Gdrlv

Same here. The only time I ever turn on my Wii is when friends come over. It really needs to live up to its promise and has not done so for me at all. Zelda is amazing, Excite Truck is fun, but there's little else on it that's impressed me...and I've given many games a shot. I'm far more disappointed with the Wii than the PS3 right now...even if it's primarily a Blu-Ray player with the occasional game of VF3 or Motorstorm.

Basically, I play games on the 360, watch movies on the PS3, and use the Wii as a paperweight.

fujishig

The big advantage the PS2 had was marketshare, some of which had to do with their early entry into the last gen race, and some of which had to do with the success of the PS1. With that marketshare they were able to get a bunch of exclusives and a lot of games that were made for their system, then ported (often with delays) elsewhere. The success in Japan especially helped them to corner the market on Japanese niches, especially the Japanese RPG and the offbeat titles like Okami, Shadow of the Collosus, and Katamari Damacy. The 3rd party support alone was incredibly lopsided... few AAA games on the Gamecube were non-Nintendo, and while the Xbox did enjoy some 3rd party exclusives, it was nowhere near the amount the PS2 got.

The PS3 has a chance if only because there's so much opposition to Microsoft in Japan. Sure, people argue that Japan is no longer the greatest source for games, but I still think they are a huge factor. At least for me, and at the very least Pixy... The Wii will get a totally different kinds of games than the 360 and PS3, so I almost consider them a separate entity...

Michael Corvin

You've stated as much a couple of times. It is quite hypocritical to praise the PS3 for being able to play the PS2's library, yet dismiss the Wii as collecting dust because there is nothing to play, when in fact there is a whole Gamecube library sitting there as well that can be played on the Wii.

corbin dallas

I think a major point has been overlooked here. Online gaming. I own all three next gen systems and the one that is getting the most use? You guessed it, the 360. I've never really been a fan of Sony products for the most part but I do like the PS3 but it is sitting collecting dust right now because of the devil himself-Ubisoft and it's demon seed of R6:Vegas and it's little brother GRAW2 an the online multiplayer. Until Sony gets it act together on the Online functions and some system seller games it will be a slow market for them, at least in my opinion. I 'm curious to see if when R6:V comes out on the PS3 it boosts sales and online playing. I'm sure all the M$ haters are not happy that they are missing out on a great game in both R6 and Graw.

I know some will say that they don't use the online gaming function but i'd bet more than 60% of 360 owners are online in some form or another either being an acheivement point whore (which you get no matter what since the silver membership is a freebie or a hard core online gamer. The other remaining percentage may not have it on their network to be online or truly don't like the online aspect, which I don't know how could be humanly possible...

TheMadMonk

All I did was say why the PS3 does not yet interest me. I never said it can't meet your needs.

darkside

Having owned the Wii and PS3 for a bit now I definitely see the PS3 getting the most use. I simply do not like Wii controls on most games I have played. I see myself playing the Wii for the good exclusives and buying everything else on the PS3. I'm just too set in my ways to learn new controls schemes for traditional games. I can't even learn analog stick aiming for FPS games and that has been around for 10 years now.

fujishig

Umm... why isn't the PS3 "gonna bust"? Every generation of PS before it has had some kind of faulty laser problem, even if Sony will never admit it. Because of that, I'm a little cautious in how often I use my PS3 to play regular DVDs. I guess that's besides the point, though.

The 60% number is actually really accurate... according to this article:
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/new...hp?story=13010
It's over 6 million Xbox Live users for over 10 million shipped. It'll be interesting to see how Home does in garnering marketshare... the terrible online interface is one thing I hate about the PS3.

Mr. Cinema

The game choices are weak right now. The unit is a great BD player. I'm not ready to call it a bust when it's only been out for 4 months.

cultshock

Yep, Sony's master plan seemed to be to use the PS3 as a trojan horse for Blu-ray. It was a huge risk to take, causing a big delay in it's introduction (giving the 360 quite an advantage), and a bigger price tag (leading to a higher retail price that would discourage many people from buying one, plus causing Sony to take a big loss per unit). If Blu-ray wins the format war, and actually reaches anywhere near the popularity of DVD (the former is very likely at this point, the latter is too hard to predict at this point) than the PS3 could be considered a big success as it achieved it's main purpose. Any success it has as a gaming machine is gravy.

I bought the PS3 as a Blu-ray player, and am very happy with it. But now I find myself wanting to buy videogames for the first time in quite a number of years. This may be a little side effect that could make things interesting (not sure if this was something that Sony also counted on or not), the PS3 turning movie fans into game buyers (I'm sure I'm not the only one), especially once they can get a better selection of games out there.

Breakfast with Girls

Exactly. The Sims Online only began to take off once they added killing.

Anubis2005X

I'm a lot less worried about my PS3's laser failing than I would be about the 360's flashing rings of red. I've never heard of a system having so many hardware problems as the 360, and yes, this influenced which HD system I chose to go with...

darkside

Same here. I was one of those people that suffered through PS2 failures and was ready to write off the PS3 because of it. However, the console that I kept finding people having problems with was the 360. The PSP was a solid piece of hardware and it seems the PS3 is built solidly as well. I know the PS3 has only been out a short time, but the horror stories with the 360 started week one and have never stopped. My decision to buy the PS3 was definitely influenced some by the red ring of death. I think the 360 has far surpassed the PS2 as the most unreliable console every made.

outer-edge

Almost word for word the comment I made to my wife.

I think the biggest problem with Home however is most casual gamers won't care and therefore it still won't sell those extra systems. 360 is pulling in new customers, Wii is pulling in new customers. PS3 may be left trying to rely on the established gamer crowd, some of whom are passing the system by. I know I am for now, and it will take a lot for me to ever bite.

I don't think PS3 is out of the race by a long shot, but I do think they have some major ground to cover. I keep hearing the gaming press talking about the "big titles" yet to come, but every day those become less of an interest as new and more exciting games are announced and shown off. Also, as new gamers come to the hobby, big name sequels aren't system sellers to them as much as long time gamers. Sony doesn't need to reinvent the wheel to make their system good, but they need to do something different than what they are doing.

Frankly, this is probably the last thing on my list for deciding on any electronics. My DVD player, PS2, Xbox, etc. all play music CDs, but I never use it for that. My Xbox/PS2 play DVDs, but never get used for it. Our iPod only plays music, and I'm happy with it. I just prefer having the stand alone and I want a game system as a game system. Consumers are varied and not everyone is looking for all-in-one yet.

DodgingCars

I actually get Ocelot's point of it being an all-in-one system. I'm just not willing to spend $600 for something that I don't need (other than Blu Ray, I can play games, listen to music, and play movies on other devices).

I still think that a lot of people interested in HD games and powerhouse FPS and online gaming are probably looking at the 360 right now -- $200 cheaper. If I wanted a Blu Ray player, I'd consider it.. but I'm not going to spend $600 on something that I honestly only see as marginally better than DVD. Yes, that's my opinion. I've seen both HD DVD and Blu Ray in person (HD DVD was set up by professionals for the HD DVD tour) and while impressive, it certainly wasn't impressive enough for the investment it currently cost.

darkside

Blu-ray was a huge feature for me. Things that play DVDs and CDs are a dime a dozen, but getting an all in one for games, Blu-ray and SACDs is a PS3 exclusive and the only reason its worth the high cost.

jeffdsmith

I believe there is an error in Gamasutra's reporting. Its correct that MS has shipped 10 Million 360's, and its correct that 6 Million people are on live. The mistake occurs in their assertion that they are all on the 360. From my understanding of the press release MS issued, the 6 million number includes regular Xbox Live and 360 users. Marketing spin at its finest I'm afraid. Nevertheless, pretty large number of paying gamers.

porieux

They would be lucky if that were true; the N64 is one of the greatest consoles ever. However, Sony will never be in the same league as Nintendo in this space---they just don't understand games. Their crappy controller which hasn't been improved since the PS1 days is a prime example of that.

tanman

Very good discussion here. These last few months have been very interesting and surprising in terms of video games. I really wonder how much it will play into the long run though.

But to analyze the PS3 lets look at why the PS1 and PS2 were so sucessful.

For the PS1 it offered a new choice. It was a choice that wasn't nintendo and wasn't Sega. I think the biggest seller was the technology. CD-Rom technology was relatively unknown and more importantly untapped in the general public. The second thing that really helped them was exclusives. I think one of, if not the biggest reason for Sony's success is the Final Fantasy exclusive. I think really pushed the PS1 in the hearts of gamers. After that I think the 3rd party publishers really helped keep it going.

I think the main reason why the PS2 was so successful was because of it's massive 3rd party support and exclusives. As well as the diversity of it's games. Everyone had a PS2 because everyone could find a game that they like. Some only play sports games, others, RPG's some have even bought the system just because of Karaoke Revolution. That diversity and the exclusiveness of certain 3rd parties launched the PS2 to massive success (I believe) never to be duplicated again. It was also a cheap DVD player but I don't think that was really a deciding factor. It might have played a larger role in the beginning of it's life but really only accounted for a very small percentage in the end. Another big factor I believe is loyalty. There were legions of PS1 fans that transferred over to the PS2.

Now let's look at the PS3. It is technologically superior like the PS1 but no where near the gap that the PS1 enjoyed over the N64. For all intents and purposes the games look the same on an 360 as they do on a PS3. They do have BluRay but I really don't think that will play a major role in the end. It might be a big factory now but really how many people that bought a PS3 would have bought a BluRay player within the next few months, probably quite a few as they are really early adopters of technology. That affect will have even less impact as BluRay players start dropping in price. It will be only a few months now that BluRay players are the same price as a PS3. By the holidays it will be less then a PS3.

But everyone knows that its the games that sell a system. I think that the amount of exclusive 3rd party support on the PS3 is smaller then the previous generation. Worse then that it seems to be dwindling. The PS1 garnered a lot of support because of the cheap CD-Roms vs. the Nintendo cartridge. The technology was just better and Nintendo was arrogant. The PS2 had large support due to loyalty both from buyers and publishers and the shear numbers of PS2's. Also by this point Microsoft was relatively new and Nintendo had already pushed a lot of publishers away. I think the reason why they lost a lot of loyalty was the price. The difference between the PS1 and PS2 was what? $150? Now the price difference between the two is $370-470. That really does alienate a lot of the mass market that the PS2 has sold to. Not only that the price is so high that it really even alienates hard core gamers. That leaves a potential market of sony loyalists with deep pockets and early adopters of technology.

Now we are at a point in time were. Sony does not have the loyalty it once did. It doesn't have the numbers of systems and doesn't really have superior technology. They also have fewer exclusive system sellers as publishers now see MS as a very established platform and can just port games to both systems. They simply cannot and will not achieve any sort of dominance that they enjoyed with the PS2. It is impossible because the factors that came together with the PS1 and PS2 simply are not there. While they rested on their laurels and focused on Blu Ray, both of their competitors have read their market and gauged their strengths and are now playing to them. Both MS and Nintendo seem to continually push themselves and improve every aspect of their platform while Sony just seems to want to push Blu Ray and let 3rd party publishers make the games that will be unique. Look at their controller. The same exact controller it was ten years ago. Sony just doesn't seem willing to or able to improve and innovate.

Drexl

That's true. The PS3 won't be a bust because Japanese developers won't allow it. The ones that want to push the graphical envelope can't do it on Wii, and they won't do it on the 360 because they can't sell them in Japan. You have companies that feel that certain games "belong" on Sony's consoles, such as the Tekken series and Final Fantasy (spinoffs, online-only games, and remakes on handhelds don't count as "core" FF games).

I think it will be helpful to them when they get some unique game experiences that can't be had on other systems. Let's take a look at arguably the top 3 exclusive games so far: Resistance, Virtua Fighter 5 and Motorstorm. At the end of the day, Resistance is another FPS, VF5 is another fighting game, and Motorstorm is another racing game. Granted, they are exceptional examples of their genres, but it's not as if there aren't ample substitutes elsewhere. Perhaps Lair can be that unique game.

One thing I think Sony needs to do is rethink that idea about discontinuing the 20GB version (if they're even considering that at all). That extra $100 may not be much to a die-hard fanboy or someone who wants BD playback and media center use, but as time goes on there will be more people who want it just for games. They will likely balk at the idea of having to pay $200 more than the competition. Microsoft could kind of get away with it because their premium system is a no-brainer anyway, but Sony's is far from it. Not everyone even has broadband internet access, let alone a wireless network to use wi-fi.

Michael Corvin

Blue Dragon has proved that they can. They just need MORE of it. Not to mention Capcom is proving that you don't have to cater to the Japanese crowd to rake in millions. See Lost Planet & Dead Rising. Japan just needs more open minded developers that see what Blue Dragon and Capcom have accomplished. I think we may see a change in the way things are done since

Face it, THE system in Japan this generation is the DS. It is unstoppable. Japan is no longer the worldwide leader in console sales, the US is. To make money developers now have to cater to the worldwide leader if they want to make it. With the exception of the DS every other next-gen console has sold roughly half of what the US has. Capcom had the foresight to see and benefit from this, I doubt many developers are far behind. And once they do realize that the US market is where the money is to be made, where will they turn? The system with 6 million in sales or the system with 1.3 million(in America)? Loyalty only gets you so far.

jeffdsmith

The developers may "feel" that way, but at the end of the day they have to make money. We need only to look at studios like Clover to see what happens when good ideas go wasted on the masses failing to make a business case.

The point is, wiith such high development costs due to technological prowess and difficulty of working with the PS3, the PS3 needs to find a large market quickly to make the large game development you speak of sustainable.

The 360 and Wii have nearly reached that point (for different reasons). You are producing new game, you have a limited budget, limited time. What do you want to take your risk on given all the facts of the situation? That is what real developers are facing, and that is why PS3 is seeing reduced exclusivity, the bread winner of the Sony nameplate.

maxfisher

This whole discussion kind of hinges on the definition of the word 'bust'. If we're talking about whether or not the PS3 is going to achieve the market share that the PS2 had, I'm extremely confident that it will be a bust. Microsoft and Nintendo have both improved considerably this generation and both will capture a larger share of the market as a result.

If we're talking about whether or not the PS3 will at least have the largest market share of the three, I'd say it's possible, but far from a certainty. I honestly think the Wii has the best odds for now. Honestly, I've found it's lineup to be a little lackluster to this point. It has some fun games, but Zelda and Wii Sports are the only ones I've played that have really stood out to me. That said, I don't think the previous 'non-gamers' are disappointed at all. I know it's only anecdotal, but I've talked to quite a few Wii owners who hadn't owned a system for the past 5-10 years. Every one of them that I've talked to seems to be getting a lot more enjoyment out of their Wii than those of us who play games on a regular basis. Nintendo seems to be succeeding in growing the market and I think it's got a good chance at propelling them to number one. And even if Ninendo is somehow removed from the equation, I would still think that Microsoft and Sony are on pretty even ground for this generation.

Lastly, 'bust' could mean that Sony's going to sell so little that they're not even a significant force this generation. I think this kind of thinking is as naive as thinking that they're totally going to dominate. Like it or not, they have a huge established market share and there are a lot of people that won't consider buying anything but a PS3. And while their current line-up kind of sucks and they have lost a fair number of exclusives, there are guaranteed to be some kick ass, AAA games that are only available on the PS3. The masses might wait until some of these come out and there is a price drop (or two or three...), but I think a lot of gamers who currently think the PS3 is pretty lame will eventually end up getting one.

The Bus

I've read a number of interviews with developers where they say that this generation no one console will have more than 40% or less than 30% share. That sounds about right to me. I just don't see Sony replicating the success of the PS2 with the PS3.

Tracer Bullet

There was a time when Final Fantasy "belonged" on Nintendo systems. Just saying...

Decker

It doesn't play SACDs, does it? I mean any CD player can play SACD hybrids, but for true SACD playback, you need those 5.1 dedicated outputs, which the PS3 doesn't have.