with the "DVD" name and/or
associate with the "DVD" name.
Only HD DVD players and discs can be associated, advertised and/or promoted with
the "DVD" format as it is part of the DVD FORUM.
I hope this is useful information whether it is hearsay or not it is valuable
information to keep Best Buy out of any sort of trouble."
Well this week I was at headquarters and was BLOWN away when I was told that my email had been seen by the VP of Sales as well as the Law Team and it was mentioned that because of my email all 800+ Best Buy stores are getting a signage change, Blu-Ray will receive a new sign that says, "Next Generation Video Disc" and the HD DVD will keep its "Next Generation DVD" Sign. SEE they DO care about the war (and staying neutral.. AND SPEAKING of WHICH!)
Also it is nice to note that I spoke with the Cheif of our media department and he said that Best Buy as a company cannot take a stance on the war, they were approached by both companies and said that it is in Best Buys interest to stay VERY neutral because if we sell BR to the customer on our glowing recommendations that we can be sued and visa-versa. So as far as employees go, he did say that yes people have a preference whether or not coprorate likes how they approach it... He was very neutral in how he talked to me about it but he gave me his undivided attention, so that was amazing.
I hope that stuff is a little eye-opening to some of you it is to me. My company listens and it was a very positive experience. Thanks for listening!
10-14-06 | 09:34 AM
#256
DVD Talk Legend
Originally Posted by DthRdrX
I'm at an odds with Best Buy. After talking with some of their employees tonight they refuse to put out this weeks HD-dvd releases, yes even Batman, out on the shelf. They said they could certainly run to the back to get them for me though.
I wonder why ....
I wonder why ....
10-14-06 | 10:12 AM
#257
DVD Talk Legend
The only thing I can think of is that they're getting returns from consumers who think they will play in their DVD players. They figure that the people that are buying these are in the know and will ask for them.
If that's the case, it may explain why Fast Times is out, since it's a combo.
If that's the case, it may explain why Fast Times is out, since it's a combo.
10-14-06 | 01:29 PM
#258
Originally Posted by Drexl
The only thing I can think of is that they're getting returns from consumers who think they will play in their DVD players. They figure that the people that are buying these are in the know and will ask for them.
If that's the case, it may explain why Fast Times is out, since it's a combo.
If that's the case, it may explain why Fast Times is out, since it's a combo.
They have had Waist Deep and Army of Darkness on the shelf for the past two weeks. They have not put out Fast Times.
10-14-06 | 01:45 PM
#259
DVD Talk Legend
Originally Posted by DthRdrX
True, but it wouldn't explain why Click was put on the shelf on Tuesday ....
10-14-06 | 01:49 PM
#260
DVD Talk Godfather
Don't all the HD DVDs have a sticker on the case saying "plays only on HD DVD players"?
I still don't know why these places don't just set up two demo areas with their best HDTVs running BD or HD DVD demos. I think consumers need to see all three work together: HDTV, the BD/HD DVD player, and the software. Maybe a banner that says "High Def discs have arrived!"
But
retailers just like doing the minimum I guess.
I still don't know why these places don't just set up two demo areas with their best HDTVs running BD or HD DVD demos. I think consumers need to see all three work together: HDTV, the BD/HD DVD player, and the software. Maybe a banner that says "High Def discs have arrived!"
But
retailers just like doing the minimum I guess.
10-14-06 | 07:13 PM
#261
Banned by request
Originally Posted by The Bus
Don't all the HD DVDs have a sticker on the case saying "plays only on HD DVD players"?
I still don't know why these places don't just set up two demo areas with their best HDTVs running BD or HD DVD demos. I think consumers need to see all three work together: HDTV, the BD/HD DVD player, and the software. Maybe a banner that says "High Def discs have arrived!"
But retailers just like doing the minimum I guess.
I still don't know why these places don't just set up two demo areas with their best HDTVs running BD or HD DVD demos. I think consumers need to see all three work together: HDTV, the BD/HD DVD player, and the software. Maybe a banner that says "High Def discs have arrived!"
But
retailers just like doing the minimum I guess.
10-15-06 | 07:58 PM
#263
DVD Talk Limited Edition
Joined: Mar 2002
Posts: 6,830
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
From: Mpls, MN
Originally Posted by Suprmallet
I'm guessing that the retailer just presumes that their customers can't read.
10-15-06 | 11:46 PM
#265
Toshiba may seek damages from Sony over Brand
"TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp. (6502.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) said on Monday that it may seek compensation from Sony Corp (6758.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) for possible damage to its brand image and a loss of potential sales due to a recall of Sony-made batteries used in its laptops.
Toshiba has joined other computer makers such as Dell Inc. (DELL.O: Quote, Profile, Research), Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research), Lenovo (0992.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), IBM (IBM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Sharp Corp. (6753.T: Quote, NEWS, Research), Fujitsu Ltd. (6702.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) and Hitachi Ltd. (6501.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) in recalling Sony batteries, which Sony has said can on rare occasions overheat and catch fire.
Sony has said that it would pay for the recall costs.
A Toshiba spokesman said the company may also look to seek damages for its brand and sales."
"TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp. (6502.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) said on Monday that it may seek compensation from Sony Corp (6758.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) for possible damage to its brand image and a loss of potential sales due to a recall of Sony-made batteries used in its laptops.
Toshiba has joined other computer makers such as Dell Inc. (DELL.O: Quote, Profile, Research), Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research), Lenovo (0992.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), IBM (IBM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Sharp Corp. (6753.T: Quote, NEWS, Research), Fujitsu Ltd. (6702.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) and Hitachi Ltd. (6501.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) in recalling Sony batteries, which Sony has said can on rare occasions overheat and catch fire.
Sony has said that it would pay for the recall costs.
A Toshiba spokesman said the company may also look to seek damages for its brand and sales."
10-16-06 | 10:45 AM
#267
Banned
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 15,957
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
From: NYC
http://www.variety.com/article/VR111...ryid=1009&cs=1
Despite its many uses, industryites agree that the PS3 will sell primarily on its core vidgaming capabilities.
"PS3 is first and foremost about games," states Hirai. "That really is the entry point for the majority of people. Oh, and by the way, they'll get a great Blu-ray player. It's an excellent by-product."
That "Trojan horse" strategy is what persuaded many studios to jump aboard Blu-ray, figuring that PS3 sales would put Blu-ray in tens of millions of homes where someone loves to play vidgames.
While some of those studios are taking a wait-and-see approach on the impact of PS3, others are already starting to feel burned by the delays and pricing concerns.
"PS3 was a huge deal in our coming aboard Blu-ray," confirms one top home entertainment exec. "I'm not sure we would have signed on if we had known then what we know now."
Such comments are undoubtedly bringing a smile to the backers of HD DVD, including former Warner home entertainment topper Warren Lieberfarb, who serves as Toshiba's high-profile U.S. consultant. As many of their predictions about delays and high prices for Blu-ray have proven true in the past year, the HD DVD side has gained momentum after seeming like an also-ran in late 2005.
"PS3 is first and foremost about games," states Hirai. "That really is the entry point for the majority of people. Oh, and by the way, they'll get a great Blu-ray player. It's an excellent by-product."
That "Trojan horse" strategy is what persuaded many studios to jump aboard Blu-ray, figuring that PS3 sales would put Blu-ray in tens of millions of homes where someone loves to play vidgames.
While some of those studios are taking a wait-and-see approach on the impact of PS3, others are already starting to feel burned by the delays and pricing concerns.
"PS3 was a huge deal in our coming aboard Blu-ray," confirms one top home entertainment exec. "I'm not sure we would have signed on if we had known then what we know now."
Such comments are undoubtedly bringing a smile to the backers of HD DVD, including former Warner home entertainment topper Warren Lieberfarb, who serves as Toshiba's high-profile U.S. consultant. As many of their predictions about delays and high prices for Blu-ray have proven true in the past year, the HD DVD side has gained momentum after seeming like an also-ran in late 2005.
10-16-06 | 11:14 AM
#271
Banned
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 15,957
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
From: NYC
Originally Posted by awmurray
Hmmm...
Are they prepping for HD DVD transfers?
Are they prepping for HD DVD transfers?
It's interesting considering it was Sony that didn't want VC-1 at all in the first place.
Apparently one of the guys says it is about to be confirmed. Whatever. It will only benefit them.
10-16-06 | 11:15 AM
#272
Banned
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 6,677
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
From: Blu-Ray: We Don't Need No Stinkin' Petition
Mark Rubin (long time mod over at AVS) has said the announcement would come shortly.
I'm already beginning to plan the Welcome Party for Universal. So kind of chips does everyone want?
I'm already beginning to plan the Welcome Party for Universal. So kind of chips does everyone want?
10-16-06 | 11:18 AM
#273
Banned
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 15,957
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
From: NYC
This message is hidden because joshd2012 is on your ignore list.
It's like pavlov's dog.
Didn't take long.
MOD NOTE: Pot. Kettle. Black. And now, this is borderline harassment. -namja[/i]
Last edited by namja; 10-16-06 at 12:55 PM.
10-16-06 | 11:29 AM
#274
DVD Talk Legend
Originally Posted by joshd2012
Mark Rubin (long time mod over at AVS) has said the announcement would come shortly.
I'm already beginning to plan the Welcome Party for Universal. So kind of chips does everyone want?
I'm already beginning to plan the Welcome Party for Universal. So kind of chips does everyone want?
10-16-06 | 11:30 AM
#275
DVD Talk Special Edition
Joined: Feb 1999
Posts: 1,423
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
From: Indianapolis, IN
Originally Posted by digitalfreaknyc
It's like pavlov's dog.
Didn't take long.
Last edited by namja; 10-16-06 at 12:55 PM.