I read somewhere in the forums here that there is already another new disc format in development which is superior to Blue-Ray (and therefore HD-DVD as well). I believe the claim was that it had an even better picture and certainly had a significant increase on the amount of storage. I can't recall what it is called, when it supposed to launch and the specific statistics but I'm sure there is one or more persons here who do know.

So, can someone who does know let the rest of us know all the details? There are several people who have not upgraded to HD-disc players yet and I don't think we want to spend money on the current 2 formats (both in players and in discs) when something much better will make HD-DVD and BR-D obsolete by 2007-ish.

I think you're referring to the holographic DVD. It sounds interesting.

I think it sound unrealistic.

Oh. Just a couple.

It's been in development, in many different forms, for a long long time. If it was to come out next year it would still cost around 15K-20K for a player and over $100 for each disc. It's just a little overkill for 1080p material. The technology is better suited for future applications of 4K material, something that studios aren't exactly thrilled to give consumers.

There won't be another physical media for movies after HD-DVD and Blu Ray. People who think there will be are only denying the inevitable.

Video on demand will be the way of the future.

ugh VOD barf, if i buy a movie i wanna be able to put it on my hard drive and then put it back in the case on the shelf so i dont screw my disc up. and then i can stream it all over and watch it on my lap top while i'm taking a crap. this VOD is barf IMO.

That is quite a relief. If VOD is actually the next wave (and I hope it is), then hopefully it is safe to assume BR-D will be the final word in packaged media. I think there will always be a need for packaged media, be it for films, music, books, games or whatever. There are just to many people with collector's mentality, just as it is with our family. It's great to have it on the shelf just as people have always had their books, photo albums, LPs/CDs, etc.

Packageable media isn't about collectors value, its about ownership. We're starting to see this with music, if you start getting your media via VOD, the VOD provider can dictate when, where, how, and how often you watch the media.

I wanted some kind of media that is mine, that I can watch in my room, on my laptop, at my buddy's house, or in the backyard if I want.

If VOD replaced packageable media, I don't think it would take off very well. Like clemente (and others) said, people like to physically own things, be it media or something else. Someone saying VOD can replace packageable media could be like someone saying the internet can replace shopping centers. Sure, I could go on the internet and buy something, but I would rather travel to a store and physically buy it.

Considering there is no real VOD yet, I don't think worrying about that right now matters. All any of the providers have done is offer slightly more flexible PPV and call it VOD as if the world changed. Not to mention the absolute paranoia about copy protection coming from the studios. With DVD, at least they've already gotten you to pony up $15-20 for a physical copy.

Part of the reason CD and DVD have done so well is the form factor. It is a good size, not too big or small. And now it is ingrained in our minds. Even if we had a smaller format come out (we already have it, flash cards), it wouldn't be as big a hit. And there will be no reason for upgrading over BD/HD-DVD unless the TV system upgrades again. I think these will stick around for some time to come. Or at least one of them, eventually replacing DVD when the cost is low enough and player market penetration is high enough. (that's mfgr cost, not consumer price)

Against my better judgement, I'll bite.....You've never heard of flash cards? Compact flash, SD, XD, memory stick, etc.

I don't think the comparison to internet shopping is relevant. Total online shopping isn't practical because people like instant gratification.

Comparing it to MP3 is more relevant. Video is digital and putting it on a physical media is pointless and costly. I don't know anyone with an MP3 collection who doesn't feel like they don't own their music. iTunes, other music services, and piracy are already killing CD sales and it's just going to continue.

People will start buying and renting VOD/downloads out of convenience. It will continue to grow just as MP3 does. Studios will like it because it will save them millions in packaging every year.

I was just teasing.

On topic, I think VOD would have to be downloadable/portable to have success. That's the beauty of mp3s, they are digital and highly portable.

I agree, I don't think VoD is where it needs to be yet, and I don't think it will ever totally replace some form of ownership. Unless it is easy to record to DVD.
While I like the idea of VoD, I don't use it that much, and I don't think I'd pay extra for it,. I probably wouldn't pay-per-viewing unless it was a remarkably low price.

dave,

VOD does not allow for downloads to keep/archive like the MP3 stores do. You are confusing products/terminology, here.

If you want to talk about a downloadable purchase method as the wave of the future, ok. But it better be HD quality or it will not compete with BD/HD-DVD. People (for the most part) have stopped sitting at home listening to music. So MP3 has done well even though it is horrible sounding compared to CD. Aren't Apple's downloads 128 bit? Ugh, I won't even listen to that with headphones, but obviously others will.

But people still sit at home to watch video content. And they will all have HD resolution eventually. If Apple starts selling 320x240 videos to match the iPod (or other such stores/players), that will be noticeably low-end when put on a TV, esp compared to a 1080p BD. And the bandwidth for downloading and copy protection issues (since the MPAA is worse than the RIAA) for HD resolution video will be great hindrances.

So I don't know that the MP3 analogy means much since these 2 markets have taken different directions recently. Possible that discs will go away, but I wouldn't start holding my breath.

Yes, but they're MPEG-4/AAC, not mp3s. Same size, higher quality. I find my old 128kbps mp3s almost unlistenable over headphones, but I don't have that problem with Apple's downloads.

Actually, I meant to include downloads in my original argument. Although, I think it will download to either a set top box similar to VOD or a media server of some sort.

There will be both VOD and downloadable purchased content and both will be available in HD. The audio and video markets are very different, but I think their distribution will follow a similar path.

Copy protection will only get better as the years go on and hopefully be there by the time broadband speed and penetration is where it needs to be.

Maybe, maybe not. But whether or not this replaces physical media is controversial. The issue is ownership as has been pointed out elsewhere in this thread. It doesn't really matter if you feel like you own a download because the content providers are trying to eliminate the first sale doctrine. This will eliminate the used market. You can't resell/lend your copies, etc. because you don't own them-- you have aquired a limited use license which most likely can be revoked at any time.

I won't repeat a bunch of stuff here, but if you really want to see a good discussion of this, check this out:

DVD sales likely nearing global peak: report

I'll probably wait a couple of years before upgrading

Thanks for the link.

I understand why a minority of people would have problems with it, but I think that it ultimately won't matter. The general public will eat up the convienence.

Although, right now everything is still up in the air and this is YEARS off.

I'm just excited to see HD disc formats becoming a reality.

I think Mp3-CD to VOD-DVD/HD comparisons don't really go over well because people don't place as much emphasis on losing audio quality as they do video quality. VOD has to grow a lot before becoming anything "mass market". Right now, dvd quality VOD isn't any threat to dvd sales much less anything to compete against HD.

Who knows what will happen in twenty years though.

Here's one person who REFUSES to buy mp3's. until they start selling lossless options, i'm not going to pay for something inferior to what i can buy in the store. I completely agree with the comparison. Sure, most people don't feel that way but...I'd have to say i'm not most people

Who said anything about buying Mp3s?

I don't think mp3s and mp3 players would have taken off as it did if it didn't start out as "free music for all."