Dammit

Sorry if this has been mentioned already.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/031128/dvd_format_2.html

I can't wait!

MrPeanut

I think I'll wait and see what Sony/Matsushita have to say on the topic.

NaturalMystic79

For what? All our current equipment and discs will become obsolete.

Dammit

Speak for yourself. I've been gearing up for this for a while. All I'll need is the player and some disks. I've been putting off building up a huge collection and just using that cash to improve my home theater for a long time. Netflix has been providing my movie fix in the mean time.

Besides, it won't make current DVD's obsolete entirely. It's not like they'll suddenly stop working and the new players will reportedly be backward compatible. I'll re-purchase a handful of titles I already have but for the most part, what's in my modest collection right now most likely won't end up on my upgrade list. All the Pixar stuff, LOTR and a few others are going to be must haves.

It's still more than a year away and some time after that before they're affordable. By then I should be pretty much done buying equipment. The DVD Forum agreeing on a standard is a big step though. They've been arguing over it for a long time.

Corky Roxbury

dammit, WOW finally other member on this board, that sees it like me, where everyone is buying thousands of dvd's is not the smartest idea, considering the quality(while some of you, think they are great, they are NOWHERE near HD quality), i bought close to 500 dvd's but have been weeding out most of the dvd's I will no longer watch or watch once a year considering HDDVD will be here in about 3 years. and in the mean time, I will have a couple of nice HDTV's(I currently have 4), and 7.2 surround sound system, and then when hddvd players come out I can jump right in, because the next format after that will be at least 20 years later, consdering I believe dvd's will be viable for next 10-20 years, and HDDVD will be on a mucher smaller scale.

ctyankee

I'd hold off popping the champagne if I were you.

Based on the link, it's unclear what "standard" has been approved let alone who (when it's all said and done) will honor the standard.

After that, years before market penetration and reasonable prices ... if ever. How many formats never make it?

Time will tell but I wouldn't hold your breath.

Dammit

A small commentary at the digital bits.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwocentsa80.html#forum

Dammit

Another article.

http://www.eetimes.com/sys/news/OEG20031126S0034

Sounds like a format war is still brewing but the steering committee is leaning towards the format that was just approved and taking steps balance out future voting so the powerful companies don't have an undue amount of influence. It's (the NEC tech) big ace in the hole is backward compatibility and media very similar to what we're already using (meaning production plants could be more easily adapted to produce HD-DVD's and presumably that would help keep costs down). Sony/Matsushita's format would require new production facilities and, judging by looking at them, would end up costing consumers more. If you haven't seen one yet, the disk is enclosed in a plastic case pretty much just like a large version of Sony's mini disk audio format that never took off.

The article claims 15-20 gigs of data per side. I remember reading something a while back about dual layered disks still being possible which would almost double the total storage without having to use flippers. I would think an HD film would fit into 20 gigs of space just fine anyway but 30+ gigs on one side sounds good to me.

B.S.Preston,ESQ

Well DVDs look great. As for my huge collection, I will replace maybe 15% when HD-DVD comes out and just start buying new releases on that format. I mean, for some movies I have like Back to School baby Boom, Death Machine, even newr flicks like Tomb Raider, K-19, etc., the "regular" DVD will suffice. It will be things like SPR, Signs, stuff I really love that I would replace.

Dammit

Same here. My collection isn't that impressive to begin with though so replacing my favs won't be too painful.

A side benefit is that these players will most likely have upscaling capability similar to some new players coming out now like the Samsung HD931 that upsamples standard DVD's to a high def resolution. It's cheating but it does make a noticable difference. Assuming you have an HDTV already and would be upgrading from a player with analog (component) outputs.

The key to HD-DVD being a success, and I really hope the big companies realize this, is to make the players and media affordable so people will replace their players and start buying new releases in the HD format just as you state. The difference isn't going to be so huge that people are going to rush to replace their entire collections. It will absolutely be possible to phase out standard def players and media though, if done properly. You won't even need a HDTV to use them (but obviously you will to appreciate them).

It will be a slow process but I'm looking forward to it. Ever since I saw Remember the Titans broadcast in HD on ABC I've been salivating over the thought of HD-DVD. It was an order of magnitude over even the very best looking DVD's currently available and I think HD-DVD will probably have a higher bit rate than a OTA broadcast.

B.S.Preston,ESQ

I wonder if it will be like DVD was in its infancy. Some studios not releasing product, saying the format will die, most people will not want to upgrade, etc.

Dammit

I'd think that's very possible. At least until the market decides which format will survive. My money is on NEC's blue laser simply for the fact that it's not such a drastic change as far as mass production is concerned. That's a major advantage.

I think what's even more likely in the beginning is some studios not wanting to release in high def due to piracy concerns. A HD-DVD would make a great master for mass duplication. We'll have to see what kind of copy protection it comes with. Hopefully whatever it is will take long enough to crack that all the studios will be invested in the format by the time it happens (since it obviously will be cracked at some point).

Brak55

This will not replace DVD's. It will be the high-end alternative that will take something like 10 to 15% of the market.

Rockybalboa

I am gonna have to go ahead and disagree with you, a good progressive scan dvd player like the Panasonic DVDXP50 really makes these current dvd's look great, I have compared some to the hd counterparts on HD HBO, and I do not see a "huge" difference. Also, the people who are buying these discs, maybe it is the smartest idea, who is to say what titles are going to be released in HD dvd, it took how many years for Indiana Jones to finally be released? The pricing on current dvd's is so low now, I cannot blame people for buying them. HD DVD is years off, if you always hold off on buying something because something better is comming down the road, you will never own anything.......

matome

EPKJ

I really doubt that HD-DVD will take off. I agree that it is not that big a leap. I have seen HD-TV, and am unimpressed. I think most consumers will have the same reaction. DVD was a vastly superior format to VHS. Even casual viewers were blown away by the difference. They will not be impressed by HD-DVD and will not be willing to convert or just trash collections, at least not without very low prices and backward compatibility.

Dammit

Not all HDTV is created equal. I've seen some that was blah and some that was OMFG! The difference is especially striking on fixed pixel displays. Also, don't rely on what you see in the stores. It's misleading. When I first got HDTV I wasn't incredibly impressed either until I saw a few things that were simply done better than the average broadcast. It's still new tech. They'll get it together.

Whether or not it takes off completely depends on how they handle it. If they market it simply as a high end alternative, it won't ever replace DVD and it will be destined to be a niche market. I don't think that's their plans however. Everything I've read indicates it's intended to be an eventual replacement for DVD.

The smart way is to gradually phase out standard def just like they're going to phase out standard def television. Even though they're going to price gouge like hell in the beginning (as with all new products), there's really no reason why it should cost more than what we're paying now after it's been out a while. Manufacturing costs of blue laser disks should be nearly identical after the cost of the retro fit to their equipment is recouped. If backward compatibility is indeed included, the phase out should be much smoother than say, the phase out of VHS.

It will be interesting to see how it goes down one way or another.

hoyalawya

I disagree with the comment by EPKJ (not sure whether he is joking). I have HDTV at home now and I avoid watching standard TV as much as possible. I check first every evening on what is on HBO HD. Once everyone is used to watching HDTV, I highly doubt that any film-based DVD will provide satisfaction. I agree that some DVD like LOTR:TTT EE is very good, however those DVD will look even more spectacular on HD format. Are you guys sure that the upgrade bug will not bite you especially if prices are comparable to the current DVD? Of course, this is just my opinion.

Gyno Rhino

It won't take off like DVD did.

Look at the advantages that DVD posed over VHS.

THAT is why DVD took off like it did.

HD-DVD can't offer anything CLOSE to what DVD did vantage wise.

Dammit

HD-DVD can take off like DVD did if they force your hand. There are some indications that they'll do exactly that within a few years. Here's a handful of things I've been reading about what's going on followed by an educated guess on how it will play out.

Some studios want it because they think the copy protection will be u************ble (edit: why is that word censored?!). Even if the protection is cracked, just the size will make them more cumbersome to download.

Even more studios want it because they think a lot of people will buy the same movies again (and looking at how many people here upgrade simply to an SE or a superbit, it's actually a logical assumption).

Electronics manufacturers want it because penetration of standard players is reaching a critical mass and fear the market will stagnate if they don't come out with something new. Whether or not that's true is arguable but that's a growing sentiment in the electronics industry.

More and more consumers are going to want it as they upgrade to HDTV's.

I've read nothing about any intention of letting the two formats compete indefinitely. HD-DVD is being geared up to be a progression of the format, not a competing format. Once HD-DVD players can be produced at mass market prices, finding a standard definition player is likely going to be difficult to do. Who in their right mind would buy one at that point? As the new players replace old ones, HD-DVD sales will obviously rise and when they reach a certain point, standard def sales and releases will decline. Once that plateu is reached, it will be a snowball effect just like it was when DVD's overtook VHS.

Don't underestimate the buying public's desire to have the latest and greatest new thing. As soon as prices allow for it, people will buy it. How many people do you know that DON'T WANT an HDTV? Probably not very many. The only thing keeping people from owning them is price (which will be drastically lower by the time HD-DVD starts to come down in price). Remember, DVD really took off when the hardware prices came down which resulted in mass market penetration. Now everybody can afford a player. Even game systems can play DVD's. Game systems of the not too distant future are very likely candidates to use the HD-DVD format due to increased storage and (percieved) enhanced copy protection. That will get HD-DVD players into a LOT of homes all on it's own.

Now, what is stopping the progression of DVD to HD-DVD again? The only thing that will stop it is if the studios / manfucturers etc completely screw it up. It won't be overnight but DVD didn't take over VHS overnight either. How many years has DVD been out? How long ago were all the announcements about people not carrying VHS anymore? Even with all it's technological advances, it was price + hardware market penetration that caused it's success.

Eric F

Watch some D-Theater tapes on a good HDTV setup and you'll think otherwise.

There's no doubt in my mind that HD-DVD or some other HD media format will succeed, it's just a matter of time. When enough people have HDTVs, they will want to watch movies with the same quality they get on TV.

Gyno Rhino

I agree. When enough people have HDTVs.

But I don't think that that is going to be as soon as many are projecting.

Corky Roxbury

Exactly DVD have been the second best format a/v wise for the past 2 years, with D-Theater on a good Hdtv, I watch on either a runco proj. or my 50" panny lcd , and it is jaw dropping, peole who say they are unimpreseed with HD, need to get their eyes checked or need to higher there expectations, because 480p, is not where its at

ArchibaldTuttle

I won't be able to afford a big enough hdtv to notice any difference for a long time so, hopefully by that time, the new standard what ever it is, will be fully adopted, till then I will be waiting for prices to go down

vivarey

HD-DVD won't come with a bang, but with a whimper. At first, the studios will package the HD version with the regular release (à la Terminator 2: Extreme Edition). Then they'll start creating separate HD/non-HD versions (à la "Widescreen" and "Fullscreen" releases) and put them side-by-side on the DVD racks. Eventually HD will take over, and the current DVD format we know will be phased out. This whole process could easily take 3 years or more after HD-DVD is available to consumers.

Whether or not we notice a different or not, HD-DVD WILL be the standard in the not-so-distant future. Much like the FCC is forcing consumer electronic companies and TV networks to convert to all-HD signals, soon we'll have no other choice than to buy HD-DVDs. It's inevitable.

For more discussions and information about the new HD-DVD standard, see my post here:

http://www.dvdtalk.com/forum/showthr...hreadid=330988