If the movie studios are relying on people switching to HD only because of superior picture and sound then HD is dead in the water. You can quote me on that.

We live in an Ipod generation.

Quality doesn't mean shit to most people.

You give the public way too much credit. Most people (meaning more than 50% of the people) don't watch extras. They buy the DVDs because they want to own the movie. They buy the Special Edition DVDs because it says "Special Edition" without knowing what that really means (probably because the packaging looks cool).

Most HD consumers buy HD products without knowing much about it. What percent of HDTV owners thought they were watching television in HD when they were actually watching SD because they didn't subscribe to HD (anyone have the link to the articles?)? It was something like 30-40%.

You (anyone who is reading the HD Talk Forum here or any other AV forums for that matter) are easily in the top 10% in terms of HD knowledge, and as such, you have higher expectations from the HD DVD or BD discs. For the rest of the public, they just want to see better quality pictures.

Furthermore ... dum-dum-dum ... I wonder how many people have just the HDTV with no audio setup. I'm willing to bet that over 50% of HDTV owners use just the TV speakers for audio. With the general public, the focus will always be on the PQ.


BTW, did you know that in Italian Job, when they drove the Mini Coopers down the stairs into the subway station, the actors actually drove the cars themselves (did their own stunts)? You probably knew that, but the "general public" wouldn't know that because they don't watch the extras. Really, ask 10 people today who's seen that movie if they knew that little trivia; I'll bet less than 5 knew that tidbit.

I don't agree with the Ipod comparison. DVD and HD discs use audio/video compression just like Itunes does. To most who use Itunes, the audio compression used produces audio quality that's transparent to them, or equal to a CD. Even for those for whom its not, they can rip their own CDs at higher bitrates and get quality to their liking. People jumped ship from LD to DVD even though DVD has compressed picture and sound because DVDs are more convenient, just like with the Ipod. Also, Itunes just announced a 4-times increase in resolution on their video, so even download stores know the importance of video quality.

HD-DVD and BD manufaturers know that higher video and audio quality are its main selling points, thus slogans like "the look and sound of perfect." Of course, the studios didn't completely sit on their haunches in regards to extras, thus iHD and BD-J, but I don't view those advancement as enough to drive sales regardless of audio/video enhancement.

Yep, I think your right. J6P is clueless.

BUT, why do DVDs have special features then?? Answer: Because the early adopters wanted them and they became a staple.

My point is that I think thats whats going to happen here. Right now, this format war is being fought over early adopters not J6P. HD-DVD is winning (at the moment).

Im not going to support BD by buying a release that is void of extras (any of the Lionsgate releases and many Sony ones). If we all do this, they will see the sales numbers and begin including them. Lets dont let J6P control the content.

We all know that if it were up to the sheep, The Fifth Element on BD would be a reference disc.

J6P is clueless, my sister and too a lesser extent brother fall into these categories. They both had HDTV for over a year with no HD service. They at least understood they had no HD service, but they were in no huge hurry to get HD. My brother spends his money on car stuff my sister on going out to eat with friends, etc. I spend mine on HD cable and loads of DVDs and now HD-DVD. They are in no hurry whatsoever to buy HD-DVD players. If they do decide to get one they will buy whatever tell them to get, but left to their own they would get the Toshiba on price alone. We all need to accept that this format war is essentially pointless. The general masses are "never" going to care. This is all about "us" - the HD niche. That does not mean J6P will not help or hurt one or both sides of this war. There will be people that buy players and not disc because the guy selling equipment says they need it. Just look at the sale ads if you need confirmation - no mention of HD-DVD or BD disc nearly every week but pages of DVDs and DVD players.

Wait a minute. Which one of us said that?

I disagree. Special features were offered because they were technically easy to offer on DVD (as opposed to VHS) and the studios rapidly figured out that they could double dip by releasing newer, spiffier, editions with extras. Even if only a subset of buyers were interested, the DVD Special Editions cost very little extra and were highly profitable.

For example: my first DVD, purchased in 1999, was a barebones 1998 edition of The Mask of Zorro. Since then Sony has released a "Special Edition", a "Superbit Deluxe" edition, and a "Deluxe Edition". These additional releases of special editions had nothing to do with early adopters and everything to do with double dipping.

Now that we have been conditioned to expect special features, it seems counterintuitive to expect buyers, especially early adopters, to accept barebones releases on the new high definition formats, because they are supposed to be an upgrade from DVD in every way.

Yes, they were easier to offer, but they still cost money to produce and include...extras SHOULD be easier to include with HD releases. AT LEAST, porting over the same as sd dvds. So, this should not be an issue.

IF Sony and Lionsgate are planning a double dip, then as I said, to combat that, we should not purchase their barebones releases. Im HOPING that space is the only limitation for them and this wont become the norm.

An interesting article:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6372284.html

While I agree that a good percentage of the population is cluless when it comes to certain aspects of the audio video argument you are maknig some assumptions that are incorrect. First of all your brother spend all his money on car stuff and your sister spends all of her money going out yet they both purchased HDTV's. Why? Why werent they happy with a standard TV where they would have save hundreds maybe thousands of dollars especially if HDTV isnt even imprtant to them? Why has the rate of HDTVs literally jumped through the roof in the last 12 months and continues to grow at an enourmous rate?

Ill tell you why. Because everyone in this country has to have the new in items. iPods, cellphones with all the latest features etc.. I can go on and on about things that people buy just because every one else has one. Its the hip thing to do and right now HDTV is the in thing.

With that being said people in this country also look for value and if HD-DVD's fall a little more in price to where they are basically even with SD people will never accept buying a SD DVD title when they could buy an HD DVD title for the same price or even a couple dollars more.

As for the Audio Video argument. I have always felt that image quality is substantially more important than audio quality when referring to the general population. I am not talking about the early adopters obviously. The people like your brother and sister bought HDTV's but did they also buy a 400-800 dollar Audio Reciever with 5.1, 6.1, 7.1 and a nice set of speakers? Ill bet not and ill bet the majority of the public doesnt either. Some people may disagree with this but Ill belive it to the end of my days. we are a visual society. People are bombarded with pictures and video all day long and when people think of HD DVD's they are primarily focused on the video quality and it will remain that way imo.

Bottom line is simply that in the next few years HD technology will come down in price to where it is on par with SD technology, maybe slightly higher. The only people that will continue to buy standard definition when they could have HD will be old people who just refuse to adopt a new format. There are always people who refuse to change and there always will be. This country however is driven by change and with the current generation of kids and familys eating HDTV up right now as fast as ever, things are going just the way the studios want them too.

If people were refusing to buy HDTV's and just sticking with SD TV's then I would totally agree with the other people who dont think that HD will take off. Howeer that is not the case and HDTV's are selling like hotcakes and SD TV's are taking up less and less space at retailers. People want HDTV and eventually will want HD DVD's. I have no doubt of it happening.

PS....

Saw this posted over at highdefdigest...Feingold steps down

Sony Home Video Chief Feingold Exits; MGM Vet Steps In

Benjamin Feingold, dubbed "Blu-ray Ben" for his leadership role in spearheading industry support for the next-gen format, has exited his post as Worldwide Home Video President at Sony after 12 years.

Feingold first assumed his presidency at Sony back when it was Columbia TriStar Home Video, and he quickly earned praise from all sectors of the industry. He was a pioneer in the acquisition of third-party product and the production of direct-to-video sequels -- both of which are common practice at the major studios -- and along with ex-Warner Home Video president Warren Lieberfarb, was integral in launching the DVD format. Which, of course, went on to become the most successful new product introduction in the history of consumer electronics.

More recently, Feingold has been one of Hollywood's most aggressive backers of Blu-ray, earning him the nickname "Blu-ray Ben." He's also championed digital downloading and other alternative entertainment delivery options.

Taking over for Feingold as Sony's new president of worldwide home entertainment is David Bishop, the veteran MGM Home Entertainment chief who joined Sony in May 2005 after a consortium led by the studio bought MGM. At the time, Bishop was tapped as president of worldwide brand integration by Sony, a position created to manage Sony's assumption of the MGM catalog.

How this changing of the guard at Sony will affect the studio's upcoming Blu-ray plans remains to be seen. Regime changes at the highest studio levels historically have brought with them sweeping internal overhauls, though no one is expecting Sony to suddenly lessen support for the next-gen format they were integral in developing.

If nothing else, the exit of Feingold comes at a crucial time for the Blu-ray format. Early press for Blu-ray has been mixed, while rival HD DVD has outperformed even the most optimistic industry expectations, both in terms of sales and positive buzz from early adopters. The format could certainly use the leadership and passion of a "Blu-ray Ben" right now, so Sony should only hope that "Blu-ray Bishop" will ultimately have the same ring to it. We'll see...

No doubt. You just have to read through this entire thread (all 3 episodes) for proof of that. About 3 people here cared about audio before the A1 came out. Now a few more do after hearing the new stuff. The percentage of people is still small enough to compare to lottery odds, though. Maybe if the trend continues, the world will be a better place.

There's now a rumor on AVS that the Pioneer BD player will be delayed until 2007.

There's also a picture of a Sharp BD player/receiver that will set you back 3k if anyone is interested.

Meh, I'd call it bad news, but......I just can't bring myself to care, anymore. It was going to be worthless, anyway. Maybe they'll delay it in order to add enough features to make it worth owning. At least that would make sense.

The reason they have HDTV, is the reason alot of people have them. Try to go buy a large 50+ inch Standard TV. I don't even know where you would get them. They do not see the "value" in that extra image and video quality. Everyone oints out that HDTVs are selling well, but that is not a great indicator in my opion since outside of small CRT sets, HDTV is really the only choice these days - especially if you want something big. My sister now has DirecTV HD and my brother has Comcast HD, but neither are in a hurry to gget HD-DVD - they are fine with DVD and probably will be until they can get a $100 player and $10 movies.

Pioneer is building all the Sony machines right now...and apparently Sony is pissed because they want them out.

Sony is busy building the PS3.

Who the hell knows how this is going to shake out...

So, they've actually started PS3 production, now?

That info was posted by a MS employee btw. He's usually been right on the money in the past.

I was pretty sure they said the end of last week was when they planned to start production but I havn't seen any updates yet.

You may not realize it but your posts are just backing up what I am saying and what my assumptions about people in the general population have been all along and that is they will upgrade to HDTV's and even subscribe to HD programming even tho they dont really care, as you describe it, about HD. As for it being difficult to find a 50 CRT, completly not true. It is still very easy to get a 50" SD television and much much cheaper. We just purchased a 52" Sony SD TV for our basement just so we have something down there even tho we never go down there and I couldnt belive how cheap they are now. They had 3 different 50"+ models at my local best buy and even more choices from my local Circuit City and they had a ton of them at our local ABC Warehouse. I dont nkow where you live but as far as Detroit goes it is still very easy to buy a SD TV in basically any size you want. That isnt even taking into account online shopping and all of the options you have available to you there. I walked out of the store with a brand new Sony for less than 400 bucks.

Again everything you have brought up about your sister and brother just further proves this. Your brother and sister have no interest in HD as you yourself has stated yet again they each have HDTV' and now we find out that they have even subscribed to HD programming. Ill bet you this scenario plays out time and time again all over the country right now as again HDTV's are without a doubt the hottest item in electronic stores at the moment.

PS...

Wow, I have 12 HD-DVDs so far, so I'm less than halfway there. I better quit slacking off.

Exactly. Sales are increasing because prices are dropping and stores are pushing HD heavily for larger sets. But that doesn't necessarily mean that people care about (or even know anything about) HD.

I know two sets of people who purchased 50"-60" HDTVs this year (my parents and some friends). Neither set has seen *any* HD content on it. Ever. They got the sets because they liked the price and quality, but both people are perfectly happy using it for standard cable, standard DVD, and, yes, even VHS. "HD" means nothing to them.


And when I see what these people are doing: stretching standard def 4:3 material to the point of very noticable distortion, etc. ... well, I don't think they'll be lining up to pay big bucks to upgrade DVDs to HD. I can't even talk my dad into paying an extra $10 a month to get HD over cable.

As I stated in my post there will always be people that refuse to update but 90% of the people when faced with 2 different products will go for the one that gives them the most for thier money. Right now HD DVD's are more expensive but that will not always be so. In almost no time at all in the big picture of things HD-DVD's will be basically on par with SD DVD's in terms of price (Both players and the actual movie). Once that day come people will stop buying SD and during the transition period when the price is still coming down more and more people wil switch the closer it gets to SD prices. HD will replace SD completly one day, to that I have no doubt. Its just going to take some time to get everyone on the same page.

PS...

The fact that both my sister and brother have HD right now might be misleading. They both just moved and it is basically free. In a couple of months when there bill goes up, I forsee both probably dropping it.

Your stores must have real old stock they are clearing out or something. In both East (Knoxville) and Middle (Nashville) Tennessee there are no large standard TV sets in stores. BestBuy.com does not even list a 50+ inch standard TV (I checked just in case I was completely missing something when I went there). The Best Buy here just eliminated a ton of the cheaper stuff and carry more high end stuff than ever with the opening of Magnolia Home Theater in the back corner of the store. All the bigscreen TVs at WalMart are even HDTV. Maybe its just the location, but that is the way it has been for nearly two years around here.

I see tons of people (family and friends) doing exactly what bboisvert said streching 4:3 tv and fullscreen DVDs across HDTV sets. It would be fine with me if HD-DVD or BD just phased out DVD, but I just don't see it happening. I could see it having a better chance if there was no format war, but there is and that will slow down adoption and cause the transition to be more confusing. If you get HD disc drives that play DVD and HD-DVD and BD in machines that are 69.99 then it will phase out DVD. The chances of this happening in the next few years slim to none. I think HD will fall somewhere between LD and DVD in terms of success. It may be niche, but it will be a big niche with a good selection and pretty easy to get, but DVD is not going away.

The transition will be slow, probably 8-10 years, but I think it will happen. As each pricing plateau is met by the new formats, it will essentially supercede it. For instance, if you had $500 now to spend on a new DVD player, why would you not get the HD-DVD player that can play those discs as well. Eventually the wnning format will drop to levels where the pricing is as attractive as DVD.

There are a couple factors that are much different with this transition than the VHS/LD to DVD switch.

The studios have a cash cow that is starting to show signs of dying. A new format gives them new ways to sell people what they already have.

The new formats also offer what the studios see as a more secure product.

For these two reasons, studios will help push the pricing of the formats down and the push the adoption and phase out of DVD forward.

DVD does have plenty of legs left though.