Red Dog

If Butch ends up winning, he would be poster boy for "flying under the radar."

Patman

Actually Alex was dumb in not recognizing that even at a final four, all he needed to do was force a tie by aligning himself up with Rob, and then let the tie-breaker decide who goes out of their little quartet. He was so blinded by thinking that just because the girls are a voting bloc of 2 that he forgot that he and Rob have the same voting bloc power to force a tie-break situation, and then it's just up to competition and not socio-political gamesmanship.

mcbg1

Red Dog

If you really do know (and I think you do for some reason), mcbg1, why are you bothering posting in here? And next time, spoiler your entire posts.

Patman

Rob can't win against any of the others left. He just doesn't have enough support on the jury to win:

Anti-Rob:

Deena - Rob screwed her over.
Alex - Rob screwed him over.
Dave - thinks Rob's a weasel.
Heidi and/or Jenna - Rob screwed them over for their cakewalk into the final 4.

Rob loses to anyone standing next to him.

Red Dog

Not if he swings back and he ends up against Jenna or Heidi in the final. I certainly don't think it is a lock that it will be a Matt/Robb/Butch/Christy Final 4. Jenna or Heidi might win the IC prior to the cutdown from 5 to 4.

mcbg1

mcbg1

mcbg1

Here's what the CBS website gives as the next episode's summary :

ON THE NEXT SURVIVOR:

Matthew makes an incredible sacrifice so that others can be given the opportunity of a lifetime. But the newfound respect Matthew enjoys makes Rob rethink his new alliance.

Still stung by Rob's betrayal of the alliance, an enraged Jenna tells the entire tribe about Rob's secret plans, revealing his strategies to everyone. Will Jenna's revelations turn the tribe against Rob?

Feeling ostracized and betrayed, Jenna and Heidi refuse to help out around camp. Will this put the final nails in their coffins?

icondude

There is no way Rob can win now unless he wins a bunch of immunity challenges. He seems to be following the footsteps of Rodger/Deena.

das Monkey

• Quoth Red Dog •<HR SIZE=1>I disagree. He had no shot to get past the Final 4 with that group unless he could win immunity in the Final 4. Jenna and Heidi were locked together and Alex (like the idiot he is) made it clear that he would vote him off at that point.<HR SIZE=1>

Keyword was "may." It "may" prove fatal. I'm all in favor of his move, but keep in mind that before, he was guaranteed Final 4 and could (however unlikely) win 2 immunity challenges. If the first challenge were mental, he could take out Alex and hope to beat the twigs during a physical challenge. Now he likely will have 3 votes vehemently against him.

As I said, I like the choice he made, but I do think there's reason for doubt in his mind on whether it was the right gamble to take.

das

Alyoshka

I think it would be very very dangerous for Robb to flip again. He's lost the support of Heidi, Jenna, Dave (for sure), probably Deena, and now Alex.

If he sticks with Butch, Christy, and Matt, he might be able to regain the support of Jenna if he makes it to the final two. He'd also get the support of Roger, Christy, and Butch.

My guess is that up against Matt, he'd be voted for by nearly everyone. If not then he'd only lose the votes of Heidi, Jenna, and Alex.

Flipping again he'd lose the votes of everyone, no question.

Red Dog

I don't think Robb has a chance of beating Matt, Christy, nor Butch one-on-one. Something remarkable would have to happen IMO for him to beat any of them. He needs to force a matchup btwn him and Jenna or Skelator - that is his only chance to win IMO.

Alyoshka

I agree, not because of anything Robb related. But watching the show typically gives hints of who is going to go on. In the editing they tend to leave people under the radar if they are going to win it. Part of the shock value to keep viewers. They've been showing way too much of Robb for him to be around much longer. I'd give him another two weeks.

Actually, I think what will happen is that Matt will get his group to vote out Robb this coming week, especially if Jenna and Heidi want to vote out Robb. The only thing that will save him is immunity, which I don't think he can get.

Jim

I think if Rob makes it to the final 2 he could win by doing what Rich Hatch did and saying he manipulated the game to get to this point, basically playing the game better than everyone else. If he's up front like that, some will respect him for that. Deena may not be upset with him because he may have voted against her just so he wasn't seen as an outsider. She was gone without his vote, so he had to look after himself at that point.

mcbg1

hmm guys your discussions are interesting but haven't you read my spoilers hehe ?

By the way the winner's editing isn't always under the radar, look at Richard Hatch or last season's Brian, they were always shown manipulating the game and we all knew they would win, at least I did.

This year's winner will be :

Red Dog

My thoughts exactly and the reason Richard won S-I was because the alternative was not a likeable figure either. That is why I think Robb would be served well if he can figure out a way to keep Jenna or Heidi in the game to the end.

das Monkey

Dude, we get it. You know who wins. Here's a freakin' trophy:



Now can we continue discussing what we think will happen without you mocking us?

das

Patman

Guys, please stop using "Robb" because that was the name of the biggest lunkhead on Survivor, and should not be used to casually!

Rico Diablo

Best episode of the season so far. I love how two episodes ago Matthew was portrayed as a machete-sharpening psycho and now he's hilarious and people want him to win. That IC was hilarious!

And I totally agree about Butch being the under-the-radar poster boy. This guy is playing it cool. It would be great if he or Matthew won. Show up all those youngsters.

Alex was an idiot talking to Rob, but thank goodness he did. Get that group out of there. And Jenna was so selfish with the food/letter I couldn't believe it. What a jag. I'd even be okay with Christy winning just to spite Jenna.

Sometimes I forget how much fun this show is.

B.A.

Good call, das.

fujishig

Loved Rob's turn this week. The other three were so confident, and the game would've been so predictable. It's amazing to me that Survivor generally defies predictability... I know that they can influence it somewhat with the challenges and editing, but still... they can't force Alex to blunder like that.

I like Matthew more and more as we see that not only is the guy refreshingly honest, but he's pretty smart too. For the first time, we see that he understands that Rob's not really all that trustworthy, whereas the editing showed us before that he was seemingly clueless. I also appreciated Rob growing a backbone and admitting his deceit... I don't know if it was out of shock or what, but I fully expected him to try to bully Matthew into doing what he wanted. And Matthew must have thrown the challenge... the last question was "Who do you think people have a crush on" and there were four guys and three girls. And he voted for himself... he pretty much gave it to Rob.

It's true that the only way Rob can win is if people put their emotions aside and admit that he's done the best job of "playing the game" Matthew's comment that they're opposites in their skills was hilarious.

I do find it curious that no one's going after the two girls, though. They are the biggest threat because they're going to stick together. And they're the only one's out of this group that I don't want to win. I can't believe what Jenna said: something to the effect that she can't believe Christy outbid her, but she kinda expected it from her anyway. What?

atlantamoi

This season is so much better than the last one. The last 3 weeks the person booted out had no clue. Rob's face after Alex got up was hilarious. Like a little kid. I want Matt to win. I don't think he's quite as clueless as I originally thought, but not by much. I thought Jenna looked horrible by thinking she had some right to a letter and not Christy. Disgusting.

Red Dog

I doubt that he threw it. Maybe he figured all 3 women would say 'Matt' while Jenna and Heidi would split on the 4 guys' preferences (2 each). I would have guessed Alex myself. Matt could not have been completely sure that Rob was going to jump over to his side. I sure would not have thrown it if I was in his shoes. If anything, Matt winning the IC would have made Rob more likely to jump over and vote off Alex. Matt had little to gain with Rob winning the IC.

Alyoshka

I don't think Richard got near the airtime as many of the others, if I can remember back. Furthermore, Colby, in the year he lost, but far had the most airtime.

As a general rule the more air time the less of a chance you have on winning. If you're spoiler is true it only works to confirm my hypothesis. Essentially, depite your possibly true spoiler, I think you're entirely incorrect.