When Will DVD be dead?
07-26-07 | 04:34 PM
#53
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
Honestly, it will truly die shortly after SD television sets die. Once you see SD DVD on HDTV, you are forced to acknowledge the difference. But I don't see SD TVs going anywhere soon. Once SDTV broadcasts are cancelled the government is supposed to give each household $50 for up to 2 TVs to get an HD to SD converter. 
07-26-07 | 04:38 PM
#54
Member
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 227
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Then we have the other group that think that you can play HD/BD discs on their normal dvd players. It's not entirely their fault. They haven't been educated to these new formats being ushered in. "Oh My God!! I need a new TV!!"
I wonder how many people buy these, open them, put them in their regular DVD player - and then find out that they aren't returnable since they are already open.
As far as future movie download tech, the problem will always be: what if your harddrive crashes, or what if you can't save movies at home and have to 'buy' movies stored on some company's server - what happens if that company's computer crashes or they just go out of business?
Last edited by Christi P; 07-26-07 at 04:44 PM.
07-26-07 | 06:14 PM
#55
Banned
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 6,584
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by SoSpacey
HD capitalizes on Lines of resolution. What could possible come out that looks better? Nothing really, or nothing significant at least.
TV technology has changed and improved almost constantly since it first came out. HDTV won't be the last time it changes. HD looks cutting edge now, but someone will eventually invent something better.
What about a true 3D picture for instance? Like in some sci-fi shows where you see 3D projections, maybe something like that could be done in 10-20 years or so.
07-26-07 | 06:16 PM
#56
Banned
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 6,584
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by Christi P
As far as future movie download tech, the problem will always be: what if your harddrive crashes, or what if you can't save movies at home and have to 'buy' movies stored on some company's server - what happens if that company's computer crashes or they just go out of business?
07-26-07 | 06:37 PM
#58
Member
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 144
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
From: San Diego, California
I predict that DVD and HD-DVD will die at about the same time, replaced by some newer technology, and that time will probably be in 8-10 years. Of course, I expect to still have my 400+ DVDs forever, if only for the packaging (at least, I'll still have the nice multi-disc sets...no need to keep the wal-Mart bin discs when a new format comes along 
). But I believe the entire realm of consumer recorded media is on its last legs. By 2017, pretty much every building in the western world will be wired with super high speed fiber-optic internet and content will be delivered that way. No more DVDs, CDs, HD-DVDs...everything will stream virtually instantly.
). But I believe the entire realm of consumer recorded media is on its last legs. By 2017, pretty much every building in the western world will be wired with super high speed fiber-optic internet and content will be delivered that way. No more DVDs, CDs, HD-DVDs...everything will stream virtually instantly.
07-26-07 | 07:07 PM
#60
Banned
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 6,584
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by MrDs10e
By 2017, pretty much every building in the western world will be wired with super high speed fiber-optic internet and content will be delivered that way. No more DVDs, CDs, HD-DVDs...everything will stream virtually instantly.
07-26-07 | 07:17 PM
#61
Member
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 144
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
From: San Diego, California
Originally Posted by taffer
And in 2018, someone will "wake" up and realize that life as we know it is just a big computer program called the Matrix and/or Skynet will activate the Terminator robots...
It never ceases to amaze me how much people underestimate progress and then tendency of things that seem unlikely or even impossible now to be a reality in few years.
07-26-07 | 07:37 PM
#62
Banned
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 6,584
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Originally Posted by MrDs10e
In the mid-90s when dial-up modems were the flavor of the day, people mocked the idea that most people would have high-speed internet connections by now. But now 1mbps cable connections are de riguer. In the early 90s, when CDs were just trying to gain traction against cassette tapes, people mocked the idea that within several years it would be possible to carry your entire music collection in the palm of your hand. Now you can.
It never ceases to amaze me how much people underestimate progress and then tendency of things that seem unlikely or even impossible now to be a reality in few years.
It never ceases to amaze me how much people underestimate progress and then tendency of things that seem unlikely or even impossible now to be a reality in few years.
07-26-07 | 08:06 PM
#63
DVD Talk Ultimate Edition
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 4,137
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
From: Socal
I'm in the camp that believe that HD/BLU will not replace DVD. HD/BLU will almost soley be for the film geeks. Even people that own a player from their Computer, PS3, or XBOX 360 probably won't buy HD/Blu discs because of their price.
DVD will remain the standard for a long while.
DVD will remain the standard for a long while.
07-26-07 | 08:13 PM
#64
Originally Posted by MrDs10e
In the mid-90s when dial-up modems were the flavor of the day, people mocked the idea that most people would have high-speed internet connections by now. But now 1mbps cable connections are de riguer. In the early 90s, when CDs were just trying to gain traction against cassette tapes, people mocked the idea that within several years it would be possible to carry your entire music collection in the palm of your hand. Now you can.
It never ceases to amaze me how much people underestimate progress and then tendency of things that seem unlikely or even impossible now to be a reality in few years.
It never ceases to amaze me how much people underestimate progress and then tendency of things that seem unlikely or even impossible now to be a reality in few years.
Someone could throw out examples of ongoing failures from the mid 90s as well, by bringing up digital broadcasting mandates.
Things don't always tend to go as planned ...
07-26-07 | 10:07 PM
#65
DVD Talk Legend
Originally Posted by Christi P
As far as future movie download tech, the problem will always be: what if your harddrive crashes, or what if you can't save movies at home and have to 'buy' movies stored on some company's server - what happens if that company's computer crashes or they just go out of business?
What? Both of these problems have been solved for years and years now.The first is solved by uniquely identifying your account. Every current-generation video game system allows you to download content on a for-fee basis. The Nintendo Wii's Virtual Console, Xbox Live, etc. Millions of people already pay $5, $8, $10 a pop for something completely intangible. Exhibit B: iTunes. I could go on...
Secondly, it's not just a single computer, of course. Any reasonably large website or online service has many, many servers, plenty of fallbacks and redundancy, multiple data centers around the country/world, and frequent or continuous backups. It's not like iTunes runs off of Steve Jobs's spare laptop on his desk.
Finally, bankruptcy I suppose is always a possibility, but that doesn't stop people from buying downloadable content from Nintendo, Apple, Amazon, et al.
(Incidentally, this was written on my Wii, using a downloable browser that I paid $5 for. :-))
07-26-07 | 10:25 PM
#66
Member
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 62
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
From: Ontario, Canada
Originally Posted by taffer
Yes, and that is the exact reason I will never buy into digital movie watching. I don't want to risk losing my collection because a company suddenly decides to delete some movie files or goes out of business.
07-27-07 | 07:16 AM
#67
Senior Member
Originally Posted by Jonno2006
Yeah i really hope DVDs are here for a LONG time!
As a collector who loves packaging, those HD-DVD and Blu-Ray cases are just plain horrible. I'd kill myself before having a shelf full of tiny little red and blue cases, no matter how pretty the picture quality is.
I love little things like cardboard slip ons and steelbooks and 2-3 discs editions etc.. Those things will never be on those new HD formats.
But yeah like most people said it IS kinda cool that you won't have to replace your DVDs with those new formats since you can still play them in the HD players if you choose to upgrade to HD.
But personally i REALLY don't see myself actually buying an HD/BD player, unless i buy a PS3 (which i might in a year or so). Oh and i still need a HDTV! Which i really want one but they are still too expensive because i'm not getting anything under 1080p. So, maybe in a year or two..
I love to buy DVDs so much though! I have over 400 of em and i really don't see why i'll stop!
Long live the DVD! hooray! :P
As a collector who loves packaging, those HD-DVD and Blu-Ray cases are just plain horrible. I'd kill myself before having a shelf full of tiny little red and blue cases, no matter how pretty the picture quality is.
I love little things like cardboard slip ons and steelbooks and 2-3 discs editions etc.. Those things will never be on those new HD formats.
But yeah like most people said it IS kinda cool that you won't have to replace your DVDs with those new formats since you can still play them in the HD players if you choose to upgrade to HD.
But personally i REALLY don't see myself actually buying an HD/BD player, unless i buy a PS3 (which i might in a year or so). Oh and i still need a HDTV! Which i really want one but they are still too expensive because i'm not getting anything under 1080p. So, maybe in a year or two..
I love to buy DVDs so much though! I have over 400 of em and i really don't see why i'll stop!
Long live the DVD! hooray! :P
I love me my packaging! :P
07-27-07 | 12:38 PM
#68
Originally Posted by rfduncan
Honestly, it will truly die shortly after SD television sets die. Once you see SD DVD on HDTV, you are forced to acknowledge the difference. But I don't see SD TVs going anywhere soon. Once SDTV broadcasts are cancelled the government is supposed to give each household $50 for up to 2 TVs to get an HD to SD converter.
07-27-07 | 12:54 PM
#69
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
Originally Posted by Bill Geiger
Honestly I don't think dvds will die until downloadable movies come into play.
It all comes down to one simple thing. Picture Quality. For Joe Six Pack, the difference between dvd and hd/blu is small. Not nearly a big enough difference to invest in another player and begin buying more expensive discs.
Will HD/Blu ever be cheaper than dvds? I don't see how thats possible.
Cheaper discs, decent quality, no upgrades necessary. Dvd lives for a while.
Last edited by RyoHazuki; 07-27-07 at 12:58 PM.
07-27-07 | 01:11 PM
#70
DVD Talk Hero
Originally Posted by rfduncan
Honestly, it will truly die shortly after SD television sets die. Once you see SD DVD on HDTV, you are forced to acknowledge the difference.
07-27-07 | 09:25 PM
#72
DVD Talk Legend
People like to be able to hold something they own in their hands, or like being able to take it to the used store and trade it in for another, or ship it on eBay. DVD/HD/BD will go away when they are replaced with movies on memory stick/flash memory media. No moving parts, they are becoming cheaper by the day, and should be universal format (no colored lasers required). A flash memory stick about the size of your pinkie holds as much data as an HD-DVD for between $150-$200, but gets cheaper every day. There is no such thing as rot, no moving parts, extremely high data transfer rate, etc., etc. The quality of the image may not even end up being all that much better, but the media alone would make it far superior to any DVD format.
07-27-07 | 09:26 PM
#73
DVD Talk Hero
Originally Posted by flyboy
Up converts to 1080? Hmmm...My 200 dollar player ( W HDMI) only upconverts to about 720DPI. Never heard of standard DVD's being up converted to 1080
or
http://www.hkflix.com/hardware/xq/as...qx/details.htm
The second one even upconverts through just component.
07-28-07 | 12:18 AM
#74
Senior Member
I think there is no clear progress on Bluray and HD to dominate or replace DVD, well not for the next 2-4 years. DVD's fine besides Bluray and HD packaging are quite boring.
07-28-07 | 07:53 AM
#75
DVD Talk Ultimate Edition
Originally Posted by Bill Needle
People like to be able to hold something they own in their hands, or like being able to take it to the used store and trade it in for another, or ship it on eBay. DVD/HD/BD will go away when they are replaced with movies on memory stick/flash memory media. No moving parts, they are becoming cheaper by the day, and should be universal format (no colored lasers required). A flash memory stick about the size of your pinkie holds as much data as an HD-DVD for between $150-$200, but gets cheaper every day. There is no such thing as rot, no moving parts, extremely high data transfer rate, etc., etc. The quality of the image may not even end up being all that much better, but the media alone would make it far superior to any DVD format.
The players for the memory sticks would probally be alot less cheaper than a HD DVD/Blu-Ray player, thus making it a bigger sellers & it would most likely end the disc era.