Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
10-27-11, 01:55 AM
#26
DVD Talk Legend
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
Viewers know that they probably have Christine's vote because you get to see everything that goes on in both tribes, at all tribal councils, and at RI. Ozzy and his tribe only knows what goes on with their tribe, and what little they see at RI challenges. Obviously if they thought that they could count on Christine, they never would never have done this plan.
10-27-11, 02:31 AM
#27
DVD Talk Special Edition
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
They are not peanut butter and chocolate.
10-27-11, 02:32 AM
#28
DVD Talk Special Edition
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
I'm wondering if Cochran didn't throw the competition after what Ozzy told him at the beginning of the episode. It seems to have worked out pretty well for him. Ozzy is either gone or will come back gunning for the prayer circle after merge. Plus he spared his entire tribe the torture of being forced to watch Jack & Jill.
10-27-11, 02:33 AM
#29
DVD Talk Special Edition
10-27-11, 03:43 AM
#30
DVD Talk Hero
10-27-11, 05:28 AM
#31
DVD Talk Hall of Fame
Thread Starter
And yes, he's a moron.
10-27-11, 05:33 AM
#32
DVD Talk Special Edition
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 1,361
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
Jeremy's Power Rankings after Episode Seven
| Rank | Player | Notes | Trending |
| 1 | Jim | Far and away the front-runner at this point |  4 |
| 2 | Dawn | Not a good edit for Dawn, considering how much of the focus her tribe got. Another week like this would be bad news. |  1 |
| 3 | Cochran | He survives again, but not a favorable edit at all for this point of the game. I don't see how he could get jury votes even if he makes it to the end. | 1 |
| 4 | Coach | Managed to annoy both non-Christians (lots of praying and God talk) and Christians (praying as a strategy, instead of with any sincerity). Quite an accomplishment. | -- |
| 5 | Albert | Moves up by default, since he seems to have a clue about how to play. | 4 |
| 6 | Ozzy | High risk-reward. It probably isn't going to work, but it was probably his only chance to get back in his tribe's good graces. | 2 |
| 7 | Sophie | Irrelevant three episodes in a row. Hard times for a former frontrunner. Probably would do well if she was on the other tribe. | 4 |
| 8 | Brandon | Managed to avoid crying this episode. Unfortunately for him, he avoided any face time as well. Only Crazy Brandon gets face time, and Crazy Brandon can't win. | 1 |
| 9 | Edna | Can we just eliminate all of the bottom six in one episode? | 1 |
| 10 | Christine | Impressive RI run but no face time? No long-term future in the game. | 1 |
| 11 | Whitney | Can we just eliminate all of the bottom four in one episode? | 1 |
| 12 | Keith | Can we just eliminate all of the bottom four in one episode? | 1 |
| 13 | Elyse | Can we just eliminate all of the bottom four in one episode? | 1 |
| 14 | Mustache | Can we just eliminate all of the bottom four in one episode? | 1 |
| -- | Mikayla |  | |
10-27-11, 05:37 AM
#33
DVD Talk Limited Edition
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Under a dead Ohio sky
Posts: 5,820
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
You're assuming he even makes it to the jury vote. Hes going to have the biggest bullseye on his back out of everyone after the merge. Hes's isolating and separating himself from his tribe at a time when he should be strengthening his alliances and thinking about the endgame. Now hes completely out of the game while everyone else is free to plot against him and decide when is the best point blindside him after the merge. Assuming he even makes it back. Its a dumb move even if it works.
10-27-11, 05:41 AM
#34
DVD Talk Special Edition
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 1,361
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
Ozzy seems very foolish, but then again it could be brilliant. IF the merge happens and IF he beats Christine, then his tribe will be incredibly loyal to him--which he needs, because otherwise he'd have had--hands-down--the largest target on his back post-merge. But if this makes his tribe more loyal to him than Coaches tribe is to him (which is possible), this could be a brilliant move and get their six far in the game.
10-27-11, 07:43 AM
#35
DVD Talk Legend
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
Maybe Ozzy thinks he'll come back with Super Powers like Lawon on BB
10-27-11, 08:06 AM
#36
DVD Talk Legend
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
I think I just read somewhere recently that Probst indicated that would not be the case this season.
What a crazy and entertaining episode. Sure the plan is bizarre, but you can see some logic in it I suppose. Seems like merge hints were tossed about a time or two, with Jeff making a big deal about the winner of this challenge having a numbers advantage on the other tribe.
Lots of laughs in the final minutes. When Ozzy reveals he's changed his mind, only to laugh in Cochran's face about it.
Then to see him almost take a victory sprint away from Tribal Council. Win or lose, what a memorable moment.
10-27-11, 08:29 AM
#37
DVD Talk God
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV)
Posts: 130,262
Received 614 Likes
on
493 Posts
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
I'll love watching it play out, but I, for the life of me, cannot figure out the logic of this strategy given that Christine would be near certain to join forces with their side anyhow, given how bitter she is (which they've witnessed at the duels).
Last edited by Red Dog; 10-27-11 at 09:20 AM.
10-27-11, 08:59 AM
#38
DVD Talk Limited Edition
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
I get the sense that this is more about gaining his tribes loyalty post-merge than being afraid Christine is going to be loyal to her old tribe. Ozzy is no mental giant, but he has to realize that Christine has no love loss for her original tribe. This really makes a ton of sense if he can win at RI. He goes back and instead of being an instant target for the other tribe (and a few of his own tribe), he may be ensuring himself in at least the final six. I'm sure he'd take his chances against all the people that remain in the tribe.
As much as I'd enjoy a crazy move like this to succeed, I'd be just as interested to see someone with a mad-on the size that Christine must be carrying come back into the game.
As much as I'd enjoy a crazy move like this to succeed, I'd be just as interested to see someone with a mad-on the size that Christine must be carrying come back into the game.
10-27-11, 09:01 AM
#39
DVD Talk Limited Edition
10-27-11, 09:02 AM
#40
DVD Talk Limited Edition
10-27-11, 09:10 AM
#41
DVD Talk Legend
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
I'm sort of curious why Ozzy let Cochran of all people be the 'keeper of the hidden immunity idol'. And is there a rule you can't bring a HII to Redemption Island and back? Because assuming his plan goes how he hopes, his team shouldn't need to play the idol at the time between him getting voted off and him returning to the game. The only scenario where it makes sense (aside from a rule where it becomes invalid if you go to RI) is if the tribes merge and hold a tribal council *before* Ozzy returns from RI.
10-27-11, 09:24 AM
#42
DVD Talk God
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Directionally Challenged (for DirecTV)
Posts: 130,262
Received 614 Likes
on
493 Posts
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
I get the sense that this is more about gaining his tribes loyalty post-merge than being afraid Christine is going to be loyal to her old tribe. Ozzy is no mental giant, but he has to realize that Christine has no love loss for her original tribe. This really makes a ton of sense if he can win at RI. He goes back and instead of being an instant target for the other tribe (and a few of his own tribe), he may be ensuring himself in at least the final six. I'm sure he'd take his chances against all the people that remain in the tribe.
As much as I'd enjoy a crazy move like this to succeed, I'd be just as interested to see someone with a mad-on the size that Christine must be carrying come back into the game.
As much as I'd enjoy a crazy move like this to succeed, I'd be just as interested to see someone with a mad-on the size that Christine must be carrying come back into the game.
The whole other thing is that we don't have any idea when that RI person will re-enter. There seems to be this assumption that it will happen at the same time as a merge.
10-27-11, 09:28 AM
#43
DVD Talk Gold Edition
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: Earth
Posts: 2,049
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
I don't know if it's near certain. If she decides to stick with Upolu, they would have a 7-5 advantage. That can't be ignored or taken lightly either.
10-27-11, 11:14 AM
#44
DVD Talk Legend
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
I'm not assuming that at all. I think his odds of winning are very slim, just that his odds (from his perspective) are now slightly greater: 0.1% > 0%. His odds of making the final two/three went down, but his odds of winning went up. The circumstances necessary for this to be an OK move are very specific though: the person must have zero chance at winning a jury vote beforehand. Breaking down the math further:
(Odds he wins the RI challenge * odds that the merge happens now * odds that his tribe accepts him back as their champion) > (odds that he sweeps the individual immunity challenges * the odds that his tribe forgets how big of a douche he has been).
I think it is going to end up being a spectacular failure, but that doesn't mean it doesn't give him a slightly greater chance of winning, since a microscopic chance of winning is better than no chance at all.
Note: If they knew that Christine would switch, it would obviously be a terrible play. I'm going on the assumption that it isn't as obvious to them as it is to viewers. Even Ozzy, as horrible as he is at strategy, wouldn't do this if they knew Christine would switch. Jim, who is good at strategy, definitely wouldn't let them do it if they knew Christine would switch.
(Odds he wins the RI challenge * odds that the merge happens now * odds that his tribe accepts him back as their champion) > (odds that he sweeps the individual immunity challenges * the odds that his tribe forgets how big of a douche he has been).
I think it is going to end up being a spectacular failure, but that doesn't mean it doesn't give him a slightly greater chance of winning, since a microscopic chance of winning is better than no chance at all.
Note: If they knew that Christine would switch, it would obviously be a terrible play. I'm going on the assumption that it isn't as obvious to them as it is to viewers. Even Ozzy, as horrible as he is at strategy, wouldn't do this if they knew Christine would switch. Jim, who is good at strategy, definitely wouldn't let them do it if they knew Christine would switch.
Last edited by Jeremy517; 10-27-11 at 11:55 AM.
10-27-11, 02:12 PM
#46
DVD Talk Special Edition
10-27-11, 02:13 PM
#47
DVD Talk Special Edition
10-27-11, 02:14 PM
#48
DVD Talk Special Edition
10-27-11, 02:36 PM
#49
DVD Talk God
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
Is Team Savaii absolutely clueless that Christine hates Upolu and will probably flip? You would think the Savaii members who have attended the Redemption Island challenge would have figured that out.
I loved Ozzy losing his mind after the Immunity challenge.
After his little Free Agent hissy fit in the last episode, I have to give Ozzy some credit for at least trying to come up with a game-changing strategy. He's definitely got balls to try something this nuts.
I loved Ozzy losing his mind after the Immunity challenge. After his little Free Agent hissy fit in the last episode, I have to give Ozzy some credit for at least trying to come up with a game-changing strategy. He's definitely got balls to try something this nuts.
10-27-11, 06:27 PM
#50
DVD Talk Hero
Re: Survivor: South Pacific -- "Trojan Horse" -- 10/26/11
I think the edits are clearly favoring someone from Ozzy's tribe to win the entire game. Ozzy's plan did not make much sense, Cochran is truly a poor competitor in challenges and it's very possible the tribe loses a challenge because of that difference.