Tracer Bullet

There is absolutely no way Sony or Microsoft will go ten years before launching a new console.

Of course, I also think that both HD DVD formats are going to be considered failures. By the time enough people own HDTVs, downloading will be ready for prime time.

TheMadMonk

That is the joke. I'm making a joke based on a stereotype. It is all tongue-in-cheek. Can nobody see the "winking icon" in both my posts? I have an iPod. I'm not against Apple.

Anubis2005X

Tongue-in-cheek is not allowed on this forum...

Michael Corvin

I caught the but I couldn't resist the urge to return the joke at the pre-existing Microsoft stereotype that gushes and gaws over their latest tech(CES2007 & Vista features) which Apple introduced 5 years prior(and no doubt does better). But that hot debate should be left for TechTalk.

Now back at hand. Apple doesn't rush into anything. I do not see them attempting a console at all. Steve Jobs is a pretty bright guy and surely sees how crowded the marketplace is. The only area I maybe see him getting into is handhelds. Sony is vulnerable there and Nintendo basically owns that market and has for 20 years. He has been [understatement] successful with portable music with the ipod and looks to have a hit on his hands with the iPhone. He knows portable devices and how to market them to the public. At any rate it won't be anytime soon. Plus Apple is, to put it lightly, not known for gaming.

The PS3 will do fine in the long run. It will not be a huge failure. But I can forsee them swapping places with Nintendo this gen leaving MS the middle-man again. Unless you count the PSP, it will take more than one failure to have them abandon their bread and butter market.

Pharoh

I don't disagree with the statement that both disc formats will be 'failures'. It is even more reason why the Sony will do extemely well with the PS3. It is designed with that in mind, and is the best

And I do think we will approach ten years, maybe a couple less. The larger point is that looking at any type of numbers now, or games due out in the next year isn't all that important.

Tracer Bullet

It is designed with what in mind? Downloading HD content? I am skeptical of any advantage the PS3 might have in this area. The reports of games having to install gigabytes of data onto the HD in an attempt to make load times better, for instance. Even if they increase the HD size down the road, they're not going to be able to drive the price of the unit down very much. Sony is never going to get the price of Blu-Ray drive manufacture down very much, and they can't remove Blu-Ray without making all previous game releases unplayable.

PerryD

These statements seem absurd. A bleeding edge technology device isn't going to experience cost reduction over time? What possible basis would you have to compare to? Every CPU ever created in the history of computing has halved in price roughly every 6-9 months. The same holds true for CD and DVD drives (does anybody remember how much the first PC DVD drives cost?), and I'm sure will apply to blu-ray.

The problem Sony had was to put bleeding edge materials into a gaming machine, but the price will drop and will drop at a fairly quick rate. I can almost guarantee that the price of the base PS3 will be $299 by the fall of 2008.

JM

Passage of time is not the only or even the biggest reason why technology prices fall. Economies of scale play perhaps the biggest role. Given the rather lackluster sales of the PS3 (they are easily found in retail stores in many places, including my area) and Blu-Ray in general, there is some doubt whether Sony will be able to reap the benefits of EofS...

Tracer Bullet

Exactly. I believe that Blu-Ray will never get this, at least not enough to be able to drive the cost down very much.

PerryD

So how many units do you think the PS3 will sell this year? I'd guess at least 10 million, that's not enough units to drive costs down?

Josh H

I doubt they hit that without a price drop and/or something like Final Fantasy or MGS4 making it out before December (and giving enough time for console sales to pick up to hit that level).

darkside

10 million is impossible at the current price point. 5 million will be a huge year for Sony.

Supermallet

Considering Microsoft only shipped 10 million in a year at $200 less than the PS3, something momentous would have to happen to get the PS3 to sell 10 million this year.

Michael Corvin

Exactly. Looking at all the features, games, exclusives, Live, the arcade, price - it is just a better overall system. Right now PS3 has the 360 beat in exactly one area... raw horsepower, but that didn't help the Xbox last gen. It's amazing MS didn't push more units than they did. Makes you wonder if it is either 1.)People waiting on PS3 or 2.)price.

If it is #2 Sony is in serious trouble. If people are hesitant about a $400 console with features that blow the compitition away, what does that say about the forecast for the PS3?

If it is #1 it will boil down to if those people that waited now think it was worth it and decide to pull the trigger on that $600 investment and not decide to go with the alternative.

Josh H

Sony does have an advantage over MS in that the Japanese will actually buy the PS3 though.

But I still don't think that will help enough to get them to 10 million sold this year.

Josh H

I think it's a combination of the 2. $400 is too much for most casual gamers, and many casual gamers are engrained in the Playstation name. Time will tell how many are engrained enough to shell out $600 with the lacking exclusives though.

Michael Corvin

Will they though? AFAIK they are sitting on shelves over there as well. Couple that with the fact they got a price drop before release to begin with and only got a fraction of the systems the US got.

argh923

Are you kidding?

PerryD

Analysts recently downgraded PS3 shipments through 2007 from 22 million to around 14 million. My guess is closer to 10 million.

Right now they are around 2 million units shipped, 1 million in the US and 1 million in Japan. European launch is in March. Considering that I believe that a $100 price drop will occur in time for E3 in May, I don't see it being that difficult for Sony to reach 10 million year end.

Considering there aren't that many games available yet, 2 million isn't too bad at this point. With Virtua Fighter 5 coming out next month, sales in Japan should be very strong. After playing the demo, I'm looking forward to Motorstorm in March. I'm also a Sega freak, so Virtua Tennis, Golden Axe and Sega Rally may be purchases depending on how the reviews are. By the end of this year, the big system sellers will have been released like Metal Gear Solid 4, Final Fantasy XIII, Tekken 6 and possibly Gran Turismo.

Josh H

They will as soon as some killer RPG comes out, or MGS4, or any other game they are crazy for over there.

They just have no incentive to buy them yet either as the current game library sucks balls.

In the US I'm not so convinced that even a couple killer games will have them flying off shelves sans a $200 price drop to come in line with the 360.

In Japan in likely will as they have no interest in the 360, so the PS3 is their only option for a true next gen machine.

Ralph Wiggum

Sony is a force in all three regions; Microsoft is only a force in the U.S.

TheMadMonk

Fixed.

Microsoft's Market Cap is 305 Billion
Sony's Market Cap is 47.12 Billion.

Chris_D

Fixed mark 2.

Ralph Wiggum

Xbox + 360 haven't sold that much in Europe, though.

Chris_D

Dude, only 4.5 million of the 10 million are sold in the US. Where do you think the rest went? Japan?