Which console will die first?
 

Anyone want to hazard a guess? Or is it way too early to tell?

I'm thinking X-Box or GameCube. Both have uncertain futures, but then agin, the PS2 could easily go under if the 3rd party support is ripped from it.

Keep in mind, I think all three systems will survive for awhile, but I think ultimately the Xbox will die first.

Of course, I'm loving my Dreamcast just fine.

I refuse to answer this.
All three will be strong for the next 3 - 5 years.

PS2 obviously. The PS3 is supposed to be finished by 2005.

It's too early to tell, but if all the consoles last five years, obviously the PS2 will "die" first (to be replaced by the PS3), since it launched a year earlier than the other two.

There is no way MicroSoft will be giving up on the XBox system anytime soon and looking at the power it has combined with Halo, GTA 3, Silent Hill 2 & OddWorld titles it is now doing to the market what the PSX was when it came out and will be around for at least 2-3 years before the XB2 will come out.

Just look at the thought that went into XBox DVD, breakaway controllers to protect the system from damage and no memory cards needed to save your games......good stuff.

PS2 will need to goto a PS3 to stay ever so slightly ahead of the game because of the large inventory of games and being able to play the older games as well they should hang in there for the long haul.

GamrCube has a bright future with Mario Kart, Metroid & Resident Evil Special Editions (upcoming movie release which looks very good will cause interest to peak once again and stay there for some time)

Bottom line is they are all here for 2-3 years then it will depend on who does the better job with the product & prices after that.

My 2 cents.

You do realize that PS1 games and consoles are still selling well? Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if they're still outselling XBox games and consoles.

Just give me a link to back it up. I'm sure people keep track of those numbers since PS1 is such a hot console right now outselling the XBox and the Gamecube.

I have heard conflicting things on when exactly the PS3 is coming out. I've heard they are going with some new CEL technology and it could be 2007, or that they could be pushing the new one out the door early to get the jump on other systems.

Who knows?

MS could undermine their next console by putting theirs out earlier. All they have to do is take the latest Nvidia GPU, and the latest Intel or AMD CPU and throw in some ram + HD.

I think we'll all be getting a lot of gameplay out of these current machines so I wouldn't worry about it. Carpe diem. :)

I don't consider the PS3 coming out as the PS2 dying. For a system to die, it must have it's lifespan cut short because it's failing miserably in sales, i.e. the Saturn, the Dreamcast.

Personally, I think all 3 systems will survive fine, and we won't see another system from any of the companies until five years after the launch date of their current systems. But if one was to go down, it would be the X-box. The newcomer always has the steepest road ahead of it. They don't have a loyal audience yet, like nintendo and sony does, and they don't have any killer mascot type franchises yet like Mario, Zelda, Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo etc. Still Microsoft is a huge company, and they've got the financial resources to stick it out until those things develop. A smaller company would have no chance of trying to get a share of the market from Sony and Nintendo. Just like it took a huge company in sony to get enough of the market share from Nintendo and Sega.

The is just the beginning for the XBOX. Who knows what Microsoft has up their sleeves. Although alot of people don't like it, Microsoft tends to swallow the competition rather than cave to them....

Well the Playstation 1 did fine against Nintendo, and Playstation was a new comer.

I to think they will all survive.

eh... truth be told, I ain't got the faintest idea what the latest sales numbers are for the PS1. I do remember being surprised at how strongly it was still selling during the holiday season, though.

Anyway, my point was that if and when the PS3 comes out, the PS2 will likely continue to enjoy a robust life for a couple years afterwards.

Read my whole post, I said the exact same thing. I think all three will survive. All I was saying is that the newcomer has the steepest challenge, but I even used the example of Sony's success to show that a big company can afford to ride the tide and take a couple years to get a decent market share. Microsoft is a huge company, and the X-box is here to stay whether I like it or not.

Here's my take, but keep in mind, I still think it's too early to tell.

Playstation: I think this system has the strongest future of the three. It's locked itself down as a major player, and there's already a ton of good software for it. If I had to buy one system today, this would be the one. The only thing holding it back in my opinion is that it is difficult to develop for and doesn't have the raw power of the other two. However, raw power and ease of development isn't always the winner. I remember as a kid everyone had an Atari, not an Intellivision, even though Intellivision was much more powerful. Atari had better controllers, more games, and the biggest thing: everyone owned one, so you could bring your games to your friends house without bringing the system. That's a big point, and it's the reason I bought a NES back when those were a big deal. I bought a PSX over a N64... why? Because everyone I knew had them.

X-Box: A big X-factor. Microsoft simply will not let this system die. Even if it becomes a huge money pit, Microsoft can afford to just keep throwing money down it. And, I don't doubt that they will. I'm intrigued by it, and it's got some cool features, but the fact that it's based on computer hardware will hurt them in the long run, I'm thinking. Already, I'm waiting until spring/summer when Halo hits the PC (the only game I'm currently interested in), and will likely be better and more expandable. I won't be buying an X-Box any time soon. I expect to see many games ported back and forth from X-Box to PC and vise versa. Since I already have a gaming rig that blows the X-Box specs out of the water, why would I really want an X-Box?

Gamecube: In my opinion, Nintendo's last hurrah. I look at the N64 as a perfect example. Nintendo hasn't grown as a company. They are relying on nostalgia and old characters and games to build their empire. It's not a bad thing to have propriatary characters, and Nintendo does make some great games .... but I haven't really seen them grow. They don't really make many adult, edgy titles, and almost everything has a cartoony feel. I don't recall seeing one realistic racing game for N64. They are selling the same system to the same people they sold systems to 15 years ago. Unfortunately, the market has changed. Some people will buy this because they've always loved Nintendo, and some will buy it because it's a safe choice for the kids, but I don't think it will be enough, especially in the critical 12-25 age market. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo go the route of Sega after this round.

Off topic, Ein, are you sure Halo will be out by the summer? Bungie has been really tight lipped about the PC version. Did you get that release date from somewhere?

I would be very, very surprised if Halo PC is out by summer.

Actually I'll be surprised if it comes out at all, despite what's been said up to this point.

-Naan

PS2 ...I don't want to knock it, but PS3 will replace sometime soon. (before GC and XBOX die)

Nintendo has a 99% monopoly on the handheld market. They have somewhere between 6-8 billion in the bank. We are talknig cash here, not revenue or assets, raw money they can tap at any time. To put this in perspective: MS spent 500 million on advertising the xbox, and that cash is only 3/5th of the way spent. And the damn thing was seen everywhere. Think about what Nintendo could do with all their cash if they wanted to...

This response is not whether the Gamecube will survive, but whether or not Nintendo would become a 3rd party ala sega.

to continue: Nintendo doesn't require to have the largest user base to make alot of money. Having a larger base does make that easier, but it's not necessary. Nintendo's titles sell better then any of the competitions repeativly, grossing large amounts of profit. Nintendo will be around until Nintendo A) Stops making games and enters the automotive buisness ;) or B) They begin to produce bad games.

In terms of your racing games comment... :) Surly you can't call all these "cartoony"...

1080° Snowboarding
Aero Gauge racing
Automobili Lamborghini
Beetle Adventure Racing
California Speed
Carmageddon 64
Cruis'n Exotica
Cruis'n USA
Cruis'n World
Destruction Derby 64
DethKarz
Diddy Kong Racing
Excitebike 64
Extreme-G
Extreme-G 2
F-1 World Grand Prix
F-Zero X
F1 Pole Position
F1 Racing Championship
GT 64 Championship Edition
Hot Wheels Turbo Racing
Hydro Thunder
Indy Racing 2000
Jeff Gordon XS Racing
Jeremy McGrath Supercross 2000
Lego Racers
Looney Tunes: Space Race
Mario Kart 64
Mickey's Speedway USA
Micro Machines 64 Turbo
Mini Racers
Monaco Grand Prix
Monster Truck Madness 64
Multi Racing Championship
NASCAR 2000
NASCAR 99
Off-Road Challenge
Penny Racers
Polaris SnoCross
Rally Challenge 2000
Re-Volt
Rev Limit
Ridge Racer 64
Road Rash 64
Roadsters
Rush 2: Extreme Racing USA
S.C.A.R.S
San Francisco Rush
San Francisco Rush 2049
Sea-Doo HydroCross
Snowboard Kids
Snowboard Kids 2
South Park Rally
Star Wars: Episode I Racer
Stunt Racer 64
Supercross 2000
Test Drive Rally
Top Gear Hyperbike
Top Gear Overdrive
Top Gear Rally
Top Gear Rally 2
Twisted Edge
V-Rally Edition '99
Wave Race 64
Wild Water World Championships
Wipeout 64
World Driver Championship

Mario Kart and Waverace Own.

I agree that all the systems will survive a long time. Although I don't think XBOX will be the first to die. There is no way Microsoft will give it up early, MS is trying to open up to the entertainment market, letting Sony's PS2 outlast it will weaken their position. If XBOX dies first, then, not many people (or companies) will return to the next MS gaming console attempt. MS has big pockets; they don't care if they ever get into the black. Look at MSN, their making nothing on it, but they can afford to keep it.

personally I think the xbox will die first- just not in the way you might think.

since it is based on a pc model i believe they will push the xbox 2 out sooner making it backwards compatible. i would not be surprised to see this happen in 2-3 years. In fact i figure they might do it before the ps3 hits.

it will be easier for microsoft to do the backwards compatibility than it was for Sony.

of course none of us have any idea :)

I voted for Dreamcast rules baby!! :)

In the end, all 3 next gen systems will fail do to overcompetition and market saturation, and then....................

......Sega will unveil their new system which they will have been working on. It was all a ploy for Sega be disguised as a 3rd party. They will have learned the best secrets from all the gaming companies and develop the END ALL CONSOLE! ;)


Actually I have no idea which will die first.

Once the first next generation system comes out, the whole generation is dead by default. There may be one or two more good games to come out, but no one will care, because the next big thing will be too dazzling.

XBox is not expected to break even until 2004. Microsoft's investors likely won't be willing to go for another console until after XBox is shown to be profitable (if it ever is). So I doubt Microsoft will speed out an XBox 2.

The "deep pockets" argument is a common fallacy. Microsoft is liable to investors, many of whose pockets are not terribly deep. If XBox flops, they may not get to retire when they'd planned. And if they sell off MS stock en masse, then Microsoft's deep pockets will be a lot less deep. So Microsoft can't really pour that endless amount of money into XBox, and if the system flops, they'd be nuts to take another crack at the console market.