They're gonna lose more than just a few. And I'm willing to bet they'd also lose their shirts...

I'm sure they'll try it, but it'll fail just like DIVX failed.

And the MP3 example is a bad one, because people get much more than just a limited-time license when they download one.

I'm not talking about any one specific technology. The technology that eventually wins out will obviously have to offer mass consumers features they want, such as unlimited replay, limited transfers, etc. But it won't offer a physical medium or any kind of ownership interest. It's just myopic to think that we can hold on to the current system forever.

The analogy to MP3 holds. Not only are mass consumers (and even many forum members here) willing to forgo the physical medium in that case, but they're willing to accept the DRM wrappers that come with songs downloaded from the iTunes Music Store.

Like alot of other posters, the reason my buying has receeded is because I've bought for 5 1/2 years now and my collection is to a point I own 90 percent of all the product out there that I really wanted to see on disc. What I buy now is stuff that's taken this long to make it to this media, new releases from recent movies, and upgrades to early releases that don't measure up to what standard DVD is capable of these days.

This has of course been brought up before. People WANT to own something tangible they have in hand, period, regardless of what the studios want for us to have. If they quit making discs altogether in favor of VOD, then that will happen a several years down the road at the soonest- we still haven't entered the HD disc era yet and that one will last at least as long as standard DVD did, so I'm guessing 7-10 years before VOD would be shoved down our throats. Players can conceivably last for many years- there are people out there with working 8-track players, and I have my very first VCR in storage for sentimental reasons. It's behemoth, it's primitive, but it still works and I bought it in 1982......so disc players can conecivably last a long, long time. I still own and can play the first CDs I ever bought when the format was introduced to the market in the mid 80s', so there's no reason to think that won't be possible with DVD. I will most certainly buy an HD disc player and the discs when the dust settles, and will upgrade a small fraction of my collection to the new format as well as buy new releases in HD. I'm not changing my entire collection over again, nor am I going to buy on demand something that it's still possible for me to watch without having to do so. Movies that are released down the pike with no other option, yeah, if they shove VOD down our throats, I'll buy. Stuff already available in my collection, no.

The studios wanted the average consumer to embrace DVD and they have. Wanting the average consumer to embrace something for nothing will take some doing because I personally don't think the average consumer wants it. I own Jaws (and hundreds of others) on DVD, it looks and sounds great in on it's current media my opinon. It's sufficient in this format for me to thoroughly enjoy the movie. Unless I start using it as a frisbee or it develops disc rot, it can be played hundreds of times more at no further cost to me. I don't want to be forced 'buy' it each time I watch it.

One reason people want to buy music on demand is in order to download and listen to it immediately. It's still theirs to listen to afterwards. It's also portable and flexible- you can listen to your favorite songs anywhere at anytime. Movies can't be watched while driving to work, sitting at the bus stop, doing your job, or working out in the yard.

The difference is MP3s are not limited use where you have to buy a license, etc. With MP3s, you buy them and own them. You can listen to them whenever you want.

I don't think that kind of model can succeed with DVDs. Why? Because I can't see a way to stream a film that you own and that has unlimited use. You can do it with a computer, but people don't want to watch films on a computer. If you're talking about buying a film, downloading it to your computer, then legally burning it, then you still have a physical disc. But I don't think a model that requires a lot of computer usage will succeed either.

Mp3s were forced on the music industry. It's not like they welcomed it with open arms. Let's be honest and say they are just trying to make a buck off it at this point. They certainly have not stopped selling cds. If it was up to the RIAA, MP3s would not exist and cds would have much better DRM. If you look at the latest Sony CD fiasco you will see the problems with DRM handled incorrectly. Legal downloads of Mp3s were pretty much "if you can't beat them, join them."

The movie industry has pretty much set their sites on selling optical discs for some time to come. Studios can keep rereleasing titles. The CE companies make more money selling players/recorders/discs. The Cable and satellite providers don't have to worry about VOD taking away their sales.

Let's also remember that MP3s aren't the only way to listen to music. You can still buy CDs and own them. Big difference.

Exactly. Let's see ... unlimited replay ... limited (legal) transfers. Sounds like DVD. Or Blu-Ray/HD-DVD.

That's where I disagree. I understand that the studios want this, but I just think that they're not going to get it. The consumers are in control not the studios. Witness DIVX.

At least with DIVX, the consumer could hold something-- a disc. The problem was, it was a pay-per-view disc. Consumer's are not going to give up owning phsical media in return for a pay-per-view license system.

As has been pointed out, MP3 only exists because consumers got tired of paying $20 for a disc where they only wanted 1 or 2 songs. The industry didn't embrace this idea at all. So, what happens when content providers don't give the market/consumers what they want? A black market forms (i.e. Napster) to fulfill the demand. I-Tunes, etc. wouldn't exist unless it was forced on the industry.

I think a similar situation would arise if "medialess" movies arrived. People (me included) would buy bootlegs of physical media stolen from the "medialess" service (be it VOD or whatever they come up with). This is a bootleggers dream come true.

I don't think it holds at all. MP3s are just a means of convenient delivery. They are burned onto a permanent medium like a CD. People who don't back up their collection to CDs are crazy-- wait until they lose their hard drive.

Does anyone want to admit to buying MP3s and not also having them on a physical medium of some kind? Serious question. Anybody?


As far as DRM goes, after I had to change computers one time and went through the trouble of having to "re-authorize" my I-Tunes files (some were aquired with other email accounts so I had to remember 3 or 4 different passwords I no longer use), I got worried. The answer, of course, is to find a way around the DRM. I'm not talking about anything illeagal here either-- I'm talking about being worried that DRM is going to prevent me from playing songs I paid for. So, I burned music CDs (I used to be content with just a zip backup of the computer files burned to CD). Now I can use any number of CD tools to make other CDs if I want to without having to remember any pesky passwords. Now I'm not worried about losing legitimately aquired songs.

Do you see all the trouble I go through to have a physical medium for my MP3 files? It is against human nature to take away ownership like this. We're buying something and we want to feel like we own something when we pay for it. And once we pay for it, we don't want to lose it. But like a marketing guy I know says, "Marketing is where the rubber meets the sky."

Every movie I will ever own will be purchased from a retail store or an online store and be placed in some type of case and cover.

Like when Congress "Cuts" a program, what they really do most of the time is "Cut the rate of growth" for the program. Change the growth from 12% a year to 6% a year, in keeping with inflation.

OK, let's agree to disagree for now and compare notes again in 5 years. Consumer preferences dictate what technologies succeed, but industry can help mold and change those preferences. We are moving, slowly but surely, to a non-physical medium model. Seriously, I don't need to win this argument now. It's not even an argument. I'm just saying: watch what happens over the next 5 years.

Sure, any successful VoD technology would offer the same feature. But the point is that you can't sell that MP3 CD that you burned. You don't own it. You think you do, because you can hold it in your hand, but the law does not recognize it as your property. All you have is a license.

Circumvention of DRM violates the DMCA. So it is technically illegal, although generally unenforced.

What about: renting movies, going to the movies, going to concerts, etc.? You can change people's expectations. You can make it into an experience rather than a commodity. And you can make it really cheap compared to owning, so that people are willing to give up the ownership interest.

As stated earlier, VOD replaces “on-the-shelf” when the following occurs:

1. Instant access
2. Complete catalog
3. Cheap downloads

Instant access negates the argument of “Gosh when it’s on my shelf I can watch it anytime I want." Having access to a “complete catalog” expands your entertainment library size from bookcases to all available published content. Cheap downloads is the final key. It depends on the pricing schedule for the services offered.

illennium is correct (with one addition). Re-read his posts: this is someone wise, literate, and willing to share what he is witnessing first hand in the industry.

To awmurry: The constraints of "unlimited replay" and "limited transfers" does not equate to a "DVD" type medium. It's just bits! And bits can be delivered (and controlled) in any number of ways....some we can't even envision yet. DVDs are today. Illennium is talking about tomorrow.

The primary matter here is licensing costs and benefits. If you have “unlimited replay” and “limited transfers,” what is your concern about letting go of a DVD-like format? Nothing to put on your media shelves?

So what about the price of a new licensing technology. If it were $8.50 every time you wanted to watch Cannonball Run, you would probably opt out. Me too! But what if it were $5.50 for a lifetime viewing license and portable Vpod copy…same cost as a Wal-Mart bin DVD: would you buy in then? Same cost as a DVD with no long term storage hassles…except maybe a licensed local copy on the new 78 Zigga-byte holograpic disc you installed in the hall closet for archiving your most coveted and beloved movies.

But maybe you don’t want a lifetime license to view Cannonball Run. How about the option of $3.00 for the first viewing and $0.20 for each additional viewing? How about $1.00 first and $0.10 each additional? $0.50 first and $0.01 each additional? Hey! How many times are you going to watch Cannonball Run!?! Somewhere there is a price point that will follow the 80/20 rule. To blindly state you won’t be participating in any licensing distribution plan without knowing the terms is misguided.

But thinking in terms of individual titles is today’s DVD-on-the-shelf thinking. How about $40/month for instant access to any content you want? Sort of a “select-any-movie/TV show-you-want-HBO” channel. How many payTV subscribers would jump at a channel that allowed you pick ANY published content?

All those pointing to the failure of Divx, laser discs, or and other obsolete formats: these formats are gone ONLY because something that offered better quality/pricing was available...not because of some imagined human gene that requires "tangible ownership" when cash is expended. Please! This argument wipes out all services industries.

If downloads are readily available and cheap enough, there is no longer any logical reason to maintain an in-house library. DVDs are a booming technology today….but only for today.

Very well put!
 

Exactly!

Wow, I don't think I've ever been called wise before, certainly not on the Internet. :) I'm blushing. But seriously, your post made the point better than I could.

Well, yeah, but all that stuff is so far in the future, that it's almost like science fiction.

I view the current idea of purchasing a DVD as buying a license. Notice that it even says you are licensed for home viewing only, etc..

So, I will accept a license agreement that gives me the following:

1) Unlimited replay on my player or anyone else's player.
2) I can let someone borrow my copy so they can view it in their player w/o me being there.
3) I don't have to have a connection to an outside source (i.e. a phone line or internet connection or the like) to view my copy at any time.
4) I can sell my copy to anyone I wish for whatever price we agree upon without anyone else being involved.
5) There are absolutely no pay-per-view charges to view my copy (in fact no one should even know or be able to know how many times I've watched my copy).
6) No monthly fees.

Anything less and I will not be participating. If anything less is forced on consumers it will be a bootlegger's dream. Someone will fill these requirements.

EDIT: I'd also like to add that there is an intangible human need/gene/whatever to collect things that doesn't in any way invalidate the entire service industry.

Both you and illenium make very good points. I also imagine VOD is appealing to the studios and, personally, I expect they will implement this some day when it becomes feasible to do so (average americans having enough bandwidth to download full-length HD-quality movies).

However, I wonder whether it will be a winning move for them. How many of us have many DVDs we have never watched? I do (and more than a few). Nearly every member of my family also does (and they are not big collectors at all). With VOD, the studios will lose a lot of revenue from the impulse buys (and movies purchased for the sake of purchasing them). I have no idea what percentage of disc are purchased and not viewed, but all those sales would be lost with VOD could make this a non-profitable scenario for the studios.

Deal. By then HD-DVD or Blu-Ray should be dominant and in it's very early years and people will be even less likely to want to give up ownership.

Bullseye. If they do manage to force this move to VOD, I'll save a hell of a lot of money. So, why would I want a system where I pay more money? Because I own something. Without ownership I won't have any incentive to invest much (if anything).

VOD will never replace a physical medium for me. Just the same was as MP3's will never stop me from buying CDs.

I just like having the physical disc, packaging insert/liner notes.

As for sales growth slowing, I'm sure that will happen. People are mainly buying new releases now, having bought most of the catolog titles they wanted (aside from double dips).

WOW!!! That’s quite a list of constraints. Would the next one be: 7) Must contain a color-printed insert. (just kidding!) Let’s suppose the rest of the world gets unlimited downloadable entertainment content at $0.01 per view, via a metered connection costing $1.00/month. This violates all of your constraints...except for #4 but since everyone is watching whatever they want for a penny, I doubt you’ll find many buyers anyway. Surely you would join us, wouldn’t you?

If you can’t imagine or embrace a better way, if you remained tied to today’s constraints, you will be left behind. It’s obvious that you love the present day DVD technology. (So do I.) But to attempt to limit the future by the shape of the past is a losing proposition. Had you met Henry Ford, I assume you would have constrained him as follows:
The point is the future will most likely have a different shape to it. A shape that probably will not fit today’s mold. To state that you will not be participating seems shortsighted. Let's wait to see what unfolds.

Best of luck to you.

The opportunity for price discrimination makes this point moot. As DiscGuy pointed out, with a download model you can really customize products for customers. You can sell a one-time use or an unlimited use. You can sell just the film or the film with bonus features. You can sell subtitles in any language. You can sell added features or new transfers as they become available. It's basically the same model that software companies use. And each of these modules has a different price. So the ability to price discriminate brings new customers into the fold. You can offer a stripped down package for impulse buyers, and you can promise them the ability to painlessly "upgrade" later. (Incidentally, you can see how this model also eliminates the double dip.)

A very good point. And nice to know I'm not the only one in this boat. <smile> At last count, I have over 1,700 DVDs....and I've only watched a little less than 350.

If you want to make a serious point, it is best to avoid hyperbole. Surely you don't even begin to believe that such a preposterous system would or could ever exist. Let's keep this in the realm of the reasonable and likely scenario. Every "constraint" defined by awmurray is one that exists today with DVDs.

Is it reasonable to say that, just because a delivery mechanism is newer, it is inherently better (for the consumer)? That is what I have inferred from everything you wrote.

I don't see this model as better for me. It will add constriants and limitations that are not currently imposed on me, and make it more cumbersome to work around those limitations (if it is at all possible). And, it leaves me at the mercy of technologies that can easily fail (internet connections and hard drives) and corporations notorious for their greed. I have absolutely no doubt that any licenses granted via this new model would include a "subject to change without notice" clause.

I haven't even got around to downloading MP3s yet.

I am not interested in downloading anything. I like having a hard product in my hands. And considering the films I am interested owning I don't see the VOD option being suitable for my taste. I also like having a nice design (cover work) provided for my DVDs, it is part of the hobby that compliments the film you own. Simple as that!!

Ciao,
Pro-B