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Fantasy Football Talk 2018

Old 09-03-18, 02:31 PM
  #51  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

I was bored so I signed up for an auction draft on Yahoo and some guy who held on to his money for too long wound up paying $28 ($200 budget) for the Jags defense
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Old 09-03-18, 02:46 PM
  #52  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

My strategy for mock drafting at #6 has been pretty much the same as at #5: See how bad my RBs are if I take Antonio Brown.

My last draft is tomorrow. If I do get Brown, I probably have to go RB for at least my next two spots, maybe three. When I went WR first at #10, I didn't go aggressive enough at RB then losing McKinnon really exposed me.
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Old 09-04-18, 04:00 AM
  #53  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

No Cowboys or Raiders on my teams so I hope that means more wins.

Is Will Fuller a bargain at his ADP?
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Old 09-04-18, 02:07 PM
  #54  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

I had a couple of drafts over the holiday weekend. The first was my long-running ESPN "friends and family" 10 teamer ... default scoring (non-PPR) and lineup (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, R/W/T flex, K, TD, 6 bench). Up to two keepers, at the cost of the first two rounds of the draft.

I co-manager this team with a friend I used to work with. We're on different sides of the country now, but fantasy football is a nice way to keep in contact. Since he was the original sole manager, I like to leave final decisions to him (just offering up my suggestions). So things don't always go my way, but that's ok for a "fun" free casual league.

Aside from our two great keepers, I don't really love how things turned out. With the keepers and just being a 10-team league, I feel like the team should look like a powerhouse ... but it doesn't IMO. I think work will have to be done for a return trip to the finals (which we've made 3 years in a row, with a championship 2 years ago). This is the team:

QB: Luck, Ryan
RB: David Johnson, Zeke Elliot, Lamar Miller, Peyton Barber, Matt Breida
WR: Tyreek Hill, Marvin Jones, Corey Davis, Emm. Sanders, Hurns
TE: Kelce
K: Tucker
DST: Steelers (but will likely stream during the season)

I fear we may regret passing on Ingram II to take Miller for the 5th round pick. And considering upside TEs like Trey Burton and Jack Doyle weren't even drafted, I would like the team more if we used that spot to take a tier 3 WR or RB (like Diggs or R Freeman). Then again, it's easy to second guess in retrospect.

The next day I signed up for another ESPN draft with the same settings (just no keepers). This time going solo and trying to get different players and do things I wished I did in the first draft. And I got this:

QB: Brees
RB: Gurley, McCaffrey, Ingram II, Miller, Jamaal Williams, Mack
WR: JuJu, Goodwin, Robbie Anderson, Agholor, Golladay, John Brown
TE: Gronk
K: Lutz
DST: Panthers

I was happy about how this turned out ... but of course, watch this team suck We targeted Brees in the first draft but he got sniped right before we were going to take him. I got Ingram like I wanted, and Miller even fell to the next pick (to play flex for Ingram's suspension and covering RB byes). Gronk was the only TE I was willing to pay a 3rd round pick for, so I was fine going for the huge upside (if he stays healthy). All of that means I don't have any elite WRs, but I tried to compensate by picking mid/late round guys who I thought had WR1 upside (I just need half of them to pan out to be good at WR).
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Old 09-04-18, 02:11 PM
  #55  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

Lamar Miller is interesting this year. I feel like half the "pros" hate him and have him way down the board and the other half think he's a solid RB2. His ADP variance is pretty wide. You usually see that with young players like Kerryon Johnson where it's mainly potential but a questionable role, but not necessarily "boring" picks like him.

I'm on the Lamar Miller bandwagon this season but I'm beginning to have my doubts.
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Old 09-04-18, 02:21 PM
  #56  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

Originally Posted by brainee View Post
We targeted Brees in the first draft but he got sniped right before we were going to take him.
Brees is one of the most noticeable differences I've seen in switching my mocks from Yahoo to ESPN (because of my leagues). ESPN has him rated a lot lower so he's lasting a lot longer. I even took him as my backup once. He definitely disappointed me last year, but I'd be fine taking him again this year.

Originally Posted by fujishig View Post
Lamar Miller is interesting this year. I feel like half the "pros" hate him and have him way down the board and the other half think he's a solid RB2. His ADP variance is pretty wide. You usually see that with young players like Kerryon Johnson where it's mainly potential but a questionable role, but not necessarily "boring" picks like him.

I'm on the Lamar Miller bandwagon this season but I'm beginning to have my doubts.
He's a really interesting case. Not sexy, but I could easily see him ending up at 1000/7. I'm not avoiding him.

Devonta Freeman is the one I have real concerns about, and he's often sitting there after the first wave of backs is gone and I'm picking at #19 or 20. But it seems like a reach to take Mixon ahead of him if I need a back.

Originally Posted by JeffTheAlpaca View Post
Is Will Fuller a bargain at his ADP?
He's also really hard to judge because he put up such crazy numbers in very few games. I rode him for a while last year then dropped him. He could be great, but he could also be nothing.
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Old 09-04-18, 02:50 PM
  #57  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

Originally Posted by fujishig View Post
Lamar Miller is interesting this year. I feel like half the "pros" hate him and have him way down the board and the other half think he's a solid RB2. His ADP variance is pretty wide. You usually see that with young players like Kerryon Johnson where it's mainly potential but a questionable role, but not necessarily "boring" picks like him.

I'm on the Lamar Miller bandwagon this season but I'm beginning to have my doubts.
Originally Posted by davidh777 View Post
He's a really interesting case. Not sexy, but I could easily see him ending up at 1000/7. I'm not avoiding him.
I know a big concern about Miller was about D'Onta Foreman overtaking him on the depth chart. But Foreman has had major injury issues, and Miller's role seems more secure.

Even though Miller hasn't met expectations when he took over the starter role when moving from Miami to Houston, he finished around RB15 both seasons for the Texans. Just like with real teams, not everyone on your fantasy team has to be a superstar. There's something to be said for unsexy but steady. At least that's what I try to tell the women!

Originally Posted by davidh777 View Post
Devonta Freeman is the one I have real concerns about, and he's often sitting there after the first wave of backs is gone and I'm picking at #19 or 20. But it seems like a reach to take Mixon ahead of him if I need a back.
Yeah, at his ADP I don't think I was ever getting Mixon no matter how many leagues I'm in. I owned him in a couple of leagues last year, and he sucked (in both stats and the "eye test" when I could see play). His ADP just assumes he'll be great. Maybe he will be great but at that spot I'd rather pick a RB who has actually shown he can be great (like D Freeman).

In my drafts, I've been torn between the late round RBs who are technically starters for their teams. Guys like Jamaal Williams, Barber, K Johnson, Carson (or Penny), Mack. I don't feel strongly about any of them, but you can see I tried to one or two of them on my teams. A crap shoot, but these are the kind of players I like loading up my bench with.

Alf Morris went in the 50-60 range in both drafts, which was too rich for my blood (especially when the younger, more dynamic Breida lasted until the late rounds).
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Old 09-04-18, 03:59 PM
  #58  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

Originally Posted by brainee View Post
Yeah, at his ADP I don't think I was ever getting Mixon no matter how many leagues I'm in. I owned him in a couple of leagues last year, and he sucked (in both stats and the "eye test" when I could see play). His ADP just assumes he'll be great. Maybe he will be great but at that spot I'd rather pick a RB who has actually shown he can be great (like D Freeman).
Expecting Mixon to be worth his ADP is a leap of faith for sure. I've taken him and am hopeful, but wary.

Originally Posted by brainee View Post
In my drafts, I've been torn between the late round RBs who are technically starters for their teams. Guys like Jamaal Williams, Barber, K Johnson, Carson (or Penny), Mack. I don't feel strongly about any of them, but you can see I tried to one or two of them on my teams. A crap shoot, but these are the kind of players I like loading up my bench with.
Those guys are just not exciting, but they might turn out to be usable--the proverbial throwing mud against the wall. I've actually taken Penny in both of my drafts so far on the expectation that he's more talented and Carson got hurt last year, but we'll see. My final draft is full of homer locals so I don't expect to get Penny again.

Originally Posted by brainee View Post
Alf Morris went in the 50-60 range in both drafts, which was too rich for my blood (especially when the younger, more dynamic Breida lasted until the late rounds).
I prefer Morris but agree that he might not be worth the current price. I don't think Breida can handle any kind of significant workload, but my guess is that neither guy will be usable.

Originally Posted by brainee View Post
There's something to be said for unsexy but steady. At least that's what I try to tell the women!
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Old 09-04-18, 06:03 PM
  #59  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

I had a brain fart and drafted Olsen and Jimmy Graham and everybody else is asleep in the league so probably none of them are trade bait.
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Old 09-04-18, 11:27 PM
  #60  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

My friends (and highest stakes) league:

1.6 Antonio Brown, WR
2.7 Devonta Freeman, RB
3.6 Kenyan Drake, RB
4.7 Amari Cooper, WR
5.6 Mark Ingram, RB
6.7 Emmanuel Sanders, WR
7.6 Deshaun Watson, QB
8.7 Rashaad Penny, RB
9.6 Trey Burton, TE
10.7 Keelan Cole, WR
11.6 Chris Godwin, WR
12.7 Phillip Rivers, QB
13.6 Latavius Murray, RB
14.7 Saints D/ST
15.6 Corey Clement, RB
16.7 Jake Elliott, K

All in all, I'm satisfied. As usual, I had to decide whether to take Brown at sixth overall after OBJ sneaked into #3, and I took Devonta Freeman again, but I hope that Drake will be solid. Cooper is my big swing after the safety of Brown. Most of my mocks wound up with Wentz, but at that spot Watson was still sitting there. I took Penny in all three of my drafts and at that spot hated to pass up Burton (or Doyle), but then both TEs ended up still there at my next pick. Rivers will hopefully give me stability to back up Watson, and I took shots at Latavius Murray and Corey Clement (Clement after passing on him then seeing him still there, like Burton).

Penny is pretty much a homer pick, but I have high hopes that he can pay dividends as the season goes along, and he became easier to pick after his draft stock sunk below Carson in the last few weeks. B5Erik would be pleased.

My other two drafts (both DVD Talk):

1.5 Antonio Brown
2.8 Devonta Freeman
3.5 Joe Mixon
4.8 Golden Tate
5.5 Chris Hogan
6.8 Carlos Hyde
7.5 Jimmy Garropolo
8.8 Rashaad Penny
9.5 George Kittle
10.8 Sony Michel
11.5 Alex Smith
12.8 Kenny Golladay
13.5 Saints D
14.8 Rishard Matthews
15.5 Harrison Butker

1.10 OBJ
2.3 Dalvin Cook
3.10 Jerick McKinnon
4.3 Golden Tate
5.10 Dion Lewis
6.3 Carson Wentz
7.10 Trey Burton
8.3 Michael Crabtree
9.10 Rashaad Penny
10.3 Patrick Mahomes
11.10 Jordy Nelson
12.3 Houston D
13.10 DJ Moore
14.3 Kwon Alexander (IDP) - autodraft
15.10 Myles Jack (IDP) - autodraft
16.3 Robbie Gould - autodraft

Last edited by davidh777; 09-04-18 at 11:45 PM.
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Old 09-05-18, 12:16 AM
  #61  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

Within minutes after our draft ended the guy with the number three pick traded what was basically his second and third picks for Ezekiel Elliot and OBJ. I guess I have more time to focus on the other leagues now, that one is toast.
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Old 09-05-18, 12:28 AM
  #62  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

In tonight's draft, someone took McKinnon with the second pick of the fourth round. Maybe he had set a draft order or something. He was making his own picks in the later rounds.
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Old 09-05-18, 11:22 AM
  #63  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

I had the #11 pick in my TD-only home league. Was figuring I'd be looking at RB scraps that close to the turn and was thinking of picking two WRs (Brown/OBJ), but then I forgot that these guys put waay too much emphasis in drafting QBs. The picks leading up to mine were:

1 Todd Gurley II, LAR RB (chalk)
2 Ezekiel Elliott, Dal RB (chalk)
3 Le'Veon Bell, Pit RB (chalk)
4 Alvin Kamara, NO RB (chalk?)
5 David Johnson, Ari RB (chalk)
6 Aaron Rodgers, GB QB (wtf?)
7 Saquon Barkley, NYG RB (chalk?)
8 DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR (wtf?)
9 Kareem Hunt, KC RB (chalk?)
10 Deshaun Watson, Hou QB (wtf?)

So I took Fournette. The guy on the turn took the Brown/OBJ WRs, so I was happy to take Melvin Gordon at 2.2. My full draft went...

1.11 (11) Leonard Fournette, Jax RB
2.02 (14) Melvin Gordon, LAC RB
3.11 (35) Alex Collins, Bal RB
4.02 (38) Tyreek Hill, KC WR
5.11 (59) Amari Cooper, Oak WR
6.02 (62) Drew Brees, NO QB
7.11 (83) Isaiah Crowell, NYJ RB
8.02 (86) Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR
9.11 (107) Marquise Goodwin, SF WR
10.02 (110) Justin Tucker, Bal K
11.11 (131) Alex Smith, Wsh QB
12.02 (134) David Njoku, Cle TE

After taking Brees in 6 I started looking for a QB2 that would give me a favorable QBBC pairing. The top two on my list were Mahomes and Smith. Both were available when my 9/10 picks came around, and the guy in the 12 slot still needed QB, K, RB and WR. So I opted to take the best RB/WR (Goodwin) in 9, and after he took RB/WR, I decided to take K Tucker then, figuring that one of Mahomes/Smith would make it through to me at the bottom of 11. Everybody had their QBs already, but K's were due. I was right. Only 1 QB went (Mahomes at 11.3) while 7 Ks did. I took Smith in 11 (the 12 guy took Manning and Gano) and I took the "best" TE on my board whose bye didn't match my kicker. Frankly, by the time I got to my 9th pick I really didn't care who my TE was.

BTW, Smith should be a good QBBC fit as his schedule dovetails very nicely with Brees, giving me the following opponents:

TBB-CLE-GBP-NYG-WAS-CAR-DAL-NYG-ATL-TBB-HOU-DAL-DAL-NYG-CAR-TEN-CAR
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Old 09-05-18, 11:32 AM
  #64  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

Originally Posted by fujishig View Post
Within minutes after our draft ended the guy with the number three pick traded what was basically his second and third picks for Ezekiel Elliot and OBJ. I guess I have more time to focus on the other leagues now, that one is toast.
I don’t get it. If the team with Zeke and OBJ valued them less than guys taken later in the draft, why did they pick them in the first place?

I sympathize about stupid stuff that sucks your enthusiasm for a league right at the start. A couple of years ago, I was in a league where a few days after the draft some idiot outright drops his second and third round picks. Since I didn’t even think to check the waiver wires before the season started, I missed out on putting a claim on them and the same team picked up both. Then that team steamrolls the league
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Old 09-05-18, 11:36 AM
  #65  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

^Njoku fell pretty far in my draft last night as well, and Kittle didn't get drafted at all. Kinda funny how stock rises and falls quickly.

I just remembered to take Ingram and Wentz out of my lineups! I guess I'm ready for the season to start!
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Old 09-05-18, 11:39 AM
  #66  
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Originally Posted by brainee View Post
I donít get it. If the team with Zeke and OBJ valued them less than guys taken later in the draft, why did they pick them in the first place?

I sympathize about stupid stuff that sucks your enthusiasm for a league right at the start. A couple of years ago, I was in a league where a few days after the draft some idiot outright drops his second and third round picks. Since I didnít even think to check the waiver wires before the season started, I missed out on putting a claim on them and the same team picked up both. Then that team steamrolls the league
They autodrafted. And the autodraft was really, really bad. But the guy that traded Zeke away only has two other running backs, and the great autodraft took five tight ends (the other guy has three), so he's screwed either way. We don't have to start any tight ends, they're grouped with the wide receivers. But it completely destroys competitive balance in the league.
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Old 09-05-18, 12:10 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

Originally Posted by kenbuzz View Post
My full draft went...

1.11 (11) Leonard Fournette, Jax RB
2.02 (14) Melvin Gordon, LAC RB
3.11 (35) Alex Collins, Bal RB
4.02 (38) Tyreek Hill, KC WR
5.11 (59) Amari Cooper, Oak WR
6.02 (62) Drew Brees, NO QB
7.11 (83) Isaiah Crowell, NYJ RB
8.02 (86) Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR
9.11 (107) Marquise Goodwin, SF WR
10.02 (110) Justin Tucker, Bal K
11.11 (131) Alex Smith, Wsh QB
12.02 (134) David Njoku, Cle TE
Holy crap, I'd be fine with that in a 10 team league let alone a 14-teamer. Though I don't know how TD-only changes the rankings.

I do know that I'll never play a TD-only league. It drives me crazy enough to have one of guys come up just short of a TD only for my opponent to vulture it. But if I didn't get any points at all out of it ... I know I'd be breaking things for sure.
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Old 09-05-18, 04:02 PM
  #68  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

this Bell thing puts me in such a fucking bind in one of my leagues. i knew i shouldn't have drafted him.
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Old 09-05-18, 04:06 PM
  #69  
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I have him in both of my leagues. Totally fucked.
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Old 09-05-18, 04:26 PM
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Now reports are he may sit out longer than a week. I had #2 pick and I wavered on him and DJ. I should've been a homer and taken DJ. Fuck.
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Old 09-05-18, 04:28 PM
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I think he's going to sit out at least through September. Maybe through the bye week - 7.
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Old 09-05-18, 04:50 PM
  #72  
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Wow, that would really suck if he missed multiple games. A few years ago when he was suspended, he still put up enough points to rank among the top backs at the end of the year, but everyone who took him passed up guys who will likely play all year. If I'd had the top pick last night, I would've gone Gurley, but wouldn't have hesitated from taking Bell if I'd been at 2.
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Old 09-06-18, 06:45 AM
  #73  
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2018

LeSean McCoy @ Ravens or Jordan Howard @ GB

I think Howard might not get the ball if they are losing by 30 points.
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Old 09-06-18, 11:10 AM
  #74  
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I'd ride Shady while you can, though the matchup isn't great. Nice choice between two top-15-ish guys!

My season is off to a good start when I'm already looking at starting two uninspiring backup QBs (Mahomes instead of Wentz, Alex Smith @AZ instead of Garropolo @MIN). My most reliable backup (Rivers) is on my third team, where I'm starting Deshaun Watson.
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Old 09-06-18, 11:16 AM
  #75  
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Stafford vs. NYJ or
Rivers vs. KC

I'm leaning Stafford, but I think it's basically a toss up.

Also in .5 PPR,
Duke Johnson vs. Pit or
Chirs Carson @Den
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