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Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Old 06-05-17, 02:38 PM
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Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

In 2018, Bryce Harper, at worst one of the top three players in the NL, will be a FA. He will be 26. I am a huge Nats fan and I love this kid. He has the ability to transform a franchise by himself.

There is talk of $400M. Clearly only a handful of teams can even consider bidding such an amount. As a Boras client, he will go where the money is, although I'm sure he will give the Nats a fair chance to keep him (since Boras has a great relationship with the team).

The question is, would you pay $400M for Harper if you were running a team? He's definitely worth $30M+ a season given the current MLB salary structure. If there is a chance to get him at 12-15 seasons at that price, I would gladly pull the trigger if I were the Nats. Having Harper means you are likely always going to be a contender for the next 10 years.
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Old 06-05-17, 02:56 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Originally Posted by DVD Josh View Post
Having Harper means you are likely always going to be a contender for the next 10 years.
That's not necessarily true. I agree that Harper is one of the top 3 players right now but baseball is one of the sports were having 1 superstar it's not enough to compete year after year. To keep themselves being perennial contenders, the Nats need great pitching year to year, from top to bottom. And they need players to bat around Harper. There have been an incredible amount of great players who unfortunately have played in perennial losers due to shitty teammates. Andre Dawson, Ernie Banks and Don Mattingly always comes to mind.

I believe that Harper is worth $400M but it's hard to pay that to only 1 player. His type of contract will be insured for injuries but that's still doesn't cover the risk of lower production numbers after he hits 34 years of age and the fact that it would be really hard to fill the team with other good players who also want to be paid. I can see them paying Harper $350M on a 10 year contract.
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Old 06-05-17, 03:00 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Three players in Baseball are worth that kind of money and worth the risk of a ten-year contract : Kershaw, Trout and Harper.
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Old 06-05-17, 03:01 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

No one is worth that kind of money. No one.
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Old 06-05-17, 03:08 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Originally Posted by d2cheer View Post
No one is worth that kind of money. No one.
That's a different question. You are probably right. But would you pay it?
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Old 06-05-17, 03:24 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

The only real players for Harper's free agent contract will be the Dodgers and Yankees, given the size of the financial commitment. It's widely presumed the Yankees are willing to pay him whatever he wants.

If he puts up another MVP season this year or next, he's going to get $400 million.

Trout may very well get close to $500 million when he hits free agency.
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Old 06-05-17, 04:14 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Sure and it doesn't really even seem all that risky considering the team would be getting prime Harper in his age 26-35 years if he signed a 10 year contract. It is not like a Pujols contract where he is already 32 in the first year. Harper even at 35 should still be decent.
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Old 06-05-17, 04:50 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

I have no issue with the annual salary, but would have an issue on the contract length. I might be willing to go 5 years at $30+M per year, and sell him on the fact that he would have another opportunity for a long contract at 31.
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Old 06-05-17, 05:00 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Manny Machado will be in this conversation too. Same age and FA status, maybe not the power ceiling, but more valuable defensively. Not sure why he's sucking it up this year, but maybe contract pressure has something to do with it.

Originally Posted by LurkerDan View Post
I have no issue with the annual salary, but would have an issue on the contract length. I might be willing to go 5 years at $30+M per year, and sell him on the fact that he would have another opportunity for a long contract at 31.
More likely he'd want the years but also an opt-out. That way, he can look for another contract down the road if he wants, or if he's like Jason Heyward and suddenly becomes terrible, he still has the long-term security.
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Old 06-05-17, 05:12 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Fuck no, and I agree with d2cheer's assessment.
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Old 06-05-17, 05:30 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Hell no. He is not worth that. No player is. Plus he's a prick, so fuck him, he doesn't deserve the money.
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Old 06-05-17, 05:55 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

I'm curious, has there ever been a max contract type of player who was actually worth it in the long run in baseball? Not a mid season trade to bolster a playoff run, an actual off season contract signing for big bucks that didn't eventually cripple the team? I can only think of pitchers like Maddox and Randy Johnson.
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Old 06-05-17, 06:06 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

As a Dodger fan, spend away! But really, i'm not sure i'm as sold on Harper as everyone else seems to be. I guess I just see the one monster year (not counting this year yet) along with some just "very good" years, and I don't know if he's going to be as amazing as Mike Trout year to year.
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Old 06-05-17, 06:12 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Originally Posted by fujishig View Post
I'm curious, has there ever been a max contract type of player who was actually worth it in the long run in baseball? Not a mid season trade to bolster a playoff run, an actual off season contract signing for big bucks that didn't eventually cripple the team? I can only think of pitchers like Maddox and Randy Johnson.
At age 25, Clayton Kershaw signed a seven-year contract in 2014 for a then-record $215M with a salary like this :

$18 million signing bonus (paid entirely in 2014)
2014: $4 million
2015: $30 million
2016: $32 million
2017: $33 million
2018: $33 million
2019: $32 million
2020: $33 million

With an opt-out clause after 5 years (coincidentally, the same year Harper hits Free Agency).

While that's a whopper deal, I said above and I'll say it again -- he's worth it. He's the best pitcher in baseball (by far), he's consistently great, and he keeps the Dodgers in contention year after year.
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Old 06-05-17, 06:58 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

I am not sure he will get what he wants .. there are so few teams that can afford that and still put a team around him, the Rangers big spend on ARod should be a good lesson here. Sure, some GM might be an idiot, but dropping so much on him to the point you cannot pay a decent rotation, players to protect him in the order, a closer/rest of the pen is pointless.

I would pay him that much per year, but not for 10 years. I think that is what the negotiations will be more about, the length of the contract versus the $/season.
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Old 06-05-17, 07:17 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Without any way for the team to get out of a long contract (like is regularly done in football) any 10 year deal and/or a long deal that extends into a player's late 30's just doesn't seem worth it. Just way too many things can go wrong in a player's career. Baseball history is full of guys who seemed like megastars, only to have them lose it quickly (either through injury or just lost skills).

The Kershaw deal does seem like a really good one. Nothing wrong with getting premium value for premium money. And he'll still be in his early 30's when it ends. Now if the Dodgers sign him to a long-term extension after that ... that'll be the terrible deal.

Looking at the baseball value delivered, ARod's first 10 year deal (starting in 2001) was a good one. It takes a lot more than 1 guy to win at baseball though. Making it seem like the only teams that win with a contract like that are the ones that can spend like crazy (like the Yankees, when they won with him in 2009).
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Old 06-06-17, 08:37 AM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Originally Posted by Deftones View Post
Hell no. He is not worth that. No player is. Plus he's a prick, so fuck him, he doesn't deserve the money.
He's toned down alot since his early years. Even considering the mound charge (which that fucker deserved). But fuck him or not, he's getting $400M.
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Old 06-06-17, 08:46 AM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

I can't stand Harper and his lucky charms beard... but if anybody is worth the money (and nobody really is) it's between him and Trout.
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Old 06-06-17, 10:04 AM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Never heard of him but sure why not?
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Old 06-06-17, 10:45 AM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Scott Boras is a fan of this thread. Because Harper may not even be the best FA in 2018; there are certainly others worth talking about, but Boras has created the aura around his client.

Harper: Age at the end of next year 26, WAR over the last 3 years (not including this year) 12.5
Machado: 26, 16.2
Kershaw: 30, 20.6
Josh Donaldson: 32 (almost 33), 23.5

Why is Harper the $400 million man?
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Old 06-06-17, 11:27 AM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Originally Posted by LurkerDan View Post
Scott Boras is a fan of this thread. Because Harper may not even be the best FA in 2018; there are certainly others worth talking about, but Boras has created the aura around his client.

Harper: Age at the end of next year 26, WAR over the last 3 years (not including this year) 12.5
Machado: 26, 16.2
Kershaw: 30, 20.6
Josh Donaldson: 32 (almost 33), 23.5

Why is Harper the $400 million man?
Harper is the hot name and has been for awhile. But he has had only one great year and he'll need to do it again this year and next if he wants that $400 million. So I agree that the massive contract talk is a big premature. He has work to do still.

Machado's name isn't getting the same play right now because he's been pretty bad at the plate so far this year. His defense is stellar and if he was hitting this year you'd hear his name a lot right now too. I'm sure that once these guys actually hit free agency, Machado will be right there getting the massive contract.

Kershaw and Donaldson will get paid too but they'll be on the wrong side of 30 when they hit FA so they won't be in the same tier as Machado and Harper.
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Old 06-06-17, 12:34 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

Originally Posted by Deftones View Post
Hell no. He is not worth that. No player is. Plus he's a prick, so fuck him, he doesn't deserve the money.
Originally Posted by Goat3001 View Post
Harper is the hot name and has been for awhile. But he has had only one great year and he'll need to do it again this year and next if he wants that $400 million. So I agree that the massive contract talk is a big premature. He has work to do still.

Machado's name isn't getting the same play right now because he's been pretty bad at the plate so far this year. His defense is stellar and if he was hitting this year you'd hear his name a lot right now too. I'm sure that once these guys actually hit free agency, Machado will be right there getting the massive contract.

Kershaw and Donaldson will get paid too but they'll be on the wrong side of 30 when they hit FA so they won't be in the same tier as Machado and Harper.
That's how I would have responded too, pretty down to the point. Donaldson will get a huge contract but it better be really front loaded. Kershaw could pitch forever I think.
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Old 06-06-17, 12:55 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

I wouldn't risk a 10 year contract on any player, regardless of talent level. That being said, he is absolutely one of the top 5 best players in the league.
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Old 06-06-17, 01:57 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

I remember when Pujols and Prince Fielder were FAs at the same time, and Prince was considered less of a risk because he was younger and had never been injured.
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Old 06-06-17, 02:07 PM
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Re: Would You Pay $400M For Bryce Harper?

And yet nobody jumped on Prince at anywhere near the price he was asking until the end of January. And even then, it was the Tigers because VMart went down for the year. Illitch was looking to plug a hole, and he was known to overspend for names when trying to plug a hole.
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