fitprod

Maybe in very limited quantites, smilar to how VHS is handled today. It will also be limited to new feature films only. Remember VHS has only been around 25 five years, and completely flamed out the last four.

Deep down the industry knows the lifespan of standard definition DVD's is over. Overall software sales were flat, and if you factor out the TV ond DVD genre, it was a bit ugly last year, at least in the US. (TV-on-DVD price points artifically propped up overall sales revenue.)

2006 will be an interesting year for the DVD business, since HD-DVD and Blu-Ray wont make too much of a dent in the overall picture, and most people have about maxed out how much thye're going to add to their DVD collection. (Let's face it, all of the marketable stuff is already out.)

The rental industry might actually pick up a little since many of the average consumers are getting to the point where they don't want to buy movies anymore. Hell, a lot of the die-hard early adopters, who are big collector's might actually go back to the rental store since they'll be apprahensive about spending money on a film they might be replacing in the next 12 to 24 months in high definition. I know I slowed down in anticipation of HD, and I average about 200 DVD's a year.

There's no question that the next gen formats are going to start out as a niche, but as HDTV penetration expands over the next few years, there will be an exponential rise in HD-DVD/Blu-Ray adoption.

That being said, the glory days of the traditional home video market are over...

fitprod

Josh H

That will eventually happen, but it will probably take more than 10 years.

HDTV adoption is still at 10% or less, sets are dropping in price, but sets that do 1080p are still pricey.

Plus, and lot of joe six packs may by HDTVs, be impressed by dvds on it and not quick to want to buy another type of dvd player for hd dvd or blu ray after saving up for a year to buy a TV. Which will slow things further.

Qui Gon Jim

J6P will be sold the player at the same time he is sold the set.

For those that say it's too expensive to own a set, there are 30" sets on sale this week for ~$500. Not that bad a price. That is 25 DVDs for non bargain hunters.

I agree that DVD will be in the same position as VHS in 10 years. The CP will push DVD out the door faster than they did with VHS.

bboisvert

This is a HUGE point... and one that a lot of people (including the studios) seem to be ignoring.

My dad's 20-year-old 60" TV bit the dust a couple of months ago, so he went out and bought a new 52" Toshiba HDTV. He loves it, but uses it to watch (a) standard DVD, (b) standard cable, and (c) TV shows he's recorded on VHS.

He has absolutely zero desire to pay the extra $$$$ to his cable company for HD broadcasts, even though I've tried to convice him to give it a shot. And he certainly isn't going to rush out to get an HD DVD player (especially with high prices and a format war). He's only had his standard DVD player for 4-5 years. He's not looking to 'upgrade' anything.

I think there are a lot of people out there getting new HDTVs who don't understand or care about 720p/1080i or anything like that. They hook up their cable boxes and DVD players, and move on. I'd love to see a survey of HDTV owners to see how many of them are actually watching HD programming. I'd suspect the numbers would be pretty low.

Josh H

A lot of people can't even afford to buy a 30" plain tv and a regular dvd player at the same time. Be much harder to sell a HD player to these people when buying an HDTV when they already have a dvd player at home that they only use occasionally for rentals and a handful of purchases a year.

I think those people will keep dvds around more than VHS for longer than 10 years, but time will tell. And of course the obvious factor is that VHS was never around for purchase in terms of locations and selection like DVD is, so of course DVD will be more prevalent than VHS even after the HD format is the dominant one. VHS was mainly a rental format for the majority of people. And of course a medium to tape crap on tv to watch later.

Josh H

Nah, I think it would be high as so few people still have HDTVs and the majority are going to be videophiles and others that are less serious but still bought the tv for the HD picture.

People like your dad are still the minority for the time being.

Adam Tyner

Believe it or not, you're wrong. Most HDTV owners are not watching any programming in high-definition, although many believe that they are just by virtue of the fact that they own an HDTV. There have been a number of studies reporting this.

Although that's fact, this is speculation: most people who own HDTVs are not videophiles. Prices have come down really far, and it's damn near impossible to buy a large television without it having HD capability. (I'll even count 480p plasmas in that since they can still take HD channels as input, unlike standard definition displays.)

Josh H

That's amazing.

Guess there's just too many people with more money than they know what to do with then.

Pretty stupid to shell out for an HDTV and not take advantage of it.

That bodes poorly for HD DVD formats taking off fast among these people though, if they don't even know what they're tv is capable of and how to get the HD signal, why are they going to want to buy a new type of dvd player?

matome

Yeah, I bought my first HD ready set, a Samsung DLP, back in 2002. I don't have cable, and it didn't have an internal HDTV tuner so it never saw one pixel of a hi-def signal. This month I just upgraded to an HDMI upconverting A/V receiver, a new DLP with internal tuner and an upconverting player (only a slight improvement over component connection), so now I have finally seen OTA hi-def. I am looking forward to getting a blu-ray player.

bboisvert

Could be. But I do know that the stores (Best Buy, etc.) are really pushing the HDs when people come in to purchase sets -- so they'll be 'ready for the future'. I'd be really curious how many people out there are convinced to buy one, but then don't do anything "HD" with it, either through ignorance or lack of desire.

I know a guy at work who bought an HDTV and thought that it magically made his cable and DVDs "HD" just by displaying them. He's been watching standard cable on it for over a year.

Josh H

Looks like those people are the majority,and I was dead wrong as per Adam's above post.

DarthScooby

Uh Oh! just when you thought Blu-Ray and HD DVD were the next big thing here comes HVD with 300gb - 800gb capacity on a single disk. That's crazy, I can transfer my entire dvd collection on like 2 disks.

I think I'll hold on to my current DVD collection, let Blu-Ray and HD DVD run it's course and invest in HVD when and if it drops down to consumer pricing. I can't upgrade dvd to Blue-Ray to HD DVD to HVD so I'll just watch my crappy dvds till this HVD comes to town.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Dischttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_Versatile_Disc

Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD) is an advanced optical disc technology still in the research stage which would greatly increase storage over Blu-ray and HD DVD optical disc systems. It employs a technique known as collinear holography, whereby two lasers, one red and one blue-green, are collimated in a single beam. The blue-green laser reads data encoded as laser interference fringes from a holographic layer near the top of the disc while the red laser is used to read servo information from a regular CD-style aluminium layer near the bottom. Servo information is used to monitor the position of the read head over the disc, similar to the head, track, and sector information on a conventional hard disk drive. On a CD or DVD this servo information is interspersed amongst the data. A dichroic mirror layer between the holographic data and the servo data reflects the blue-green laser while letting the red laser pass through. This prevents interference from refraction of the blue-green laser off the servo data pits and is an advance over past holographic storage media, which either experienced too much interference, or lacked the servo data entirely, making them incompatible with current CD and DVD drive technology [1]. These disks have the capacity to hold up to 3.9 terabytes (TB) of information, which is approximately 160 times the capacity of single-layer Blu-ray Discs. The HVD also has a transfer rate of 1 Gbit/s. A 300Gb HVD is due to be released September 2006 by InPhase Technologies mainly for the broadcast environment followed by a larger 800Gb HVD in 2007. [2] Optware is expected to release a 200Gb disc in early june of 2006.

gutwrencher

Owning a moving company gives me a great chance to see what others are watching, and I agree, most people with HDTV's have no clue. I move awesome TV's....and then I get a tummy ache when I find out they know little about what is offered as far as programming or what kind of real future it holds. I see stretched images and can't understand how someone can buy an HDTV, yet be so clueless as what it can offer. From the facts I've gathered on moves over the last year...8 out of 10 HDTV owners don't even have HD content pumpin' down the pipes. Sad, but true. A few of my clients have called back a few weeks later and thanked me for telling them about Dish.

A slow change it will be...but life is too short for me to wait and change over with everyone else. Nip it in the bud and enjoy it now! I'm just happy that I'll be in the smaller group. It looks so much better over here.

jmj713

3.9 TB on a single disc, wow... That's amazing. HD-DVD and Blu-ray are already obsolete, before they're even out. You can put the entire 9-season run on The X-Files in HD on a single HVD with extras

OldBoy

so who exactly will all this HD-DVD stuff be marketed to initially?

fryinpan1

More than half of HDTV owners lack the knowledge or gear to actually watch digital high-definition on their new sets, recent surveys show:

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/product...onfusion_x.htm

Brian Shannon

The Japanese have been working on Ultra High Definition TV for about five years now!

AJAX

I notice people are predicting the DVD-HD situation by looking back at the VHS-DVD situation. Bear in mind that unlike VHS, DVDs were embraced at the time of their introduction as being capable of lasting forever. Also, unlike VHS, DVDs have become such a phenomenon, they have become a collector's hobby. For these reasons, I can't believe that people would be willing to give up their DVDs. We've put so much money into DVDs, I hope our stubborness would prevent a complete transition to HD that would make DVDs obsolete.

SteveGauss

We are of course assuming that apart from those who have to have the newest shiniest etc gadget, that this will take off as fast as everyone thinks. The people who have that kind of money like my uncle generally don't jump right out and buy especially in a situation like this with two formats and he wouldn't buy both just to be safe. He sticks with what works, Windows 98, an 18 year old Mitsubishi
Maybe that's why he retired at 50, because he could.

spartanstew

Yes, they're facts. All 3 were also addressed earlier in the thread.

Thanks for the newsflash, but HVD was also already discussed in this thread.


Doesn't anybody read anymore?

DarthScooby

UMMM, Yea...I do read and like to respond to what I read. I'm just stating that I'll deal with my dvds till the next, next thing comes along. There wasn't much info here on how the whole HVD stuff worked so I posted what I did from wikipedia.org which gave a bit of insight on how it works.

So what your saying is that on a discussion board once it's mentioned once that's the end of the discussion...I get it.

Here are the HVD "discussions" in the thread before my post.


jmj713
Senior Member


Join Date: Jan 2003 Quote:
Until then, I'll enjoy the best technology has to offer. And right now, thats Blu-Ray



Isn't the best technology has to offer right now is that HVD format or whatever it is, with 300 GB capacity?

joshd2012
DVD Talk Limited Edition


Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: On the Prowl. Quote:
Originally Posted by jmj713
Isn't the best technology has to offer right now is that HVD format or whatever it is, with 300 GB capacity?



Well, he should have said best affordable technology.

joshd2012
DVD Talk Limited Edition


Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: On the Prowl. Quote:
Originally Posted by jmj713
So I guess HD-DVD and Blu-ray are already obsolete, and they haven't even come out yet...



Well... yes. But unless you are prepared to spend $300 per disc - or whatever rediculous price they have on those things - that is not supported by any film studio, then Blu-Ray is your best choice.

While we're on the subject, why not just release movies on Hard Drives? I can get a 400GB Hard Drive for $240 today, and they could put an rediculously large movie file on there for me. Besides the fact that there is nothing to process a movie file that large, assuming there was, that would be the best bet instead of HVD.

jmj713
Senior Member


Join Date: Jan 2003 Quote:
Personally, I think it will take over DVD eventually, but it will be a long slow process.



By then, HVD will be a viable format, or perhaps something else, and these videophiles will be upgrading their collections yet again, saying "Look at this crazy resolution HVD can have, or this amazing new audio format, and how you can insert yourself into the action via the Internet!"

Qui Gon Jim

Stubbornness won't stop progress, and why would you want to? Your collection won't be obsolete. But you should know that DVDs are not an investment. If you have fun with the hobby then that should be enough. But do know that in two years the "value" of your collection will be a fraction of what it is now. As the people that had extensive LD collections.

Also, a key factor you are forgetting is the CP's desire to move onto something different both from a piracy standpoint and to have something new to sell. They will push for the adoption of HD. What you will see in 2006 is the slow elimination of DVD players that fall in the price range of the new players. As the players drop in price, they will supplant the DVD players selling at said price until eventually the new players will occupy each price range. It will take a few years but it will happen. You don't need an HDTV to use one of these players.

Also just because you and I collect DVDs, does not mean everyone does. It is a common thing to project our opinions and biases onto the masses.

The majority of users don't have 900 disc collections.

PerryD

I wouldn't agree that it's fact that the "3. The difference in PQ from DVD to HD is far greater than the shift from VHS to DVD".

In just resolution, this may be barely true, but VHS couldn't display solid colors at all without noise, and without progressive scan capability there was shimmers galore. And this was if the tape was brand new, after watching a few times over the course of a few years, the picture because more and more unwatchable.

Qui Gon Jim

HD is also capable of displaying more colors than DVD/NTSC. No mattter which way you cut it, the difference is greater. Of course DVD solved some of the problem inherent in the whole system of magnetic tape.

taa455

I visited my parents and grandparents over the holidays. I noticed both still watch the same TV they had 20 years ago. I thought that was kind of funny with how avidly I follow HD and collect DVDs.