Neither side has announced any #'s.

Thats the magic question no one knows. All we know is a range between 35K-65K by the end of October.

I also had a problem with the 500K units being sold. Perhaps the report might have been wrong and that the studios are in fact looking at the 360 add-on drive. If you think about it, it's near impossible at this point to guess what percentage of PS3s will be used for Blu-Ray but every 360 add-on will work the same as a dedicated player as people purchasing it would be paying only to watch movies.

Also, I don't believe the HD-dvd group has really pushed the PC drives/recorders yet(at all?).

Let’s look at some hypothetical numbers that I came up with:

HD-DVD

RIGHT NOW
Number of HD-DVD players sold we’ll say 85K
Average # of hd-dvds sold per machine 7-12
Total hd-dvds sold = 595K – 1.1M

By the end of the year
Number of HD-DVD players sold we’ll say 250K
Average # of hd-dvds sold per machine 10-15
Total hd-dvds sold = 2.5M – 3.75M

The end of the year numbers I’ve based on how many HD-DVD players will be sold taking into account MS’ HD add-on and the other players released. Not sure how many will be buying the add-on I probably will but not sure about the mass adoption or how many MS plans on shipping. I think more people will be buy discs so I increased that number more than I did blu-ray.


BLU-RAY

RIGHT NOW
Number of Blu-Ray players sold we’ll say 20K
Average # of Blu-Ray discs sold per machine 3-5
Total blu-ray discs sold = 60K – 100K

By the end of the year
Number of Blu-Ray players sold we’ll say 800K
Average # of Blu-Ray discs sold per machine 5-8
Total blu-ray discs sold = 4.0M – 6.4M

The end of the year numbers I’ve based on how many PS3s will be sold but my feeling is that it’s going to get sold out no matter what. There are just too many people out there who want one. I know I do and I may just buy one now and sell it because that will be selling out like crazy. I increased the number of blu-ray discs sold a little less than hd-dvd because I feel people will be spending more money on games rather than movies.


Summary is that Blu-ray will outsell HD-DVD by a million units or so.

Edit: just wanted to add that I don't know if this is enough to end the war. to me it doesn't sound like enough.

If anyone has more accurate numbers feel free to change them but right now this is my forecast.

to me, your attachment rate is off. They just said that (I believe) the # of HD DVD's sold per unit is 30 or 35.

@ 20,000 Blu-ray players sold. Even the 85,000 HD DVD players is way off.

Sold reports show Warner is expecting around 65K units sold by the end of October for Hd-dvd, Around 10K Samsung Blu-Ray units right now (Large return rate however).

Videoscan only tracks around 60% of the market though I believe.

I've read similar numbers (probably from the same post on AVS), but I find it really hard to believe that your average HD DVD owner has 60% of the total library available.

We're talking US market, right?

Sony is shipping 1.2 million PS3s into the US by year's end. Market penetration for HDTVs is somewhere between 15% and 30%, depending on who you talk to. I don't think half of PS3 owners will have HDTVs. They may be planning on it, but they may not have them. Buying a PS3, even if you have an HDTV, doesn't guarantee you have interest in movies. You may not like the $20-$40 price tag. You may not like the titles available (although they seem to skew to a PS3 audience: Underworld, Ultraviolet, Aeon Flux, Tomb Raider, Silent Hill, Terminator, XXX, Species).

That adds up to two things:

First, no way that 1.2 million PS3s become 600,000 movie players. You're looking at 175,000 to 400,000, I'd call it, realistically, 300,000 players. I don't see standalone BD players moving more than 100,000 units by the end of this year. They might only sell 50,000. Who knows. (My guess is HD DVD hardware is outselling BD hardware 5 to 1).

Either way, we've got somewhere between 225,000 to 500,000 BD players. Of those, 100,000 will be high attach: 10 to 15 titles, say 12. The rest will be very low attach: 3 to 7 titles, call it 5.

So the standalone players sell 1.2 million. The consoles sell 1.2 million. That's a total of 2.4 million sold. If we go back through the estimates and pick high and low numbers, the low is ~1 million and the high is 4.3 million.

Now, for HD DVD, I can see the standalone players selling 150,000 by year's end. The Xbox 360 add-on? Your guess is as good as mine. Reportedly 5 million Xbox 360s have shipped. Let's say of those, 40% were sold to consumers in North America. Let's say 5% get the HD DVD add-on (1 out of 6 Xbox 360 owners with HDTVs). That's 100,000 sold. Your estimate of 250,000 seems spot on. At an attach rate of 10 to 15, we've got 2.5 million HD DVDs up to 3.7 million HD DVDs.

There's no way to know for sure how this will play out. But for BD to get a 1 million plus advantage in software seems a bit unrealistic.

Take this estimate and the 11-to-1 software ratio and it seems the HD DVD attach rate is about twice as strong, which is not surprising considering the technical quality of HD DVDs catalog as well as the plain fact that a lot more movies are out on HD DVD.

Well, I'd say yes BUT...I talk to two guys on a regular basis (one of which is on this board) and they both have all (almost all) of the releases. I still don't think I have more than a dozen.

I am willing to bet my A1 that that number is way off. I remember hearing reports (quoted from AVS via Supr or yourself) about studios hoping to get a 20-to-1 ratio going by end of this year or next spring.

35? No way.

You are correct, at least in my case. I have stopped buying SD DVD's now, at least major motion pictures in SD which means until Sony, Fox and whoever release films in HD-DVD they wont seea penny from me when just 3-4 months ago I was pumping alot of cash thier way on a weekly basis. This is a very good point and one that I think has been overlooked. I started that post yesterday regarding people SD purchasing habits and if HD had changed them and the prominent figure was an absolute yes.

Bottom line, as The Bus said, The studios arent only losing money from sales they could have if in the HD-DVD market but also losing regular SD sales as well now. Its a double edged sword that will take a bigger and bigger chunk away from thier net sales.

PS..

Let's say there's 50,000 players in homes now. If this 30 to 35 rate is correct, that's over 1.5 million titles sold. You said WB had an initial run of 25,000 on their titles, right?

Even if 50,000 of each title were printed, that means the equivalent of 35 titles are completely sold out and out of print. Retailers wouldn't be ignoring HD DVD if that was the case.

I can see 30 to 35 software titles being sold to stores per player. That's realistic. But it still means somewhere there's a warehouse full of Assault on Precinct 16 and Rumor Has It... HD DVDs that retailers aren't putting on shelves.

I felt like calling shenanigans on those numbers too when I saw them. But then I realized that I'm a new HD DVD owner (well, 1 month...). And I own 15 discs. With another 14 coming in the mail.

Because we're dealing with early adopters, I think those numbers may be accurate. People going out to buy an A1 right now are *desperate* for HD content. I'm sure there are some who get the player and only a few titles. But those are probably offset by those people who buy *everything* (I've seen a few of those on AVS.)

And then there are a lot of people in the middle like me, who buy what they like. Overall, it could definitely average out to 30-35 titles. I consider myself pretty average (not a casual HT fan, not a hardcore one either) and I'll be right in the center of that figure after owning the machine for only 6 weeks.


But who knows... the numbers could be way off. I'm just dealing with random personal experience here.

The attachment leak was supposedly 20-25 per player right now. There seem to be a lot of people buying different amounts accross the board so its logical to average out that way. Early adopters can be crazy when it comes to the software leaking out slowly and buying anything.

Now the Hddvd/Blu-Ray software ratio is said to be 11-1 before the 9/26 release date. Considering what was released by Universal/Warner on 9/26 and what Warner is releasing on Oct 10, the ratio is expected to climb to around 15-1 for October. The 20-1 number is just a worst case scenario for Blu-Ray in November. That depends on the Superman/Kong releases and what happens with the PS3.

I just passed 45 so youd be right in my case. I cant belive Ihave that many so soon. Just goes to show you the addiction at work. I still remember popping in Serenity for the first time as it sat as the lone title in my collection. The funny thing is I have almost that many on pre-order so the amount I own will almost double in the next month or 2.

PS..

I'm up to 14 with 6 more coming whenever Amazon gets around to shipping them. I would buy more, but there is just too much garbage from the last few years and not enough classics or at least semi-classics. There are several of my 14 that I would probably have skipped on DVD, but just wanted to get something on HD DVD and grabbed them.

April Fool's Day ... In September?

RUMOR: Panasonic and Sony to release Hybrid Player

"An anonymous source heard from someone high-up in the company—we can't say who—that Panasonic/Matsushita is going to produce a dual HD DVD/Blu-ray player next year. This will be a hardware hybrid, and not a disc hybrid, as we posted about yesterday.

These sources say that Panasonic is doing this to protect itself, as the next-gen DVD wars aren't close to being resolved, and they don't want all their next-generation eggs in one next-generation basket, no matter how Blu that basket may be.

Also, it's rumored that Sony will be making one of these as well, but this is even more rumory than the Panasonic rumor. We'll believe it when we see it, since Sony's not one to throw in the towel and a hybrid drive would be somewhat of a concession. We're more likely to see a mea culpa from OJ Simpson than Sony.

Right: A famous hybrid. – Jason Chen"

I have 38 HD DVDs as of yesterday, with another two coming the mail this week. So I have more than the average now. And I'm actually holding off on a few (like Lethal Weapon 2) so I can buy it on November 17th to show Sony what I think of the PS3.

As for that rumor, I really don't think it's true, but then again, Sony did just fire Blu-ray Ben.

I don't believe Sony would ever support Hd-dvd until the shareholders demand it. They do have really good knowledge of Toshiba's product though through the optical drive merger they had with NEC last summer.

Pioneer, Samsung & LG seem, time after time, to say something about producing HD-dvd drives or dual format players only for Sony to give them a call reminding them of their BDA commitments.

Panny is a possibility as well if only for their recent behavior and the money being left on the table. Pushing back Gen1 players again while we are hearing about Gen2 players coming out in like 3-4 months? Their inflated prices in other countries are pretty off the wall as well.

I'm not giving much credence to it, but I think Sony's wall of Blu is indeed starting to crumble, based on insider rumblings I'm hearing.

I review discs as fast as they come in, I don't have to pay for most of them, and even I only own 36 HD DVDs.

I've got more discs than Josh Z!

Bummer, I sent an email requesting to review HD titles and they never got back to me. Sounds like it would be fun with the benefit of free movies.

PS...

I have to give TSD2005 a big thank you for some of the info he has been stating lately.