TV's prime time seems past its prime this season


SHOOTING BLANKS: Christian Slater’s new NBC series “ My Own Worst Enemy” has struggled in its 10 p.m. slot. Back in the 1970s, the time slot was king, and "Starsky and Hutch" stars David Soul, left, and Paul Michael Glaser had a good run patroling the kingdom.

The networks' 10 p.m. slot appears weakened as people catch up with what they've recorded earlier in the evening on DVR, tune in to cable or just tune out sub-par shows.

By Scott Collins
October 27, 2008

It's 10 p.m., and the networks don't know where their viewers are.

For decades, the late-evening time slot was one of the prime spots for top network shows, from '70s cop dramas like "Starsky and Hutch" to '80s-era soaps such as "Dynasty" and right through more recent hits like "ER" and "Law & Order."

But now the bottom is falling out of ratings for that time slot -- and one of the prime culprits is the DVR.

Broadcasters have had trouble coaxing audiences back to all of their shows since the three-month writers strike ended last season, but nowhere have the troubles been more acute this fall than at 10 p.m., with disappointing ratings for such dramas as ABC's "Dirty Sexy Money" and "Life on Mars," CBS' "Without a Trace" and NBC's "Lipstick Jungle" and the new Christian Slater caper, "My Own Worst Enemy."

For a time period that used to be a drama showcase, this is quite a comedown. It's a problem of great concern to broadcasters and advertisers alike, because the 10 p.m. shows play a key role in funneling viewers to local newscasts -- where stations make most of their money -- and lucrative late-night programming. Viewers are likely to see an impact too, because programmers will think twice before putting high-cost dramas in a slot where they don't perform.

In recent years many of the big matchups, such as "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation" vs. "Grey's Anatomy," have shifted to earlier in the evening. "It's come back to 9 o'clock now," said Kelly Kahl, senior executive vice president for CBS prime time, No. 1 in the ratings. "Ten o'clock used to be the great faceoff hour."

Executives offer several theories to explain the viewer flight from 10 p.m. The most intriguing involves a device whose impact on viewing wasn't even officially measured until a couple of years ago: the DVR.

Playing catch-up

Research shows that viewers with DVRs tend to watch more TV than people without the devices and also that they use them more as the evening progresses. So, the thinking goes, by the time 10 p.m. rolls around, many DVR users are catching up on shows they recorded earlier in the evening and skipping altogether the dramas that are scheduled by the networks for that hour.

If someone is busy watching a time-shifted episode of, say, "Ugly Betty" or "The Office," he or she may not bother to watch ABC's new cop drama "Life on Mars," either live or on delay.

Each of us, after all, has only so much time to watch television (although, according to Nielsen Media Research, each viewer's time spent watching prime time has remained virtually unchanged for the last few seasons, averaging approximately 13 1/2 hours per week).

"A large chunk of viewers are delaying viewing shows on any given night until later in the evening," said Preston Beckman, the scheduling chief for Fox, which turns its air over to affiliates at 10 p.m. and does not program at the network level during that time period.

In fact, DVRs are changing assumptions about TV viewing habits in ways that executives are only beginning to understand. Beckman noted that Nielsen did not even begin counting DVR viewing until 2006. Now, 27% of Nielsen's 16,000-home national sample comprises homes with DVRs, up from 20% this time last year.

Some of the latest research seems to bear out the notion that time-shifted viewing may be clobbering 10 p.m. shows. In the majority of homes that still don't have a DVR, viewing from the 9 to 10 p.m. hour drops 10% among the key demographic of adults 18 to 49, according to Nielsen. But among DVR homes, the corresponding drop is 20%.

That doesn't necessarily mean that the people who tune out live television are instead using their DVRs. But the conclusion seems inescapable: Once your household gets a DVR, you're a lot less likely to watch a 10 p.m. show.

In an environment where fractions of ratings points can mean the difference between success and failure, DVRs have thrown a new wrinkle into the equation.

These statistics, however, need to be tempered a bit. As much as industry execs and analysts talk about it, time-shifting still makes up a tiny slice of all TV viewing. For the first two weeks of the season, for example, 94% of viewers watched shows in the 10 p.m. slot the old-fashioned way -- that is, live as they aired, according to Nielsen.

"I think it explains part of it; it doesn't explain all of it," Shari Anne Brill, a programming analyst for ad firm Carat, said, referring to DVRs' impact on viewer erosion at 10 p.m.

Cable networks have grown much more aggressive over the last few seasons about putting their strongest series at 10 p.m. This fall, viewers have been able to choose among new episodes of MTV's "The Hills," FX's "The Shield," Bravo's "Top Design" and many others.

Turmoil at 10

Against that background, the networks may not have done themselves any favors with some of the recent broadcast matchups at 10 p.m., in which two similar shows look to be cannibalizing each other's natural audience base.

On Tuesdays, NBC's "Law & Order: SVU" has proved a tough competitor for CBS' "Without a Trace." And on Thursdays, "Life on Mars" may be tripping over CBS' similarly themed "Eleventh Hour" -- although both series are looking surprisingly tame opposite NBC's "ER," now in its 15th and final season.

Another problem: The strike left networks with a dearth of fresh fare for the new season. "Life on Mars" was ABC's sole scripted newcomer this fall. Executives hoped they could use this time to relaunch some of last year's new series, which were interrupted by the strike. But many of these shows had failed to excite viewers the first time around, so there was scarce evidence to suggest this time would be different.

And that, ultimately, could be the real take-away from the 10 p.m. mystery. This time slot -- or any other, for that matter -- has no problem that can't be fixed by a big hit.

"Take a show like ‘Lipstick Jungle,’ " Brill said. "Even if DVRs didn't exist, you couldn't get me to watch that."

The Channel Island column runs every Monday in Calendar.

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Bad economy good news for low-rated TV shows

By James Hibberd James Hibberd Mon Oct 27, 5:46 am ET

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) – Sarah Connor might have the struggling economy to thank for not being terminated.

Industry observers say the recent cluster of low-rated shows granted full-season orders might have something to do with network executives watching the plunging Dow rather than their shows' falling Nielsens.

No execs would talk on the record, but the economic crisis, combined with the cost of marketing a new series, the lack of new programing inventory because of the Hollywood writers strike and the anticipated difficulty of locking down new advertiser commitments, has networks inclined to play it safe.

"Most years there would be more cancellations then there have been to date," said John Rash, senior vp/director of media negotiations at ad agency Campbell Mithun. "But the dual dynamics of schedule stability keeping ad dollars in place is combining with delayed programing development from last season's writers strike."

NBC's "Knight Rider," ABC's "Private Practice" and Fox's "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles" recently received orders for an additional nine episodes apiece. Such a move typically indicates a network's confidence in a show's performance and signals the inclination to keep a series on the air for the duration of the season.

But all three shows have posted modest ratings in recent weeks, with "Knight Rider" and "Terminator" having numbers that in previous years would have resulted in cancellation.

The most obvious reasons for the pickups are that many series this fall are doing poorly, and these shows are performing among the best of the worst. Networks are loath to exit the fall without at least one series to tout as a success. Plus, the writers strike, as Rash noted, has delayed quality midseason replacements. And with ratings declining overall because of increasing DVR penetration and audience erosion to cable networks and the Internet, the bar for success keeps being lowered.

But the added element of economic worries this fall makes picking up low-rated shows potentially more attractive, too.

An August survey by the Association of National Advertisers reported that the majority of marketers expect their advertising budgets to be reduced in the next six months.

Once a show is canceled or moved, advertisers have the option of getting their investment back. So even if a drama series is pulling a meager rating, why risk having to resell a time period?

"The way the economy is going, there might be cutbacks in regard to advertising," said Brad Adgate, vp research at Horizon Media. "And there's always frustration from advertisers when shows get pulled too quickly, but if advertisers exercise their options to get out, it would be because of the economy."

Also, the economy directly impacts networks as well as their advertisers. NBC Universal recently announced that the company would trim $500 million from its budget. Given the cost of producing and marketing a new scripted series, the company might have a greater temptation to give a show like "Knight Rider" more time to find an audience.

"From the networks' standpoint, they're loath to cancel since the cost of finding something to replace a show may not be worth it," said Shari Anne Brill, vp and director of programing at Carat. "And advertisers still prefer to be in a quality scripted series to an inexpensive reality show," she said, adding, "I'm in the camp that believes it's a mistake for an advertiser to disappear during a recession because you need the consumer awareness so sales won't grind to a halt."

So far, the networks' doubling down on the bubble shows has had mixed results. "Terminator" and "Knight Rider" hit season lows after their pickups. But last week, "Practice" showed some life, perking up 15%.

Reuters/Hollywood Reporter

It's not often that a show draws its largest audience in season six, but CBS drama "NCIS" did just that on Tuesday, as the vet seems rejuvenated this fall by being paired with hot rookie "The Mentalist." Fox still led the night among young adults thanks to its own successful drama pairing, but CBS was a competitive second alongside NBC.
Also of note on Tuesday was NBC's "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno" hitting a 10-month high thanks to an appearance by Sen. John McCain. The latenight series averaged a 4.9 household rating/12 share in Nielsen's metered-market overnights -- its best on a Tuesday since February 2007 and its highest on any night since Jan. 2 of this year when the show returned from its writers strike-dictated hiatus.

According to preliminary nationals from Nielsen, "NCIS" (4.0 rating/10 share in adults 18-49, 18.8 million viewers overall) logged its best demo score in about a year while drawing its largest overall aud to date -- easily ruling as the night's most-watched program. It led into "The Mentalist" (3.9/9 in 18-49, 16.5 million viewers overall), which matched or set series highs in various categories for a second straight telecast. "Without a Trace" closed out the night for CBS with a second-place demo finish (2.7/7 in 18-49, 12.2 million viewers overall).

At Fox, "House" had another strong showing (5.5/14 in 18-49, 12.9 million viewers overall), roughly matching its in-season high in 18-49 and standing as the night's top show in that category as well as adults 18-34 (5.3/15). Rookie drama "Fringe" fell off from there (3.9/9 in 18-49, 8.9 million viewers overall), but earned a share of the 18-49 lead in its competitive 9 o'clock hour.

NBC saw its two-hour "The Biggest Loser" hit a season-high (3.4/8 in 18-49 and 8.0 million viewers overall), edging out in younger demos its reality comeptition from ABC's "Dancing With the Stars" during the 9 o'clock hour. And the network moved to the lead in demos at 10 o'clock with "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit" (3.6/10 in 18-49, 9.4 million viewers overall), which was up a bit vs. its recent telecasts.

ABC opened with a fourth-place finish for its "Dancing With the Stars" recap show at 8 o'clock (2.1/5 in 18-49, 10.4 million viewers overall) and was much more competitive in the tight demo battle at 9 with its results edition (3.6/9 in 18-49, 16.5 million viewers overall). Closing out the night, "Eli Stone" again looked shaky in finishing third (1.9/5 in 18-49, 7.4 million viewers overall).

At CW, "90210" (1.4/4 in 18-49, 2.7 million viewers overall) was a bit low, while "Privileged" (0.9/2 in 18-49, 1.9 million viewers overall) was in line with its recent averages.

Preliminary 18-49 averages for the night: Fox, 4.7/12; CBS and NBC, 3.5/9; ABC, 2.5/6; Univision, 1.6/4; CW, 1.1/3.

In total viewers: CBS, 15.8 million; ABC, 11.4 million; Fox, 10.9 million; NBC, 8.5 million; Univision, 4.1 million; CW, 2.3 million