Was thinking the other day...

Pricing aside, it seems like people have a preference as far as which format they want to support. Now, personally I'm all for BR because of the additional capacity and studio support...amongst other reasons. But with HD being cheaper, people just may buy into it if only because it's cheaper. Like Beta, BR may not survive even though it is the better format simply because it's more expensive. Thus, by waiting it out (or letting J6P's get the HD players simply because they're cheaper) we're actually letting the lesser format win. I'd rather not be stuck with the VHS version of HD for the next 20 years when I could have the Beta.

Thoughts? or am I just rambling?

you raise some good points, but what peeves me is that the studio's aren't releasing any info on the titles that have expanded for video release - I am going to spend X-amount (at a higher cost) for a HiDef version of said film, yet I am going to get the shorter theatrical cut of the film... hmmmm
I don't know?

I don't think either of them is comparable to VHS. It was less convenient and lesser picture quality than Beta. Both of these discs are the same for convenience and are the same quality level, although HD-DVD is more likely to need a 2nd disc for extras ala DVD.

It will come down to either content dictating the winner, or perhaps a repeat of SACD/DVD-A. But I doubt the latter. I think one will win on content, and will slowly supplant DVD. Some people may not even notice. Esp once they get off the red/blue boxes.

That doesn't make sense to me though because aren't the BR and HD versions supposed to both have the same content with regards to extras and whatknot? Or are you talking about specs?

If J6P jumps into the frey then whatever format J6P picks will win.

Our numbers are insignificant next to J6P. LD languished as a niche product because J6P never bought into it.

I feel like HD-DVD has everything going for it at this point:

• Price (big plus)
• Idential PQ to its competitor (BR)
• Name recognition (HD-DVD, what's Blu-Ray?)

Studio support is irrelevant, too. That will swing to the winner. Studios won't be able to abandon the losing format fast enough once the other is clearly winning.

J6P is not going to be weighing in on this war for a few years. Regardless of how much it costs, J6P is not going to buy into a new movie format until their are hundreds of titles, and Blockbuster has half their store dedicated to it. DVD took years for J6P to grab onto it. J6P will not be a factor in this war for atleast 2 years.

As Blu-Ray titles I want come out, I will be purchasing them. I won't have a player until PS3, but I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and support Blu-Ray. Then when I get my PS3, I'll have movies to watch.

I guess this works if you are set on a format, but I honestly don't have a preference and will want which ever version is better on a per title basis. I still think there will be cases where one transfer for whatever reason will be better or one version will have extras the other is missing. I doubt it will be easy to support one format over the other without missing out on something.

Not to mention HD DVD doesn't have full studio support so there will be no Sony titles for years even if it does win out.

I don't know if J6P will weigh in or not. At $1,000 I don't think so, but $500 is just not an obstacle for the average J6P. J6P has already been snatching up HD sets and I believe will be eager to get media to play back on it.

My opinion of the likelyhood of J6P becoming a factor early on was boosted by this:

Oy. My own words coming back to haunt me.

Well, although they threw the money down, it makes me wonder how many of those people cancelled their order once it got delayed...or once they did more research? Who knows.

We'll see. A lot of "J6P" types buy HD capable sets and don't even realize that they need a separate HD source to view anything in HD. They go home, hook everything up with composite RCA cables and assume they are watching High Definition content. "Hey, if the little graphic at the beginning of the show says 'broadcast in HD', then I must be seeing it in HD!".

HD is just now finally beginning to gain mainstream awareness, but it is still fairly cumbersome for many people to receive. It will be another few years at least until the J6P's truly "get it", imo.

After a little thought, I have to agree that J6P could make a difference. $500 is not alot of money and more and more people (i.e. J6P) are throwing down on HDTV's without thinking twice about it. You can also bet that netflix and Blockbuster will be carrying the first movies that come out.

I don't know that they will do alot of research. Heck we as somewhat educated group of movie enthusiasts can't all agree on a particular format. I suspect their research will be limited to whatever is advertised the most and earliest and what is the most affordable.

It is going to be very interesting to see how this plays out!!!

Hey, I see J6P buying those Bose HT systems for 2-4k all the time, too. I think HD-DVD could take off like that. HD-DVD could become the "cool" thing to have for their HD sets. Kind of like Bose are the "cool" thing to have to impress their friends (EDIT: forgot, any metion of Bose needs one of these => ) .

Yeah, I also don't think $500 is out of the price range. I know a ton of people now with their home theater in a box set ups and their Sam's Club off brand HDTVs that want HD movies and will go with the cheapest option out there. I think HD DVD could do a lot better than everyone thinks even though from our end Blu Ray looks to be the best way to go with its full Sony support.

Also, j6p also usually has more expendable income than most of us on this site, and they arent going to be as demanding. For example, take my boss, who has more money than I obviously who just bought a whole new system. Since she didnt know what to do for her rear speakers, she let the guy from Bestbuy talk her into buying wireless. Now she ended up spending a whole lot of money on that system + pre-buying a HD-DVD player, without even knowing a whole lot about it. When I tried to talk to her about it, she didnt really want to hear me. Fact is, the average everyday consumer is who decides what format wins and loses. At this point, although I think BR is obviously a better product, I dont care who wins. I just want one product I can decide on.

Yes, let's not forget:

J6P = average consumer = the zombies from Dawn of the Dead (literally). Unstoppable.

Dumb question... what's the storage difference between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD?

Getting back on topic, I believe the biggest factor will be the name recognition. I agree with awmurray. People will hear "HD-DVD" and automatically be on board. "Blu-Ray" will just go right out the other ear.

Once the PS3 finally hits, I'll probably end up supporting Blu-Ray while I can. Although I may not end up buying a PS3 until it's been on the market for a decent amount of time. They'll have a chance to work out some bugs and get some more quality games out. But only time will tell I suppose. I'll just enjoy my DVD's for the next couple years.

I read that they might be making players that will play both HD and BR.

If these are reasonably priced, why wait?

"MAY" is the important part of that statement.

And we don't even know how much they would be either.

I don't want to harp on this, but definitively calling Blu-Ray the "better format" and HD-DVD the "lesser format" at this stage in the game before we've had any way of comparing them both directly is.... let's just say... premature.

Theoretical specs sound nice on paper, but I seriously expect the actual performance of the two products to be virtually identical.

Its quite simple really. They will probably have very near picture quality. The difference here is features and storage space (since whoever wins also becomes the standard in storage, and lets face it, i want to be able to buy a 50 gig dual layer blu-ray disc for 1 dollar one day vs just a 35 gig hd-dvd disc.) So why support a format that wont offer the advantage in this situation? Just because its cheaper INITIALLY? Thats a copout really, imo. Also, the format war wont be won in the first year, it took dvd a couple years to become main streem, and in that time im sure BR will make huge strides in sales, films released and especially the ps3 which will put so many BR movie players in so many homes.

Just my opinion.

What in the world for? I like to ponder which side will win as well, but are you just trying to help Sony out? Whatever the price of BR discs, they will go down over time, so why spend the money today when you can get the same thing for cheaper when you actually have a player?

I don't understand the fanboy mentality, personally.

I don't think you can count out price as a major (IMO, the most major) factor in the format war. The difference in price between the two models is 100%. $500. That is nothing to sneeze at. I know right now, even though BR is better on paper, I am leaning towards HD because I could get the player and 13-14 titles with it for the price of just a "cheap" BR player. Ask betmax owners what good the "better" player is if you have nothing to play on it. Sony is risking the whole thing on not competing with HD on price. $100 more would be acceptable. $200 a little crazy. $500? Nuts.

Additionally, there are many that question if the PS3 will be the runaway success thatmany assume it will be. With a high price tag, the system may be too expensive for an impulse/Christmas purchase. I wouldn't be surprised to see another shift in leadership in the VG console wars too.

I think the biggest difference this time around though from the Beta days is Sony owning the entire Columbia and MGM catalog. Lets face it, even if HD DVD somehow gets a huge lead Sony will not support it. That means HD DVD owners can never own any Sony films in HD without also buying a Blu Ray player. I seriously see this format war ending like SACD and DVD Audio (granted both will be more successful and less of a niche item) where combo players are a must.

I seriously see a HD DVD/Blu Ray combo player in my future. Hopefully that will be what Denon enters the market with in a year or so.

digitalfreaknyc,

Your post, along with other opinions, has got me thinking.

The other day, Bill Hunt of thedigitalbits posted that

That got me thinking. Waiting looks more and more the best option, for many reasons, both hardware- and software-related. I have tried to list and organize the reasons.

Hardware

• HD DVD player from Toshiba with true 1080p output and maybe lower price
• More brand and model choices for Blu-ray
• Possibly universal player
• PS3
• HD DVD add-on for the Xbox 360
• HDMI 1.3
• Final AACS specification
• Dolby TrueHD, DTS HD and other audio codecs fully supported
• Professional reviews and enthusiasts' reports of the performance of all players, both with HD and SD material.

Software

• Clearer position of studios
• Dual-layer BD
• More software available
• Software reviews
• Windows Vista

The only disadvantages are:

• Not enjoying hidef disc for half a year
• Not 'making a difference' in the format war

You know, its a lot easier to just ask a person why they said something, rather than can them a fanboy. But hey, that's your problem and you have to deal with it.

The answer is simple. Current titles will not enforce ICT. We know that for a fact. We also know that this is probably temporary - but we don't know for how long. So these titles could become valuable if/when the ICT is implemented.

Also, there is a rumor that Sony titles will come with a set-up option similar to Avia as an easter egg for the launch titles.

Finally, I want a library when I do get my PS3. I'll be spending enough money getting PS3 stuff, I don't want to have to worry about movies as well.