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Old 10-09-04, 02:37 PM   #1
Matthew Chmiel
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Box Office Estimates for the Weekend of 10/8-10/10

Friday's Estimates from Show Biz Data:

1. SHARK TALE
8.1 / 64.1

2. FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
7.0

3. LADDER 49
3.8 / 31.7

4. TAXI
3.7 / 4.3

5. FORGOTTEN, THE
2.1 / 43.4

6. RAISE YOUR VOICE
1.4

7. SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW
.5 / 32.1

8. SHAUN OF THE DEAD
.5 / 8.2

9. NAPOLEON DYNAMITE
.4 / 38.9

10. MOTORCYCLE DIARIES, THE
.4 / 2.0
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Old 10-09-04, 02:41 PM   #2
Matthew Chmiel
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So from last week's thread much to Scott Shelton's dismay:

- I predicted Shark Tale would have a 40-50% drop, I was right.

- I predicted Friday Night Lights would do well similar to previous sports movies of the past few years (in particular: Remember the Titans, Miracle, and Varsity Blues), and yet again I was right.

- I predicted Taxi would make some money, but it's box office would resemble FOX's The Transporter a few years ago. I was somewhat right, as The Transporter made more money on it's first Friday.

- I predicted Raise Your Voice would be D.O.A., and it seems I was correct. It'll probably top out around $10 million.

And from earlier threads, I predicted much to Scott Shelton's dismay:

- Napoleon Dynamite would work it's way into being a cult favorite.

How do you like them apples, motherfucker?

And I am happy that Shaun of the Dead is making some money and that The Motorcycle Diaries has made it's way into the top ten.

Now next week, give me a while to gather my thoughts.
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Old 10-09-04, 02:58 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel
- I predicted Shark Tale would have a 40-50% drop, I was right.
It's a lousy movie, no question, but isn't the Friday-to-Friday drop only about 33%?
Quote:
- I predicted Taxi would make some money, but it's box office would resemble FOX's The Transporter a few years ago. I was somewhat right, as The Transporter made more money on it's first Friday.
You know, I don't like to gloat when films do poorly but the constant bombardment of trailers for this film made me want to flip the proverbial trampoline.
Quote:
- I predicted Raise Your Voice would be D.O.A., and it seems I was correct. It'll probably top out around $10 million.
You know, why can't young actresses simply just act anymore? Questionable types like Duff and Lohan feel they must show off all their singing and dancing and triple-threatty goodness, as if to make the collective universe gawk and gasp and proclaim "Oh look how talented she is!!". Feh. People are really getting sick of it. I know I am. Still... nice hogans.
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Old 10-09-04, 03:05 PM   #4
Matthew Chmiel
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Quote:
It's a lousy movie, no question, but isn't the Friday-to-Friday drop only about 33%?
I have a feeling the drop might be bigger tomorrow than the usual CGI animated Friday-to-Saturday boost. All of the pre-teens and teenagers will probably be out seeing Taxi and Friday Night Lights today (similar as what I saw last night while going to the theaters to see The Motorcycle Diaries) than seeing Shark Tale. The only audience the film (Shark Tale) has now are the kiddies and parents. I suspect that come next weekend, the drops will be more and more signifcant as more films are bombarded towards the movie going public.

Quote:
You know, I don't like to gloat when films do poorly but the constant bombardment of trailers for this film made me want to flip the proverbial trampoline.
The first Taxi (the French film) wasn't that bad. The constant bombardment of trailers didn't help much as there was never much that interest from the public to see the film in the first place. Oh, all of the bad reviews didn't help either. Or the fact that The Best Week Ever ripped it's asshole a new one last night.

Quote:
You know, why can't young actresses simply just act anymore?
Because who would pay to see a film where people act?
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Old 10-09-04, 03:22 PM   #5
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I'm sure if you throw enough shit on the wall it will stick. Doesn't take a great thinker to realize how this weekend was going to go. Taxi's #'s are terrible. Looks like a certain actor should have stayed with SNL if this is the kind of numbers he is getting in his first post SNL film.
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Old 10-09-04, 03:25 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel
How do you like them apples, motherfucker?
Nothing but class from Chmiel. What am I to do... Hmmmm.
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Old 10-09-04, 03:37 PM   #7
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Quote:
Nothing but class from Chmiel. What am I to do... Hmmmm.
An ironic statment coming from the man who has insulted people who have liked Napoleon Dynamite.

Quote:
Looks like a certain actor should have stayed with SNL if this is the kind of numbers he is getting in his first post SNL film.
He coould go into drama? Convince Cameron Crowe for an Almost Famous 2?
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Old 10-09-04, 03:44 PM   #8
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For those who want to know what Matty is squealing about... My post in last week's box office thread....


Quote:
TAXI has huge buzz. Fox even moved it up a couple of days to grease the wheels. I see it doing well.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS, on the other hand, has nobody talking about it. Nobody.

SHALL WE DANCE, “long delayed?” It went from July to October, which was a spectacular move on Miramax’s part. See the film with an audience and you’ll see a big hit in the making. Personally, I thought it stunk. But the audience I caught the film with almost rioted they were having so much fun.

RAISE YOUR VOICE, “dead on arrival?” Don’t underestimate the Duff factor. Even junk like CINDERELLA’S STORY pooped out 50 mil.
While I find it hard to talk about this ON FRIDAY ESTIMATES mind you, I will say:

I was wrong about the critical appeal of TAXI. The crowds seem to like it, but I was duped by some early reviews I read. I honestly thought a loose action comedy would appeal.

I stand behind FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS. I've seen the film, and boy does it stink, IMO. But I still say nobody is talking about it. From what I hear, it's cleaning up in the southern markets, which is why it will be the highest grosser of the year to have no "buzz."

As for Duff. I don't recall saying it was going to be a smash, just not to underestimate it. It looks bombish now, but I'll wait until next week to seal that vote.

Boy, if you're that worked up about proving me wrong, that must mean I'm always right! I'll take this teenage rant as flattery, motherfucker.

Oh yeah... Cause that makes it OK.
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Old 10-09-04, 03:55 PM   #9
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As for Friday Night Lights, don't underestimate it. It's going to make most of it's money from the teenage crowd. When I went to the theater last night, everybody was purchasing tickets for the film (either for the last two showings of the evening or showings for tomorrow night). Then there was my girlfriend and I purchasing tickets for The Motorcycle Diaries (which was quasi-filled) and tonight's showing of Team America.

And anybody could've told you Raise Your Voice was going to be dead on arrival. And waiting until next week? It's entire female audience will be at Shall We Dance? meaning the drop is going to be SIGNIFICANT. I hope that Shall We Dance? will tank, but I fear otherwise, mostly for the fact there hasn't been a romantic comedy in a while.

Playing the online game Movie Boss (RIP) and HSX (back in it's prime), reading The Early Report at Filmjerk (great site), and along with checking the box office reports daily for the past seven years has taught me how the box office can sway and which films could and will be hits and/or duds.
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Last edited by Matthew Chmiel; 10-09-04 at 03:57 PM.
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Old 10-09-04, 03:56 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel
An ironic statment coming from the man who has insulted people who have liked Napoleon Dynamite.
When did this happen? I mean that honestly.

I hate the film, and openly disagree with you when you rave about it ceaselssly. But "insulted?" I don't think I've done that.

Feel free to pull up quotes and burn me, but as of this moment, I don't think I insulted anyone. I have no memory or search fuction results of me doing that.
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Old 10-09-04, 03:58 PM   #11
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Quote:
Feel free to pull up quotes and burn me, but as of this moment, I don't think I insulted anyone. I have no memory or search fuction results of me doing that.
Eh, I'm not going to continue this war with you. This is a thread on the box office estimates for the week, not us arguing with one another (yet again). If you want to continue this, we can do it somewhere else. I was teasing you in my first post, but you took it way too serious. It's a freaking online message board.
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Old 10-09-04, 04:06 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel
Eh, I'm not going to continue this war with you. This is a thread on the box office estimates for the week, not us arguing with one another (yet again). If you want to continue this, we can do it somewhere else. I was teasing you in my first post, but you took it way too serious. It's a freaking online message board.
Like take this into the street? The provoker turns peacemaker...

Seriously, heed your advice as well.
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Old 10-09-04, 04:08 PM   #13
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Like take this into the street? The provoker turns peacemaker...
If you want, we could. I'll bring my posse and my brass knuckles. We'll go about it Three O'Clock High style.
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Old 10-09-04, 04:34 PM   #14
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I'm surprised anyone thought Taxi would do well
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Old 10-09-04, 05:44 PM   #15
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Has anyone heard any buzz about Napoleon Dynamite?
























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Old 10-09-04, 07:04 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally posted by fumanstan
I'm surprised anyone thought Taxi would do well
No shit. Usually I'm the only one who has high hopes for Fox's stinkers and I wanted nothing to do with Taxi cause it was so bad.
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Old 10-09-04, 07:07 PM   #17
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The only problem I see with Friday Night Lights is that it's audiance is already going to be booked up this weekend. Highschool football on friday, College football on saturday, sunday being all day of games of pro teams, when does your target demo get a chance to go see the film?

other then that there is a market for it and as being #2 this weekend with what looks to be 18-20million take, it's pretty successful and looks to be a long. Taxi is a short right now and it doesn't look very successful with that crappy take in.
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Old 10-09-04, 10:45 PM   #18
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Old 10-10-04, 02:47 AM   #19
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Quote:
when does your target demo get a chance to go see the film?
At night, after the games?
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Old 10-10-04, 02:50 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel
At night, after the games?
Well not tonight as the last game is still going on
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Old 10-10-04, 03:05 AM   #21
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Well not tonight as the last game is still going on
Well after my personal experiences, high school games usually end around the time frame of 9:00pm and college games around the same time.
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Old 10-10-04, 03:06 AM   #22
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I was just pointing out when Hawaii has a home game it tends to drag on the Saturday schedule a bit
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Old 10-10-04, 03:13 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally posted by scott shelton
When did this happen? I mean that honestly.

Feel free to pull up quotes and burn me, but as of this moment, I don't think I insulted anyone. I have no memory or search fuction results of me doing that.
Quote:
Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel
Eh, I'm not going to continue this war with you. This is a thread on the box office estimates for the week, not us arguing with one another (yet again). board.
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Old 10-10-04, 03:22 AM   #24
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Quote:
I was just pointing out when Hawaii has a home game it tends to drag on the Saturday schedule a bit
See, I go to UNLV. And when UNLV has a home (or away) game, we tend to lose. So we cut our losses and end quickly.
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Old 10-10-04, 01:20 PM   #25
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1. "Shark Tale," $31.7 million.

2. "Friday Night Lights," $20.6 million.

3. "Ladder 49," $13.3 million.

4. "Taxi," $12.05 million.

5. "The Forgotten," $7.5 million.

6. "Raise Your Voice," $4.6 million.

7. "Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow," $2.3 million.

8. "Shaun of the Dead," $1.6 million.

9. "Resident Evil: Apocalypse," $1.25 million.

10. "Woman, Thou Art Loosed," $1.2 million.
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