Okay, apart from the initial launch releases, how would all of this pan out if all parties dug in their heels?

We've got Fox, Disney and Sony with Blu-ray, and Universal with HD DVD. Paramount is going to release equally for both formats. WB is releasing for both formats, but more for HD DVD (at least initially); for simplicity, I'll assume WB releases 100% on HD DVD and 50% on Blu-ray. The Dreamworks situation is not clear (they went with Universal for home video, but now they have been bought by Paramount), so I won't count them for either side.

How does all translate in the current film scene?

1. Mainstream list

For reference, let's look at the latest DVD bestselling list on Video Business:

1. Wedding Crashers (NL/WB)
2. The Cave (Sony)
3. The 40-Year-Old Virgin (Uni)
4. The Gospel (Sony)
5. American Pie Presents: Band Camp (Uni)
6. Into The Blue (Sony)
7. Four Brothers (Par)
8. Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Fox)
9. Fantastic Four (Fox)
10. The Exorcism Of Emily Rose (Sony)
11. Star Wars: Revenge Of The Sith (Fox)
12. The Island (DW/Uni)
13. The Brothers Grimm (BV)
14. Serenity (Uni)
15. War Of The Worlds (DW/UNI)
16. Family Guy-Vol. 3 (Fox)
17. March of the Penguins (WB)
18. Dark Water (BV)
19. Cinderella Man (Uni)
20. Madagascar (DW/Uni)


HD DVD
American Pie Presents: Band Camp
Cinderella Man
Four Brothers
March of the Penguins
Serenity
The 40-Year-Old Virgin
Wedding Crashers

Blu-ray
Dark Water
Family Guy-Vol. 3
Fantastic Four
Four Brothers
Into The Blue
March of the Penguins
Mr. & Mrs. Smith
Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith
The Brothers Grimm
The Cave
The Exorcism of Emily Rose
The Gospel

As you see, I've struck Wedding Crashers from the BD list, but kept March of the Penguins. There'll be complaints at the inclusion of Sith in the BD list, but that is where it would belong if the current release scheme were already established.

That is seven titles available on HD DVD versus 12 on Blu-ray Disc.

2. Cinephile list

For this purpose, I've used the search engine at rogerebert.com and have searched for the films released in 2005 and which he gave 4 stars to:


Batman Begins (WB)
Bee Season (Fox)
The Best of Youth (Miramax)
Brokeback Mountain (Focus)
Broken Flowers (Focus)
Capote (Sony)
The Constant Gardener (Focus)
Crash (Lions Gate)
Downfall (Sony)
Good Night, and Good Luck (Warner)
Grizzly Man (Lions Gate)
Junebug (Sony)
King Kong (Universal)
Last Days (HBO)
Me and You and Everyone We Know (Sony)
Millions (Fox)
Munich (Dreamworks/Universal)
Murderball (Think Film)
No Direction Home: Bob Dylan (Paramount)
North Country (Warner)
Oldboy (Tartan)
Oscar Short Subject Nominees (Apollo Cinema)
Pride & Prejudice (Focus)
Proof (Miramax)
Saraband (Sony)
Sin City (Miramax)
Syriana (Warner)
Turtles Can Fly (MGM)
The Two of Us (Paramount)
The Upside of Anger (New Line)
Yes (Sony)


HD DVD
Batman Begins
Brokeback Mountain
Broken Flowers
The Constant Gardener
Good Night, and Good Luck
King Kong
Last Days
No Direction Home: Bob Dylan
North Country
Pride & Prejudice
Syriana
The Two of Us
The Upside of Anger

I have removed all titles for which no studio allegiance is known. Also I've deleted the IMAX presentation of The Polar Express.

Blu-ray
Batman Begins
Bee Season
The Best of Youth
Capote
Crash
Downfall
Grizzly Man
Junebug
Last Days
Me and You and Everyone We Know
Millions
No Direction Home: Bob Dylan
Proof
Saraband
Sin City
Syriana
Turtles Can Fly
The Two of Us
Yes

Here it would be 13 titles on HD DVD, and 19 on Blu-ray.

Studio support will not in itself determine the winner of this format war. Both Disney and Fox, two important majors, exclusively supported DiVx in favor of DVD back in 1997.

If the HD-DVD players sell well (and at literally half the price of a Blu-Ray player I expect that they may), and the initial batches of HD-DVD titles sell well, the other studios will eventually come around to supporting it just like Disney and Fox did for DVD.

Even if there is no conclusive winner right away, all HD-DVD has to do is gain enough traction to be clear that it's going to be around for a few years. In that case, studios will release titles on both formats, just as videogame developers release their titles on multiple consoles. So long as there's money to be made, believe me they're not going to pass it up.