DebraGray

THis is a sad storie guys and gals
and I for one am not going to replace my 502 DVD's !!!


www.thedigitalbits.com

You know... consumer electronics companies just don't learn from their successes and failures. They look at the success of DVD, for example, and think... wow, if we created NEW format that was as successful as this, and WE controlled most of the patents, just think how much money we'd make!

There's a great editorial in this week's Video Business magazine by editor-in-chief Scott Hettrick that's well worth a read (May 5th issue - it's available online but you have to register to view it). It's a cautionary take on consumer electronics manufacturers wanting DVD to max out soon, so that they can get HD-DVD out faster. On the surface, that would seem like a good idea for those of you who are just dying to get HD-DVD in your hands now. But there's a BIG potential downside. One of the reasons these companies want HD-DVD here soon, is because they were unprepared for the appearance of ultra-cheap DVD players manufactured in Asia, which have taken a lot of the profit out of their hardware sales. What they're trying to do now, is make it so it won't be possible to make such cheap HD-DVD players, meaning (by logical extension) that right off the bat they'll be more expensive to consumers. There's also talk that these companies will choose an HD-DVD option that is NOT backwards compatible with current DVD. The feeling apparently is that if HD-DVD players can play existing discs, there isn't the incentive for consumers to upgrade their movie libraries to the new format the way they have with DVD.

We're gonna call this plan right now for what it is... ridiculous. Absolutely the stupidest idea we've ever heard. If the consumer electronics industry does this, HD-DVD is DOA. Period. These "forward" thinking companies will gleefully carve out a niche for HD-DVD no bigger than laserdisc, and with about the same growth curve. HD-DVD will arrive even more stillborn than DVD-Audio has (we believe DVD-A was a seriously blown format launch - a good topic for another day). And in the same way that SACD has become more attractive to audiophiles (while DVD-Audio flounders with delays and without killer app software), Sony's Blu-Ray will start looking like a pretty damn good alternative to HD-DVD for resolution-heads.

The industry needs to proceed with extreme caution... NOT greedy abandon... while moving toward HD-DVD. One of the reasons that the high-resolution audio market hasn't taken off nearly as fast as some might have liked (format confusion aside), is that most consumers don't perceive anything wrong with current CD technology. It's a 5-inch disc, it's convenient and it's digital. What could be wrong with it? Eventually, high-resolution audio will be the norm, but that day is at least a decade away, if not more. People like CDs!

By the same token, consumers who have just upgraded their libraries to DVD will certainly not see anything wrong with what they have. The move from VHS to DVD was easy. There were any number of obvious improvements to be enjoyed by doing so (durability, smaller size, significantly better picture and sound, interactive extras, more purchase/collectible value, compatible with music CDs and more). The SOLE improvement that HD-DVD will offer over existing DVD - the sole reason to upgrade to it - is high-definition video. And we can tell you, from having talked to a LOT of consumers, that the video quality difference between VHS and DVD was obvious to them. But the difference between a well-mastered anamorphic widescreen DVD and HD is not.

I personally have shown several friends and guests scenes from high-definition movies on D-VHS, and then showed them the same scenes from the same movies on DVD. And while I can see a clear difference, most people have to have it pointed out to them to really notice it. The general feeling is DVD is great... and high-definition is just a little bit more great. In other words, DVD is good enough for most people. That's going to be especially true as more and more people gradually buy bigger (and widescreen) digital-ready TVs and upgrade to multi-channel surround sound - they'll continue to reap additional quality benefits from existing DVD for years to come. We're telling you right now, the consumer demand for HD-DVD just isn't going to be there in the same degree that it was for DVD. If properly launched, HD-DVD will eventually become the standard. But, best case, the growth curve will be much slower than it was for DVD. Much slower.

DVD succeeded because it was a no-brainer. But HD-DVD will NEVER be a no-brainer. It will never be the obvious choice. So you damn well better at least make it an easy one.

Making HD-DVD backwards compatible with existing DVD (and even CD) will at least give the format a fighting chance to be accepted. Early adopters and adventurous DVD consumers would be able to buy the new players - still retaining the value of their existing movie and music collections on disc - and enjoy select new HD-DVD titles as they're released.

Our understanding, from talking with other industry insiders, is that the DVD Forum expects to announce an HD-DVD format spec in 2004, with the first hardware and software possible in 2005. So if HD-DVD is going to succeed in the second half of this decade, it needs every single scrap of advantage going for it possible. Backwards-compatibility IS its best advantage. Why would consumer electronics companies want to take that away?

Time for an off-the-wall horse analogy. Let's say you're a trainer. You've got a super-fast thoroughbred in your stable, that's won every race in the last six years by a long-shot, blowing every other horse away by a mile. But you've been saving your very best horse for last... a real winner that's as every bit as good as the other horse, but even a little bit faster. You can't wait for it to win so you can reap the benefits. But why shoot the first horse, and then hobble the new one in the knees before you open the barn door? Read my lips, folks. Makes... no... sense.

Bet you didn't think we had an off-the-wall horse analogy in us, did you? It was either that or compare HD-DVD to a '48 Tucker and we didn't think most people'd get it. ;-)

Anyway, thanks to Scott Hettrick for a good editorial on an important issue. You can bet we haven't heard (or spoken) the last on this. Stay tuned...

cupcake jesus

Great commentary. I think HD-DVD will have a market, not a mass one like DVD, but one for videophiles who crave the highest resolutions for their high-end home theaters. I think regular DVD is a godsend for movie lovers, and I'll stick with it until

A)Like VHS, it becomes obsolete by something that blows it away
B)Get a high-end home theater; something I don't have the means to buy right now.

Here's to hoping that they make it backwards-compatable. It's like PS2--who doesn't like popping in Metal Gear: Solid, or Intelligent Qube every once in awhile? I'm sure, also, as is the case with VHS to DVD, that every DVD title won't appear on HD-DVD.

moocher

I must disagree on their take about backward compatibility. Have they never heard of an A/V switch? Most TV sets, receivers, etc. will seemlessly switch from one source to another. People who bought DVD players can't play their VHS tapes on them. What is the big deal?? Backward compatibility is a non-issue.

Price of players and disks is what will hold the market down. It destroyed the LD market and held DVD down until the $60 Chinese players hit the market. Then people said "why not" for that price. After that, DVD took off and disk prices fell sharply in response.

danol

Debra I agree with what you said but what about the thousands of titles that have not made it to DVD because of the companies making a regular editon, then a special edition, and then the ultimate edition.


In my sucessful thread which about 150 members responded to with 10 movies which they would like to become DVD, thats 1500 titles!


Debra that's not even touching base with all the Vhs titles *I* have that I would rebuy if made into red laser anamorphic DVD.


Debra will the movie makers continue to make DVD of movise I and other mebers still don't have. Some I only watch every so often, while some I watch at least 100 times a year. I am 56 and disabled and have the time to view, if only they would make them to buy. TIA


P.S. Backward capability could be done if the openings would have a sleeve to insert a red laser in, and put it into the DVD red and Blue laser player. Hardly anyone listens to CD in their DVD 300 +1 changers. I would cut out the capability of using the player for CD listening, and instead put a blue laser in.


I have seen so many red laser pointers in side an ordinary pen size, so having 2 lasers in one unit with a blu-ray sleeve it should be enirely possible for those who want to spend the money.

gutwrencher

thats right. Blood Freak or Scum of the Earth will never make to HDDVD. neither will hundreds of other titles. thats fine by me as I have no desire to rebuy over 1,000 titles either. I can think of about 50 films I'd love to see that way....but not nearly as many as I currently own. as long as I have my fav 1,500 films, regardless of the format, I'm very satisfied. some films just cant be improved much more than they already are. I just want the disc itself to last years and years on my shelf....and I may just buy 2 or 3 dvd players in a few years and stash'em in the closet.

DebraGray

danol
I will keep buying DVD's im one of the people that responded to your thred about what 10 I would want to come to DVD
I love DVD !!!

but I dont want to replace all the DVD's I own all 502 and buy them again on HD-DVD

they say they will not make the new HD-DVD players be able to play the old stuff so as long as they keep making DVD regular ill keep buying them

I want the best quality but I dont want another box on my overcoruded TV stand
and not for a lot of money and not if it wont play my old stuff

its true I owned a laser player but DVD is fine we are not gainign a whole lot with the HD format and high prices no compatability will keep away

LONG LIVE DVD!!!
or make HD-DVD play my DVD's!!!

JaxComet

So you play your old DVDs on a regular player. No big deal.......

JimRochester

.....assuming that regular players remain available as long as our DVDs will last.

Built in obsolescence can be very dangerous. How many of us have systems that will benefit from HD-DVD? How many of us that will benefit will repurchase hundreds of DVD's? Not me. My DVD looks great, just how clean does my "two Weeks Notice" need to look anyway?

Panda Phil

I figure if companies can produce DVD/VHS combo players, the DVD/HDDVD couldn't be that hard.

Backwards compatability though is really about the only way I'd ever switch to a HD-DVD unit. Like most of you guys I've got too much invested in my collection.
Oh, and making HDTV's under $500 would help too.

JaxComet

By the time HD-DVD comes out I would think a lot of people will....


Yikes! You can't polish a turd!

moocher

Right. It would be extremely easy and cheap. The point is that the hardware producers don't want to because they feel it will discourage upgrading (at least according to the article).

Why must you have backward compatability to upgrade? As others have said, you will still have your old player and new players won't go away anytime soon. I don't think it is necessarily true that no backward compatability means no more players. HDTV's have been around for years yet there is still plenty of market for standard TV's and probably will for many more years. As long as there is a market, they will still be produced.

HD-DVD will not be near the success DVD is. As the article rightly points out a slightly better picture is not reason enough for most people to make the investment. Once again it will take a $60 Chinese player to do it and even then, the upgrade is just not significant enough on a moderate sized TV for most people to bother. Niche item all the way - 21st century version of the LD.

Alan Smithee

I was resentful of DVD when it was coming out because laserdisc was good enough and there were fears DVD would have most titles in pan and scan and have compression artifacts. I decided to try it out anyway by getting a Pioneer combo player- since I needed a better LD player anyway (for Dolby/DTS output) I figured I'd be getting that along with a free DVD player.

Drexl

Even if they do decide not to make standalone HD-DVD players backwards-compatible, I would bet that optical drives in computers will still play them.

milo bloom

Backwards compatiblity is severly underrated. It was a main buying point for our PS2, and our GBA SPs. It eliminates clutter, and can often be of a better build than the original machine. I think an HD DVD format without it will not go very far at all. It will be a niche market if anything.

bboisvert

I'm sure that they have heard of an A/V switch... but, then again, they run a DVD web site.

I would argue that to reach a large number of consumers (as standard DVD has) you have to appeal to the Wal-Mart crowd (Joe Six-Pack, whatever you want to call it). And these people haven't heard of an A/V switch. Nor do they want to learn about or deal with one.

The editorial is arguing that if the industry attempts to completely dispose of an insanely-popular format a few years after introduction, the new format will crash and burn. Average people will look at the HD-DVD and think "too expensive, can't play my current collection, doesn't look much better" and totally skip it.

TheDigitalBits have a very good point, methinks.

DavidH

I agree with Digital Bits. A lot of good points were made. HD-DVD is not going to be like current DVD anytime soon AT ALL. When I say "like" I'm talking about the popularity, price, demand, etc.

Ginwen

I think the advantage of backwards compatibility (and reasonably low cost) is that when somebody goes to the store to buy a new DVD player (maybe their old one died), and they see an HD-DVD player that only costs a bit more, and will still play their old DVDs in addition to a new format, they are much more likely to purchase it then if they go to the store, and have to either make a choice or buy both. More units sold = more software which then leads to more units sold, etc.

SCHMEGGA

As stated several times above; without backward compatability it will be a niche market for the well healed/HT enthusiest. I think this would do the format disservice. It should be a great format but will have to be overpriced to make any money. It is not like it would take much effort in order to BWC the machines.

shanester

I wouldn`t want to rebuy my dvd`s in HD not worth the investment.This is just a marketing tool to get consumers to spend more $$$

Johnny Zhivago

Agreed... 90% of the folks who are now into DVD will not be forking out for a new format. Hell, you'll have to practically break their damn_arm to get em' to buy a HDTV set... For these folks, what they have is good enough and they "don't need no better". I was reminded of this fact last weekend as I was browsing the DVD players at Best Buy... The blue guy was pitching a prog scan player to a woman who was just now buying her first DVD player... Her display device (that's a tele)? She said it was one of those 25" console TVs... You know, the ones from 20+ years ago that sit in the wood cabinets... Now tell me, how is this woman - and MANY like her - even going to begin to grasp what a HD-DVD is?

I tend to agree with codefree here... I have no problem buying a HD-DVD player for the discs that I would replace - and this is going to be a fairly small percentage... Perhaps 25%, if that. As the others have pointed out, Evil Dead, etc, can only look so good and in it's current DVD form, I'm going to say that's certainly good enough. Personally, I have the gear to take advantage of HD-DVD so bring it on... And I have a request, 2001: A Space Odyssey needs to be a launch title.

All that said though, The Bits have made some solid points in relation to the average DVD consumer... Assuming that standard DVD players stay in production - and that's a very safe bet. What they haven't considered though is exactly what we have been discussing... HD-DVD will be an enthusiast only product for many years after it's launch. Willy Wal-Mart will have no friggin' clue what to do with it and will have very little interest.

And for those who say that HDTVs will be the norm in homes in the States... Not until the prices are comparable to 4X3 sets. No way, no how. The average consumer will NOT spend more money than they have to for a television. HDTV broadcasts or not. We here (the home theater enthusiasts) are a growing group but we are still a small minority. Even among the DVDTalk community, take a poll and see how many respond that they own a 16X9 television... The number will be smaller than those who do not. Now, apply that to the average American consumer group...

DonnachaOne

I'd give HD-DVD less than a year of crashing sales before the companies agree to backwards compatitbility...

JimRochester

Hi all! Newcomer to the HDDVD market here. I was wondering if anyone knew if Back To The Future, Jurassic Park, or Star Wars was going to be released anytime soon

Sathlin

I don't understand why we all think we have to 'rebuy' our whole collection again once hd-dvd comes out.
I'll be happy with both my dvd collection and my new hd-dvd collection.

only hd-dvds i might rebuy, would be for my most favorite films, lotr, godfather , star wars, indy, etc.. but that is it.

otherwise i'll be happy with both, and i am now with dvd, and some vhs.

and backward compatibility isn't that big a deal.. we all have both a vhs and a dvd player now right?
well we'll just have a dvd and a hd-dvd player in teh future.. not THAT big a deal.

everyone has a pvr now anwyays.. who needs vhs right?

Josh-da-man

Good money says that the studios and hardware manufacturers will screw up any HD-DVD format to the point that it's stillborn.

Mark my words.

They will:

1. Rush it out before the market is ready.
2. Try to destroy the market for DVDs before it's fully matured.
3. It won't be backward compatible with DVD.
4. It will have some sort of DIVX-like crap attached to it. I've no doubt that the studios love the idea of pay-per-view discs, as well as the draconian security measures associated with DIVX. Mark my words...
5. The a/v quality will not be as good as it should and could be.

Jericho

This article basically says what I've been saying. And I think backward compatibility is HUGE. Otherwise, why would people buy into the new format? Like DVD, any new format is expensive at first. And most people won't rush out to get an HD-DVD player. They can get a plenty good enough picture/movie now at no additional cost.

D-VHS is supposed to be better than DVD, but people here aren't exactly rushing out to get it. Without backwards compatibility, there's little incentive to get a new player unless one is and audio/videophile. There's no doubt the format can be better, but noticably better is another thing. I'm a big film fan, and even with a pretty good set-up, things like edge echancements and artifacts don't really bother me.

Plus considering DVD is in year 7 and there are still many movies (i.e. Indiana Jones, Treasures of the Sierra Madre, Aladdin) not out on DVD and mnay more (i.e. Goodfellas) that haven't gotten a proper release, I wouldn't rush to buy a new, undeveloped format.

Backwards compatibility at least allows people a reason to buy into the format.