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-   -   do you think blu ray will over take dvds? (https://forum.dvdtalk.com/dvd-talk/565703-do-you-think-blu-ray-will-over-take-dvds.html)

Mountain Biker 12-02-09 10:25 PM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by Josh-da-man (Post 9865638)
Never.

Blu-ray will exist for film geeks and home theater nerds, while DVD will exist for the masses

This

Travis McClain 12-02-09 10:48 PM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by orangerunner (Post 9867653)
As films get older, I'm not sure how many younger fans are going to be interested in "old" films that came out in the 80s and 90s. There will be a few but not enough to make a significant dent in sales. The new generation of Blu-ray buyers that may just be starting out were born in the mid-late ninties. To that age group a film released in 2002 is considered "old".

If you were born in 1975, how many films do you own from 1960 or older?
Unless you happen to have a real interest in classic Hollywood, the older films in your collection are probably Jaws, Raiders of the Lost Ark and Star Wars.

Well, here's the short-term advantage for the studios: there simply aren't enough new releases to rely on for the supply of Blu-ray content right now. Ergo, there will never be a better time for catalog releases. I agree, though, that the longer they wait the less likely the average person will have an interest in a given release. Still, I think there are enough movies whose stars are still active and popular that they will continue to draw in fans who will look to find their earlier work.

There's now an entire generation who thinks of Tom Cruise as the bat-shit crazy guy jumping on Oprah's couch and brainwashing Katie Holmes that will, eventually, explore his filmography and find their way to [I]Cocktail/I]. Why? Because that's what movie fans have always done: see as many things with actors they really like as they can. In the pre-home video era, that meant that stars, not stories, were the focus of trailers. Today, it means IMDB is an important online resource for fans who want to explore other things with those actors in them.

Ultimately, the viability of the format lies in its ability to sell product. And if Tom Cruise continues to be marketable, then his earlier features are viable releases. To date, the only DVD release of Cocktail was a barebones issue. If Warner (I think it was theirs) rolled out a Blu-ray edition with some bonus material--and it really doesn't matter what it is, so long as it includes the music video for "Kokomo"--then I think it would sell reasonably well. Not only does it star a still-popular lead actor, which could bring in newer fans, but it would be a serious upgrade for fans of the film who bought that earlier DVD. Plenty of people may have liked the film but hadn't adopted DVD when it went out of print. There are numerous Cocktails out there, and can really give the format a boost.

But, yes, I agree that the window for this opportunity is quite limited and the studios need to roll out these catalog titles--at least the more easily marketable ones--in the next year, two tops, if they are to sell these titles to the younger buyers.

Sub-Zero 12-03-09 12:30 AM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 
I do not believe that blu-ray will take over DVDs. First off all, there is the price. To properly enjoy blu-rays requires a fair investment, when considering a respectable sized HDTV, the blu-ray player itself and a receiver with the surround sound speakers. All of these components quickly add up to a lot of money (probably more than the "average" consumer is willing to spend). In addition, compared to standard DVD players, blu-ray players are fairly complicated when users (particularly less tech savvy users) have to take into account blu-ray profiles, hdmi versions and the necessary firmware upgrades that most newer blu-ray players require. Next, as most members have stated, the library of blu-ray titles, when compared to the DVD library, is fairly limited. Finally, I think that blu-ray manufacturers themselves may also present an obstacle to people upgrading to blu-ray. As probably everyone that reads this board knows, in the near future both manufacturers of HDTVs and of blu-ray players are going to introduce HDTVs and blu-ray players that will offer "true" 3D for home viewing. While I'm sure some people are excited by this prospect, I wonder how many people that finally made the switch to blu-ray, with the latest blu-ray player and a nice 1080P HDTV, are going to be very happy that their brand new home theater is not going to be able to play every single blu-ray disc, and will, in essence, have outdated technology. Of course, that is only my humble opinion.

gotrice487 12-03-09 01:49 AM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 
Personally I am not really willing to replace all of my DVDs with Blu but will continue buying new release Blu/DVD combo packs and Blu-Ray in general if the prices keep falling

ctyankee 12-03-09 08:44 AM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by dogmatica (Post 9865716)
VHS < Laser Disc < DVD

DVD < Blu-Ray < The Next Big Thing

Agreed to some extent. Clearly, the Blu-Ray manufacturers had a window of opportunity that was partially missed with the HD/BD problem but they also missed the boat by promoting Blu-Ray as being able to handle the film in HD AS well as all the featurettes/special feature stuff. Then the studios shot the manufacturers in the foot by promptly issuing a bunch of bare-bone releases. The biggest problem for manufacturers on the next 'big thing' is with higher video resolution comes the law of diminishing returns. Perhaps that why so much attention is being paid to 3D stuff.

Yes, as someone mentioned many consumers will double-dip for a special film, but how many really special films are out there and how many young people coming up really really care about films enough to get off video games and the Internet to notice?

statcat 12-03-09 09:22 AM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by jpm3985 (Post 9864725)
my estimated timeline:
2010 => Blu Rays will continue to gain marketshare. VHS Purists (yes i said VHS) are still crying over DVD taking over and VHS going out of style in 05-06

I might be wrong here but wasn't vhs phased out even before that?

slop101 12-03-09 10:09 AM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by Sessioner (Post 9865509)
Nah.

I find that although Blu rays look amazing, I miss the "film" feel of my faves. Blu Ray makes them all look like they've been videotaped.

I'm perfectly happy with my Oppo upconverter.


Originally Posted by noworries81 (Post 9867469)
While I'm no expert, this sounds like the Blu-ray's image is affected by the TV's Intelligent Frame Creation (IFC) technology, creating the "video" look. I can't post a link, so check out the first link (from AVForums) when you put into a Google search:"difference between 24p real cinema 24p playback".

Yes, that "video" look you may see on some HDTVs playing blu-rays is solely the fault of the TV and not the blu-ray.

Like noworries says, it has to do with refresh rate, and it's usually because of LCD-TVs and how they don't handle motion very well, so they've implemented this "IFC" thing that makes the movement look smoother, but it just kills the look of the image and makes it look like a cheap (though sharp) soap opera instead of a film. But this is just with LCD TV and not Plasmas or LEDs.

Blu-ray films look very much like films on my plasma, trust me.

dkedvd 12-03-09 10:44 AM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by statcat (Post 9868714)
I might be wrong here but wasn't vhs phased out even before that?

If I remember correctly 2005's "A History of Violence" was the last major studio title released on VHS.

The Man with the Golden Doujinshi 12-03-09 10:58 AM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 
It would have to be more than 5 years. Lots of people are happy with DVD and it'll be a slow push. Price drops, Disney coupons, BR/DVD combos that are priced only a couple dollars above just the DVD(like Shorts) will help.

I don't think there will be some new big thing that will replace BR because that's not going to change the people that are still on DVD. In fact they'll probably stay away from it even more with the reasoning that if blu-ray failed at overtaking DVD, why wouldn't this also fail. Then that format will be the thing before the next big thing. You'll also still have people complaining about expensive TVs and audio equipment necessary to use it.

In reality, the stuff normal people watch DVDs with is fine for blu-ray. Yes, more expensive stuff makes it look and sound better but the same can be said about DVD.


Originally Posted by statcat (Post 9868714)
I might be wrong here but wasn't vhs phased out even before that?

There was a story a year ago about the last place that distributed them finally stopping.

On a side note, the girl that works next to me bought a PS3 from Wal-Mart on Black Friday and has been really vocal about how pleased she's been with blu-ray.

orangerunner 12-03-09 12:28 PM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by dkedvd (Post 9867622)
Ughhh... I wanna break the TV over people's heads when I see them doing this. It takes 2 whole seconds to chance the aspect ratio. Morons!

I sometimes wonder if a lot of HDTV owners really care about the fact that their TV is capable of delivering Hi-Def.

I think the slim & sleek asthetics of HDTVs are more the selling feature than the HD capabilities.

The look of HDTV says "I've got a new TV, not like one of those old, bulky CRT TVs".

It's similar when computer monitors became slim. Everyone seemed to ditch their CRT as they took-up less space and looked sleeker. Less important was whether the monitor was 16:9 or 4:3 or Hi-Def as long as it was slim & a flat panel.

MTRodaba2468 12-03-09 01:18 PM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 
While I personally buy Blu when I can, I don't forsee Blu-Ray overtaking DVD in the mainstream market, at least any time soon.

jPoD_TGN 12-03-09 10:33 PM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 
I personally don't really care about BR and higher quality movies. I don't want to say I cannot notice a difference, but it's just not something that's important to me. I don't spend a ton on DVDs, and cannot justify paying more for a BR when I get most of my DVDs for like $5.

Josh-da-man 12-04-09 12:55 AM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by jPoD_TGN (Post 9870226)
I personally don't really care about BR and higher quality movies. I don't want to say I cannot notice a difference, but it's just not something that's important to me. I don't spend a ton on DVDs, and cannot justify paying more for a BR when I get most of my DVDs for like $5.

Yeah, that's part of the problem. You go into Best Buy, and they have a DVD of a movie for $9.99, and then there's the Blu-ray, and it's $29.99.

The software prices really need to start coming down to be more in line with DVD prices. A Blu-ray should probably cost about $5 more than its DVD counterpart.

Christ, you can buy a 4-pack of "The Matrix" (all three movies plus Animatrix) for well under $20 - I've seen it as low as $9.99, and then there's the Ultimate Matrix on Blu-ray for $99.99.

I can understand the studios wanting to make as much money as they can, but they have to understand that buying pre-recorded movies, especially ones that have been out a few years, are impulse purchases for most people.

Consumers have already been trained to pick up DVDs for under $10, and most of us are going to balk at the $30 price tags on these things.

Travis McClain 12-04-09 01:04 AM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by Josh-da-man (Post 9870373)
Consumers have already been trained to pick up DVDs for under $10, and most of us are going to balk at the $30 price tags on these things.

Sho' nuff, and if they want to move more catalog titles and get my wife and I to upgrade very many of our 700+ titles to BD, they're gonna have to get into that price point. Still, I have to give them credit for pricing new releases comparable to, and in many cases less than, their DVD counterparts. I realize this is just a ploy to entice the masses into making the technological jump, and as long as it favors me I'm on board with it. I only hope that the economies of scale catch up around the time that parity goes away and that the price of the format altogether will be more in line with what DVD has been the last several years.

And, while I'm giving credit to studios, hats off to Disney. When you can make one purchase and have a title on Blu-ray, DVD and a digital copy, and reasonably priced at that, then I think that's a good thing.

The Man with the Golden Doujinshi 12-04-09 11:04 AM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by Josh-da-man (Post 9870373)
Yeah, that's part of the problem. You go into Best Buy, and they have a DVD of a movie for $9.99, and then there's the Blu-ray, and it's $29.99.

The software prices really need to start coming down to be more in line with DVD prices. A Blu-ray should probably cost about $5 more than its DVD counterpart.

Christ, you can buy a 4-pack of "The Matrix" (all three movies plus Animatrix) for well under $20 - I've seen it as low as $9.99, and then there's the Ultimate Matrix on Blu-ray for $99.99.

I can understand the studios wanting to make as much money as they can, but they have to understand that buying pre-recorded movies, especially ones that have been out a few years, are impulse purchases for most people.

Consumers have already been trained to pick up DVDs for under $10, and most of us are going to balk at the $30 price tags on these things.

Prices have come down. You can go into Target right now and find Blu-rays for $9.99 and $14.99.

I've also been able to buy blu-ray/dvd combo for only a couple dollars more than the DVD only edition.

The Lizard King 12-04-09 11:17 AM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by Mister Peepers (Post 9870924)
Prices have come down. You can go into Target right now and find Blu-rays for $9.99 and $14.99.

I've also been able to buy blu-ray/dvd combo for only a couple dollars more than the DVD only edition.

Over the past couple of weeks, the DVD with less bonus features has been more expensive than the BRD couterpart at Target.

Star Trek (with cool Enterprise case): $27 DVD; $20 BRD.
Terminator Salvation: $23 DVD; $20 BRD.

I imagine that the trend will only continue.

TLK :cool:

http://static.flickr.com/115/315008142_a64d4ac152_o.gif

orangerunner 12-04-09 11:30 AM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by Mister Peepers (Post 9870924)
Prices have come down. You can go into Target right now and find Blu-rays for $9.99 and $14.99.

I've also been able to buy blu-ray/dvd combo for only a couple dollars more than the DVD only edition.

The local Best Buy & Future Shop flyers in the Vancouver, Canada area are advertising:

Harry Potter: $17.99 - DVD & $26.99 for the Blu-ray

Julia & Julia: $24.99 DVD & $31.99 for the Blu-ray

Public Enemies: $18.99 DVD & $26.99 Blu-ray

They have select Lion's Gate titles like Total Recall, Reservoir Dogs, Dirty Dancing, Crash etc. for $9.99 but again these are titles you have been able to purchase for $4.99 on DVD over the last few years.

I think with people buying fewer new release DVDs at $18.99, the price of Blu-ray is more of a reason for consumers to think twice before plunking down almost $30 on just any new release.

Drop 12-04-09 11:47 AM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 
Blu-rays may never take over the DVD market, but they are coming into the mainstream very nicely. The prices are finally sensible to me, and players are very affordable for what the average person needs. They are looking less like a footnote in format history every day.

oldboy87 12-04-09 12:40 PM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by noworries81 (Post 9865079)
The Terminator: The Blu-ray Funding Bill is passed. The system goes on-line August 4th, 2012. Human decisions are removed from the sales strategy. Blu-ray begins to grow in popularity at a geometric rate. It becomes the leading format at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the discs.

Sarah Connor: DVD fights back.

The Terminator: Yes. It launches its missiles against the targets in Russia.

John Connor: Why attack Russia? Aren't they our friends now?

The Terminator: Because DVDs know the Russian counter-attack will eliminate Blu-ray production over here.

rotfl

The Man with the Golden Doujinshi 12-04-09 04:14 PM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by orangerunner (Post 9870974)
The local Best Buy & Future Shop flyers in the Vancouver, Canada area are advertising:

Harry Potter: $17.99 - DVD & $26.99 for the Blu-ray

Julia & Julia: $24.99 DVD & $31.99 for the Blu-ray

Public Enemies: $18.99 DVD & $26.99 Blu-ray

They have select Lion's Gate titles like Total Recall, Reservoir Dogs, Dirty Dancing, Crash etc. for $9.99 but again these are titles you have been able to purchase for $4.99 on DVD over the last few years.

I think with people buying fewer new release DVDs at $18.99, the price of Blu-ray is more of a reason for consumers to think twice before plunking down almost $30 on just any new release.

But that's Canada and you guys don't count.

Over here at Wal-Mart, Harry Potter is $15.32 for the Blu-ray/DVD combo. The comparable edition, with special features, comes in costing more at $18.86.

Julia & Julia doesn't matter because I'm not a female.

Public Enemies is $18.86 for the Blu-ray/DVD combo and only $3 cheaper for the DVD only.

Once again, Canada doesn't count.

jjcool 12-04-09 04:25 PM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by Mister Peepers (Post 9871491)
But that's Canada and you guys don't count.

Over here at Wal-Mart, Harry Potter is $15.32 for the Blu-ray/DVD combo. The comparable edition, with special features, comes in costing more at $18.86.

Julia & Julia doesn't matter because I'm not a female.

Public Enemies is $18.86 for the Blu-ray/DVD combo and only $3 cheaper for the DVD only.

Once again, Canada doesn't count.

We can argue this back and forth till we are blue in the face. Bottom line is that sometimes the blue ray version is cheaper than the dvd version. Most of the time that isnt the case.

Oh, and there isnt a reason to be a dick to Canadians.

The Man with the Golden Doujinshi 12-04-09 05:03 PM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by jjcool (Post 9871511)
We can argue this back and forth till we are blue in the face. Bottom line is that sometimes the blue ray version is cheaper than the dvd version. Most of the time that isnt the case.

Oh, and there isnt a reason to be a dick to Canadians.

I'm just saying when you're trying to argue prices and using funny money, it solves nothing.

Canada sucks, I'm not referring to the people trapped there.

Travis McClain 12-04-09 05:14 PM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by jjcool (Post 9871511)
Oh, and there isnt a reason to be a dick to Canadians.

Well, what you don't know is that a band of Canadian women once abducted and traumatized MisterPeepers. Hence not only his disdain for Canadians, but his pronounced disdain for females and films that target them, such as Julie & Julia. He's reasonably well adjusted, all things considered.

The Man with the Golden Doujinshi 12-04-09 05:16 PM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by MinLShaw (Post 9871597)
Well, what you don't know is that a band of Canadian women once abducted and traumatized MisterPeepers. Hence not only his disdain for Canadians, but his pronounced disdain for females and films that target them, such as Julie & Julia. He's reasonably well adjusted, all things considered.

Well, my secret's out.

Travis McClain 12-04-09 05:19 PM

Re: do you think blu ray will over take dvds?
 

Originally Posted by Mister Peepers (Post 9871598)
Well, my secret's out.

Greatest 2,000th post ever!


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