digitalfreaknyc

Go to an electronics store.

See all those TV's? They're all HD now.

Bill Needle

So what? I have owned several HD TVs for some time now. I also own no HD-DVD or Blu-Ray AV equipment. The two are not sold as a set. You miss the point.

digitalfreaknyc

No, I think YOU are.

Eventually, SD-DVD players won't be sold any more. They'll all be HD.

Hank1215

It will probably be a while before they stop selling SD players. Heck, most places are still selling VCR's and DVD/VCR combos.

darkside

Exactly. Eventually the technology will be so affordable that the HD disc players will be the norm for $100 since they play DVD as well. That doesn't mean the DVD disc format will be completely fazed out, but the hardware will be in time.

With HD discs prices nearly the same as current DVD prices I see no way that one of the two formats won't eventually take over and replace DVD. HDTV sales are beginning to dominate and people are going to want HD discs to go along with those TVs. 480i just can't continue to dominate when most homes have HDTVs in the next 2-3 years.

lotsofdvds

That's because you can't play a VHS tape in a DVD player. But since the new formats are backwards compatible, there'll be no real need to continue making SD-DVD players.

Bill Needle

Again, just like SACD and DVD-A players replaced CD players? That is a far more appropriate analogy than comparing the changeover from VHS to SD-DVD. I'm not even saying it won't happen, I'm just saying it is not likely to happen any time soon. It is at least years away. I think it is actually more likely that neither HD-DVD nor Blu-Ray are going to be the next big thing. The mass conversion of the consumer base to DVD is a relatively recent phenomenon, and by the time they are ready to move en masse to something else, the "next big thing" will make HD-DVD and Blu-Ray look foolish.

I just don't see a changeover coming any time soon, and certainly not by next fall which is when (allegedly) you will only be able to buy the Dirty Harry films on HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. When that happens, quite simply very few people will be buying the Dirty Harry films any more.

Until one format wins out and the average consumer can get players and media for the same price point as SD-DVD (highly unlikely any time soon), HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are heading for the Laserdisc and SACD/DVD-A niche market dust bins.

mdnitoil

What I'm waiting for is the first HD-DVD/VCR combo.

darkside

I think that is very wishful thinking. When the majority of people have HDTVs, they are not going to be satisfied with a 480i disc format. HD broadcasts and discs are the future and its not going to end up a SACD thing.

awmurray

Then someone will have to make a HDMI to coax converter.... just in case you want to hook the HD-DVD player to an older TV.

My ex-father-in-law insisted his DVD player be hooked up to his 45" Misubishi TV via coax (he liked coax better and didn't want to use the S-Video or composite). SO he bought a composite to coax converter box to hook it through.

ThatGuamGuy

Just so I can know, does anybody remember exactly how many times Congress has set previous deadlines regarding the mandatory switchover to HD? I can remember at least two, but somehow, I think there were more.

I'd really like to hear you explain the logic behind this statement. Is it because of the way so many people embraced the superior picture quality of Beta over VHS? Or, perhaps, the way everybody started buying laser discs en masse once it was shown how much better the picture quality was over VHS?

Or, wait, I know, it's because of the way mass culture has embraced MP3s despite the easily provable fact that CDs (to say nothing of all the new hybrid technologies) sound better and fuller, right?

I would say that the best argument in favor of HD-DVDs/BR-DVDs taking over is the fact that the distributors, studios, etc., already take it on faith that it's going to happen ... and, as such, even following low returns, they will continue to push on as if the technology has been greatly embraced. Eventually, there will be releases which are HD-exclusive which people *will* want to buy [I tend to think 'The Dead Pool' won't be the one that does it], probably around whatever the first major new release is. And, gradually, they'll get some people to buy the players.

But they'll also lose the customers that are their bread and butter; the people who just go out and buy a bunch of new releases they've never seen because they're new ... those folks aren't going to walk in and say, "Hey, this is HD-only ... ok, gotta get one of those players this week, plus all my new releases." They'll just buy the ones which are DVD-only.

EDIT to clarify: "My machine works fine, I'm not buying a new one." They will buy HD if the old player stops working for some reason, just as many VCR hold outs are only now coming to DVD, as their VCRs finally breakdown and they realize they literally can't replace it.

(BACK to original post) I don't doubt the technology will take over eventually (assuming they stick with it long enough), but it's going to be a much slower ride than Hollywood (and a lot of posters around here, it seems) are counting on. Unfortunately, it seems like the distributors are not only counting on it, but banking on it, which could have interesting consequences in the next few years as their DVD-profits plateau (instead of increasing). And I would say, whatever else happens, there's going to be a looooooong period of HD-double dips prior to getting the few movies some people are still holding out hope will be released. [I feel like anything that isn't on DVD by the end of this year may be a long time coming, because studios will be putting any extra money they have into HD, not library titles.]

darkside

This year is estimated to be the first year HDTVs will outsell SDTVs. In 2-3 years HDTVs will be in the majority of homes. This is not a cost issue since in 2-3 years HD players will be the same prices as todays DVD players and discs prices are already affordable. Again, why would anyone with an HDTV buy DVDs when they could get HD discs?

The MP3 arguement is not going to work because that is because music is used mostly portable through cheap headphones. Movies are mostly watched in a living room environment and this country has been home theater crazy for awhile. Why would anyone buy DVDs 3 years from now when the HD option is available for the same cost?

For your people don't care about HD discs arguement to work people would also have to not care about HDTVs, but that obviously is not the case as they are selling very well. If people want HDTVs they are also going to want HD discs and broadcasts to go with them. That is a very simple piece of logic to understand.

Again you don't have to throw away or replace all your DVDs if you don't want to, but given the option for equal cost I can't imagine anyone choosing a 480i disc over a 1080p disc when they own a HDTV. In 3 years many people may own more than one.

Bill Needle

The difference in picture between a SD TV and an HD TV is staggering, much like the difference between VHS and DVD. There is only a small fraction of that difference (or added convenience, or cost savings, or format improvement, etc) between a SD DVD and HD DVD even when shown on an HD monitor. Even reviewers are having a lackluster response to HD-DVD/BR. Sure some things look improved on it, but outside of a very limited market at this point there is simply no clamor for this technology.

So sure it's great that your new home theater player can play your new BR disc. But what about your car player, PC player, portable player, and all the other second and third TV players you have purchased in the last few years that cannot? Oh, and your new BR player can't play titles released in HD-DVD. Yeah, that's going to win people over in a hurry. And none of that has anything to do with the display device.

HD media of some type is eventually going to be the future, but I think it is highly unlikely that HD-DVD/BR is going to be it. There are simply too many things working against it, and there is going to have to be a bigger hook to get people to embrace any significantly added cost or to step out on the ledge with a possible losing format.

ThatGuamGuy

One of these years, those estimates will even come true!

The "same price" thing doesn't cut it, because you're talking about people replacing equipment they've already got which already works which they've already paid for. As I already said, when people *replace* their DVD players, they will upgrade, but having a DVD player which works will be good enough for most people, based on observable trends.

Mind you, I also don't believe the HDVD players will be as cheap as DVD players, just as HDTVs aren't as cheap as TVs, because if you're trying to sell people on how much better your product is, being more expensive actually helps convince people of that. If you were saying "my product is much better than theirs *and* is the same price!" the first question people ask is, "Then what's wrong with it?"

I'll give you the same answer again if you want to ask the same question again; there isn't a huge enough difference that people will think it's worth the effort to rush out and upgrade. (Especially when you factor in how many people will hook it up wrong.)

Since you asked a question I did answer "again", can I ask one you didn't answer again? What, based on actual examples, makes you think people will rush out to get them just because the picture quality is slightly better?

That response is not full enough to make sense. Either you're saying MP3s are popular because of portablity, which is nonsense given that they replaced Discmans (and Walkmans, to some extent), or you're saying that MP3s are lower quality because you're listening through cheap headphones, which ignores the point entirely; if you listen to a CD and an MP3 through the same headphones, of the same song, the CD will be noticeably better, richer, and fuller.

Your perspective has been exaggerated by hanging out in forums like this too much.

Though I won't answer the point again [without all the repeating, your posts would be really short!], I will point out that you're making a huge assumption that HD will be the same cost as regular DVDs. (And ignoring the cost of buying a player vs. not buying one.)

No, it isn't. Your "logic" is that people will constantly strive for the absolute best they can get, regardless of any other outside circumstances. I agree with the "simple" part, but that ain't logic.

Thanks also to Bill Needle, whose response to this bit was great. All I would add to that is, you're also ignoring the fact that regular DVDs will look better on HDTVs than regular TVs. People will see that and not realize there's a need for a further upgrade to an even better picture.

If all people cared about was picture quality (as you allege), nobody would ever buy DVDs at all, because theatrical distribution is still better resolution-wise. There are soooooo many more factors at work than just PQ, assuming that the average person really cares about PQ at all.

I'll just say, one more time; the new digital revolution will not happen that quickly. People are buying HDTVs for a whole lot of reasons; I would argue that better picture for sports games is a way bigger factor than better picture for movies.

You're making the same argument George Lucas has been making for, what, a decade? "Within three years, every theatre in the USA will be digital! It's so cheap, and it's obviously better, how could anybody not go for this?" But at least the cost of replacing the projectors would eventually (supposedly) pay for itself. Never bet on the optimistic chance that technology will spread as quickly as the people who are invested in it are telling people it will; it won't, and if it actually does, they won't know why, and you should get your profits out quickly, because they *will* lost all the money they've made and more trying to re-capture lightning in a bottle.

darkside

I love the arguement that people won't upgrade because they can't see a difference. The difference between DVD and HD DVD is so obvious you would have to be blind to not tell a difference.

I think the format war will slow adoption some, but all those growing HDTV sales prove people want Hidef video just like all those iPod sales prove people are happy with MP3. You don't spend all that money for an HDTV and not seek out hidef content for it. HD discs will be a hell of a lot more successful than SACD and if its a niche product it will be a much larger one than LD. Will they match DVDs success? Maybe nothing else will do that. I think the format war will definitely kill any chance of that.

Drexl

I think it's reasonable to think that HD discs could be as cheap as regular DVDs at some point. Taking retail loss leaders and price drops (which DVD didn't have at first either) out of the equation, they don't cost much more now. Also, the HD-DVD versions of Cinderella Man and The Phantom of the Opera contain the extras from the 2-disc versions that are more expensive. Granted, that's due to the two-tiered release scheme for the DVDs, but it's still true.

Adam Tyner

No one "has" to upgrade anything.

The analog switchoff just means the end of over-the-air analog TV broadcasts. If you have a standard SDTV, you can use a set-top box to pick up those digital signals and convert them into a form your set can handle. If you use cable and/or satellite, you won't have to upgrade anything at all.

The switchoff really doesn't amount to much at all. Also, there is no mandatory switch to HD. The switch is to digital; HD as we know it is digital, but digital broadcasts do not necessarily have to be in HD.

Bill Needle

Exactly. It only menas that ATSC tuners (digital) will be fully replacing NTSC tuners (analog). In fact, the ATSC singnal band includes room for SD-broadcasts as well as HD broadcasts. That SD content is completely going away any time soon is a common misconception. The marketplace may drive it, but there is certainly no requirement. Grandma will be able to pick up an ATSC tuner and connect it to her circa 1975 27" Hitatchi set and watch Jerry Springer same as always. She just won't be able to use the tuner built into the TV any more.

rw2516

Worth noting, Congress decided quite awhile ago that converter boxes will be provided free to those with standard tvs when the switch to digital becomes mandatory. Nobody will get cutoff cold or have to go buy a new digital or HDTV. Your tax dollars at work. As the standard tvs go kaput and need to be replaced, after the conversion, is when most will get a digital or HDTV. The 4x3 set won't disappear anytime soon either. Don't know if there are 4x3 HD sets but there are plenty of digital ones out there now. Another hole in the myth that 16x9 HDTV will totally replace 4x3 anytime in the near future is the millions of sets in hospital rooms, waiting rooms, etc. No business is going to replace these sets unless they can get them for what a plain old standard tv costs now.

Cameron

coming back in the 2nd quarter of 2008

All five Dirty Harry films in an Ultimate Collector’s Edition

• Dirty Harry 2-Disc Special Edition (1971)
• Magnum Force Deluxe Edition (1973)
• The Enforcer Deluxe Edition (1976)
• Sudden Impact Deluxe Edition (1983)
• Dead Pool Deluxe Edition (1988)
• Bonus Disc Clint Eastwood: Out of the Shadows

zombiezilla

They'll also be available individually (except Out Of The Shadows, I believe).

But it's funny to look at the direction this thread took for awhile, about HD gear. I bet those folks who bought it back then paid WAAAAAYYYYYYY too much for it, LOL. Hell, ya pay way too much right now!

Numes

Boy, this really needs its own thread. AWESOME NEWS! I hope there are commentaries on all.

Matthew Ackerly

This news made my day.

DirkUSA

Glad to read that this thread is back on track. I am looking forward to the Dirty Harry Collection. They are missing in my collection right now.

Dirk

A-aron

I was just talking to my wife about how I wished there was a Dirty Harry box set .. Maybe Clint could do what Stallone did and make a "Harry Callahan" movie.