My reasoning is strictly from a business and marketing perspective. In all honesty, I don't even care which format ends up winning. I have no bias toward a particular technology here.

Many (not all) of the Blu-ray supporters I read from on this forum and others just don't look at the economic aspects of it all. They are looking at it from a purely technical perspective. To not think studio support cannot change in a very short period time is someone who does not understand business and marketing. Business is ALWAYS changing. It's always dynamic. If not, it fails. Anyone who works for a company or corporation who sells and markets products should know how quickly things can change.

I don't know the magic number, nor exactly how long it will take, but early reports are very positive for Toshiba and the real marketing campaign hasn't even started yet. This has really been more of a "soft launch."
If positive numbers continue for the next several months, I can almost guarantee you will see the start of at least one or two more studios (maybe more) to announce support for HD-DVD. I think this can happen by late summer, or possibly even sooner --- again IF strong sales continue. I think once one studio "crosses the line" in support for HD-DVD, the others will start - kind of a domino effect.

The $499 starting price for the initial rollout of the player was absolutely genius from a marketing standpoint. It was virtually a perfect price point for this format war. This player will be able to be purchased for well under $500 come Christmas or sooner. In addition, to being the first to hit the market and having those particular studios (Paramount, Warner, and Universal) were strong enough for initial content roll-out.