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Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD software pricing

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Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD software pricing

Old 04-04-06, 03:29 PM
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Moderator's note: this thread was split off from a discussion about HD-DVD/Blu-ray titles available for pre-order at deepdiscountdvd.com:

Hmmmmm...

Exactly what you'd expect to find:

Blu-Ray software is more expensive than HD and you can't buy a Blu-Ray player.
But you can buy an HD-DVD player there....
Old 04-04-06, 03:47 PM
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What are you talking about?

BLR : 50 FIRST DATES $ 21.54
BLR : CHRONOS $ 14.99
BLR : CRASH $ 24.79
BLR : HITCH $ 21.54
BLR : HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS $ 21.54
BLR : KNIGHT'S TALE $ 21.54
BLR : LORD OF WAR $ 24.79
BLR : RESIDENT EVIL-APOCALYPSE $ 21.54
BLR : SAW $ 18.60
BLR : T2 $ 18.59
BLR : THE FIFTH ELEMENT $ 21.54
BLR : THE LAST WALTZ $ 21.54
BLR : THE PUNISHER $ 18.59
BLR : UNDERWORLD-EVOLUTION $ 31.19
BLR : XXX $ 21.54

HDD : CHRONOS $ 14.99
HDD : MILLION DOLLAR BABY $ 20.99
HDD : PHANTOM OF THE OPERA $ 20.99
HDD : THE LAST SAMURAI $ 20.99



Blu-ray catalog titles are $18.59-21.54. HD DVD catalog titles are $20.99. How is Blu-ray "more expensive"?



Blu-ray titles over $21.54 (Crash, Lord of War, Underworld-Evolution) are new releases. HD DVD has no new releases available for preorder so far, so we can't compare.

The only title available for both formats has the exact same price.

WRT the player, if deepdiscountdvd has it, it is exclusively because Warner will not supply any retailers that don't offer hardware as well as software.
Old 04-04-06, 04:05 PM
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We've discussed the price quite a bit. The price will be determined by the market and neither will let the other be much different in price. Probably more money to the studios with HD-DVD (higher profit margin), but what do we care about that.

Makes me wonder why HD-DVD doesn't lower the price to where it is barely profitable to try to squeeze BR into selling at a loss. Obviously there is more to it than that.

They need to get this figured out, though. I want 5th Element very badly in HD, but I'm not going to buy a $1,000 player that may well end up being the loser to get it.
Old 04-04-06, 04:53 PM
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Samsung's player is delayed until June 25th, according to another thread. If that's the case, I wonder how well BR discs are going to sell for a month with nothing to watch them on. As far as I know, Samsung was going to be the only player available for BR at this point, since Sony's player has also been pushed back.
Old 04-04-06, 05:15 PM
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That's all very well, but:

Blu-ray software is not more expensive than HD DVD.

What awmurray said was untrue.
Old 04-04-06, 05:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Grubert
That's all very well, but:

Blu-ray software is not more expensive than HD DVD.

What awmurray said was untrue.
Well, it looks like the average BR catalog title is about $21.54 while the HD-DVD catalog titles are around $20.99.

That's why HD-DVD is cheaper than BR software. We don't know how much an HD-DVD "new release" will cost, but it, too, will be cheaper.

Not suprising since HD-DVD has touted its lower cost-- they can't afford to be more expensive. BR must match or beat HD-DVD but I don't think they can. BR software and hardware will be more expensive.

I believe the HD-DVD camp will lower cost to lower the boom on BR once they get started. Kind of a rope-a-dope strategy.
Old 04-05-06, 02:40 AM
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Originally Posted by awmurray
Well, it looks like the average BR catalog title is about $21.54 while the HD-DVD catalog titles are around $20.99.
Wrong again.

We have eight Blu-ray catalog studio titles at $21.54, two at $18.59 and one at $18.60. Hence, the average price for catalog titles available as of now on DDD is $20.74 for Blu-ray vs $20.99 for HD DVD.

So, if anything, the average price for Blu-ray catalog titles is lower than HD DVD.

That's why HD-DVD is cheaper than BR software.
It is not, as I have just proved. There will be slight price differentials due to the pricing policy of individual studios.

We don't know how much an HD-DVD "new release" will cost, but it, too, will be cheaper.
Let me get this straight. Are you saying that new releases by all three studios releasing in both formats (Warner, Universal and Paramount) will definitely carry a higher price in HD DVD than Blu-ray?

Not suprising since HD-DVD has touted its lower cost-- they can't afford to be more expensive. BR must match or beat HD-DVD but I don't think they can. BR software and hardware will be more expensive.
Again, wrong on the software side.
Old 04-05-06, 06:22 AM
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the HD-DVD Crowd is a truely biased one lol. You guys are now counting pennys on the dollar as the "huge" price difference that was supposed to happen? C'mon now. Blu-Ray will have millions of installed systems all over the world by next years end JUST from PS3 sales, let alone stand alone system sales. HD-DVD is going to have to go through hell to keep up with the staggering #s of PS3s that are going to be sold, pushing Blu-Rays installed base through the roof year after year. The format wars are over before they began IMO, since all PS3 games will be made in BR discs, movies for that format will also be made. Seems pretty simple to me? Before anyone brings up UMD's, they were a debacle from the begining, bringing nothing new to the table for consumers. Blu-Ray is the exact opposite of that. 1080p, tons of storage space and exciting new features.

Maybe im not thinking hard enough lol.

p.s. - Blu-Ray burners > HD-DVD Burners. Ill take 50-gig dual layer over 35-gig dual layer for storage and home movie conversions into HD format any-day!
Old 04-05-06, 07:04 AM
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There is nearly no price difference. I can't believe anyone would try to show that as an advantage for HD DVD. My big issue with Blu Ray is still the durability of the discs. I want to see them tested to make sure they are as hard to scratch as Sony says. If they are durable enough I will definitely have a Blu Ray player in my future.
Old 04-05-06, 07:10 AM
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I can't believe no one mentioned this yet, but did anyone notice that HD-DVD only has 4 titles to preorder, but Blu-Ray has 15? That doesn't bother anyone who is planning to purchase a HD-DVD player in less than two weeks?
Old 04-05-06, 07:40 AM
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Originally Posted by darkside
There is nearly no price difference. I can't believe anyone would try to show that as an advantage for HD DVD. My big issue with Blu Ray is still the durability of the discs. I want to see them tested to make sure they are as hard to scratch as Sony says. If they are durable enough I will definitely have a Blu Ray player in my future.
When TDK made their press release about their new surface protectant that goes on the bottom of cds, dvds, etc that make them nearly undamagable, sony said ALL blu-ray media will come standard with the same material direct from TDK. I think that shows a good sign that they are thinking ahead.
Old 04-05-06, 07:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Blitz6Speed
the HD-DVD Crowd is a truely biased one lol. You guys are now counting pennys on the dollar as the "huge" price difference that was supposed to happen? C'mon now. Blu-Ray will have millions of installed systems all over the world by next years end JUST from PS3 sales, let alone stand alone system sales. HD-DVD is going to have to go through hell to keep up with the staggering #s of PS3s that are going to be sold, pushing Blu-Rays installed base through the roof year after year. The format wars are over before they began IMO, since all PS3 games will be made in BR discs, movies for that format will also be made. Seems pretty simple to me? Before anyone brings up UMD's, they were a debacle from the begining, bringing nothing new to the table for consumers. Blu-Ray is the exact opposite of that. 1080p, tons of storage space and exciting new features.

Maybe im not thinking hard enough lol.

p.s. - Blu-Ray burners > HD-DVD Burners. Ill take 50-gig dual layer over 35-gig dual layer for storage and home movie conversions into HD format any-day!
Three things to consider about the PS3:
1. The price of this thing may be outrageous. I remain doubtful that PS3 is the automatic point after kick many are making it out to be.
2. PS3 has been delayed until November. If it is priced well, then it may well be 5 or 6 months after that until people see it in stores, much like the XBox.
3. There are reports that Sony is wavering on putting BR into PS3. I'm not sure I believe them, but the rumors are out there.

I do agree with you that the PS3 will be a huge plus for the installed base of BR players, if it is successful. But that success is not etched in stone. That said, I am looking forward to PS3. I just hope I can afford one when it comes out.

If HD has a 6 month or longer lead at having a player that is 1/2 the cost of a BR player, they could build enough momentum to knock BR out before they get going. The next year will be very interesting. I'm waiting a while, but not too long.

I do agree with you that people are niggling over pennies on the prices. I always thought the two formats would have media price almost identically.

I also agree that it is worrisome that there are so few HD titles compared to BR titles for pre-order.

So many blunders on both sides.
Old 04-05-06, 07:56 AM
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I think the PS3 will have an impact, but I think its impact is being way overstated by the Blu Ray supporters. As mentioned above its the sheer number of Blu Ray titles announced that I think will be its biggest advantage. People may not be able to afford a player right away, but when they see Blu Ray with 3-4 times the titles for sale at Best Buy in a few months you can bet they will not be real excited about buying an HD DVD player no matter what its price.
Old 04-05-06, 08:03 AM
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Originally Posted by joshd2012
I can't believe no one mentioned this yet, but did anyone notice that HD-DVD only has 4 titles to preorder, but Blu-Ray has 15? That doesn't bother anyone who is planning to purchase a HD-DVD player in less than two weeks?
I'm not getting a HD player at launch, but I will this Summer. By that time, there will be more titles.

If I bought a Blu-Ray player, I couldn't afford any titles. If they had one for $500, I might have thought differently.
Old 04-05-06, 08:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Grubert
Wrong again.

We have eight Blu-ray catalog studio titles at $21.54, two at $18.59 and one at $18.60. Hence, the average price for catalog titles available as of now on DDD is $20.74 for Blu-ray vs $20.99 for HD DVD.

So, if anything, the average price for Blu-ray catalog titles is lower than HD DVD.
Well, obviously there are not enough titles for either to truly establish any kind of meaningful "average".

HD-DVD has always said (concerning price):
  • Software is cheaper to manufacture because existing DVD assembly lines/equipment can be converted very cheaply and easily to produce HD-DVD.
  • Hardware is cheaper to manufacture (for similar reasons)

Starting with #2, we can see that the BR hardware is about 100% more expensive. So expensive that there are rumors that the PS3 may not even be a BR player out of the box (ala the 360 w/HD add on perhaps).

Now I also believe that #1 will prove true. I believe the gap will widen as time goes on... Even if price is equal, more revenue will be generated from HD-DVD sales (on a unit basis).

I don't care who wins and obviously BR is technically better on paper, but this is Sony's war to lose.

The best I've heard anyone say is that "BR software won't be more expensive than HD-DVD software". Is that good enough when there is no real differentiator between HD-DVD and BR? They both have equivalent PQ and both have adequate space. But the BR player is 100% more expensive. It just seems like a hard sell.

PS: One reason I've read that Sony pushed back the PS3 to November was so that BR hardware can get cheaper. Laughable since the same thing will happen to HD-DVD hardware...

Last edited by awmurray; 04-05-06 at 08:55 AM.
Old 04-05-06, 09:02 AM
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Originally Posted by joshd2012
I can't believe no one mentioned this yet, but did anyone notice that HD-DVD only has 4 titles to preorder, but Blu-Ray has 15? That doesn't bother anyone who is planning to purchase a HD-DVD player in less than two weeks?
What sucks about that is I hate all 4 titels :/
Old 04-05-06, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by awmurray
Well, obviously there are not enough titles for either to truly establish any kind of meaningful "average".
Which didn't keep you from drawing conclusions twelve minutes after the creation of this thread (which I opened only for the benefit of the forum members to inform them of a new place to find movies).



The best I've heard anyone say is that "BR software won't be more expensive than HD-DVD software". Is that good enough when there is no real differentiator between HD-DVD and BR?
Wrong, yet again. What about content? The studios that announced titles in CES for Blu-ray and HD DVD represent 90% and 50% of the home video market share.

PS: One reason I've read that Sony pushed back the PS3 to November was so that BR hardware can get cheaper. Laughable since the same thing will happen to HD-DVD hardware...
And still wrong. It was the CELL chip yields that they needed to optimize.

Come on now. Admit you are as uninformed as they get and let's move on.

You can now preorder HD DVDs and Blu-ray movies on deepdiscountdvd. You can use that information or not.

That's it.
Old 04-05-06, 11:20 AM
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Originally Posted by joshd2012
I can't believe no one mentioned this yet, but did anyone notice that HD-DVD only has 4 titles to preorder, but Blu-Ray has 15? That doesn't bother anyone who is planning to purchase a HD-DVD player in less than two weeks?
What incredible choices we have. We can buy the player for which there is no movies, or buy movies for which there is no player.

Stupid format wars.
Old 04-05-06, 11:21 AM
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Moved the pricing discussion into a separate thread since it encompasses more than just DeepDiscountDVD.com.

Remember to keep your tempers in check.

Originally Posted by kvrdave
What incredible choices we have. We can buy the player for which there is no movies, or buy movies for which there is no player.
Warner's supposedly releasing a good number of titles throughout May, and Universal and Paramount have yet to announce anything. I think we'll be seeing a lot more very soon...they're just keeping 'em under their hats, for whatever reason.
Old 04-05-06, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Grubert
Which didn't keep you from drawing conclusions twelve minutes after the creation of this thread
12 minutes? No, we've known for months that HD-DVD would be cheaper than Blu-Ray.

Originally Posted by Grubert
Wrong, yet again. What about content? The studios that announced titles in CES for Blu-ray and HD DVD represent 90% and 50% of the home video market share.
Here's a statistic: 100% of studio catalogs will be available to the winner of the HD format war. The winner will be determined by market share which will be largely influenced by price.

Originally Posted by Grubert
And still wrong. It was the CELL chip yields that they needed to optimize.
I have not seen that as the only or specific reason. There is a lot of speculation. I believe there are a number of reasons:

Originally Posted by Merrill Lynch Analyst
"[Sony] still has a number of obstacles to surmount before it can achieve a simultaneous global launch of PS3 in November. We will need to keep close tabs on whether any further delays emerge because postponing the launch will worsen the company's competitive position,"
The bill of materials cost to build a PS3 will be approximately $800 with more than 33% of that cost being just the Blu-Ray drive ($300).

Last edited by awmurray; 04-05-06 at 03:27 PM.
Old 04-05-06, 04:20 PM
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Originally Posted by darkside
There is nearly no price difference. I can't believe anyone would try to show that as an advantage for HD DVD. My big issue with Blu Ray is still the durability of the discs. I want to see them tested to make sure they are as hard to scratch as Sony says. If they are durable enough I will definitely have a Blu Ray player in my future.
Outside of fanboys, the only real discussions of this in the last 3 years (in the news, in forum threads with a basis in reality, etc.) were on cost, not price. Sony always expected price to be the same, and touted BD to other companies based on technology and storage space. Toshiba touted on cost of both discs and the technology since it is easier to make it backwards compatible to DVD. Both of these have come true, and companies have chosen up sides.

Once again:
Cost = manufacturer cost
Price = sales price to consumers

These terms get thrown around here and elsewhere (even in the news sometimes) constantly by those who apparently don't understand them.
Old 04-05-06, 05:22 PM
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Spiky is correct that savings for the manufacturers does not necessarily equal savings for consumers, BUT if a HD-DVD is cheaper to make than a BR-D, then we could see better prices quicker on HD, if they are willing to take some initial loss to capture the market.
Old 04-06-06, 12:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
Three things to consider about the PS3:
1. The price of this thing may be outrageous. I remain doubtful that PS3 is the automatic point after kick many are making it out to be.
Its going to be 399-599, the likely # is 499, but thats whats to be expected. With HD-DVD players the same price that dont even do 1080p out of the box and dont double as a PS1/PS2 and PS3 player, along with all of them being first gen, whats the tough decision here?


2. PS3 has been delayed until November. If it is priced well, then it may well be 5 or 6 months after that until people see it in stores, much like the XBox.
This is true, which is why in my previous statement, i made sure to note by NEXT years end. End of this year is going to be a madhouse with millions of systems already sold worldwide, by next christmas, expect 6-10 times that amount in the hands of consumers.


3. There are reports that Sony is wavering on putting BR into PS3. I'm not sure I believe them, but the rumors are out there.
Those are rumors that are 100% false. All PS3 games will be on Blu-Ray format and ALL game developrs were told to use the guidelines of the added space into their development to help put the ps3 into a higher catagory of gaming. This wouldnt be the case if at ANY point they decided to shoot themselves in the foot by releasing a DVD version of their powerhouse next-gen item. Seriously, the chances of that are the same that Hitler is going to host the MTV Music Awards, slim to none.

I do agree with you that the PS3 will be a huge plus for the installed base of BR players, if it is successful. But that success is not etched in stone. That said, I am looking forward to PS3. I just hope I can afford one when it comes out.
Im sure we'll all be in line for one at one point. Doubting the success of the Playstation brand name, let alone the Sony brand name is a dangerous thing to do. They're both household names. When people play video games, J6P 90% of the time refers to it as "lets go play playstation!".

If HD has a 6 month or longer lead at having a player that is 1/2 the cost of a BR player, they could build enough momentum to knock BR out before they get going. The next year will be very interesting. I'm waiting a while, but not too long.
Sorry, but this is laughable at best. How many of these players do you suspect will be sold by november? 10,000? 50,000? The first hour of PS3 sales will be over a million in sales Worldwide, and how in the world can HD-DVD compete with that? Literally, i dont see most people EVEN with hdtv's flying out the door for a 500 dollar player with higher then average film prices. Lets not forget once a year has passed and systems are available in stores (with millions already in homes), HD-DVD has no chance. When theres the Sony name and a Game system attached to it, it becomes a much more easier choice. And how poor could the quality of the Blu-Ray player built in be? Its got 7 cell processors to process the image LOL, ontop of HDMI 1.3 and a host of awesome technologies.

I do agree with you that people are niggling over pennies on the prices. I always thought the two formats would have media price almost identically.
They are nearly identical.

I also agree that it is worrisome that there are so few HD titles compared to BR titles for pre-order.

So many blunders on both sides.
The amount of titles on the shelf will eclipse HD-DVD quickly once people gear up with all the hype of the ps3 on the way and Blu-ray advantages staring them in the face. I see HD-DVD as the next divx. Inferior in everyway other then price, and even then, it falls short.
Old 04-06-06, 03:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Blitz6Speed
Its going to be 399-599, the likely # is 499, but thats whats to be expected. With HD-DVD players the same price that dont even do 1080p out of the box and dont double as a PS1/PS2 and PS3 player, along with all of them being first gen, whats the tough decision here?
Source? Price hasn't been announced. I don't even think Sony has decided yet what the retail will be. At $499, they are $100 more than their competitor, possibly more by then. Rumors are floating in the past few days of a $600-$700 price tag. Risky. That is a lot of money, especially if MS drops their price to counter the PS3 launch.



This is true, which is why in my previous statement, i made sure to note by NEXT years end. End of this year is going to be a madhouse with millions of systems already sold worldwide, by next christmas, expect 6-10 times that amount in the hands of consumers.
If gamers take to it, and if parents can justify the cost as a gift to their children. Plus rumors abound that some places will only be selling PS3 as a bundle with other stuff, much like they did with 360. I have read $1000 bundle pricing. It really hinges on the pricepoint. Google "Sega Saturn" for more info.


Those are rumors that are 100% false. All PS3 games will be on Blu-Ray format and ALL game developrs were told to use the guidelines of the added space into their development to help put the ps3 into a higher catagory of gaming. This wouldnt be the case if at ANY point they decided to shoot themselves in the foot by releasing a DVD version of their powerhouse next-gen item. Seriously, the chances of that are the same that Hitler is going to host the MTV Music Awards, slim to none.
As I said, at this point, I don't believe this particular rumor, but a lot could happen between now and then. Don't forget, if you believe everything Sony says, you'd be playing PS3 right now.


Im sure we'll all be in line for one at one point. Doubting the success of the Playstation brand name, let alone the Sony brand name is a dangerous thing to do. They're both household names. When people play video games, J6P 90% of the time refers to it as "lets go play playstation!".
Ask Nintendo about how this worked out for them in the late 90's.



Sorry, but this is laughable at best. How many of these players do you suspect will be sold by november? 10,000? 50,000? The first hour of PS3 sales will be over a million in sales Worldwide, and how in the world can HD-DVD compete with that? Literally, i dont see most people EVEN with hdtv's flying out the door for a 500 dollar player with higher then average film prices. Lets not forget once a year has passed and systems are available in stores (with millions already in homes), HD-DVD has no chance. When theres the Sony name and a Game system attached to it, it becomes a much more easier choice. And how poor could the quality of the Blu-Ray player built in be? Its got 7 cell processors to process the image LOL, ontop of HDMI 1.3 and a host of awesome technologies.
Here's were I am going to take total exception to what you are saying. If you think that player cost will not be a factor in this then frankly, I hope Sony's paying you well. Between now and November, anyone looking to upgrade to a HD format will have the choice between a $500 HD player and a $1000 BR player, both of which will deliver a near identical movie experience. If you think for a second that the majority of buyers are going to go for that higher priced player, you're nuts. When PS3 launches, most people in the market for a movie player won't care if it plays games. No one looking for quality ever bought the PS2 for the DVD playback capabilities. I doubt that the PS3 will be as good as the stand alone models.

Additionally, I have doubts we'll see PS3 this year.

The amount of titles on the shelf will eclipse HD-DVD quickly once people gear up with all the hype of the ps3 on the way and Blu-ray advantages staring them in the face. I see HD-DVD as the next divx. Inferior in everyway other then price, and even then, it falls short.
This last statement outs you as a Sony fanboy. How you can say something that has yet to hit market and be independently criticized and compared against another product yet to hit the market is clearly superior?

How does HD fall short on price? Even if PS3 is $500, then at best they are equal, assuming there is now price drop on the players before November.

You are taking exception to people commenting objectively about the situation like we are making a momma joke at your expense. You comment like you have this crystal ball and know things that haven't been announced or confirmed/denied yet.

The way I see it, to the average consumer, in most respects HD and BR with be near identical performance wise. The two big factors will be price which HD has a huge advantage and selection which gives BR the edge. Which will the average consumer care more about?

My guess right now will be price. Studio support will follow if HD takes off. I've long said that on paper, BR is a more attractive product, mostly due to the larger capacity. Cost cannot be denied as a huge factor.
Old 04-06-06, 05:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Qui Gon Jim
Source? Price hasn't been announced. I don't even think Sony has decided yet what the retail will be. At $499, they are $100 more than their competitor, possibly more by then. Rumors are floating in the past few days of a $600-$700 price tag. Risky. That is a lot of money, especially if MS drops their price to counter the PS3 launch.
You are correct that prices are all over the place rumor wise, but based on what we've seen so far and what we know, thats my best educated guess. If MS Drops the price at launch, that will hurt sony indeed, but again, a lot of people are waiting for the ps3 as it is, i doubt those hardcore few will be dropping it all just because the 360 dropped more in price. Although 300 new in box for a xbox 360 with a bigger hard drive would definetly pursue me to pick one up as well, along with my ps3 =)



If gamers take to it, and if parents can justify the cost as a gift to their children. Plus rumors abound that some places will only be selling PS3 as a bundle with other stuff, much like they did with 360. I have read $1000 bundle pricing. It really hinges on the pricepoint. Google "Sega Saturn" for more info.
Yes, if this bundle debacle at launch does happen, that will hurt the launch more then help it. However, places like best buy and the like will still offer bundle-less systems for their customers as they did for the 360. Not everyone is out there to destroy the consumer, although it does seem that way. I dont need to google sega saturn, seeing as i owned 2 of them myself =) I still have a grey one somewhere, but i think it got lost during my last move. Pitty to say the least.



As I said, at this point, I don't believe this particular rumor, but a lot could happen between now and then. Don't forget, if you believe everything Sony says, you'd be playing PS3 right now.
I was never in the disbeleif that the PS3 would be out in february, i knew it would be well into 2006 or perhaps 2007. Late 2006 announcment was right where my target was. I beleive in common sense vs announcments these days, which is why i beleive that sony would have to be out of their right mind to even consider dropping BR from the system for any reason. It doesnt matter if it costs more, people will pay for it.


Ask Nintendo about how this worked out for them in the late 90's.
And again, i emphasize that sony isnt releasing just a game system. It not only plays the hot new PS3 games, it plays PS1 and 2, which nintendos system did not. This one also features full multi-media capabilitys along with the newest in tv technology. The N64 was another cartridge based video game system. If you want to compare the N64 to the ps3, go right ahead, but 2 different things going on here.


Here's were I am going to take total exception to what you are saying. If you think that player cost will not be a factor in this then frankly, I hope Sony's paying you well. Between now and November, anyone looking to upgrade to a HD format will have the choice between a $500 HD player and a $1000 BR player, both of which will deliver a near identical movie experience. If you think for a second that the majority of buyers are going to go for that higher priced player, you're nuts. When PS3 launches, most people in the market for a movie player won't care if it plays games. No one looking for quality ever bought the PS2 for the DVD playback capabilities. I doubt that the PS3 will be as good as the stand alone models.
Maybe im seeing things differently. You say that anyone looking to upgrade to a HD format will go to HD-DVD based on the price. Yes, this is a issue with stand alone blu-ray players. But again, i ask, HOW MANY people are truely going to buy a HD-DVD player and flicks, and especially how many of them will be J6P? Honestly, the #s are going to be staggeringly low. The format wont take off for a while, it takes time to get a good catalog going and word of mouth to catch on. By then, there will be other options, such as the ps3, which has its huge install base setup. If someone who owns a HDTV, goes and buys a PS3.. Then X-Men 3 comes out on Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, which do you think they'll buy? If they ALREADY have the player, why would they go out and buy a HD-DVD player to watch it?

You are doubting the power of the installed base. That is your weakness in this case, baby. You mentioned how if the parents buy the ps3 for the child, i can also see how the dad would buy the PS3 to get Blu-Ray movies out of it, along with the son getting to play games on it. 2 for one. The "Gotta have it right away Videophile" is not even mentioned here because its such a small number of sales. They're a INSANELY minute percentage of the big picture out there. Its been said many times, J6P will be deciding this format war, and that is too true.


Additionally, I have doubts we'll see PS3 this year.
Id have agreed with you before, however, with the time frame of the dev kits out there and the final dev kit nearing hands of developers in the next months, it leaves plenty of time on the table for a big November launch.


This last statement outs you as a Sony fanboy. How you can say something that has yet to hit market and be independently criticized and compared against another product yet to hit the market is clearly superior?
Its rather simple, again, maybe my mindset is different then most. Heres how i see it. Both players play in the same res (1080p eventually for HD, out of the box for Blu-Ray). Both formats play movies. One of them has more advantages then the other technically, the other has a price advantage. So knowing what BOTH players will do (play movies, and same res for both), you can only go by what other comparisons are available to you, which is how quickly the players will go into homes (i.e. ps3), and movie selection (pretty large difference in favor of BR), and of course price of media and hardware. So knowing pretty much everything you will need to know about the format wars before they even come out, you can grasp a clear picture of whats going to happen. This isnt rocket science. It isnt Xbox 360 vs PS3, which you can argue a million ways because they will have different games and genres, this movie war will have the same thing on both, the same movies, in the same res.

How does HD fall short on price? Even if PS3 is $500, then at best they are equal, assuming there is now price drop on the players before November.
I agree with your statement. I might have been a tad off when i previously mentioned HD-DVD falling short price wise.

You are taking exception to people commenting objectively about the situation like we are making a momma joke at your expense. You comment like you have this crystal ball and know things that haven't been announced or confirmed/denied yet.
Im just going by what information is present to the public and what we've all seen in the past. Until it all hits home, we're just making educated guesses.

The way I see it, to the average consumer, in most respects HD and BR with be near identical performance wise. The two big factors will be price which HD has a huge advantage and selection which gives BR the edge. Which will the average consumer care more about?
The price advantage is just for a short while, eventually one day 99 dollar blu-ray and HD-DVD players will be for sale at walmart like DVD players now. The HD Movie formats wont be taking off quickly, its going to be a slow climb, which is why the fact of the matter that the ps3 puts such a huge installed userbase into homes vs HD-DVD which is just a stand alone player, puts it in a better position for the long term. Im truely not concerned about the fate of High Def movies as a retail format till early next year, when all the finalizations, formats, standards and such will be all settled and the consumer will decide from there.

My guess right now will be price. Studio support will follow if HD takes off. I've long said that on paper, BR is a more attractive product, mostly due to the larger capacity. Cost cannot be denied as a huge factor.
I 100% agree. Whichever format wins, studios will be right there following them with their hands out waiting for their HD-Paychecks. Cost cannot be denied indeed, i just forsee the price advantage a slim one due to it being just for a short time.

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