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View Poll Results: Who would you vote for to be inducted into the HOF in 2019?
Lance Berkman
2.50%
Barry Bonds
65.00%
Roger Clemens
60.00%
Roy Halladay
52.50%
Todd Helton
7.50%
Andruw Jones
10.00%
Jeff Kent
15.00%
Edgar Martinez
60.00%
Fred McGriff
30.00%
Mike Mussina
42.50%
Roy Oswalt
0
0%
Andy Pettitte
7.50%
Juan Pierre
2.50%
Manny Ramirez
25.00%
Mariano Rivera
87.50%
Scott Rolen
5.00%
Curt Schilling
35.00%
Gary Sheffield
5.00%
Sammy Sosa
20.00%
Miguel Tejada
2.50%
Omar Vizquel
10.00%
Billy Wagner
10.00%
Larry Walker
15.00%
Michael Young
0
0%
Other (Include in your post)
2.50%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 40. You may not vote on this poll

The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Old 11-29-18, 12:47 PM
  #26  
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

I guess Ortiz will be the first known PED user to make it into the HoF.
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Old 11-29-18, 01:01 PM
  #27  
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Jeter is a lock, obv. Ortiz seems likely. Beltran has a good case. The opinion of one in this forum notwithstanding, Beltre is also a lock. The rest are all probably nos.
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Old 11-29-18, 02:25 PM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Originally Posted by WCChiCubsFan View Post
I guess Ortiz will be the first known PED user to make it into the HoF.
There are many that make that assumption but I doubt it, certainly not first ballot. Still think Bonds/Clemens will be the first.
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Old 11-29-18, 02:38 PM
  #29  
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Originally Posted by BrewCrew View Post
There are many that make that assumption but I doubt it, certainly not first ballot. Still think Bonds/Clemens will be the first.
Stark said that historically, the key will be if Bonds and Clemens can break 60% this year, and he expects them to do it with a less crowded ballot. The only one of 24 players who hit 60% in their first seven years who didn't eventually make the HOF is Mussina, who can still has a chance.
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Old 11-29-18, 03:40 PM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Originally Posted by davidh777 View Post
Stark said that historically, the key will be if Bonds and Clemens can break 60% this year, and he expects them to do it with a less crowded ballot. The only one of 24 players who hit 60% in their first seven years who didn't eventually make the HOF is Mussina, who can still has a chance.
Bonds and Clemens are special cases that I don't think historical voting patterns really matter. There is a certain percentage of the electorate that are never voting for either player. The question is if that percentage is over 25% or not.
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Old 11-29-18, 03:41 PM
  #31  
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Originally Posted by LurkerDan View Post
so far 4 people have not voted for Rivera. And yet none have explained why.

Baseball Reference all time leaders in ERA, minimum 1000 IPs: https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...g_career.shtml
Baseball Reference all time leaders in ERA+, minimum 1000 IPs: https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...s_career.shtml
Same for WHIP: https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...p_career.shtml

Forget about the fact that he's a closer, he pitched over 1200 IPs, the equivalent of 6 full seasons, and has stats that would get him in if he had pitched those 6 seasons and then croaked.
It's easy to construct a loaded 10 person ballot without Mariano. If you go strictly by regular War, he's a marginal HOFer. I think most assume he'll sail in anyway, so one may want to vote for a lesser player to keep them on the ballot for next year.
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Old 11-29-18, 04:12 PM
  #32  
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Originally Posted by davidh777 View Post
Stark said that historically, the key will be if Bonds and Clemens can break 60% this year, and he expects them to do it with a less crowded ballot. The only one of 24 players who hit 60% in their first seven years who didn't eventually make the HOF is Mussina, who can still has a chance.
Originally Posted by PhantomStranger View Post
Bonds and Clemens are special cases that I don't think historical voting patterns really matter. There is a certain percentage of the electorate that are never voting for either player. The question is if that percentage is over 25% or not.
Stark off-handedly mentions that Bonds/Clemens are special cases that might not follow the same normal voting history, but otherwise ignores that fact. Which is ridonkulous. If normal voting patterns were followed, they both would have been in years ago. Normally, when a player reaches 50-60%, people are starting to dig deeper into their stats, to analyze how great they truly were, and momentum builds for a candidate who was not initially a slam dunk. That's what will probably get Edgar and Moose in.

That trend is absolutely not applicable to Bonds/Clemens. They are obviously Hall worthy by stats alone; they are two of the absolute greatest in history. And most everyone recognizes that they would be Hall worthy even if they never took PEDs. However, because of their brazen use of PEDs (and the fact that they were both assholes doesn't help), many voters will never vote for them. Sure, a writer may reconsider their PED stance, which is probably one reason the vote totals go up each year. But nobody is digging deeper into their stats, nobody needs convincing about whether they were good enough. We all know what they are about. The historical norms don't apply to them now because the historical norms have never applied to them.

Stark's article was really lazy on that.
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Old 11-29-18, 04:16 PM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Originally Posted by PhantomStranger View Post
Bonds and Clemens are special cases that I don't think historical voting patterns really matter. There is a certain percentage of the electorate that are never voting for either player. The question is if that percentage is over 25% or not.
They are definitely special cases, which I was going to mention but forgot.
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Old 11-29-18, 04:18 PM
  #34  
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Originally Posted by LurkerDan View Post
Sure, a writer may reconsider their PED stance, which is probably one reason the vote totals go up each year. But nobody is digging deeper into their stats, nobody needs convincing about whether they were good enough. We all know what they are about. The historical norms don't apply to them now because the historical norms have never applied to them.

Stark's article was really lazy on that.
I think the softening of the PED stance is the key. That and ballot room would be the only reasons Bonds' and Clemens' numbers would change. If they get to their final year on the ballot, it'd be interesting to see if that would have an effect, like voters would feel they've made their point and punished them enough, and then vote for them.
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Old 11-29-18, 04:32 PM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

I just think the double standard is interesting. We know that Bonds, Clemens and Ortiz all used at one point in their careers but Ortiz seems to be getting a big pass while the other two remain villains.
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Old 11-29-18, 05:23 PM
  #36  
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Originally Posted by davidh777 View Post
I think the softening of the PED stance is the key. That and ballot room would be the only reasons Bonds' and Clemens' numbers would change. If they get to their final year on the ballot, it'd be interesting to see if that would have an effect, like voters would feel they've made their point and punished them enough, and then vote for them.
Sure, both of those are valid discussion points. Stark's article annoyed me because he treated their candidacies like they are similar to past players, and they are not. Nobody knows what will happen to those two, this year or their last year on the ballot. But we do know that looking to past candidates of "normal" players isn't going to provide the answers, yet Stark acted like it does (or might).
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Old 11-29-18, 05:41 PM
  #37  
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

2018 Ballot Tracker

Only eight ballots listed so far, but one thing of note is that Edgar Martinez has already picked up three votes that he didn't have last year. Rivera is on all eight ballots.

For anyone who hasn't seen this in previous years, the spreadsheet is updated as more and more voters make their ballots known. Last year, they knew 75% of ballots when all was said and done.
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Old 11-29-18, 09:09 PM
  #38  
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Voting
Barry "Goat" Bonds
Clemens
Halladay-2 Time Cy Young Winner,8 time all star.Should be on every ballot
Manny
Schilling-Garbage Human but HOF on the field
Sammy-Because being a small white boy in a poor Dominican Rep town he must have dealt with a lot of bullying but he still found a way to get 500 HR's
E Martinez-The Best DH ever.
M Rivera-Goat Closer.
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Old 11-30-18, 12:53 PM
  #39  
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Originally Posted by WCChiCubsFan View Post
I just think the double standard is interesting. We know that Bonds, Clemens and Ortiz all used at one point in their careers but Ortiz seems to be getting a big pass while the other two remain villains.
To be fair to David Ortiz, he played for years (most of his career, actually) under strict PED testing - something neither Bonds nor Clemens faced. That is a big difference in my mind. If he did test positive in the secret testing back in 2003, he wasn't using them by 2006 or he would have failed the new standards.

So we can be more sure that Ortiz had his peak years unaided by PEDs. Almost everyone believes that Bonds and Clemens in their 30s were using for their big years.
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Old 11-30-18, 02:18 PM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Originally Posted by LurkerDan View Post
Goat3001, I agree with most of your post, we shouldn't treat DHs the same as all other players. That said, we also shouldn't ban them from the Hall.
Just to reiterate, I did say that I believe both Martinez and Ortiz are HOFers but just think a career DH needs to be graded on a big curve.

How many guys are full time DH's in the way Edgar and Ortiz were? The article also mentions Frank Thomas who DHed in 54% of his games. Anyone else over 50%? I can't think of anyone off the top of my head who would fit the bill.

Originally Posted by PhantomStranger View Post
To be fair to David Ortiz, he played for years (most of his career, actually) under strict PED testing - something neither Bonds nor Clemens faced. That is a big difference in my mind. If he did test positive in the secret testing back in 2003, he wasn't using them by 2006 or he would have failed the new standards.

So we can be more sure that Ortiz had his peak years unaided by PEDs. Almost everyone believes that Bonds and Clemens in their 30s were using for their big years.
It's interesting that A-Rod and Ortiz will be up for a vote at the same time. Considering numbers alone, A-Rod's credentials are far more HOF worthy. I'm sure that A-Rod will be left out of the hall for few years if not all together but I think Ortiz will make it no later than his second or third go around.
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Old 11-30-18, 03:24 PM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Originally Posted by Goat3001 View Post
Just to reiterate, I did say that I believe both Martinez and Ortiz are HOFers but just think a career DH needs to be graded on a big curve.

How many guys are full time DH's in the way Edgar and Ortiz were? The article also mentions Frank Thomas who DHed in 54% of his games. Anyone else over 50%? I can't think of anyone off the top of my head who would fit the bill.
Harold Baines played more games as DH than anyone, so he'd fit the bill. He got very little HoF love though, never getting more than 6.1% of the votes.
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Old 12-05-18, 01:16 PM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Baines was 1 full healthy season of hitting .250 from magically being a HOF since it's a benchmark stat driven thing with many voters
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Old 12-05-18, 01:33 PM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Article in the Athletic said that all of the players on the 2016 Today's Era HOF ballot (including Baines) were held over for 2018, except Joe Carter replaced Mark McGwire (Lee Smith became eligible and was added). The conclusion was that because McGwire has much better stats than all the other candidates including Carter, and his steroid status hadn't changed since 2016, the committee must've decided that he had the lowest shot at getting elected and possibly received no votes at all in 2016. Who knows for sure, but I thought it was an interesting argument. It also thinks that that doesn't bode well for other known steroid users, but that would seem to apply more to these adjunct committees than the main vote, which Bonds and Clemens still have a chance for.
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Old 12-05-18, 02:07 PM
  #44  
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
Todd Helton
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Mariano Rivera
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Old 12-05-18, 02:28 PM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

as usual, DVDTalk is a harsh hall of fame voting mistress.

Only Rivera would make it if we were actually voting.
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Old 12-06-18, 03:43 PM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Poor Michael Young. Should have given him a pity vote for making me happy for so many years and closely resembling my dad.

I went:
Bonds
Clemens
Halladay
Mussina
Rivera
Ramirez

Sosa and Schilling would have gotten votes if they hadn't been caught or been assholes. That gets a ding from me and borderline yeses turn to borderline nos.
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Old 12-06-18, 04:22 PM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

I went for

Bonds
Clemens
Halliday
Rivera
Schilling

I'm sure Martinez will get in after hitting 70% last ballot, but I can't totally get behind him since I don't recall ever thinking "There's a Hall of Famer" when he was playing. Just seemed like a really good hitter. On the other hand, Schilling really struck fear in my heart. He felt like an absolute HoF type pitcher to me, and rose up on the biggest of stages.
Mussina seems like a small step below that. Hall of Really Good. Put Jeff Kent in there as well.
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Old 12-10-18, 08:31 AM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

SI: Harold Baines's Stunning Hall of Fame Election Is an Embarrassment
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Old 12-10-18, 08:33 AM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

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Old 12-10-18, 08:49 AM
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Re: The 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Yes, the election of Baines is baffling. I'll put it this way: When going through baseball cards as a young boy, I never once separated cards of Baines from the commons.
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