mdnitoil

What I think will be even more interesting is when the 3D tech comes out in another year or so. If people are grumbling about replacing their gear now, imagine how they're going to feel when that comes along.

Quite honestly, the whole hi-def home video disc concept just looked like a ill-thought naked cash grab by the studios. Now they have to cut the prices so far as to be darn near indistinguishable from DVD just to pick up market share, except that their production costs are certainly not the same. I'm not sure just what it is they are attempting to accomplish at this point. They are devaluing their product to the point where it is actually less profitable than SD. Presumably, they believe they'll make it all up down the road with catalog releases. Good luck with that one.

Travis McClain

I think the X-factor in this, though, is that TV's have gone HD. It's pretty hard these days to buy a SDTV, and even if you find one, it's awfully tempting to just splurge and go HD. Once you have the more advanced TV, it's not much of a leap to want to go Blu.

The Man with the Golden Doujinshi

Most people aren't going to give a crap about spending thousands to be able to watch 3D. If they did, they'd bought the shutterglass packages or the $200 deal that converts 2D to 3D on your TV.

orangerunner

I tend to agree here. If Blu-ray continues to bite the bullet with its pricing by lowering it to DVD standards and forget about positioning themselves as a premium product to DVD, they will dominate the physical media market, especially on new releases.

I still don't feel they will entice people to buy titles they already have on DVD unless they give you something substantial in the way of extras or unique packaging. Certain titles like Indiana Jones, Star Wars, ET, Lord of the Rings and other sci-fi/action films that cater to the younger male demographic might be the exception for double-dips.

To many eyes, the DVDs still look great up-converted or at least good enough to not have to buy it again.

Got Waterboy, Happy Gilmore and Sleepless in Seattle on DVD? Most folks are probably not going to upgrade to Blu even if it's $5.

Jigen75

When I fist got a plasma TV I was excited that I could watch my DVDs in widescreen form instead of letterboxed on the SD TV. They look so much better that way. I watch way more regular DVDs then Blu Rays. I've had an HD TV for over 6 years and I still am perfectly happy watching regular DVDs on it. Actually I've bought more than one HD TV and still have the same DVD player hooked up to one of them. Now watching HD sports is a different story. That's a huge difference.

Travis McClain

Agreed. There is an opportunity here for quite a lot of titles whose only DVD release was in the early, barebones years. I'll be quick to buy a Dick Tracy BD anyway, but the fact that the only DVD release includes just the trailer means that it's a title ripe for being laden with bonus features after all these years.

orangerunner

Technology has to move forward, so I guess this is the direction but I feel it's really unnecessary for general viewing.

It's a novelty that will probably suit the video game industry best but not most films and TV shows.

Having seen Avatar in 3D IMAX I found myself "ignoring" the 3D. Maybe that's a sign of good 3D when you don't even notice it after a while but I'm sure I would have enjoyed the film just as much in 2D.

Ash Ketchum

I know more people with Blu-ray now than I did a year ago. That's pretty alarming. Most of them, though, got it through their video game system.
And a year ago, it was only a nephew with a PS2.

I don't see 3-D gaining much penetration into American homes. I'm not sure people want to see movies at home in 3-D. I would only want it for certain films once in a while and only if I didn't have to get a new TV set. If you gave me glasses and a 3-D cablecast once in a while, I'd be fine. Besides, most people do other stuff while the TV is on. Who cares if it's 3-D or not?

The Man with the Golden Doujinshi

Especially since it's sometimes cheaper or the same price for a blu-ray/dvd combo compared to just the dvd.

mdnitoil

Sure, but my point is that the studios are merely trading in the SD market for the Blu market. Catalog titles are still in the dumps and folks are simply buying the cheap new titles. Overall, it's a zero gain for the studios. If anything they lose a little money because Blu cost per unit is still higher than SD. Let's not forget that these same studios have been crying about the direction the market has been taking the last few years. So what do they do? They take their next wunder product and completely devalue it. Sure, we'll all start buying it, but that isn't going to do squat about the fact that overall disc sales are heading south. The real goal was to somehow get us to repurchase everything AND at a premium price. That idea is obviously DOA on the pricing side and doesn't look all that hot on the back-catalog side. Once the whole strategy goes, who knows where that will leave us.

deto

it has in my household.

The Monkees

I think it's pretty much inevitable. It's becoming big really fast. I understand there are still tons of people who don't have Blu-Ray, but I think what happened between VHS and DVD will happen between DVD and BD. I say a year or two, but it might take longer.

jeffredo

I bought a BR player on Black Friday (Toshiba BDX2000 from Amazon for $79.97). I make an attempt to watch BR whenever I can, but a quick look at my Netflix queue shows out of about 175 titles half are available in DVD only. I tend to watch a lot of indie or "not a big commercial success" movies from the last 10 years and they just aren't on BR and probably never will be. Plus my Yamaha DVD-S1800 embarrasses the cheap Funai built Toshiba for upscaling SD-DVD (so I'll continue to have both hooked up to my TV).

I'm guessing about 3 years BR will become the dominant disc format and new DVD titles will continue to be released for another 6-7. 100 million stand alone DVD players in homes not to mention PCs, portables and vehicles with players will assure a continued market for DVD for some time. And despite price cuts for BR discs, they are still about twice the price of DVDs and they definitely aren't in the $3 to $5 "bargain bins" in discount stores (and won't be for a long time).

orangerunner

The door crasher specials this Boxing Day (Canada's Dec 26 answer to Black Friday) were titles like True Romance, Lethal Weapon 2, Ocean's Thirteen etc. were priced at $6.95 for Blu-ray.

That's a significant drop but at the same time you can pick-up Lethal Weapon 1-4 and the Ocean's 11, 12 & 13 including the original on DVD for $9.99 for the set of four movies.

I have True Romance & Lethal Weapon 2 on DVD but had no compelling reason to shell out another $6.95 to just get the Blu version.

Then again I don't have a TV large enough to really warrant it either.

No rush, this stuff is only going to get cheaper should I decide to upgrade.

JerryKILL

This reminds me of the VHS/LaserDisc situation in the 90s. The two formats coexisted for nearly a decade, with LDs usually twice the price (at least) of the VHS release, with better PQ and more extras, but the players were more expensive. Most people "made do" with VHS, while LDs were the choice for videophile "snobs". Then along came DVD and both formats faded into oblivion. The only question is what format will supplant DVD & Blu-Ray... downloading? a 3D format? super HD?

ernestrp

From what I have heard it will be downloading content for a fee. I still like having a disc, Dvd, in my hand though. Never got into blue-ray or HD. It is sad to see another format, formats dieing but the day is here.

Solid Snake

I think the OP question is ridiculous: yes, the new format will take over once some small factors are placed in line for it to totally dominate. I've no issue with BR prices. For new releases, I can wait unless I really want them. Buy online people, stores have them for TOO high of a price at times. Hell sometimes the DVD is more than the Blu.

The Man with the Golden Doujinshi

Because we didn't have to flip the tape over in the middle of every movie

Solid Snake

Buuuurrrrrn

orangerunner

Actually new releases on Laserdisc were cheaper than VHS. Usually VHS was $89.95 and the Laserdisc could be had for $35. Once the six month VHS rental window closed, then the VHS was in the $15 range.

Laser disc players were expensive compared to VHS, didn't record, had to be flipped, too big & reminded people too much of an obsolete record.

Blu-ray will be the last major physical format I think.

The Man with the Golden Doujinshi

I'll take that bet.

mythmaker18

Exactly. This is basically a replay of VHS versus Laserdisc, and we all know how that went with the general public (not videophiles).

DVD is 'good enough' for your average consumer. Yes, BluRay is better, but so was Laser, and it never got beyond the higher-end consumers (I consider myself a bit of a videophile and when I weighed the pros/cons, decided against buying into the format and am so glad that I didn't).

BluRay is to Laserdisc as DVD is to VHS. It might be marginally more successful than Laser (thanks to being available in the discount stores), but I wouldn't look for it to push DVD out the door like DVD did to VHS (and like CDs did to Vinyl).

MrFleharty

where are people shopping that blu ray is overpriced? All the blus that I buy are usually lower priced than their Special Edition DVD counterparts. Its just a good choice to buy the better format when its also less expensive. I still have bought DVDs, but only because the movie i wanted only got released on dvd.

Trevor

WMAangel

Good grief...you really need to stop with this comparison because it really sounds ignorant...

Blu-ray Disc is already MUCH more successful and mainstream than Laserdisc ever was (in a mere fraction of the amount of time)....and it is a format that essentially REQUIRES additional new equipment (an HDTV) above and beyond the player itself to even be relevant!

Plus, tell me this: When were brand new Laserdisc players ever sold for under $100 (and remember, those are 1990s dollars we're talking about, worth a lot more than today's dollars)? When were fully loaded, brand new releases sold on Laserdisc for under $20? How much major marketing and mainstream support did Laserdisc ever really get in comparison to the commercials and retailer/studio push you are seeing for Blu-ray Disc?

Laserdisc was an anamoly, a high priced luxury few chose to splurge on and as such never had any realistic market share....if VHS was a Honda or Toyota, Laserdisc was a Ferrari or Maserati in comparison....today, while DVD is the Honda or Toyota, Blu-ray Disc is only the Acura or Lexus in comparison...there is WAY less disparity between the two as opposed to before...