I will worry about it when they create an interactive format when I can actually become a part of the movie myself, because other then that how much can the next format be. How many different extras could they create for something like Lord of the Rings Extended Editions. So until they build an affordable Holodeck for the home I am not going to worry about it that much.

I would be VERY supprised if 5% of the population even knows that a Blu-Ray HD-DVD player exists in 2007. I'd be even more supprised if there are more than 100 titles available by 2008 or that 1% of the population will even have a player.

Accepting formats is VERY hard to do for the general public. Just look at DVDs for your proof. They were announced as a format back in November of 1995, almost 10 years ago and they have just hit mainstream status in the last year. Then they finally came out in 1997. So it has taken several years to get to this point.

Now look at what happened in the Music industry and what continues to happen. CDs came around in the early 80s. They are THE format and as far as I'm concerned I do not see this format dieing anytime soon. Especially with all of the competing formats(yeah that made sense guys). Really though, talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

I think I was worried about HD-DVD for about an hour. After thinking it through like I have posted I soon realized that was something NOT to worry about.

I tend to agree. Not everyone will be willing to throw away cash on a new format that doesn't offer that much of an improvement to the naked eye. Yes, maybe we "the DVD community" can tell the difference, but do you think the average person who makes $20,000 a yr will really see enough difference to care? I don't think so. Most people I talk to still don't own SACDs or DVD audio discs...heck most of them have never even heard of them! Just like regular audio CDs will continue to master the audio market, so will regular DVDs master the video market...and as long as the FCC mandates backwards compatability, forcing manufacturers to make their TV sets compatible with the regular NTSC standards in order to play the regular DVD discs, then HD DVDs will never outsell regular DVDs. Now if the FCC forces ALL TV manufacturers to completely stop producing regular NTSC and PAL TVs and monitors in favor of all HDTVs, then eventually when all our TV sets breakdown and no one can replace the parts, then we will have to cave in and buy the new stuff...til then, DVD wins hands down.

CP

I'm willing to bet the Asians and Europeans will be jumping all over HD-DVD or Blueray... they always were open to the latest and greatest toys.

Personally, however, I'm going to wait until the new format catches on. I can't be throwing down all kinds of green just because something is new; so, I'll be waiting until the hardware and software gets reasonably priced.

DVD is just too hot of an item right now to be put away in a mere two more years. I predict DVD will have a great run just like VHS. Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be more of a niche product like LD.

That's just how I think it will play out.

The thought doesn't bother me at all. Either the technology will be so great that I will gladly snap up my favorites I already own on DVD (Terminator, LotR, Fear and Loathing, ect.) or it won't, leaving me content with the stuff I already own.

I won't be updating most of my current collection, and I won't be an early adopter who pays 200+ bucks too much for an (likely) unreliable HD-player with few features...I'm sitting the next wave out for at LEAST a year after it's North American launch.

Doesn't worry me at all. In the unlikely event it does take off, it just means lots of cheap used DVDs for me, at least for a while. At some point if I do adopt the new format, I

Since DVD doesn't degrade or break down over time like a VHS cassette, I think it's a perfectly fine format.

It doesn't pay to worry; no one knows what the future will bring. Ultimately, with better compression algorithms and cheaper storage, you probably won't even purchase a physical product beyond the next 15 or 20 years - it will be something like a million title library of video on demand accessible over the internet to your super hdtv wall monitor thingee.

My 250+ CD collection now resides entirely on my iPod (and my hard drive) and I never play CDs anymore, in my car or at home. If we could get the same kind of technology working for video, now that would be something. I love the idea of being able to punch up any movie I own (far too many) juke box style. Yeah, I know I can get DVD players that store hundreds of discs, but even that seems antiquated.

It's important to remember the HDTV (at least the broadcast part) is sattelite technology, and right now cable rules the roost. Blue ray? Bring it on. Like DVD, it will succeed or fail based on the consumer and his/her value perception.

Hmmm, world hunger, war, a growing deficit, my daughter approaching college age.... HD-DVDS.

I think I have enough to worry about right now.

I guess my non-jackass answer is "no."

I agree with all of the posts that state that HD DVD will be slow to catch on because of the small percentage of current HDTV owners. Now add to this the possibility of even those small numbers not being able to play HD DVDs because of the need for a DVI connection due to pirating fears from the studios. If the studios demand DVI connections for HD DVD players, how many current owners of HDTVs without DVI will be willing to upgrade their TVs again and also buy a new player. So you then have an even smaller percentage of people that will buy into the new format then just those that will need to upgrade from SD TVs to HDTVs.

I decided to upgrade from an SD analog TV to an HDTV just for DVDs even though I knew it would be a long while before getting an HD signal from cable or sat and OTA is not available to me. But I'm willing to bet I'm in the minority in that kind of purchase as most DVD player owners are content with an SDTV. Now they'll need to convince these people that they not only need a new HDTV but a new HD DVD player.

yes.

(hey, someone had to agree with you...im just being nice cuz it really doenst bother me at all)

DVD is hot right now, that is true, but the studios really are kinda coming to the end of what they can release on DVDs. Basically most of everything is already out there, so it is just a matter of time before the DVD market dries up (unless people really are in to buying third releases of discs, or "Ultimate, Super-Mega Extreme Edition!!!" releases). The studios will want the next big thing just to keep sales going. I think that if they are smart (and I have my doubts), they will price HD-DVDs at roughly the same price as regular DVDs to encourage people to buy them (much in the same way DVDs were priced at about the same as VHS when they were released). If they try to sell HD-DVDs at the same price that Laserdiscs used to go for, the studios will end up shooting themselves in the foot and they really will make it only a niche market.

The real benefit of the quality that comes with High Definition is that, unlike NTSC, when you blow it up real huge onto a 20 or 30 foot screen, it still looks great. Once people begin refitting their houses with projection HD systems so they really can feel like they're at the movies, then people will want HD-DVDs because the regular DVDs will look like crap at that size. But that is still a couple years away, and the studios for now will be content to squeeze as much blood from the turnip that is DVD sales. My suspicion is that the studios are not thinking of HD-DVDs as a niche market item though, and will be wanting it to completely supplant DVDs in a couple years when DVD sales begin to dwindle as a result of there not being anything left to put on DVD.

I'm not worry about it. Kinda like I wasn't worried about it when buying a computer. If I did, I would never had bought one cause something newer and better was around the corner. It will take sometime for the next format to gather momentum. I feel very comfortable buying current DVD disks.

the only problem I have with dvds is the dreaded layer change.

Hd-DVD will do away with layer changes. I will adopt it for that very reason. Some movies I love have ridiculous layer changes.
I am in rental mode these days and I do look forward to watching a film sans the layer change.

You know, whether it does, or doesn't catch on, to me it doesn't matter.

I wasn't an early adopter of DVD.. I didn't get into it until 99. That's earlier than most, but it was then that the format was just really starting to pick up steam. The picture on DVDs is immaculate as it is... so there are very, very few films I would feel compelled to upgrade to a newer format. Star Wars, LOTR and a few of my other faves, perhaps, but nothing more than maybe 20 or so of my favorites. If backwards compatibility is an option, I'll probably just wait until I see if the new format is actually going to work at a price point I can agree with, and then I'll make the switch and pick up new movies in HD, while still enjoying my already pristine DVDs.

The only reason why DVD's are priced comparably to VHS (actually cheaper) is because DVD's had a different marketing model (sales direct to consumer), instead of the VHS model of sales to video rental stores (at 3-4 times the cost of today's new DVD release), followed by a drop in price to current DVD new release price when the video rental stores sold their excess stock. It appears that this model worked better than the studios expected.

HD-DVD/Blue Ray will probably be sold at a premium, just as CD was sold at a premium over LPs and cassettes. But I predict you'll see the barebones edition on DVD and HD-DVD/Blue Ray will have the SE edition so the studios can "justify" the price premium to Joe Six-Pack.

However, unless a studio created a HD master for their current DVDs, they're not likely to remaster them in a HD DVD format unless it's a very popular title, so most of your current DVD collection will probably only be obsolete if you want to replace it with one that doesn't have a layer change.

I just don't see the average movie buyer (read: J6P) trading up their DVD collections just yet for something that looks better. Why I called it a niche market and likened it to LD is because I think the only people that will really buy them will be movie buffs, collectors, and people like that. I don't see people like my parents going out and replacing their player, their television, and their movie collections in the next ten years.

While we are the ones who truly appreciate DVD, we're in no means the primary DVD market. J6P is. The masses have latched on to DVD and I just don't see them changing over to a new format any time soon...especially one that will take a complete renovation of hardware.

many of my dvds contain versions and prints of films that are just fine. more than fine, actually. only selected titles will I replace with the next format. be worried about delamination(dvd rot) instead...then maybe your stress will be validated.

A couple years away?

Projection HD systems will NEVER be mainstream. There something only hard core movie buffs, and videophiles will ever adopt.

For one, they're expensive. Secondly, they require a pretty large dedicated room in a home to put in.

Well, you can do that right now!


www.kaleidescape.com


This is what I am looking forward to. Putting all my DVDs bit-for-bit into one hard drive and network it throughout my house.
Sure its $30,000 right now but it will drop in a few years (provided that some sort of copy protection be established.)
Make my own databases of films and best would be some sort of voice command system like.
"List all comedy films" or "Give me Matrix last chapter"
or "Show all things Tom Cruise related (extras and features)" etc.

I am not really worried about HD-DVD, only very few of my films will be upgraded.

You can copy any DVD today to DVD-R or DVD+R and remove the layer change, so if that's the only reason to upgrade, my little info has just saved you thousands of $$$

CP

It doesn't even arouse my concern or worry modules in the slightest!

'Nuff said!

I have no intention to be an early adopter. I might get one by 2010, who am I kidding about two years in I will get it.

But I mean really, do you think the public is going to go for a more expensive set up like this. How many people do you know - outside of this forum - that really care about anything other than the fact they do not have to rewind it a DVD.

I can not think of one friend my age - 24 - that has an HDTV. We are the group that would have to drive a mainstream conversion IMHO - younger people will not have the money and the studios will be after our demographic. If we can not afford the TV to watch the movie why pay more for the better disc.

I mean, my wife and I will be the first in our group of friends with HiDef - Aiming for Christmas with a 60 inch Pioneer Elite - but my friends don't even understand why I paid so much for speakers and a home theater reciever when their all in one cost 220 bucks. They cannot fathom why I have a $1500 - retail not what I paid - reciever. I point to the THX symbol and they look at me blankly.

I have no fear of this new medium - IMHO it will be the next laser disc - better, but only for audiophiles. I mean it will rock, but joe blow could give a rats ass.

HDTV...when done properly...looks fabulous...much better than even the best DVD's.

However, the current state of broadcast 1080i and 720p is "not ready for prime time". Just go over to avs.com and read the HDTV posts and you'll see what I mean. This year's Grammy's were a horror show for many with HDTV sets...in fact...it has become clear that current HD broadcast compression standards are NOT up to presenting certain types of material (e.g. strobing lights) without significant video degradation.

HDTV is the future...but current 480p DVD's will meet the needs of MOST folks for years to come.