Dems worried about losing control of Congress

[MACD23]

Democrats on Capitol Hill fear Obama fallout

By Andrew Ward in Washington

Published: September 11 2008 23:30 | Last updated: September 11 2008 23:30

Democratic jitters about the US presidential race have spread to Capitol Hill, where some members of Congress are worried that Barack Obama’s faltering campaign could hurt their chances of re-election.

Party leaders have been hoping to strengthen Democratic control of the House and Senate in November, but John McCain’s jump in the polls has stoked fears of a Republican resurgence.

A Democratic fundraiser for Congressional candidates said some planned to distance themselves from Mr Obama and not attack Mr McCain.

“If people are voting for McCain it could help Republicans all the way down the ticket, even in a year when the Democrats should be sweeping all before us,” said the fundraiser, a former Hillary Clinton supporter.

“There is a growing sense of doom among Democrats I have spoken to . . . People are going crazy, telling the campaign ‘you’ve got to do something’.”

Concern was greatest among first-term representatives who won seats in traditionally Republican districts in the landslide of 2006. “Several of them face a real fight to hold on to those seats,” the fundraiser said.

Tony Podesta, a senior Democratic lobbyist, said members of Congress were “a little nervous” after Mr McCain shook up the race with his choice of Sarah Palin as running mate and intensified attacks on Mr Obama.

“Republicans have been on the offensive for the past two weeks . . . You don’t win elections on the defensive.”

The campaign manager for a first-term Democratic congressman from a blue-collar district in the north-east rejected suggestions that Mr Obama had become a liability. He said his candidate would reach out to Republicans and avoid attacks on Mr McCain.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6c2f69ce-8031-11dd-99a9-000077b07658.html

and Gallup confirms an almost closed gap

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Battle-Congress-Suddenly-Looks-Competitive.aspx

[classicman2]

I long for a ticket headed by Hillary. ;)

[Tracer Bullet]

They shouldn't be.

[Venusian]

I think generic polls aren't that useful

[Venusian]

oh and I agree with Tracer, if the shift continues, they may not have as much gain as previously expected, but i doubt they'll lose control

[classicman2]

I believe generic polls may indicate a trend.

I wonder if the politicos are still holding to their prediction of the Senate make-up after the election?

[wendersfan]

I wonder if the politicos are still holding to their prediction of the Senate make-up after the election?The Senate elections are a special case this year. The Republicans hold a lot of seats that are losing incumbents or are otherwise trending Democratic, regardless of the national mood. Virginia is an example. I think this situation is more worrisome for the Democrats with regards to the House.

[classicman2]

another congressional generic poll


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_ballot/generic_congressional_ballot

[classicman2]

The Senate elections are a special case this year. The Republicans hold a lot of seats that are losing incumbents or are otherwise trending Democratic, regardless of the national mood. Virginia is an example. I think this situation is more worrisome for the Democrats with regards to the House.

The least senate gain for the Democrats I have seen is 6-7.

Do you believe the Democrats are going to gain that many?

[wendersfan]

The least senate gain for the Democrats I have seen is 6-7.

Do you believe the Democrats are going to gain that many?I think five or six, maybe a couple more.

[JasonF]

The least senate gain for the Democrats I have seen is 6-7.

Do you believe the Democrats are going to gain that many?

You're not looking hard enough. I routinely see five pick-ups identified: Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Colorado. And Alaska may not even be a certain pick-up now that there's an Alaskan Republican on the top of the ballot.

Earlier in the summer, there was some mention of Minnesota, Oregon, North Carolina, and the Mississippi special election being in play, but I think most people agree at this point that those are relative long shots.

So I would say 4-6 pick-ups for the Democrats, with a potential upside of 9 if everything breaks their way.

[MACD23]

You guys all do realize that the Dem controlled congress has a lower approval rating than Satan, I mean Bush, right?

[Thor Simpson]

Yes, but do any individual congressmen have such ratings? Because last I checked, we vote for individuals, not a (R) or (D) Congress.

[wendersfan]

You guys all do realize that the Dem controlled congress has a lower approval rating than Satan, I mean Bush, right?I can't think of a time when Congress has had a higher approval rating than the president. I'm sure it must have happened at some point, but I don't know when that might have been.

[Groucho]

You guys all do realize that the Dem controlled congress has a lower approval rating than Satan, I mean Bush, right?That doesn't matter. Even in times of "vote the bums out" the exception is always "my bum". You need to look at the local districts, not the national mood.

[cungar]

You guys all do realize that the Dem controlled congress has a lower approval rating than Satan, I mean Bush, right?


This is such a meaningless comparison. Congress doesn't have any supporters like Bush does. How many people go around saying they support congress? How many Congress bumper stickers do you see? It's popular to hate congress. I bet most of the people that hate congress couldn't name a single piece of legislation they passed in the last year.

[MACD23]

I can't think of a time when Congress has had a higher approval rating than the president. I'm sure it must have happened at some point, but I don't know when that might have been.

Even when the President has one of the lowest approval ratings in history?

[wendersfan]

Even when the President has one of the lowest approval ratings in history?Yeah, even then. I can think of two times when Congressional approval might have been high than the president's, 1974 (just before Nixon resigned) and 1994/95, just after the Republicans took control of the House. But even in late '94/early '95, Clinton's approval rating was higher than Bush's is now.

[X]

That doesn't matter. Even in times of "vote the bums out" the exception is always "my bum". You need to look at the local districts, not the national mood.I've been trying to vote out "my bum" most of my voting life. Even when I worked for my bum.

[starman9000]

Earlier in the summer, there was some mention of Minnesota, Oregon, North Carolina, and the Mississippi special election being in play, but I think most people agree at this point that those are relative long shots.


I'm pretty surprised at how well Franken is doing here in MN. I don't know a lot of people that particularly like Coleman, but I figured Franken's abrasiveness would keep him out of it. I think the Coleman campaigns negative ads may be hurting them more than helping them.

[Venusian]

I'm pretty sure I've always voted against my bum no matter which district I've lived in

eh...scratch that, last time i voted for my bum simply because of his party - i wanted a divided govt

[MACD23]

Yeah, even then. I can think of two times when Congressional approval might have been high than the president's, 1974 (just before Nixon resigned) and 1994/95, just after the Republicans took control of the House. But even in late '94/early '95, Clinton's approval rating was higher than Bush's is now.

There have been few presidents as unpopular as Bush, there have been few Congresses as unpopular as the current. The Dems won control in '06 on false and empty promises of sweeping change, and the ratings continued to plummet. I wouldn't assume the Dems control a damn thing, especially as Obama and the hype surrounding him fades and the Republicans energize the base to get out and vote for McCain Palin.

[Venusian]

don't assume if you dont want to, but look at the numbers. i'd be willing to bet money the dems will control congress next year. you willing to bet the other way?

[Mordred]

don't assume if you dont want to, but look at the numbers. i'd be willing to bet money the dems will control congress next year. you willing to bet the other way?Numbers and graphs are stupid. It's what I believe that must be true.

[MACD23]

No, I'd say its likely they do, but I also think, per the article, and the sudden trend towards McCain that they may not. Its no lock. How the Dems aren't up by 20 points in every poll right now (including presidential) considering the circumstances (Bush, economy, war, media, etc) would normally be mind boggling, but then one must remember, they are afterall the Democrats.

[classicman2]

You're not looking hard enough. I routinely see five pick-ups identified: Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Colorado. And Alaska may not even be a certain pick-up now that there's an Alaskan Republican on the top of the ballot.

Earlier in the summer, there was some mention of Minnesota, Oregon, North Carolina, and the Mississippi special election being in play, but I think most people agree at this point that those are relative long shots.

So I would say 4-6 pick-ups for the Democrats, with a potential upside of 9 if everything breaks their way.

Word of advice - don't bet the farm on it. ;)

[Groucho]

You do realize that one of the reasons that Congress is unpopular is because it has failed to stand up to Bush? So it's not like there's some "Republican revolution" going on.

[MACD23]

Numbers and graphs are stupid. It's what I believe that must be true.

You mean the numbers and graphs I provided from Gallup that show a tightening view among registered voters over who they support? The Republicans are ahead among likely voters.

[cungar]

There have been few presidents as unpopular as Bush, there have been few Congresses as unpopular as the current. The Dems won control in '06 on false and empty promises of sweeping change, and the ratings continued to plummet. I wouldn't assume the Dems control a damn thing, especially as Obama and the hype surrounding him fades and the Republicans energize the base to get out and vote for McCain Palin.

The hype surrounding him fades? Do you really believe Obama is still riding on hype? If there's anyone with the possibility of a fading hype in this campaign it's the person who (according to McCain) "Knows more about energy than probably anyone in this country".

[wendersfan]

Numbers and graphs are stupid.I will hunt you down and kill you.

[classicman2]

Do you believe Obama is considered to be less the candidate of change than he was a month ago?

[classicman2]

You do realize that one of the reasons that Congress is unpopular is because it has failed to stand up to Bush? So it's not like there's some "Republican revolution" going on.

I believe the Democratic controlled congress has stood up to Bush.

One thing near & dear to the heart of Bush & the Repubs is a renewal of the Bush tax cuts. They haven't, and will not, renew them.

[nemein]

I'd be <i>very</i> surprised if they lose control of congress. They might not pick up as many seats as they were originally hoping for, but it would be nothing short of miracle if they actually lost seats IMHO.

[JasonF]

Word of advice - don't bet the farm on it. ;)

Of Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Colorado, which ones will the Republicans win?

[Mordred]

You mean the numbers and graphs I provided from Gallup that show a tightening view among registered voters over who they support? The Republicans are ahead among likely voters.The Republicans will not regain control of congress. They might pick up some seats but anymore than that is wishful thinking.

As has been pointed out to you, nationwide opinion polls mean nothing. Latest polls show House 243-192 for the Dems and Senate 56-44 for the dems as well. Now lets see your polling numbers. Gallup polls don't count :p

More information here:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/House/house_races.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Sep08.html

[cungar]

I believe the Democratic controlled congress has stood up to Bush.

One thing near & dear to the heart of Bush & the Repubs is a renewal of the Bush tax cuts. They haven't, and will not, renew them.

And that got so much coverage from the press.

[classicman2]

Change Rule 22 in The United States Senate, and you have a whole different picture concerning the Democrats standing up to Bush.

[wm lopez]

If the Dems lose everything will some Hollywood celebs leave America?

[BKenn01]

I doubt the Democrats will lose seats in this cycle. I am just praying that they dont get a fillibuster proof margin. See the slide towards Socialism to me is the "Equal Pay Act" and the "Employee Free Choice Act" (neither are truthfully described by their name). It scares the H out of me that these 2 bills could ever become law of the land.

But if Obama wins, there is a good chance they lose congress in 2010.

[bhk]

The repubs just need to tell people that the it is the dems that are in power in congress and they are the ones preventing drilling for more oil. Nationalize that issue and it could be a good election for them.

[classicman2]

I'm certain the Democrats are aware that 70+ of the American people want more drilling.

However, unfortunately, they're wedded to the extreme environments who have a totally unrealstic view of our energy needs.

[Vandelay_Inds]

I'm certain the Democrats are aware that 70+ of the American people want more drilling.

However, unfortunately, they're wedded to the extreme environments who have a totally unrealstic view of our energy needs.

It is now considered an "extreme" position to preserve that which gives and sustains our life?

Besides, despite whatever you heard from your favorite news personality, "more drilling" will have but a marginal effect on energy prices. What we require is a paradigm shift.

[Vandelay_Inds]

Numbers and graphs are stupid. It's what I believe that must be true.

Numbers and graphs, when dealing with social phenomenae, don't exist in a vacuum. They are subject to the same selection and interpretation biases as any other opinion.

[classicman2]

It is now considered an "extreme" position to preserve that which gives and sustains our life?

Besides, despite whatever you heard from your favorite news personality, "more drilling" will have but a marginal effect on energy prices. What we require is a paradigm shift.

first sentence :lol:

Pickens favors a drill, drill, drill plan - the first priority of his comprehensive plan.

Price is only one factor. Supply is a more important fact. Increased domestic oil production would decrease our need to buy oil from some not so friendly countries - Venezuela comes to mind. You seem to believe Chavez is satan.

The second portion of his plan is convert gasoline using vehicles to natural gas using vehicles. You're such a protector (or at least you say your are) would be of a considerable benefit to that environment, wouldn't you say?

Pickens is for attacking our energy problem with all alternatives including wind, solar, nuclear, and other alternatives. Obviously you're not. You are wrong. If you folks have your way, you are going to live to rue the day. Of course by then, you will be tarred-and-feathered, and run out of town on a rail. :)

[OldDude]

If you folks have your way, you are going to live to rue the day. Of course by then, you will be tarred-and-feathered, and run out of town on a rail. :)


Well, only if we can afford to import the tar.

[classicman2]

I wonder if folks like Vandy_Inds knows what has happened to the price of ashphalt in the last year?

It wasn't that long ago when folks could afford to asphalt their long driveways. Now they have to use rock.

What about asphalt shingles? A lot of folks have asphalt shingled roof? I wonder ifVandy_Inds have. If it's asphalt, I hope it's fairly new and doesn't need replacement any time soon.

Metal roofing is becoming more & more competive in price with ashphalt shingled roofs.

[classicman2]

The fiscal year ends 9/30. Congress has not passed all of the appropriation bills. Therefore, congress must pass a continuing resolution to keep the government running. Roll Call says there are enough votes in the Congress to prevent the passage of a CR unless there's an overshore drilling provision in it.

[wabio]

You do realize that one of the reasons that Congress is unpopular is because it has failed to stand up to Bush? So it's not like there's some "Republican revolution" going on.


My thoughts exactly. I wish someone in Congress would actually grow a pair and tell Mr. Bush to bite me! Even if it's Pelosi.

[classicman2]

Your's & Groucho's thoughts are wrong. ;)

[SoSpacey]

I wonder if folks like Vandy_Inds knows what has happened to the price of ashphalt in the last year?

It wasn't that long ago when folks could afford to asphalt their long driveways. Now they have to use rock.

What about asphalt shingles? A lot of folks have asphalt shingled roof? I wonder ifVandy_Inds have. If it's asphalt, I hope it's fairly new and doesn't need replacement any time soon.

Metal roofing is becoming more & more competive in price with ashphalt shingled roofs.

Those were the last 2 things my house needed. My estimate on my driveway (110' x 10' + 200sf) jumped $4k.

My roof went from $9200 to $14000.

[olds403]

If congress want to improve their approval ratings Nancy Pelosi needs to get off her high horse and stop cramming her ideals down peoples throats. Let the damn congress VOTE on things instead of parking controversial items so that they cannot be voted on. What a bunch of crap, whatever happened to the idea that congressmen(and senators) were REPRESENTATIVES of the people? Pisses me off that they get voted into office and then do whatever the hell they want instead of what their constituents tell them to do. Harry Reid is pretty much the same.

[classicman2]

It looks as if we may be headed for a government shutdown.

The leaders of the Democrats in both houses apparently are not going to allow Republican energy alternatives to come to the floor.

If the Repubs hold to their statements that they're not going to allow any CRs to be passed unless they get a vote on their alternatives, then a government shutdown seems inevitable.

If it happens, I wonder who will get the blame? The Republican congress got the blame for the last one when really the blame should have gone to Bill Clinton. They passed the CRs. Clinton refused to sign them.