Box Office Estimates for the Weekend of 10/8-10/10
Friday's Estimates from Show Biz Data:
1. SHARK TALE 8.1 / 64.1 2. FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS 7.0 3. LADDER 49 3.8 / 31.7 4. TAXI 3.7 / 4.3 5. FORGOTTEN, THE 2.1 / 43.4 6. RAISE YOUR VOICE 1.4 7. SKY CAPTAIN AND THE WORLD OF TOMORROW .5 / 32.1 8. SHAUN OF THE DEAD .5 / 8.2 9. NAPOLEON DYNAMITE .4 / 38.9 10. MOTORCYCLE DIARIES, THE .4 / 2.0 |
So from last week's thread much to Scott Shelton's dismay:
- I predicted Shark Tale would have a 40-50% drop, I was right. - I predicted Friday Night Lights would do well similar to previous sports movies of the past few years (in particular: Remember the Titans, Miracle, and Varsity Blues), and yet again I was right. - I predicted Taxi would make some money, but it's box office would resemble FOX's The Transporter a few years ago. I was somewhat right, as The Transporter made more money on it's first Friday. - I predicted Raise Your Voice would be D.O.A., and it seems I was correct. It'll probably top out around $10 million. And from earlier threads, I predicted much to Scott Shelton's dismay: - Napoleon Dynamite would work it's way into being a cult favorite. How do you like them apples, motherfucker? ;) And I am happy that Shaun of the Dead is making some money and that The Motorcycle Diaries has made it's way into the top ten. Now next week, give me a while to gather my thoughts. ;) |
Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel - I predicted Shark Tale would have a 40-50% drop, I was right. - I predicted Taxi would make some money, but it's box office would resemble FOX's The Transporter a few years ago. I was somewhat right, as The Transporter made more money on it's first Friday. - I predicted Raise Your Voice would be D.O.A., and it seems I was correct. It'll probably top out around $10 million. |
It's a lousy movie, no question, but isn't the Friday-to-Friday drop only about 33%? You know, I don't like to gloat when films do poorly but the constant bombardment of trailers for this film made me want to flip the proverbial trampoline. You know, why can't young actresses simply just act anymore? |
I'm sure if you throw enough shit on the wall it will stick. Doesn't take a great thinker to realize how this weekend was going to go. Taxi's #'s are terrible. Looks like a certain actor should have stayed with SNL if this is the kind of numbers he is getting in his first post SNL film.
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Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel How do you like them apples, motherfucker? ;) |
Nothing but class from Chmiel. What am I to do... Hmmmm. Looks like a certain actor should have stayed with SNL if this is the kind of numbers he is getting in his first post SNL film. |
For those who want to know what Matty is squealing about... My post in last week's box office thread....
TAXI has huge buzz. Fox even moved it up a couple of days to grease the wheels. I see it doing well. FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS, on the other hand, has nobody talking about it. Nobody. SHALL WE DANCE, “long delayed?” It went from July to October, which was a spectacular move on Miramax’s part. See the film with an audience and you’ll see a big hit in the making. Personally, I thought it stunk. But the audience I caught the film with almost rioted they were having so much fun. RAISE YOUR VOICE, “dead on arrival?” Don’t underestimate the Duff factor. Even junk like CINDERELLA’S STORY pooped out 50 mil. I was wrong about the critical appeal of TAXI. The crowds seem to like it, but I was duped by some early reviews I read. I honestly thought a loose action comedy would appeal. I stand behind FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS. I've seen the film, and boy does it stink, IMO. But I still say nobody is talking about it. From what I hear, it's cleaning up in the southern markets, which is why it will be the highest grosser of the year to have no "buzz." As for Duff. I don't recall saying it was going to be a smash, just not to underestimate it. It looks bombish now, but I'll wait until next week to seal that vote. Boy, if you're that worked up about proving me wrong, that must mean I'm always right! I'll take this teenage rant as flattery, motherfucker. Oh yeah... ;) Cause that makes it OK. |
As for Friday Night Lights, don't underestimate it. It's going to make most of it's money from the teenage crowd. When I went to the theater last night, everybody was purchasing tickets for the film (either for the last two showings of the evening or showings for tomorrow night). Then there was my girlfriend and I purchasing tickets for The Motorcycle Diaries (which was quasi-filled) and tonight's showing of Team America.
And anybody could've told you Raise Your Voice was going to be dead on arrival. And waiting until next week? It's entire female audience will be at Shall We Dance? meaning the drop is going to be SIGNIFICANT. I hope that Shall We Dance? will tank, but I fear otherwise, mostly for the fact there hasn't been a romantic comedy in a while. Playing the online game Movie Boss (RIP) and HSX (back in it's prime), reading The Early Report at Filmjerk (great site), and along with checking the box office reports daily for the past seven years has taught me how the box office can sway and which films could and will be hits and/or duds. |
Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel An ironic statment coming from the man who has insulted people who have liked Napoleon Dynamite. I hate the film, and openly disagree with you when you rave about it ceaselssly. But "insulted?" I don't think I've done that. Feel free to pull up quotes and burn me, but as of this moment, I don't think I insulted anyone. I have no memory or search fuction results of me doing that. |
Feel free to pull up quotes and burn me, but as of this moment, I don't think I insulted anyone. I have no memory or search fuction results of me doing that. |
Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel Eh, I'm not going to continue this war with you. This is a thread on the box office estimates for the week, not us arguing with one another (yet again). If you want to continue this, we can do it somewhere else. I was teasing you in my first post, but you took it way too serious. It's a freaking online message board. :) Seriously, heed your advice as well. |
Like take this into the street? The provoker turns peacemaker... |
I'm surprised anyone thought Taxi would do well :)
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Has anyone heard any buzz about Napoleon Dynamite?
;) |
Originally posted by fumanstan I'm surprised anyone thought Taxi would do well :) |
The only problem I see with Friday Night Lights is that it's audiance is already going to be booked up this weekend. Highschool football on friday, College football on saturday, sunday being all day of games of pro teams, when does your target demo get a chance to go see the film?
other then that there is a market for it and as being #2 this weekend with what looks to be 18-20million take, it's pretty successful and looks to be a long. Taxi is a short right now and it doesn't look very successful with that crappy take in. |
Originally posted by Matt Millheiser ;) |
when does your target demo get a chance to go see the film? |
Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel At night, after the games? ;) |
Well not tonight as the last game is still going on |
I was just pointing out when Hawaii has a home game it tends to drag on the Saturday schedule a bit :)
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Originally posted by scott shelton When did this happen? I mean that honestly. Feel free to pull up quotes and burn me, but as of this moment, I don't think I insulted anyone. I have no memory or search fuction results of me doing that. Originally posted by Matthew Chmiel Eh, I'm not going to continue this war with you. This is a thread on the box office estimates for the week, not us arguing with one another (yet again). board. :) |
I was just pointing out when Hawaii has a home game it tends to drag on the Saturday schedule a bit |
1. "Shark Tale," $31.7 million.
2. "Friday Night Lights," $20.6 million. 3. "Ladder 49," $13.3 million. 4. "Taxi," $12.05 million. 5. "The Forgotten," $7.5 million. 6. "Raise Your Voice," $4.6 million. 7. "Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow," $2.3 million. 8. "Shaun of the Dead," $1.6 million. 9. "Resident Evil: Apocalypse," $1.25 million. 10. "Woman, Thou Art Loosed," $1.2 million. |
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