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Qui Gon Jim 12-12-05 01:40 AM

One thing that I personally would really miss is the "game" of finding the stuff I want for my collection at a good price. There would be no retailers competing for my dollar, no rebates or special offers like we have today.

Someday in the very distant future it may make sense to have a media-less format, but connection speeds need to increase dramaticaally to make this viable.

DiscGuy 12-12-05 01:43 AM


Originally Posted by awmurray
Now, as a studio/content provider, based on my spending habits, would you rather me use the renting model or the owning model???

Historical spending will not decide future technology. How many people said “I’ve never rented a video and never will” and then became NetFlix customers because of the value (service, price, features, selection, speed, etc) NetFlix offered? Perhaps some of these people didn’t care for the hassles of driving to the rental store, late fees, limited selection, etc. They stated “renting videos was too much trouble and something they would never do.” Like you, their spending habits showed that there was no profit to be made in this arena…..until a value-added service appeared. How many DVD’s were rented in 1995? Zero! Did that mean the DVD-rental business was not viable? No, only that it hadn’t been done yet.

Your historical spending habits (which are very similar to mine by the way) reflect the market choices that were available to you. There has not been a “licensing” model that focused on your needs so you have no expenditures in that area. If a studio/content provider creates a new “licensing” model that delivers value (price, selection, features, quality, etc.), and fills a mass-market demand, spending habits will change.

DiscGuy 12-12-05 01:52 AM


Originally Posted by Terrell
That's 50 minutes to download a gig. So if it takes almost an hour to download a gig, think about how long it would take to download a full 4.3 or 4.7 gigs. Even if you had a 6Mbps service, it would take you almost a couple of hours. Now think about how long it would take to download 30-40 gig hi-def DVD.

You don't need to download the entire program before starting playback.


Originally Posted by Terrell
...even with broadband, it will take hours to download a DVD file, hi-def or not. Considering most people are still on dialup, it's not even an option.

I agree! It won't work today. We're talking about near-future technology advances.

Terrell 12-12-05 02:13 AM


Exactly! Something that stores massive amount of bits! Your numerous arguments concerning PCs can be disregarded. Think future technologies!
Okay, I'm assuming millions of consumers will have to willing pay for this? Strike one!


Then choose a “downloadable copy” license (like a DVD….only locally stored on some storage system in your home).
As with all things digital, what happens if and when that file gets corrupted or the hard drive fails? It happens. Then I have to buy another license of another digital file, that may also get corrupted in the future. In order to backup, I'd have to buy DVDs and do a lot of burning. This basically kills the idea of it being a disc-less system. Strike two! Don't have to worry about this with DVDs. I've heard of DVD rot, but it's rare in my experience. I've owned many LDs and a couple of hundred of DVDs, and not one of them is damaged in any way or ever shown signs of rot. I'm confident in being able to count on my DVDs working for as long as I have them. That's just one advantage of having a hard copy such as a DVD.


VOD can be a huge success
It already is a success, on a limited scale. Why does it have to succeed at the expense of DVDs or holographic disc? Studios bitching about cost doesn't hold water with me. It doesn't cost much at all for a studio to make a DVD. They make that money back plus huge profits.


But you pick: Do you want to own a copy or just view it once?
Ah, there's the rub. Do I get to choose to buy a DVD and own that instead. If so, I don't need the VOD. ;)


You’re kidding, right? Log on, select title, download starts. In 1-2 minutes, you start viewing your program.
Suppose I don't want to watch it now. It still takes a long time. You have to ask these questions.


When VOD advances to the point that distributing content over physical media is no longer cost effective or even desired, physical media will cease to exist.
The "no longer cost effective" argument doesn't hold water, as I said above. It doesn't cost studios much to make a DVD, especially considering the huge profits they're making off of DVDs. One of the great things about owning DVDs is having the hard copy. Looking at my shelf and seeing what's there is a gratification you don't get with VOD.


As I have said, both technologies (VOD and bandwidth) need to advance.
The problem is by the time bandwidth has advanced to the point where most of the country has it, you and I will be too old to give damn whether this advanced VOD even exists. Strike three!


If VOD can meet “the-better-value” test, DVDs will fade away.
But I don't see VOD killing off DVDs, HD DVDs, or holographic disc in my lifetime. In order for VOD to get to where you're talking about, it will take a hellacious effort. Far more effort than is currently being spent in that direction. Other than TIVO and DVR type systems, the new technologies don't even seem to be going towards VOD. They're going towards better compression, smaller size, etc. For instance, holographic disc. I'd take holographic disc over the most advanced VOD ever devised.

DiscGuy 12-12-05 03:59 AM


Okay, I'm assuming millions of consumers will have to willing pay for this?
Right! Someone always has to pay for technology advances! Or did you believe all the changes in the world came through natural evolution?. STRIKE ONE!


As with all things digital, what happens if and when that file gets corrupted or the hard drive fails? It happens. Then I have to buy another license of another digital file, that may also get corrupted in the future. In order to backup, I'd have to buy DVDs and do a lot of burning. This basically kills the idea of it being a disc-less system. Strike two! Don't have to worry about this with DVDs. I've heard of DVD rot, but it's rare in my experience. I've owned many LDs and a couple of hundred of DVDs, and not one of them is damaged in any way or ever shown signs of rot. I'm confident in being able to count on my DVDs working for as long as I have them. That's just one advantage of having a hard copy such as a DVD.
When LDs first came out, we were told they would last forever. “Nothing touches them but a beam of light”. While more durable then tape, all discs have a failure rate. There’s layer separation, corrosive effects…..how about scratches? But moreover, if you knew anything about current digital data storage techniques, you would know that data integrity can be assured with several different data redundancy philosophies. If you’re apprehensive about storing movies in digital files, how do you sleep at night knowing that banking records, government records, and most all information content in the civilized world is stored digitally. STRIKE TWO!!!!!


VOD already is a success, on a limited scale. Why does it have to succeed at the expense of DVDs or holographic disc? Studios bitching about cost doesn't hold water with me. It doesn't cost much at all for a studio to make a DVD. They make that money back plus huge profits.
By “success on a limited scale” I assume you are talking about MOVIELINK.COM or CINEMANOW.COM. These are the still first generations of movie VOD products tied to PCs. As the industry matures and technologies advance, look for the kinds of features and pricing options we are talking about here. And by the way: making discs is still more expensive than not making discs STRIKE THREE! OUT 1!


Do I get to choose to buy a DVD and own that instead. If so, I don't need the VOD.
You still don’t get it. VOD can offer more advantages than “ownership”. You download a copy on VOD and you own the copy, just like the DVD. The director comes in and does a commentary, you download the incremental material. The original mastering had an error, you download a corrected mastering. You want the previous version before the director made changes, you download the previous version. It’s about choices. And ease of access. STRIKE ONE!


Suppose I don't want to watch it now. It still takes a long time. You have to ask these questions.
Doesn’t matter when you want to watch it. You can start watching it one minute after the download starts and anytime thereafter. Download time is dependant on file size and speed….both of which will be improved upon. STRIKE TWO!


The "no longer cost effective" argument doesn't hold water, as I said above. It doesn't cost studios much to make a DVD, especially considering the huge profits they're making off of DVDs. One of the great things about owning DVDs is having the hard copy. Looking at my shelf and seeing what's there is a gratification you don't get with VOD.
Still cheaper not to make discs than to make discs! One of the StarWars DVDs has the surround channels reversed. LucasFilms claims this is a “creative decision” instead of an error. Do you think the cost of producing and distributing corrected discs has any bearing on this explanation? In any event, ”No longer cost effective” referred to consumers. If discs cost $20.00 in the store but can be downloaded for $10.00….STRIKE THREE! OUT 2!


The problem is by the time bandwidth has advanced to the point where most of the country has it, you and I will be too old to give damn whether this advanced VOD even exists.
Really? You don’t have a lot of faith in technology do you. Or else you are over 80 years old! BALL


But I don't see VOD killing off DVDs, HD DVDs, or holographic disc in my lifetime. In order for VOD to get to where you're talking about, it will take a hellacious effort. Far more effort than is currently being spent in that direction. Other than TIVO and DVR type systems, the new technologies don't even seem to be going towards VOD. They're going towards better compression, smaller size, etc. For instance, holographic disc. I'd take holographic disc over the most advanced VOD ever devised.
You refute your own argument that “technologies don’t even seem to be going towards VOD”. TIVO and DVR are today’s evidence that technologies are indeed moving toward VOD. Are you blind to the new video iPod already selling millions of downloads? STRIKE ONE. Look at the news clipping posted above that says:


“The migration to next-generation High Definition optical disc formats is not going smoothly,” says Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat analyst. “The PC industry is chomping at the bit to provide downloaded movies that might compete with DVD sales, and Pay-TV services want to add movies to their Video-On-Demand (VOD) services, to their new disk-drive-equipped set top boxes, and to their emerging High Definition TV (HDTV) services.”
These will be the second generation VOD services. Soon after, a mass market, user friendly, reliable VOD service will grow out of these early endeavors. NetFlix wants VOD badly. Check out their research expenditures. MicroSoft and major cable companies see VOD as a huge profit center. Even Google is in the VOD arena. Do you really believe these companies are sitting on their hands waiting for natural evolution to deliver a solution? The technological challenges to VOD are not that great. You believe that technology moving toward better compression only supports smaller sizes? Improved compression algorithms greatly reduces bandwidth requirements and moves us closer to a workable VOD product. STRIKE TWO

You still choose a static, disconnected format (holographic disc) to a networked type product. The problem with any disc format is that once pressed, what you get is what you get. With an on-line connected type product, not only do you get the first pressing, you have access to all versions, correction, updates, and additional content. Discs are static. On-line files can be dynamic. STRIKE THREE OUT 3 GAME OVER!

nightmaster 12-12-05 06:15 AM

DiscGuy, you HAVE to have stock in VOD, that's all I can figure out :).

Michael Corvin 12-12-05 07:46 AM

:lol: , nightmaster. I think so. Why is it so hard to grasp the fact that people want something physical to hold for their dollar?

If society only wanted a discless medium, CDs wouldn't be on shelves right now. MP3s are much easier to use/download/burn but here we are 7-8 years into MP3 and CDs are going nowhere. MP3s can be had by anyone with an internet connection due to their size. Movies will require broadband and as long as the cable companies are in charge of that, the average PC user isn't going to drop $50 a month for access. They want their AOL for $22 a month.

There are also too many problems that could go wrong with a PC, especially a windows based one. I've bought tunes and lost them. I'm not buying them again. Sure there is a risk of a media based format rotting or screwing up, but it has to be a lot smaller percentage than a file getting corrupt or hard drive going bad, etc. Also, with media, you lose 1 movie. Your hard drive goes down, so does your entire collection.

dadaluholla 12-12-05 08:06 AM

DVD (like VHS before it) has grown to be a major part of the holiday/birthday gift giving and receiving in the world I live in. How are you going to exchange gifts at Christmas with this VOD crap? "Oh here, I wrapped up this non physical media for you to enjoy"?

awmurray 12-12-05 09:33 AM


Originally Posted by DiscGuy
There has not been a “licensing” model that focused on your needs so you have no expenditures in that area. If a studio/content provider creates a new “licensing” model that delivers value (price, selection, features, quality, etc.), and fills a mass-market demand, spending habits will change.

This was my point. There can't ever be a licensing model that will ever focus on my needs because I'm not interested in a licensing model. If they do shove this down my throat, I'll save a lot of money. Bring it on.

awmurray 12-12-05 09:35 AM


Originally Posted by DiscGuy
I agree! It won't work today. We're talking about near-future technology advances.

This reminds me of the folks in the 50's who said we'd all be using flying cars in the next 50 years.

Terrell 12-12-05 12:32 PM


This was my point. There can't ever be a licensing model that will ever focus on my needs because I'm not interested in a licensing model.
Exactly! DiscGuy just doesn't get it. I don't want his VOD, especially not at the expense of a physical format. I'd be willing to bet most people don't either, as they'd rather have a physical object. I enjoy Tivo, but not at the expense of DVDs.


If you’re apprehensive about storing movies in digital files, how do you sleep at night knowing that banking records, government records, and most all information content in the civilized world is stored digitally.
I work in the financial industry, and at the end of those digital files is still the dollars. Plus they have backup upon backup, including information backed up on paper files. My bank money is 10 times more secure than a digital movie file on a hard drive would ever be. I've never lost any money at the bank. I've lost many digital files due to hard drive failure or corruption.


When LDs first came out, we were told they would last forever.
I never had an LD or DVD go bad. As I said earlier, I've lost many digital files. Case closed.


You still don’t get it. VOD can offer more advantages than “ownership”. You download a copy on VOD and you own the copy, just like the DVD. The director comes in and does a commentary, you download the incremental material. The original mastering had an error, you download a corrected mastering. You want the previous version before the director made changes, you download the previous version. It’s about choices. And ease of access.
We have all that with DVDs, just in a different way. Ownership is everything, and I have that with DVDs. My DVDs have directors commentary. They have bonus material. Any errors I've had were fixed. You're assuming a lot concerning this VOD, since it doesn't even exist yet. How do you even know a studio would offer a correct master, or even admit the original had a mastering error? You don't.


“The migration to next-generation High Definition optical disc formats is not going smoothly,” says Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat analyst. “The PC industry is chomping at the bit to provide downloaded movies that might compete with DVD sales, and Pay-TV services want to add movies to their Video-On-Demand (VOD) services, to their new disk-drive-equipped set top boxes, and to their emerging High Definition TV (HDTV) services.”
Since this is getting old, I'll end up here. That statement doesn't prove a thing. It's a statement by an analyst on a format that hasn't even hit the market yet. The only problems hi-def is having are disagreements between the two competing formats. There's nothing at all wrong with the technology. DVD sure as hell has had no trouble being a major success against these new types of services. Neither will hi-def DVD when a format is decided, assuming holographic disc doesn't beat it to the punch.

Spiky 12-12-05 02:57 PM

Great discussion. I'll just add a very, very short comment. :lies:


Originally Posted by illennium
For example, the analogy to books makes no sense: meatspace books are consumed differently from e-books, whereas films on a DVD and downloaded films are both digital and both consumed in the same way. I mean, reading e-books hurts my eyes (am I the only one?).

Your monitor is too bright. And/or you are reading with too small of a font for the distance to your eyes.

What downloaded films? The ones in your theoretical world of the future. Sorry, but I don't see that theory being proven any time soon. Read below for specifics.


Originally Posted by illennium
A second example: the argument that customer preference wins out is initially appealing but fails to take into consideration both the complex economic factors at play and the fact that customer preferences change over time (and can be changed by, among other things, the content industry itself). A shift from a quasi-property paradigm to a license paradigm entails a completely different business model that may not currently exist for any given product, but is probably more like the one used for software than CDs or DVDs. Objections such as "but industry will lose money on X" have to be evaluated in light of the new (currently theoretical) business model rather than the current one.

But you are assuming a great deal, here. You keep saying that awmurray and others are not considering this side, but you are not considering the other side fully, either. The future is unknown, and regardless of your contacts, you may be wrong. Frankly, I think a complete VOD takeover of in-hand media is not likely in the next 2 decades. Whether it is possible after that time period I can't answer intelligently this decade. But I doubt it.


Originally Posted by DiscGuy
If you downloaded a “lifetime copy”, just keep watching it!

Download and save whatever content you want. Replay it anytime you want.

Why is it so hard to believe studios wouldn’t sell a lifetime license? Lifetime license or “forever” license is what we have now. You buy the bits, you own a copy. In today’s DVD model the bits are stored on a plastic disc. It lasts until the disc wears out. In the VOD model the bits are stored … well? … on a hard drive, on a holographic disc, on a chip, or on some new storage technology to be developed.

You are dreaming. The studios are clearly not interested in such a system. They wish to restrict our usage more, not less.


Originally Posted by DiscGuy
Imagine instant access to new releases. Instant access to new versions (updates). The star comes in and records a new commentary? Download it! Mastering errors (misframing, video glitches, reversed sound channels, etc.) can be corrected on-line and distributed for free. You still have the same choice of a one-time viewing (rental) or a locally archived copy. There are untapped possibilities here.

More dreaming. Most studios care about making a buck and little else. Fixing stuff costs money, they won't do it no matter what the distribution medium.


Originally Posted by DiscGuy
I see four issues on this thread:[list=1][*]Equating a future VOD system with today’s PPV systems which leads to retaining the PPV shortcomings while staying blind to the advantages of an improved VOD distribution system.

I'm sorry, but they simply aren't going to give us what we would need to make VOD replace DVD. They've proved their goals directly and indirectly over and over. Those include preventing people from sharing with friends (not even bringing your copy to watch at a friend's house), and charging per showing like a theater (which even gets to charge each individual per showing). Every legal download system is a closed system that does not allow for copying. Look at the hell over getting DVRs plugged into a PC. Sure, we can get around all the DRM/CP so far, but that doesn't mean it's a good system. And that's illegal, whether they are coming after us or not....I don't want my future usage based on almost every single usage being illegal.

This is the big wrench in the VOD possibility. Assuming that advances in bandwidth and encoding technology will happen (like MPEG4), the bandwidth issues will become moot. And I'll just ignore the very real issue of collection/ownership that you like to dismiss. But the studios greed will not allow for a usable download system. They don't want us to archive, they don't even like us to use Tivo for watching at 11 instead of 9pm.


Originally Posted by DiscGuy
[*]Slavish devotion to the DVD format. Resistance to change.

You seem to be predicating your entire disbelief of the other side of this discussion on the attitude that influenced your decision to use that first word, slavish.


Originally Posted by nightmaster
I've said it before and will say it again. Get the analog sets off the shelves, PERIOD. If they CAN'T buy the old technology then they have no choice but to buy the new one when their old bubble screen sets go kaput. When vinyl was replaced with CD, nobody gave us a choice.....they yanked them off the marketplace.
....
For new technologies to thrive they need to be given a fair shake, which is what is being discussed about VOD.

I'm not sure you are aware of the bank accounts of most citizens. And you can still buy new vinyl. But this will happen soon enough. By summer 2009 at the latest, most likely. But, back on topic, the current VOD system doesn't deserve much of a fair shake, not if it is supposed to replace the DVD system.


I might add that some of us refuse to download music that has been reduced in quality. CD is poor enough, I can't even buy those anymore. MP3 does not touch these ears. I hope like hell that video doesn't go the way of audio. That would make HDTVs useless, esp big ones.


I know one thing. If you guys are correct, there's going to be some crying at my house. And then whole bunches of CP cracking. Or maybe I'll just rewatch my LDs of Star Wars over and over....

nightmaster 12-13-05 04:14 AM


Originally Posted by Spiky

I'm not sure you are aware of the bank accounts of most citizens. And you can still buy new vinyl. But this will happen soon enough. By summer 2009 at the latest, most likely.

Certainly I'm aware of most bank accounts, by no means am I a wealthy man.
When CD replaced vinyl the industry didn't care what our bank accounts looked like. They wanted CD to thrive and they did what was necessary for it to happen virtually overnight. Yanking analog 4:3 TVs off the market would serve a similar purpose, but there's simply been way too much politics involved.

awmurray 01-20-06 10:28 AM

DIVX was a stupid mistake
 
I just wanted to add this article to this thread to archive a little more information on exactly what DIVX was and why it failed. I think it shows why a PPV scheme/VOD/always connected scenario won't work (i.e. won't be adopted).

According to the article, DIVX was a stupid mistake that cost Circuit City $114,000,000 in loses.

From DIVX Bites The Dust!:


DIVX Bites The Dust!
NOTE - THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE DISCUSSES THE CONTROVERSY OVER THE DIVX DVD FORMAT ORGINALLY CONCEIVED OF IN 1997 BY CIRCUIT CITY AND DOES NOT REFER TO THE CURRENT DIVX VIDEO CODEC NOW IN USE FOR INTERNET VIDEO APPLICATIONS.

Dateline 06/21/99

This story began in 1997 when Circuit City, along with a group of greedy Entertainment Lawyers, came up with a Pay-Per-View scheme for viewing movies on your DVD player. Called DIVX (Digital Video Express), the target audience for this format was the consumer that was more into renting movies rather than purchasing them. The intention of Circuit City and their cohorts was to undermine the Open DVD format that was taking a strong hold in the consumer marketplace and eventually supplant it with a system that could bring continuing revenues to Circuit City and their Associates every time one would sit down to watch a DVD movie. They Failed!

The official DIVX product rollout began on Friday, September 25, 1998. Pros and Cons of the new format were being posted on the internet. The units were referred to as DIVX enhanced DVD players. The players were offered for sale by Circuit City, Good Guys, and a few other retailers and sold for an average $50 to $100 more than a DVD player, they were DVD players that could play DIVX discs as well. This disc format allowed the consumer to make an intitial movie purchase for as low as $4.49, which allowed one to watch the movie as many times as they wanted within a 48 viewing period. In order to watch the film again after that time, the viewer had to reactivate the viewing period with the DIVX computer. In other words, the player was tied in to the phone line and the consumer had to punch in his credit card number to a main-frame computer in Virginia in order to view his movie.

To placate those that wanted to be able to view their movie at any time without having to go through the phone line process, the mainframe could convert your DIVX disc to "Silver" status for a fee, which was about the same as the price of an Open DVD disc, if you add in the initial fee you paid for the DIVX disc at the store. In addition, DIVX discs could only be viewed on the player that it was activated on--you couldn't take the movie to a friend's house to watch it. Lastly, regular DVD players could not play a Divx movie. In essence, this format had the potential of not only taking your viewing freedom away, but the retail and entertainment industry could easily gain the capacity to know what DIVX movies you watched and when you watched them, would the Government then be far behind?

As a result of this potential threat to our home entertainment freedom, an ANTI-DIVX movement sprang up on the internet through such sites as The National Organization To Ban DIVX and The DVD Resource Page to lobby consumers not to emb
race the new video format.

Whether due to public pressure, or lack of industry and retail support, Circuit City announced the demise of DIVX on June 16, 1999, while claiming (no actual sales numbers to back it up) that the consumer was indeed warming up to the DIVX format.

Every year, new products are brought to Home Electronics market to win our hearts and our dollars. Some products enjoy consumer acceptance very readily, such as the CD, the Camcorder, the VCR, and the Digital Camera. Some products are introduced, fail and are then resurrected in another form and succeed, such as Quadraphonic's evolution into Dolby Surround Sound, and the resurgence of the Minidisc. Other products pave the way for the eventual success of a derivative, such was the fate of BETAMAX (which began the VCR revolution) and the 8-Track Tape (which brought low cost, prerecorded audio to the Automobile) gave way to Audio Cassette and CD player.

Lastly, other products have been destined to fail from the start. Ill-concieved and underestimating the true public need and desire, the RCA CED-video disc and now DIVX have been tossed into the Home Electronics graveyard.

Gambling in the Home Electronics industry is a necessity in order to bring products to market, and success can bring great financial reward (Philips made a fortune with royalties it got from the invention of the audio cassette). However, with Circuit City announcing an $114,000,000.00 loss related to the DIVX enterprise, some marketing decisions can be very, very, costly.

In addition, as big as the above financial loss is for Circuit City, the bigger loss is the financial investment the average consumer has made in a product of dubious usefulness; and what of the trust between the consumer and the home electronics manufacturing and retailing industry? While there is no absolute guarantee that any new product will be successful, does the consumer have to now think twice about his purchase of that "new fangled, does everything" electronics product? And what about any "extended warranties" purchasers of DIVX players may have gotten, will they do any good now?

A little greed is good, it makes our economy run, but blind greed without practical vision can result in stupid mistakes.

DIVX was a stupid mistake.

You can get the details on Circuit City's official announcement regarding the state of DIVX at the following links:

The Official Circuit City Press Release On The Cessation Of DIVX Operations
Circuit City Announces Special Pricing, Rebate, and Return Procedures for DIVX Customers
Circuit City DIVX Rebate Form

For more info on the demise of DIVX Check out the following links (NOTE--I am not sure how long some of these links will remain active):

DVD Resource Page: The Anti-DIVX Page
DVD and DIVX Comparison, David Weller
DVD vs DIVX, Wayne Bundrick
Gadget Guru, DIVX IS DEAD
National Organization To Ban Divx, DIVX Obituary
Dan Frost, San Francisco Chronicle
Greg Tarr, This Week In Consumer Electronics

Feel free to email me at [email protected]
with your questions and/or comments.

b.n. 01-20-06 01:21 PM


Originally Posted by Terrell
I don't see video-on-demand ever being more successful than actually being able to buy and own a copy of a film. It's too big of pain in the ass, and most consumers in my opinion aren't computer savy and don't want to spend time downloading shit on a computer or any other device.

Not to mention the aggravation when your hard drive fails or you upgrade your computer.

everycritic 01-22-06 12:49 AM

This has been a very interesting thread. Thanks to everybody for sharing their views---I've learned a lot.

I was sitting with my 74 year old mother last weekend, watching the Night Stalker (1974) DVD set I bought her and I shared with her that CDs and DVDs were possibly on their way out. She asked what was coming and I told her that everything---music and movies---would probably be stored in a hard drives and/or streamed online.

She gazed at the warm and colorful shelves that hold her lovingly collected movies, books and music (part of the decor of her home) and said, "My...what an UGLY future you're going to have."

My opinion is that DiscGuy's VOD future may well and truly come but I am not convinced that a complete change-over will happen in my lifetime. (I am 41.) People have been "collecting" entertainment ever since technology made it possible. A VOD model requires abandoning some very deep-seated psychological drives that won't go away simply because we have some shiny new machines. Remember that a computer scientist was quoted as saying---in 1979---that e-books would render the paper book completely obsolete by the 1980s!

In addition, the details of setting up VOD boggle the mind: Who controls what movies are available? I assume that to make this viable the customer would simply be charged one monthly fee but who would get the money? How would this money be filtered down to the lowly supporting actor or the third cameraman? How would we keep all the various "industry" heads from haggling? How about the legislation that would have to be passed about when our computers are private property and when they're not? It doesn't seem that we have adequately addressed these issues using our CURRENT system, think how complicated it will be with a new paradigm.

And how about the moral and ethical dimensions of this new model? What about the very poor of this country? Today, most of the poorest of our population can still afford to buy a cheap TV set (one-time fee) and watch free television broadcasting. How would they manage a pay-per-use world? What happens to the person who is unemployed for months? At least with physical formats, people can console themselves with a good movie!

Again, COULD all these obstacles be overcome and we wind up with VOD? Yes, but I think we're talking decades and I dont see why renting/owning can't co-exist nicely in the meantime.

Meanwhile, I am coming from an admittedly selfish point of view. I started collecting movies in 1981 because I lose myself in the worlds of my favorite films and want to return to those worlds as easily as I can with books. I have been forced into every new technology ever since, not because I think they are so darned wonderful but because I want my movies on a format that I can use when *I* am 74 years old!

I don't have the faith in rich monopolies that DiscGuy apparently does. I don't trust them to supply me with the exact movie I want when I want it and I DON'T trust any movie/music player that requires me to be "connected" while I enjoy my entertainment. If that "limits" me, so be it.

I've bought my collection two times already---in limited LD cases, three. I have supported the home entertainment industry to the tune of thousands of dollars and I have done my part to make rich people richer. But now I have to say no, I'm done. It isn't "slavish devotion" to an old format---it's a personal economics decision---I can't afford to re-buy my collection again. Mostly, I am scared that the emergence of a VOD model may make it impossible for me to buy a DVD player in 2039.

There. I’ve said it. Maybe I am not the only one who is just simply scared. Now I guess I have to review my options for the future. I am trying to decide which is better: ripping my collection onto hard drive or just stockpiling DVD players.

My mom's the one who's lucky. She has gotten to enjoy her LP collection her whole life through.......

everycritic 01-22-06 09:47 AM

Oh.....one other consideration before physical discs disappear: camcorder home movies.

It's one thing to convince people to give up true ownership of intellectual property they didn't create, but how about intellectual property they DID create? We are looking at a mighty tough sell on that one. Some of us own DVDs (burned from camcorder tapes) of people who have died. How many people are going to entrust computer hard drives (exclusively) with THOSE memories? And how many of us want them streamed out to some communal server?

There was a prediction (InStat? I think it was....) that there was going to a burgeoning market in the next couple of years for "DVD burning kits." These kits would allow people to create sophisticated labels, graphics, cover art and menus for home-produced DVDs. They said these would be extremely popular for churches and schools. Need a fund-raising item? Create a really professional looking DVD of the last school concert or church program and sell at the next bake sale.

And finally, the BBC has been reporting on the "amateur revolution" that is happening with new technology that can make any home movie quite sophisticated. More and more people going out and making movies instead of just watching them and I can't believe that any artist doesn't love to have a physical product to keep and to hold and be reminded of what they created.

It's hard to point Aunt Tillie to an on-screen icon and say "That's what I've been working on for the past four years."

awmurray 01-23-06 03:40 PM


Originally Posted by everycritic
Remember that a computer scientist was quoted as saying---in 1979---that e-books would render the paper book completely obsolete by the 1980s!

And maybe it did. But by rendering a particular thing obsolete does not imply that it will ever go away.

Hell, sex is technically obsolete at this point, but I don't see a large line forming to sign up for that anywhere.

everycritic 01-23-06 04:08 PM


Originally Posted by awmurray
And maybe it did. But by rendering a particular thing obsolete does not imply that it will ever go away.


I think you missed my point that that WAS my point!

Thought of you today, awmurray, when I read these comments from MARGINAL UTILITY: Information Whirlwind by Rob Horning

I would seem that many of the folks who are sharing music files are having a bit of an identity crisis. How have they been coping? They have been going back to buying!

"The prestige of sharing an extensive downloaded music library is wearing so thin that it's becoming almost as transparent as that ever-blowing cyber wind......

But though knowledge of the music is becoming less impressive, less likely to give you an air of distinction, owning the physical LPs is gaining in prestige....

The cheapening of information through Internet technology has made physical ownership more impressive in and of itself...As more music is given away, owning music becomes more impressive ...

Cheap information — free music and books and movies and everything else — only enhances the prestige of raw, unrefined brute ownership....."

The Bus 01-23-06 04:53 PM

The video on-demand is never going to arrive in the form of jack-booted thugs tossing your shelves filled with DVDs and LDs and VHS tapes. Audio on-demand has been incredibly succesful over the past seven years. What wer'e seeing with movies is that they are trying to create a viable business model first, then bringing it to market. The music industry was caught with its pants down because they didn't realize it would appear so quickly. In 1997, MP3s were somewhat of an afterthought. Maybe about as much discussed as Ogg Vorbis is today. Not widely known etc. Within three years, Napster, P2P, and sharing had mushroomed and outright exploded. Millions of people don't own a CD, but have legally (or illegally) gotten digital copies of albums. Did they complain that they now had less choices than when buying a CD and going to the store or ordering it online?

No, because it was much more convenient. And VOD will be incredibly convenient. As it stands today, I can within a minute, be watching any of a couple of hundred movies (because of Comcast). If I had Rhapsody, or Napster I can listen to untold multitudes of songs or albums. I don't mind paying for a "movie subscription" (built into my monthly fee), but what about music? What if XM suddenly charged $7 more per month, but not you can go on XM.com and stream whatever song you want that they've ever played. Or replay any broadcast? (Sort of like the XM+Napster thing they've got going on).

And while your 2000-title on-disc DVD library is nice, in some ways it can never compete with a 50,000 title library I have at the touch of a button.

The only thing that is holding me back is price. DVDs are roughly $10-15 on average.

Right now, you pay $4 - $7 to download a movie and see it for 1-2 days. That's convenient, but not very appealing and not a good value.

What if for $20 per month and $1 per movie you could see any movie ever made, at 1080p, and it would stream wirelessly via satellite to any location anywhere, as long as you carried a small, cigarette-pack shaped device? And that device plugged in to your TV, or your portable player, or you could get a mini-projector attachment that projects an 18" wide image onto anything. And the movie loaded in under a minute?

Not feasible in today's market. But why not in 5 or ten years?

The reality is that won't convince everyone to convert. The sad reality is that such a device at that price point may be impossible. The only wayto know what happens is to see what happens. I can't wait.

The Bus 01-23-06 04:55 PM


Originally Posted by everycritic
I think you missed my point that that WAS my point!

Thought of you today, awmurray, when I read these comments from MARGINAL UTILITY: Information Whirlwind by Rob Horning

I would seem that many of the folks who are sharing music files are having a bit of an identity crisis. How have they been coping? They have been going back to buying!

"The prestige of sharing an extensive downloaded music library is wearing so thin that it's becoming almost as transparent as that ever-blowing cyber wind......

But though knowledge of the music is becoming less impressive, less likely to give you an air of distinction, owning the physical LPs is gaining in prestige....

The cheapening of information through Internet technology has made physical ownership more impressive in and of itself...As more music is given away, owning music becomes more impressive ...

Cheap information — free music and books and movies and everything else — only enhances the prestige of raw, unrefined brute ownership....."

Amount of people who buy CDs > Amount of people who download music > Amount of people who buy new LPs

He's taking isolated cases and extrapolating to an unrealistic extreme. Aside from any DJ, who do you know that has converted ALL their online music to LPs/vinyl? I doubt a single person like that even exists. Even if they do, they are not going to be the norm no more than someone with 5,000 DVD is going to be the norm.

everycritic 01-23-06 06:01 PM


Originally Posted by The Bus
What if for $20 per month and $1 per movie you could see any movie ever made, at 1080p, and it would stream wirelessly via satellite to any location anywhere, as long as you carried a small, cigarette-pack shaped device?


"What if...?"

There's the rub.

They haven't been able to make "any movie ever made" available in any format in the history of home entertainment. Heck, they can't even get some popular TV shows out now because they are fighting copyright battles with the musicians who created the music.

My final points are (1) I doubt a complete catalogue of films would ever be possible because there are too many people in the film business with too many conficting agendas, and (2) Those who are so excited about VOD seem to be putting an awful lot of faith in what promoters and marketers claim will be available to them. How many times have we all signed up for a service of some sort after being told we'd get X,Y,Z benefits, only to have the benefits changed or revoked because the marketing groups advised a different strategy.

Thanks all. I'm done.

I have to go to auditions now. I direct stage plays.

Now THAT'S VOD!!

:)

grunter 01-23-06 06:16 PM


Originally Posted by nightmaster
I've said it before and will say it again. Get the analog sets off the shelves, PERIOD. If they CAN'T buy the old technology then they have no choice but to buy the new one when their old bubble screen sets go kaput. When vinyl was replaced with CD, nobody gave us a choice.....they yanked them off the marketplace. I have a pal who bought a new 27 inch set for his wife this week to put in their bedroom. He owns a 65 inch Mitsubishi, has HD via DirecTV and a pretty decent HT setup, yet he bought her an analog set. Why? Cost, as well as the fact that she doesn't care if it's an HD set or not. For new technologies to thrive they need to be given a fair shake, which is what is being discussed about VOD.

Quite frankly, the "not-giving-consumers-a-choice" issue is already here once again for music fans. Try buying a single disc CD player that isn't a hand-held cheapie. They don't exist. Week-in and week-out you see reports in Rolling Stone about how poorly CD sales are going and what fantastic business downloaded music is doing. Why is that, you think? Could it be because the only hardware we have the option to buy currently plays almost exclusively MP3's? If the major hardware manufacturers supported even one popular piece of electronics that - today - played CD's exclusively, those stories about the CD's eventual demise might slow altogether.


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