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Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

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Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

Old 07-19-22, 08:42 PM
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Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/net...gs-1235320371/

Netflix co-CEO Reed Hastings declared during the streamer’s Q2 earnings interview on Tuesday that linear television will go the way of the dinosaur within the next decade.

“It’s definitely the end of linear TV over the next five to 10 years,” Hastings said while discussing Netflix’s financial and subscriber results on the pre-recorded Q&A, which came on the heels of the reveal that the streamer lost 970,000 subscribers in Q2. That loss was actually a win for Netflix, which had originally expected to lose 2 million subscribers by the end of June 30.

Though very bold, Hastings’ thoughts on the state of linear television are hardly a shock given his position at the top of the world’s biggest streamer — and they carry forward data touted by Netflix earlier on Tuesday.



In a letter to shareholders breaking down its Q2 performance, Netflix wrote “in the U.S., which is one of the most competitive markets in the world, we drew more TV viewing time than any other outlet during the 2021-22 TV season nearly matching the combined total of the two most watched broadcast networks.” He added: “And, as Nielsen will announce on Thursday, our share of U.S. TV viewing reached an all-time high of 7.7% in June (vs. 6.6% in June 2021), demonstrating our ability to grow our engagement share as we continue to improve our service.”

See the chart published in Netflix’s Q2 earnings report, data cited to Nielsen, at the bottom of this post.

Also during the Q2 interview, Netflix execs gave an update on the streamer’s cash content spend plan as it continues to make budget-conscious choices while looking to rebuild its market cap. Chief financial officer Spencer Neumann said cash content spend for 2023 will be at “similar levels” as this year, noting that Netflix actually expects to end 2022 having spent around $17 billion on content, rather than its previously forecast $18 billion.

Netflix plans to launch its cheaper, ad-supported option in early 2023. The streamer has struck an exclusive pact with Microsoft to help build out that tier, promising it won’t resemble advertising on broadcast TV.

“We’re optimistic that over a couple of years we can deliver an experience that is fundamentally different than the advertising experience on linear networks in a way that fundamentally benefits all the stakeholders,” Netflix chief product officer and chief operating officer Greg Peters said during the earnings interview.



So how does everyone feel about this? It seems to be heading in that direction. What if there is no more OTA network TV and everything has to be viewed via streaming including news and sports.

But, is there some kind of law somewhere that there has to be free OTA TV? I know there's millions who simply can't afford to pay for TV, especially those with fixed incomes.

Last edited by DJariya; 07-19-22 at 08:48 PM.
Old 07-19-22, 08:50 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

There's still going to be a market for free over the air television. I know a lot people that have antennas.
Old 07-19-22, 10:14 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

It's taken a long time, but I have reached the point where I never watch any broadcast prime-time programming in real time, and hardly watch but a few network shows at all.

That said I still watch local news and information programming, and network news and talk, which is all either live or same day live to tape.

And there is the factor that as long as the electricity is on, the TV works, but no internet service is as reliable.
Old 07-19-22, 10:20 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

I rarely watch anything OTA unless I'm at the bar (whatever they have playing but it's usually something streamed or cable tv) or whenever the World Cup is on via whichever Spanish language channel is broadcasting it.
Old 07-19-22, 10:29 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

Linear TV can also apply to cable networks. Anything that airs on a “schedule” with commercials is what I think he’s talking about.

I’m guessing he thinks programming will be all on demand in the future aside from live sports or live news.

I mean how many of you actually watch live HBO or FX or AMC? Probably not many. I have HBO/HBO Max, but I really don’t watch the “live” counterpart. I’ll watch say Westworld on Max after it airs on TV. Same goes with The Old Man. I’ll watch it next day on Hulu, not live FX.

And if you don’t have good Internet you’re hosed.

Last edited by DJariya; 07-19-22 at 10:38 PM.
Old 07-19-22, 10:49 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

If I'm bored, I'll sometimes turn on the tv and see what's airing live. Otherwise, I'll watch YouTube videos. I do watch the majority of shows on demand on my YouTube TV DVR. I know lots of people still watch Big Brother live and will watch The Bachelor/Bachelorette live on Mondays. I work at a local tv station (CBS affiliate) and we still get tons of calls if anything happens and viewers aren't able to watch Survivor, Big Brother, or The Amazing Race live. They call all the time asking when we're going to air it again for days.
Old 07-20-22, 12:26 AM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

He should be more concerned whether Netflix will be around in 10 years, crowing about losing only a million subscribers in the last quarter.
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Old 07-20-22, 12:28 AM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

I prefer being an original viewer, instead of catching up with everyone else a few seasons down the line.

So maybe I’m not 100% linear, because I will DVR and watch a couple hours later or the next day. But I prefer not to wait and binge.

A perfect example is “In the Dark” (CW). I watch week-to-week via DVR. However, there is the option to wait after the season finale because the whole season appears on Netflix around a few days later (not months/years later like Better Call Saul).

The only show I would 100% watch live with commercials is “24” (if it ever came back). I wouldn’t even wait for a 10 minute DVR delay haha

Last edited by MLBFan24; 07-20-22 at 12:33 AM.
Old 07-20-22, 12:38 AM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

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Old 07-20-22, 01:47 AM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

I dislike having to subscribe to a streaming service if I only want to see a certain show, so typically that show goes unseen by me, and I suspect there are a lot of people like that. The idea that one particular method of content delivery will wipe out all the others is a joke. Society is solidified into many facets like a well-cut gemstone. There will likely always be a segment that uses linear TV to a certain extent, but that share will be smaller.

My watching comprises a lot of streaming, live OTA news, and discs. I also watch linear OTA sometimes as a novelty when I can't decide what else to watch, and I do make it a point to watch Toon In With Me on MeTV many mornings when I am riding my exercise bike. There is room (and need, often) for most everything under the sun.
Old 07-20-22, 09:22 AM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

But where will I get the same tired Cop, Lawyer, and Doctor shows that haven’t changed in 40 years?!
Old 07-20-22, 09:29 AM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

Given the sports contracts that TV have locked down for years to come, can't see it happening.

He should be far more concerned about Netflix losing subscribers. I cancelled my subscription a month or 2 ago (after Ozark ended). If a few more shows I like on it pop back up (like The Crown), then maybe I'll re-subscribe then (or just 'borrow' a log-in).
Old 07-20-22, 09:29 AM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

Originally Posted by philo View Post
He should be more concerned whether Netflix will be around in 10 years, crowing about losing only a million subscribers in the last quarter.
He projects that they will gain a million subscribers next quarter though.


Originally Posted by Count Dooku View Post
It's taken a long time, but I have reached the point where I never watch any broadcast prime-time programming in real time, and hardly watch but a few network shows at all.

That said I still watch local news and information programming, and network news and talk, which is all either live or same day live to tape.

And there is the factor that as long as the electricity is on, the TV works, but no internet service is as reliable.
Local news must be a huge business... every local broadcast station has their own newscast (even when multiple stations are sister stations owned by the same company) and some air like all afternoon. That and sports are probably the hardest to give up even for households that are streaming only. Some of the local newscasts put everything on an app or youtube but I doubt they can afford to retain everyone if somehow the station went away.

Also, right now everyone is subsidizing streaming as a loss leader but if we really had to pay subscription fees to justify the content being made, how much different would it be from cable? There'd have to be a major shift of the big advertisers to streaming and the streaming folk wouldn't like it at all.

But of course the Netflix CEO is going to make bold predictions about the death of the industry that is directly competing with his.
Old 07-20-22, 10:22 AM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

When I am at home, I usually have a 24 hour news channel on in the background (ie. cnn, bbc, fox, etc ...).

Still watch the local news broadcasts before/during supper.
Old 07-20-22, 10:31 AM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

Make some good shit and people will watch. Network TV has sucked for sometime now.... not sure if its because they shifted their resources to streaming. But, I for one rarely watch live tv. There is nothing that interest me on live tv. I might watch the news once in a while but thats about it.
Old 07-20-22, 10:36 AM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

It is not going away for the near future due to sports and news.
Old 07-20-22, 12:03 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

My wife picked up a cheap Fubo account just to watch hockey, and occasionally we'll scroll the other channels to see what's on, but the constant commercial breaks quickly become overwhelming and we switch back to streaming.

Yeah, I think regular TV's days are numbered. There's a certain appeal to being able to turn on something and just have a show be going, but I can see some streaming service figuring out an alternative to that for themselves.
Old 07-20-22, 12:06 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

As others have said, the "good internet" thing is huge (and probably isn't a problem for most of us so I get it). If you don't have great internet you're not going to go to an all streaming solution. If you have data caps you're not going to go to an all streaming solution. And how many of us get internet from cable providers?

The other week we had an internet outage in the middle of watching a movie. We had just moved, so I had to go through some boxes to unpack our physical media, which I hadn't bothered unpacking because... well we have streaming (my cable is actually also tied to streaming/internet).
Old 07-20-22, 12:36 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

Regular TV has been unwatchable for more than 20 years now- constant graphics and crap on the screen, and far too many commercials. The only thing it’s still good for now is live news, and even that might not be an exclusive advantage as the quality of streaming video gets better and unfiltered, uncensored live coverage of events can be seen online. I’d rather see a live camera of something going on as it is than a newscast with someone trying to say that everything is still fine.
Old 07-20-22, 12:38 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

Are you talking about live coverage of events from people on the street or from newscasters?

Because I'm not sure all that live coverage from traditional news sources that are uploaded on streaming/youtube are going to be as viable if the networks shut down and that tv revenue stream is no more...
Old 07-20-22, 01:15 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

Linear TV refers to a classic system when a viewer watches a scheduled TV program when it airs on its original channel. I think people will still watch certain shows live like Big Brother and Survivor. Also, news and sports will be watched live and not time shifted.
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Old 07-20-22, 03:30 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

My elderly parents have one of those TV's that only old people seem to have. You know, the ones without an 'off' button. If they are not watching a ballgame (doesn't matter what kind of ball), it's on Fox News. I presume they turn it off when they go to bed, but in the last 20 years that I've visited, I've never seen it off. So I can easily see these kind of watchers dwindling away. I'm no spring chicken, but I've moved exclusively to streaming over the past 8-9 years and can't imagine watching TV any other way now.
Old 07-20-22, 03:33 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

At the rate Netflix is going they might not be around to see it.
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Old 07-20-22, 03:37 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

I completely agree with Reed. It's heading that way now and streaming (ie. on demand) will only continue to dominate for consumption.

Got rid of Dish 3 years ago. Best decision ever. For "live" TV, my household frequently has Pluto TV or Roku TV on. Plenty of amazingly cool channels to pop into. Serialized TV, movies etc. all through the streamers. We do have a small, cheap OTA antenna but it's worthless to us. Useful for the awards shows but generally, network TV isn't of interest.
Old 07-20-22, 06:26 PM
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Re: Netflix CEO says traditional linear TV will be dead in 5-10 years

Originally Posted by Dan1boy View Post
Got rid of Dish 3 years ago. Best decision ever. For "live" TV, my household frequently has Pluto TV or Roku TV on. Plenty of amazingly cool channels to pop into. Serialized TV, movies etc. all through the streamers. We do have a small, cheap OTA antenna but it's worthless to us. Useful for the awards shows but generally, network TV isn't of interest.
I'm not so special that I am above watching TV with commercials like people have been doing since the beginning of time, but the thing that drives me crazy about Pluto TV is that the commercials are always the same ones.

It's about as bad as watching Antenna or Rewind TV channels and seeing those fucking Medicare ads over and over and over. I called to check my zip code!!
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