From The Magic Box:

Nintendo was just complaining about how bad it was that Microsoft was breaking the console life-cycle to launch a sucessor, yet they throw out a new portable every few years. I just don't understand that.

But the Game Boys have always been backwards-compatible. Microsoft was talking about not making the Xbox 2 play Xbox games, IIRC.

I find it a bit doubtful the GBA 2 would be backward-compatible with the DS, seeing how it's a two-screen system and all. Not that this is news anyway, Nintendo's said since day one the DS isn't "really" a Game Boy successor, despite the backwards compatibility. Frankly I think the DS is just a really elaborate FUD tactic designed to keep people's minds off the PSP.

I disagree. The only comparison between the DS and the PSP is the fact they are portable. After that, they are two very different systems.

2006 doesn't sound too far off considering the GBA was released in what, 2002?

GBA came out in 2001.. 12 years after the original Gameboy.

Backwards compatable with the GBA, not the DS.

Even better. 5-year life cycle.

But the GBC came out in November 1998, 7 years after the original GB and only 3 years before the GBA.

True, but it took a few years before they made any games that were GBC only; most were hybrid and therefore did not take advantage of the extra power (only the color) and still worked on the original Gameboy.

Which is a market Nintendo used to own pretty much outright and where they do most of their business these days.

The very fact that it's a portable -- never mind what kind of portable it is -- should be enough to worry Nintendo. And they are worried; just how worried, I don't know -- talk to me after Sony announces the price. But this "the PSP isn't really competing with Nintendo" logic doesn't really do it for me. It's certainly more of a direct threat than the Ngage or the Zodiac are/were, if nothing else for the simple fact that the PSP has an actual industry player behind it.

Well, technically the DS is a "side" system, and not a successor to the GBA. It looks like the GBA2 will be coming out 5 years or more after the GBA, so they're not breaking the cycle technically.

The GBC was as well, and there were relatively few good games made must for it. Most were hybrid games as Pixy said that would play on either.

I think the reason they likely aren't super worried is that the GBA is successful in large part because of the stangle hold it has on the kid market. I doubt the PSP will affect that. It will cost more (probably $300, $200 at cheapest) and won't have the Pokemon, Mario etc. games that draw in kids a parents.

The PSP will likely draw away some older gamers who use portable gaming, and also pull in a few more who either want a spiffy video and mp3 player that also plays games, as well as the types that just have to have the latest gadgets.

But I don't see many older gamers on subways and what not with GBA's anyway, so Nintendo should really only be mildly concerned.

I vaguely remember the n-gage, but whats a zodiac? I dont remember hearing about that.

The problem is that those older gamers are largely where the industry is heading. It's no big secret the median age of video gamers is going up; it's also no big secret that a big part of the reason Sony has been so successful is because they were perhaps the first to really break the stigma of video games as being a thing for kids and teenaged boys and appeal to a mainstream, adult audience. If the PS2 only appealed to kids and teenagers it wouldn't have sold anywhere near 60 million units to date. And even though the GBA has a bigger user base than any other currently supported system on the market (including the PS2), it's still performed well under Nintendo's original expectations and I think a large part of that is down to the loss of the older gadget-lover market to things like Palms, PocketPCs, and mobile phones (although the mobile phone boom is probably hurting Nintendo more in Japan than in the U.S. or Europe); this is a big shift from Nintendo's glory days of the original Game Boy, when it was either the Game Boy or nothing so far as portable gaming was concerned. Nintendo can still make a pretty good living by appealing to the kids' market but they can't count on it to keep them in the dominant position anymore.

Some of the DS' features, like wireless Internet connectivity and the entire touchscreen thing, seem to be an attempt at capturing the older "gadget" market, so I think Nintendo is pretty cognizant of how the PSP can hurt them and are taking some steps to head it off. Nintendo isn't going anywhere -- they'd probably abandon the home console market long before they'd ever bail out of the portable arena -- but unless the PSP is just completely absurdly priced (like, say, $350-500), it's going to be a rougher slog ahead for Nintendo than they ever faced from the Game Gear, Lynx, Ngage, et al.

Just think if you could lose your PS/2 like you can a GBA. I know of several of my kids friends that are on their second or third GBA SPs already. They would probably pick up another million or 2 units...

Really.... link?

I just don't see the PSP as sweeping the market the same way Sony did with the playstation. The playsation was direct competition for Nintendo, similar price, cheaper games, and the consoles matched up pretty evenly for graphics, but the more "mature" perception definitely helped Sony.

But the portable market is very different. I don't think it is necessarily a kids vs. adult thing. Its more of a portable system price point thing. If they come in really competively priced, that is a whole other story, but I can't see it hitting below $300. And since its much bigger than most mp3 players, where smaller is better, and uses proprietary movies, I am not so sure it will have really strong appeal in the gadget market. But we will have to wait and see.

http://www.gamecubicle.com/news-nint...ision_2002.htm

That was for the fiscal year ending March 2003. There's another article on the same site mentioning that their software sales for the year 2002 came in 12% below expectations. That's only one year but for a system that's only been around for three years it's a pretty big deal. I have no clue what the projected sales were for the last fiscal year; I imagine they met them, largely due to the introduction of the SP (which pretty much everyone at the time pegged as a response to the sluggish sales of the original GBA). I do know how many units they sold but I can't find any projections.

But as Hinkle pointed out, it's a fairly concrete fact that adults aren't really buying into the GBA in huge numbers, certainly not the same way they're buying into the PS2. Are those adults completely uninterested in portable gaming? Maybe, but I think it could simply be down to the fact that portable gaming for adults is something that no major player has really leapt upon yet. Certainly it would seem adults are equally or more keen to spring for a multi-function device like a PocketPC than a wholly dedicated gaming console; as a multi-function device the PSP is a bit iffy (as you note, the movie functionality uses a proprietary format) but at least Sony is going down that road and Nintendo seems to be dipping their toe in the water with the DS.

So really, I think both companies agree with me (to different extents, anyway) on this issue, but I'm not making any guesses as to which one will win without more information on pricing and software support (and it's this, and not the multimedia all-in-one thing, that could possibly the one area where Nintendo is most vulnerable; third parties support the GBA because it's the only game in town right now, but based on what I've heard from developers they don't really like supporting the GBA because it's notoriously difficult to make a profit from the software).

the big N will first come out with the GBA 2 in 2006 or 2007 version 1 without a back light, that a few months down the road, they will release another version with a backlight.

For consoles, yes. For portable gaming, not some much yet IMO. I don't think many older gamers are that intersted in portable gaming. I see kids with GBA's all the time, and rarely an adult (even on planes and the subway) and few people I know with cell phones and PDA's with games on them ever play them. But that's just anecdotal evidence.

I guess the success of the PSP will answer this question for us, as it's not going to fare well in the kids market against the cheaper GBA and DS, as parents will go with Nintendo (which their GBA toting kids will continue to ask for by name) and the cheaper price.

Don't have a link, but I will back him up. There have been more GBAs shipped and sold that even PS2's.

I've read it numerous places, and read various quotes to that effect. For example, the guy in the Nintendo press conference said something to the effect of "Maybe you should ask if the PS2 can catch the GBA" when asked if the PSP could catch it.

The DS seems a little cooler than I initially thought, the touch screen if it is durable and responsive could really bring a whole new element to gaming, IMO.
If the big N can make the DS somewhat affordable and strong enough for kids to be swiping and pawing at one of its screens, we could all be in for a surprise.
The fact that it is backward compatible with GBA carts really does make it part GAMEBOY no matter what you name it.

My guess is that it will Launch at $149.99. Still too much for me, but with some of the games (especially a new 2D mario) I'll probably pick one up after price drop, even though I'm not into to portable gaming much.

I dunno. Anecdotally speaking, of course, I remember it was more common to see adults with an original Game Boy than it has been to see them with GBAs. This seemed to be reflected in the marketing; it wasn't uncommon for Nintendo to advertise new Game Boy games in adult-oriented publications like Time and Newsweek on a semi-regular basis, but I can't remember Nintendo ever doing that with the GBA except for a) when the hardware was originally launched and b) when the SP was launched (and the design of the SP itself seems to be more "gadgety" than the original GBA, which looked more like people expected a portable video game system to look like).

The DS price is a bit interesting since it has two LCDs and LCDs are one of the (if not the) most expensive single component of a portable gaming system; the fact that LCD prices have actually been going up in recent months (for a reason which escapes me at the moment) doesn't bode well, particularly if Nintendo plans to follow their usual position when it comes to selling hardware at a loss (i.e., don't do it). $150 sounds about right and it's obviously going to come in cheaper than the PSP, but still.....

I wasn't referring to the number of GBA's sold vs. PS2's but the statement that the GBA hadn't sold to expectations. I just don't know how the top selling system, can be considered to be performing under expectations.

i hope gba 2 has the x y button on it; it's kind of hard to play SF w/o the x y buttoms.

big n should use the apple i book colors scheme and incorporate into their gba 2; and i hope gba 2 have a 180 or 360 degree turns like the sony clie and instead of the fold down screen like the gba; it should slide screen like motorola cell phones. now that would be cool and creative.