Scandal, I think you and I are on the same wave length here.

Re: correct me if I'm wrong
 

We're in agreement, except on this. If MS throws in the towel on XBox and comes out with XBox 2, many gamers will not touch it, because the original XBox will be perceived as a failure. Basically, if Microsoft wants to succeed with an XBox 2, they will have to support XBox through a full lifespan, even if that means losing money on it.

Then, they'll have to launch the XBox 2 against the PS3 (which will be heavily favored by developers and gamers) and they will have to beat Sony out of the gate by undercutting the price and having a better launch lineup. And, even if they do everything right, the masses may stick to Sony out of habit.

Sony has turned Playstation into a brand that is associated with a lifestyle. Musicians and athletes tote their PS2's around with them. XBox has to have all the breaks to ever hope to topple Sony's dominance. But things can change.

You can not compare Sony's launch with Microsoft's launch. Sony had no competion when it launched, and since most people couldn't get their hands on one anyways, it wasn't as big of a deal. People were happy with Madden and SSX because they were extremely happy to have a PS2 (while others couldn't). If you notice, Sony started dropping tons of must have titles around the Nintendo and Microsoft launch times, and dropped MGS2 with in days of the launches. This was Sony's real launch, cause it was the first time they had competition. If you compare numbers during this period, you will see that Sony came out ahead and continued to kill through Christmas.

I personally wouldn't say the GC or X-box had many games I would want at launch anyways. I didn't like any of the GC launch titles (all 3 of them right?) and Halo would have been the only X-box I would have picked up (and the only one I would pick up today).

The GCN launched with 12 games. Here's the games on www.planetgamecube.com's release dates list that were out on or before 11/18/01.

Wave Race: Blue Storm
Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3
Super Monkey Ball
Rogue Leader: Rogue Squadron 2
NHL Hitz 2002
Madden NFL 2002
Luigi's Mansion
Disney's Tarzan Untamed
Dave Mirra Freestyle BMX 2
Crazy Taxi
Batman: Vengeance GC
All Star Baseball 2002

Several more games came out between the 18th and early December, including SSX Tricky, Fifa Soccer, and most notablely Pikmin and Super Smash Bros: Melee.

That's a pretty damn solid launch line-up followed up with some very good games between launch and X-mas.

Personally I thought it was the best launch line-up ever. I picked up Rogue Leader, Wave Race, THPS3 and Madden at Launch. And At every other system launch (SNES-present) there was only one or two games I wanted. I picked up Super Monkey Ball and SMB:M for X-mas and have bought NBA Street and NBA2K2 so far this year.

I couldn't be happier with the GCN's line-up this early in the game,and there's a ton of great games coming out later this year, starting with Resident Evil in a couple weeks.

Of course this is all subjective and others could think the line-up sucks. It just depends on what you like to play.

I do agree with you comments on Halo. It's still the only X-box game I'd really love to play through.

joshd2012, you fail to address any of my valid points and only repeat yourself.

Look at the "logic" you are using. You claim that I can't "assume" Nintendo will release great titles. (Yeah right... Hello? It's Nintendo, it's what they do, otherwise they don't release it.) However, you "assume" that a continous flow of games will always be present on the PS2. It's the same thing. We are both crediting 2 companies that have a reputation for a particular formula of personal success. So how can you easily dismiss mine? You can't.

I would really like you to look back at my points and address them one at a time. Also please consider what I'm saying an stop being purely defensive. I will repeat: Things arn't so clear cut and dry. If they were then the PS2 would have no competition following your logic.

I also ask anyone else to review the points I have brought up and to examine them honestly and discuss them. I fail to appear to be able to reach joshd2012. I'm curious what others think as no one has yet to address my particular interest with this post with the exception of joshd2012. Anybody?

Like I said, joshd is a PS2 owner and his opinions are biased. It is totally useless to argue with a person with his type of attitude. If you look at his posts most of them are bashing other consoles, while he praises the PS2 only. 'Nuff said.

Logon, you are intitled to your view. However, I am hopeful that he is not the total fanboy you beleive his is. I think we may just have a lack of communication. I am however, quite sure i get his "point".

Which games will sell the best?
Predicting how games will sell is tough. However, with as many titles as the PS2 has in development and with their big market lead giving them highest priority with many developers I would think they are looking pretty good going into the future. If I had to guess which console will have the most games I will want to buy over the next year I will predict the PS2.

The Gamecube obviously has some big titles on the horizon as well. I won't be surprised if the Gamecube ends up having some of my single favorite titles in the next year. I'm sure Mario, Zelda, and Metroid will probably live up to the hype. I still think overall I will buy more PS2 games.

The Xbox is still a mystery to me. I'm going to get the Spiderman game for it, but right now I don't plan for much with this console. I'm expecting to know better after E3.

Obviously any guess is just that, a guess. But, I think Nintendo will have some of the top selling games with Sony selling the most games overall. Xbox might bring up the rear unless they have some big announcements at E3.

Can the market support three consoles?
I'm not sure. My best guess is No, but Microsoft and Nintendo will support their consoles even if they lose money. So its safe to own a Gamecube or Xbox. I see all three consoles being around for quite awhile.

Will the Xbox catch on in Japan?
No, I just can't see it happening. The odds are slim at best.

Will the Gamecube catch on in the US?
First off the N64 was not a disaster. It did very well for Nintendo, especially in the US. The top selling games of the year list for the past few years was loaded with N64 titles. The Gamecube will continue to do well for Nintendo. Nintendo will always have their place in the market. They won't be number 1, but the Gamecube and Game Boy Advance will still make Nintendo a lot of money.

Will Sony continue to dominate the console market?
Yes, this round is over and Sony has won. Nintendo and Microsoft can still sell consoles and make money though. Its a big market and consumers spend lots of money on games. At least in the US all three may be successful.


These are of course my opinions. I've been buying games for a long time and this is how I see things. My opinions are given before E3 though. Microsoft and Nintendo could both announce things that could make the future brighter for both.

I'll use darkside's format to reply to your points Jeff.

Which games will sell the best?
Nintendo's first party games will likely top the charts. Even the somewhat dissappointing N64 featured several chart topping games.

Sony has support from every major third party developer, so you can be assured they will continue to get good games, if not as exclusives, at least coming out first in most cases.

Looking at Flay's release thread, I just don't see any games that will sell well to the joe six pack casual gamer crowd that purchases most games. However, MS could have something up their sleeves.

Will the Xbox catch on in Japan?
No way, they are getting little support from Japanese developers and Japanese gamers are fickle and have never cared for American games. With is selling poorly in Japan, it's unlikely to see many, if any, Japanese developers jump on board.

Will the Gamecube catch on in the US?
Definitely. Even the N64 sold pretty well here. RE will sell some consoles, as will Eternal Darkness and Star Fox Adventure. The big games (Mario, Metroid, Zelda) should have consoles flying off the shelves. As you said above, a Nintendo game is pretty much a sure fire hit. They simply don't release a game if it isn't up to their A+ standards. With the line-up, and the X-box's weak line-up IMO, the GCN should be solidly in 2nd place by the end of the year, if not before.

Will Sony continue to dominate the console market?
Yep, they're are too far ahead and have the best third party support of any system. The only chance for MS or Nintendo to catch up is to put out killer software to help lessen the gap, and then outsmart sony in the next generation with an earlier release or with a lower price and a killer launch line-up.


All of this will be much clearer after E3. MS might have someting up their sleeve. Nintendo is always full of surprises, and Sony's been pretty quiet lately.

However, I've been an avid gamer since the late 80's and I'm pretty confident in my predictions above. ;)

I think the competition is more between Xbox and PS2 because they overlap more than either does with GC. Because Nintendo has so many exclusive games I think they're safe. And because they own the games they don't have to deal with the bidding wars and financial risks Sony and MS do to get exclusive rights.

Getting a GC was an easy decision. Deciding between PS2 and Xbox is harder. When PlayStation first came out I was sure it would do well because Sony has money to throw around. Now you could say the same thing about MS with Xbox. But the difference is Xbox's acceptance in Japan. Who knows how that will pan out. Also, Sony is competing against a more powerful (technically superior) system. What happens when PS3 arrives? Will Xbox2 go head-to-head with it or will they continue to stagger?

Right now the two really overlap, but maybe each will develop into a nitche. I'm not sure there's room for both and I would give the edge to Sony because of Japan. But it's not like MicroSoft is going anywhere anytime soon.

I guess there's some concern about Nintendo doing what Sega did but I think Mario, Zelda, Metroid et al can sell a lot more systems than Sonic did. Once they sell those systems I think third party developers will come around. Enough sloppy ports already.

If the ps2 price drops and nintendo follows, I see a lot of GCs going out the door. I would buy one pretty quick once all the new games come out and the price drops. It would make a great second system and plenty of kiddie games.

I think it is a fair comparison of how long it takes to get a new console truly up and running... My experience with the 2 consoles since their launches has been overwhelmingly in the X-Box's favor.

If the PS2 drops to $199 and the GameCube drops to $149, how much do you think the Xbox will drop? Any response is greatly appreciated.

- Shawn

Hard to tell. MS will have more difficulty as they purchase their components from other companies who want to make a profit. My guess would be a drop to $249, if a drop at all.

The problem is that the XBox may not get up and running. The XBox launch lineup is definitely better than the PS2 launch lineup, but the PS2 Nov 2001 lineup was a heck of a lot better than the XBox launch. To make headway against the PS2, the XBox had to compete with the second generation of PS2 games, not the PS2's launch games.

The PS2 had the luxury of a crappy launch, because it launched with a year's headway. So Sony worked to delay all the big games to come out at the same time as the new consoles. As a result, there was a long period where few big games were coming out for the PS2. But then, Sony got out MGS2, GTA3, Devil May Cry, Final Fantasy X, SSX Tricky, and Tony Hawk 3 right when the XBox launched. The PS2 actually has a larger lead in units sold over the XBox than it did the day before the XBox launched, because the PS2 has consistantly outsold XBox in every market since November.

So comparing launches is moot. If the XBox wanted their launch to compete with the PS2 launch, Microsoft should have launched a year earlier. As it is, XBox doesn't have the chance to mature the way the PS2 did. The PS2 has the user base, and it is securing the exclusive titles and adding to its sales dominance.

Nintendo can afford not to worry about user base. As a large scale developer/publisher, they can put out a ton of exclusive games and make money even as a distant second place. Microsoft relies on their third parties, so they have to build the base to attract games. They haven't.

I don't know how to make this any clearer.

Plus Nintendo's first party exclusive games are among the most popular and best selling games of all time. When they come to the GCN the trend should continue, meaning that these games will sell a ton of consoles and expand the user base.

Nintendo certainly feels this way, Nintendojo just reported that Nintendo has shipped 4 million GCNs in North America and Japan and projects that they will sell 12 million world wide by the end of the year.

At any rate GCN sell should pick up with the onslaught of A+ games coming out and they should have a solid hold on second place by years end, assuming that MS doesn't have several killer games (and a price drop) up their sleeves.

The technical superiority of the XBox is completely moot if all the games are ports from PS2. Sony won the sales war. Considering that neither XBox nor GC made a massive splash at Christmas, t's almost inconceivable that either of them will ever contest Sony's numbers.

Nintendo doesn't need to. They exist in their own lucrative little world, and always make money. A lot of people talk about whether they'll pull a Sega and drop out of the hardware market, but between their great game sales, their great Game Boy sales, and their control over their proprietary media, Nintendo can do its thing independently of the other two.

Microsoft and Sony are directly competing with each other, you're right, but Microsoft isn't competing very well. People talk about Microsoft's deep pockets, but their investment is limited by their return. They must make money on XBox. If they don't, there will be no XBox 2. After the dotcom crash, investors don't accept money-losing business plans.

As for XBox in Japan, the magic 8 ball says the outlook doesn't look good. PS2 had an extra year's lead time there, because PS2 launched earlier there and XBox launched later. Everyone owns a PS2 in Japan, and their economic situation does not permit many people to buy a second console. Plus, the console lacks games that appeal to the Japanese market. XBox's killer app, Halo, has very little appeal there. Plus, the Japanese are skeptical of American products. Plus, the sales so far have been absolutely awful.

Ah but here's the rub: the PS2 is masking its true price compared to the Xbox. Once you count in the modem and hard drive, it's a different competition. I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop to $249 though or else $300 with Halo, or maybe even $249 w/Halo.

Is the PS2 really going to drop down to $200? I'd be surprised if that happens, at least withing 1 year of now. Maybe Xmas of '03 we'll see it at $200 and this Xmas it'll be $249.

How many "When is Xbox going to die?" threads do we need anyway? I think I need to come back here in 6 months, I've never seen such a discussion beaten to death over and over again.

Gallant Pig,

Those are fair points. I imagine the PS2 will either drop to $199 in it's current form, or to $249 with a modem/broadband adapter and hard drive packed in. Or maybe even both, with a standard package, and an online gamers bundle.

I think the latter would be the smartest decision. Many people have no interest in online gaming, myself included. A price drop to $199 for a standard PS2 might get me to buy one. I wouldn't pay $249 for the PS2 with modem and harddrive because I'd never use them.

Memory cards are much more reliable than HD's so I wouldn't want to save games to the HD, maybe just as backups. I don't really dig multiplayers games to start with, and when I do play them I want it to be with my friends in the same room, not random people over the net. As for other uses for the HD, patches and what not have never interested me, and would take to long to download anyway as I won't have broadband in the near future as it's simply costs more than I'm willing to pay.

This wasn't a "when will the X-box die" thread. It was simply a thread discussing how we think each system will do in the future. The X-box's future looks the bleakest of the three do to a lack of software that appeals to casual gamers, facing off against the PS2's stellar lineup and the killer line-up of GCN games slated to be released by year's end. That's why it looks somewhat like an X-box bashing thread. The X-box simply has the steepest slope to climb to be successful. They're new, where as Nintendo and Sony have established, loyal fanbases, and they're having problems getting third party exclusive that aren't just niche market games. The poor Japanese sells will do little to help this, as the most of the best game developers IMO (and most console gamers opinions) are in Japan. As it stands with it's current line-up and announced game, the X-box looks like a PC gamer's console. Many console gamers, especially those in Japan, dislike traditional PC games (i.e. FPS, RTS, etc.). So that's another image MS has to shake off to be successful.

Anyway, the point is that it's not people just bashing the X-box. People are simply looking at the facts and making a judgement. Things don't look great for the X-box right now. MS has the money to stick it out, but unless they get some killer exclusive games that will attract the casual gamers, they will be in a distant third place by year's end and as a result it will be unlikely to see an MS system in the next generation.

but that is the true problem. The XBox assumed people wanted to spend hours playing online games. so people would notice the difference in the hardware. Instead it turns out the majority of people do not play games online. so the extra expense that Microsoft is spending to provide that feature is a waste to most.

and then they even wasted that extra expense by waiting so long to even launch the online service. by the time the online service is launched they will be in third place in worldwide sales.

Also the PS2 will drop the price some and sell a modem to those who want online service. Do not be surprised to see the PS2 modem bundled for "free" with FF when it goes online.

since I believe that except for the hardcore gamers most do not even care about online gaming the XBox is saddled with charging everyone more money for this "feature" or absorbing the costs to compete at a larger loss.

Jeff - I know that PS2 is going to have more games released because of how well Nintendo keeps their release dates. Also, just because it is Nintendo, doesn't make it golden. Can we say Virtual Boy?

Logan - I interested to hear what system(s) you own. And I would also like you to point me to where I ever bashed a console. I am eagerly awaiting your responce.

It all boils down to this: are you happy with your system(s) and games? I am. End of argument. :) Later guys.... Keep on typing.

Good Point. Agreed. I'm out.

Well, I'd be very surprised if the PS2 hard drive is successful. I think putting hard drives in consoles is a bad idea that won't continue, but I could be wrong.

The unlimited space for game saves and the music ripping is nice. but the added size makes the console much less portable. You can throw a PS2 or a Gamecube into a backpack and take it with you. The Gamecube is designed for portability. Plus, the hard drive makes the XBox much more fragile than the other consoles.

Also, the hard drive hasn't been put to much use for gameplay purposes. I can't think of a single gameplay-oriented use for a hard drive that couldn't be done just as well with a larger memory card.

It's true, when you factor in a modem and a memory card, PS2 is about $70 more than XBox. Add the hard drive and that's another $100. But Microsoft hasn't been able to sell itself as the better value to the public. Plus, the games still aren't there.

That is all that matters. I've just always followed the industry closely and have an interest in how the systems are performing. For one thing it helps to make informed purchases. I don't want to get burned again like I did with the Dreamcast. Sure it had several very good games, but it's short life span sucked and didn't justify the $200 I paid for it around launch.

It also makes for good conversation when there is no fanboy bashing going on. This has probably the best thread on this topic I've ever seen. Everyone has been posting good, informed opinions (with the exeption of the guy on the first page that just called people fanboys everytime he posted) and it hasn't turned into a flame war.