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24 3/4/03 "10pm-11pm"

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24 3/4/03 "10pm-11pm"

Old 03-05-03, 01:20 PM
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Can that plane really make it from LA to the desert in, what was it, 40 minutes? Didn't they say 210mph? Would that of even gotten the plane out of CA in 40 minutes?
They flew the bomb to the Mojave Desert, which is in California. It's only a 2 to 2 1/2 hour drive from Los Angeles.
Old 03-05-03, 01:25 PM
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Thanks for clearing that up. Here I was thinking they took it out-of-state. My bad.........
Old 03-05-03, 01:34 PM
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There’s a lot of restrictions these days about interstate disposal of ticking nuclear bombs. Paperwork’s a bitch, and it’s easier just to dump ‘em in the desert.

Back in the day, we could ship to Nevada. But you know how those environmental groups can be.
Old 03-05-03, 01:43 PM
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Originally posted by lisadoris
countries with everything that's going down in real life.
And I don't have a problem with them being able to see the blast from Air Force One: they were headed to Los Angeles and had been in the air for awhile so they'd be facing the right direction. I'm guessing a fair number of people noticed the bright light in the sky without knowing what the hell it was.
The only thing I had a problem with (besides the math, see next post) was that the blast was visible from the STARBOARD side of Air Force One. If Palmer was flying south (Oregon-to-LA), wouldn't the blast have been AHEAD of the plane? If they were close enough to have been able to discern the desert and LA as being in two different directions, wouldn't the desert be to the LEFT of LA if approaching from the north? That would have put it off the PORT side of the airplane, at maybe 10 or 11 o'clock, *not* 2-3 o'clock as portrayed.

But I guess, as previously mentioned, time isn't exactly real time in the 24 universe, so maybe 10-11 o'clock *is* 2-3 o'clock.
Old 03-05-03, 01:57 PM
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I thought Palmer looked out to his left with the plane going south, which would be the 10-11 o'clock position (and the time period of the episode).
Old 03-05-03, 02:04 PM
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Leave me out of this. My calculator blew a fuse, and I’m trying to do this on paper.

Let’s see…at 68 miles per degree of curvature…PDX to LAX is…MACH 0.92…

Was it raining in Portland when he left?
Old 03-05-03, 02:18 PM
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For those who want to know what was in the spoiler filled prieview
Spoiler:
First of all, a black helicopter picks up Bauer.
Kim is in some grocery store, says "it's starting" as a chair flies into a wall high freezer with a glass door like they have in convenience stores.
But the main thing, a figure in the dark, just a silhoette calls Jack Bauer, he asks who is it? He says I am the only one who can prove that that recording is a fake, referring to the decoded phone conversation between Said and the 3 representatives.
And me being a big fan of the actor, I recognized his voice, it's GREGG HENRY! Yeah baby, the 7th soldier, the one that killed the rest.
Old 03-05-03, 02:19 PM
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Originally posted by Patman
I thought Palmer looked out to his left with the plane going south, which would be the 10-11 o'clock position (and the time period of the episode).
I guess I'll have to watch that part again (it's TiVoed). To me, it looked like he got up and walked to the right side of the plane. I may be wrong.
Old 03-05-03, 02:40 PM
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Math Problem

(Sorry, I had to take this down and revise it, I had one of the trig functions flip-flopped. I'm pretty sure this is right now. -KB)

The writers gave us a LOT of specific numbers related to the bomb last night -- so many that it's possible to figure out just how far Jack actually was from Ground Zero. By my figuring, it works out to about 13 miles. If the nuke was of the 10 Megaton variety (isn't that what Mike/Lynne briefed Palmer when he was making the plankton vs. cactii decision?), then Jack would've had about a 60% chance of surviving the initial blast shock wave and thermal effects.

Warning.... Lot o' math follows!

The Cessna was flying at 10,000 feet (source: Jack's radio chatter with the FAA). The Cessna's max speed is 210 kts (source: the guy at the airport who picked it out for Jack). Jack bailed at T-4 minutes (source: major plot point). George piloted the plane straight-and-level for the next 2.5 minutes, then at T-90 seconds put the plane into a 30-degree descent (source: plot). So, if the Cessna was flying at 10,000 feet at max speed, a 30-degree dive would've resulted in an altitude rate of -205 feet per second. (210 nm/hr x 6076 ft/nm / 3600 sec/hr * tan(30) = 205 fps). At that rate, the Cessna would've been at sea level in 48 seconds. Since the target location was slightly below sea level, let's be conservative and call it 50 seconds.

This means that the Cessna plowed in at T-40 seconds, so the plane flew for 3:20 from the time Jack bailed out until it hit Ground Zero. If it was flying at max speed, 2:30 at 210 KTS plus 50 seconds at 210*cos(30) KTS gives an average ground track speed of 202 KTS, and a ground track length of 11.3 NM, or 13 statute miles as the crow flies.

So, you're Jack, and you're standing 13 miles from Ground Zero for a 10 MT ground-burst device. According to the NATO HANDBOOK ON THE MEDICAL ASPECTS OF NBC DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS AMedP-6(B), Chapter 3, EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS, a 10 MT ground-burst would yield a 50% casualty rate due to blast effects at a range of 7,900 m, and a 50% casualty rate due to thermal radiation at 11,500 m. Jack is 13 miles away, or approx 21,000 m. A back-of-the-envelope calculation for mortality at this range tell us that he would have roughly an 84% chance of surviving the blast (1 - 0.5^(21.0/7.9) = 0.842) and a 72% chance of surviving the heat wave (1 - 0.5^(21.0/11.5) = 0.718). His chance of surviving *both* is just over 60% (0.842*0.718= 0.604), or slightly better than 3:2 odds.

Curiously enough, if he doesn't get slicked due to blast and heat, he'll probably be okay. The only remaining bomb-related risks are due to initial and residual radiation. The NATO handbook states, ""With larger weapons, above 50 Kt, blast and thermal effects are so much greater in importance that prompt radiation effects can be ignored.", and residual radiation (=fallout) is an issue only if he hangs around the scene and/or wanders downwind. Since CTU has already dispatched a chopper to pick him up, he's unlikely to do either.

Of course, I fully expect the CTU chopper to pick him up within the first 15 minutes of the next episode -- can't have the hero stuck in the desert away from the story line for much longer than that. Recall, Jack took off in the Cessna with more than 30 minutes left on the clock. This means that he was flying for approx 25 minutes before he bailed out. Again assuming the Cessna was firewalled at 210 kts, he would be 87.5 NM from the airport. If the chopper gets to him within 15 mins, it would have to fly at 350 kts to cover that much ground in that little time. (True, the chopper is likely coming from a different location than the airport Jack left from, but remember that Jack also had a head start. Any geographic savings CTU would have had would be lost due to their late start.) If CTU's "uberchoppers" can zip along at 350 kts, why on earth didn't they give one to Jack from jump instead of forcing him to take a Cessna. Bottom line, the CTU chopper heading out to collect Jack should take at least 30 minutes to get to him. I don't expect that the writers will pay attention to this fact, but that's what the numbers say.
Old 03-05-03, 02:50 PM
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..mommy?

..my head hurts..

Old 03-05-03, 02:53 PM
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nerd.

D
Old 03-05-03, 02:58 PM
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kenbuzz - you have WAY too much time on your hands. Go back and figure out which side of the plane Palmer was on - a shorter, simpler argument to settle with yourself.
Old 03-05-03, 03:08 PM
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Now I remember why i was never a math major. Glad to see you figured that out though.
Old 03-05-03, 03:12 PM
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You forgot a coupla things:

The pilot made a left-banking turn just as the dive commenced (source: eyeballs)

You didn't factor in the acceleration during the dive (source: Newton)

Soooo, carry the 2… that puts the impact/blast ¾ mile closer than your estimate, give or take a few feet.

Was the speed given in knots, or mph? I don’t remember…





It doesn't matter which side of the plane Palmer was sitting on. The seat was facing the other way.
Old 03-05-03, 03:47 PM
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Re: Math Problem

Originally posted by kenbuzz
If the nuke was of the 10 Megaton variety (isn't that what Mike/Lynne briefed Palmer when he was making the plankton vs. cactii decision?), then Jack would've had about a 60% chance of surviving the initial blast shock wave and thermal effects.
Was it that big? I could swear they said it was in the kiloton range?
Old 03-05-03, 04:13 PM
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BTW, there's no such thing as an "undifusable" bomb - especially a nuclear one.
Old 03-05-03, 04:15 PM
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Which way is the wind blowing? Maybe if jack had huge gusts of wind, and some wind of his own (the bean burrito the night before is coming back) he could be much farther away?

Old 03-05-03, 04:17 PM
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Originally posted by slop101
BTW, there's no such thing as an "undifusable" bomb - especially a nuclear one.
that's unpossible!
Old 03-05-03, 04:43 PM
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For me this was one of the best episodes ever. Great all around.
But still--peeking out to watch the nuclear blast from behind a rock? Of course, Jack may still fall ill, but I highly doubt there'd be no physical side of effects from being THAT close to a nuclear bomb.
Best line of the night--
Tony: "We American what?"
Old 03-05-03, 04:46 PM
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Originally posted by breaux124
...and some wind of his own (the bean burrito the night before is coming back) he could be much farter away?


Back to reality.
Originally posted by adamblast
The President doesn't even ask what three countries? Who talks like that anyway?
I agreed momentarily with that. But I think the focus of the episode was the bomb, and to throw in countries’ names (real or made up) would detract from that focus.

I’m also interested in how the next episode is going to handle the huge PR problem that Palmer now faces. Here he is, flying around, without any statement to the public. (Again, I think if anything was done during this ep, it would detract. But…) It would be fitting for the Prez to issue a statement, even if it’s from AF1, about the situation. Of course, this isn’t “West Wing,” but still...
Old 03-05-03, 04:54 PM
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Originally posted by Wizdar


Back to reality.
Oh there goes gravity, he chokes.... (sorry)
Old 03-05-03, 05:02 PM
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Originally posted by Rogue588
Glad they let George go out like that.
Agreed. I said last week that I'd be miffed if they brought him back because I actually liked the idea of him just walking off into the night. I take it back. They made it work in true 24 fashion.
Old 03-05-03, 05:09 PM
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On the issue of Jack not being able to hear Mason's lung-hacking in the back of the plane for 15 minutes, it is difficult to hear anything outside of the headphones on those small-passenger Cessnas.

But by the same token, that doesn't account for how Jack heard him rustling.
Old 03-05-03, 05:35 PM
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• Quoth Rypro 525 •<HR SIZE=1>Oh there goes gravity, he chokes.... (sorry) <HR SIZE=1>


[Anal] Oh, there goes gravity, oh, there goes Rabbit, he choked ... [/Anal]

das
Old 03-05-03, 08:45 PM
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Ok, I carefully avoided reading this thread before posting.

I missed last night's episode, and will not be home for the normal FX encores on Monday night. Recording is not an option for me, unfortunately (vcr on the fritz, no tivo).

My understanding is that there is a hiatus for a couple weeks; does anyone know what the encore schedule will be for this ep?

Thanks!

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