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Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Old 08-03-16, 07:27 PM
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Fantasy Football Talk 2016

I saw last year's thread was started on 7/20 and a bunch of DVDTalk leagues are being organized. Plus there's already a fantasy football issue I'm struggling with. So seemed like a good time to start a thread

My main league has been tormenting me in the last couple of years. In 2014, I finished as the league's high point scorer only to lay an egg round 1 of the playoffs. Last year, overcame a bad start to finish #1 seed ... only to lose a close one in the championship round.

It's a limited keeper league (10 teams, standard scoring) ... you can keep 2 players, but it costs you your picks in the 1st 2 rounds of the draft (or you keep 1 player losing only your 1st round pick). I really blew the keeper decision last year keeping Andrew Luck (only to end up starting Blake Bortles for most of the season).

On paper, my team has good keeper options with 5 guys in the top 20 for ADP:

Beckham Jr
David Johnson
Le'Veon Bell
Dez Bryant
Jamaal Charles

Keeping OBJ seems a no-brainer. And I don't think I want to go on Dez Bryant journey again this year, or gamble with Charles. But I'm torn between DJ and Bell.

Bell was going to be a no-brainer until the idiot f'ed up his drug test The injury doesn't concern me so much and the guy just puts up beastly numbers when he plays. But that suspension (which I'm pretty sure will be upheld when it comes up for appeal in a week) "Experts" seem to be suggesting you hold off on him until late 2nd or early 3rd round. But his ADP (and default ESPN ranking) suggests he will go earlier than that. The stressful thing about keeping Bell is that then I'll be locked into needing to pick DeAngelo Williams. His ADP is currently around round 7/8 (ESPN ranks him at #65). But I feel like I'll need to "reach" for him a round earlier. Which sucks because it'll be using a pick on a handcuff when there should be good picks available for my starting lineup.

"Expert" rankings seem to love DJ ... I see him top 5 in many places (and no lower than top 10). He was awesome at times but the sample size of his excellence is rather low. And I'm still a bit scared how the Cardinals coaching staff with handle things with everyone healthy.

What do you think? DJ or Bell (assuming suspension is upheld)? At first I was leaning Bell, but that may be more because that's how I was planning all off-season. But thinking about it more makes DJ seem more appealing. Plus, my co-managers "gut" feeling is to keep DJ (along with OBJ). I guess if the season goes poorly I can blame his gut
Old 08-03-16, 07:39 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

I always worry about second year running backs going into a second year slump. I would almost just keep OBJ and see who I can get in the second round of players that other owners dropped. Johnson (unproven, but could have major upside), Bell (Off the field issues and injury prone), Bryant (off the field issues and injury prone), Charles (injury prone). I don't really love any of your other four guys.
Old 08-03-16, 09:23 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

I landed the 1st overall pick in the past two years in my main league. 2014) Adrian Peterson (suspended all year) 2015) Le'Veon Bell (suspended/injured most of the year).

I'm drafting WR in round 1, regardless of my spot.

I'm also going to be gunshy about 2nd year backs who had good seasons last year. David Johnson and Thomas Rawls are tempting, but those guys are the CJ Anderson and Jeremy Hill of 2015.
Old 08-04-16, 12:12 AM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Originally Posted by Osiris3657 View Post
I'm also going to be gunshy about 2nd year backs who had good seasons last year. David Johnson and Thomas Rawls are tempting, but those guys are the CJ Anderson and Jeremy Hill of 2015.
What do you think of Devonta Freeman (who also has an ADP in the top 10)? He had a lot more action than DJ and Rawls to justify a high pick. But in the 2nd half of the season, his numbers were rather pedestrian.
Old 08-04-16, 09:00 AM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Wouldn't touch him in the 1st. Looks like defenses found out how to stop him. I'd rather my #1 RB give me a consistent 10-12 points every week rather than 20 one game and 5 the next. Hate that.
Old 08-06-16, 10:57 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Need to select my keepers. It's a 16 team IDP league and the scoring is pretty standard other wise. We get 4 keepers total that don't affect your draft position or cost picks. One of the keepers must be a IDP. So far I have picked:

Cam Newton
Dez Bryant
Luke Kuechly (IDP)

My thought as the season ended was that TJ Yeldon would be the workhorse RB for the Jags but they went and signed Chris Ivory and are going to start him now. Anyway who should I select as my last keeper? I will be drafting 9th overall.

TJ Yeldon (JAX)
Ameer Abdullah (DET)
Matt Jones (WAS)
Kelvin Benjamin (CAR)
DeVante Parker (MIA)
Old 08-06-16, 11:00 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Originally Posted by Jam Master Jay View Post
Need to select my keepers. It's a 16 team IDP league and the scoring is pretty standard other wise. We get 4 keepers total that don't affect your draft position or cost picks. One of the keepers must be a IDP. So far I have picked:

Cam Newton
Dez Bryant
Luke Kuechly (IDP)

My thought as the season ended was that TJ Yeldon would be the workhorse RB for the Jags but they went and signed Chris Ivory and are going to start him now. Anyway who should I select as my last keeper? I will be drafting 9th overall.

TJ Yeldon (JAX)
Ameer Abdullah (DET)
Matt Jones (WAS)
Kelvin Benjamin (CAR)
DeVante Parker (MIA)
I would go with Kelvin Benjamin.
Old 08-07-16, 12:06 AM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Originally Posted by lwhy? View Post
I would go with Kelvin Benjamin.
Agreed ... and it's not a particularly difficult decision for me. I lucked into KB his rookie year and he was wonderful. Cam loved him, and his production was super solid and consistent. Personnel-wise, there's no reason to think Cam won't go back to using him like before. Yeah, he's coming off an injury but word is good. It's worth keeping him since he has stud WR potential.
Old 08-07-16, 02:31 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

I'm staying away from a RB in the first round for my league.
Old 08-07-16, 06:07 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

good auction league budget??
first time my ppr league is doing a auction draft. all positions get 6 points for tds. 10 starters and 6 bench starters are: 2 qbs, 2 rbs, 3 wrs, 2 flex- rb, wr, te, 1 def what is a good budget for the draft? i think the standard $200 might be to low for the first time of doing this draft.
Old 08-19-16, 08:45 AM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

i need some opinions with my keeper.
a month ago i was certain i was keeping Devontae Freeman and giving up my 8th round pick. Now I'm not sure if i should keep Freeman or Allen Robinson and give up my 5th round pick.

i do have the 1st overall pick in the draft this year and am almost certain I'm going to select Ezekiel Elliot.

Do i have a better shot at getting two solid WR's on my next two picks? or Should i keep Robinson and select WR/RB with picks 2&3?


any advice is greatly appreciated.
Old 08-19-16, 10:58 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Originally Posted by Da Punisher 611 View Post
i need some opinions with my keeper.
a month ago i was certain i was keeping Devontae Freeman and giving up my 8th round pick. Now I'm not sure if i should keep Freeman or Allen Robinson and give up my 5th round pick.

i do have the 1st overall pick in the draft this year and am almost certain I'm going to select Ezekiel Elliot.

Do i have a better shot at getting two solid WR's on my next two picks? or Should i keep Robinson and select WR/RB with picks 2&3?


any advice is greatly appreciated.
I'm not as down about Freeman as most, and keeping him at 8th is amazing, but with Coleman lurking in the background and ARob being phenomenal, I'd say definitely go with ARob. His TD's will most likely go down this year now that they have Ivory to punch it in, but he is still an incredible talent and Bortles will no doubt look for him.

I'm not so sure about EZE as your first pick though, but obviously I'd suggest grabbing Alfred Morris to handcuff him. It's hard to say what to go with afterwards since it'll depend on what's available and who the other managers are keeping. But since EZE is pretty risky IMO, I'd go with another RB in round 2, although def go with value instead of being dead set on an order.
Old 08-20-16, 11:18 AM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Nice to hear others being "down" on running backs. My league treasures them like diamonds for a unicorn's butt. I've never been sold on drafting a RB with a top pick ... They tend to "bust" earlier and more often than other positions; their production is more reliant on the O-line than their own talents (see: "every stud RB that left for a bigger contract with a worse team"); the NFL has become a passing league again; and teams are far more likely to use multiple RBs than rely on a workhorse.

That said, the argument for picking them early is that there are far fewer quality ones out there. Meaning the fantasy production drop-off is far greater as you go down the list. So, do you take Jamal Charles who has scored more combined rushing and receiving TDs over the last three years than anybody else when you also know he has missed a shit-ton of games over that span. Or do you take a lesser back who puts up middling numbers but plays every week. To me, I like consistent week-to-week production over sexy numbers a few times a year. Add to that I have never had a high draft position before (hell, I was 12th for two years straight).

So hear is my quandary -- non-keeper 12 team league, no PPR (boo!), standard scoring (meaning no TD penalty for QBs, they get 6 like everybody else) -- I have the second pick of the draft this year. I prefer to draft in the 7-8-9 or even 10 spot because it is a snaking draft. By picking 2nd I don't get another pick until the 23rd spot. I've never drafted this high so I've never had to place so much "value" on that first pick. I have not yet started any hard research into ADPs and the like. Thoughts here? Do I stick to my "no RBs early" strategy or do I have to abandon that because I have a high pick this year?

A fun side conversation -- how do you set your draft order? We play a consolation tournament for the teams not in the finals and the winner gets the #1 spot. Everything beyond that is a random number drawn out of a hat.
Old 08-20-16, 01:04 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

I like that method of determining the #1 pick. Gives every team a reason to keep trying all season. I've only played in leagues that randomly determined draft order ... most of them you find out your spot minutes before the draft. That kind of sucks.

Absolutely no one would blame you for picking a WR #2 overall this year. You say you haven't been looking at ADPs this year yet. As it turns out, the 1st round is heavier in WRs than I've ever seen. And many ADP lists I've seen start off: ABrown, OBJ, Julio Jones.
Old 08-26-16, 06:35 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Ugh Eifert looks to be out the first few weeks. I don't think I can justify paying his ADP (especially with auto drafters) and holding onto a second tight end in the crucial early weeks of the season unless there's an IR spot.
Old 08-29-16, 01:32 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

At #2, I'd go with a WR--much safer, more consistent production compared to the top RBs (and I say this as someone who had Dez in three leagues last year). In a couple drafts, I'm going to be #3 so I'm looking at one of the top three that brainee mentioned, though I could most likely also have my pick of the RBs.

I also have drafts where I'm slotted at #6 and #10. In the former, I'm looking at Gurley-Elliott territory since the superstud receivers should be gone, though I did get Julio in one mock. At #10, I'm thinking about Gronk, though in most of my mocks he went 7-9, while in the one I did take him I didn't like my team in the end. In that slot, I've mostly been going RB-WR in some order. Starting around rounds 5-6 I'm looking at Wilson-Ben-type QBs, while a few more rounds is Eli-Rivers territory. There should be enough worthwhile QBs to wait till the middle rounds, though I've also seen Luck fall into the 4-5 area.

I've done mocks in both Yahoo and ESPN, which is interesting because their rankings are different, and that affects the drafting. I accidentally did one mock auto-draft when I started it then had to leave. Wow, that team was terrible. Part of the problem was way too much position duplication too soon, which I could probably change with preference settings if I really did think I was going to auto-draft a real team.
Old 08-30-16, 12:01 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Did a draft last night for a new league I am in....10 teams, PPR league....all pretty standard stuff. I am happy with my team for the most part. I picked 6th overall.

I don't have the draft selection where my players were picked but I did go RB/RB to start

QB - Newton, Taylor
RB - Gurley, Charles, Woodhead, Langford, Yeldon, Williams
WR - Evans, Watkins, Hilton, Gordon
TE - Thomas
K - McManus
D - CIN
Old 08-30-16, 12:04 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Originally Posted by ElementZ View Post
Did a draft last night for a new league I am in....10 teams, PPR league....all pretty standard stuff. I am happy with my team for the most part. I picked 6th overall.

I don't have the draft selection where my players were picked but I did go RB/RB to start

QB - Newton, Taylor
RB - Gurley, Charles, Woodhead, Langford, Yeldon, Williams
WR - Evans, Watkins, Hilton, Gordon
TE - Thomas
K - McManus
D - CIN
Considering you went RB-RB, you have three very solid WR starters as well as the top QB.
Old 08-30-16, 12:32 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Originally Posted by davidh777 View Post
Considering you went RB-RB, you have three very solid WR starters as well as the top QB.
As I said, this is a new league and I am not familiar with most of the people playing, however, there were some real head scratchers out there. One guy I do know, drafted 2 kickers, 2 TE, and 2 defence and thought I was crazy for only drafting one each. He continued to brag because he has the best 1-2 punch for Defence (KC/MIN)

I just laughed and asked him what his plans were with his RB's....he drafted AP, Foster, and Morris.....Nothing wrong with AP but I told him it wasn't 2012 anymore.

Should be easy money.
Old 08-30-16, 01:14 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Ah, new owners do funny things. I know because once I was one of them.
Old 08-30-16, 01:46 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Originally Posted by davidh777 View Post
Ah, new owners do funny things. I know because once I was one of them.
My first year of fantasy football (2006) I thought that a QB tandem of Aaron Brooks and Chris Simms was the key to victory. I was wrong.

In a 10 team league, if each week you start the waiver wire DST with the matchup you will probably finish the season top 3 for getting fantasy points out of the DST spot. If this league is for money, they'll learn the hard way.
Old 08-30-16, 01:52 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

BTW, for those of you doing real drafts ... where has Brees been going. I know he's being hyped by a number of "expert" articles as a great value pick this year. Unfortunately, everybody in the league sees these "expert" articles. That, combined with the name recognition of Brees, has me skeptical that Brees is really going to be the bargain the "experts" are claiming he'll be.
Old 08-30-16, 02:24 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Originally Posted by brainee View Post
BTW, for those of you doing real drafts ... where has Brees been going.
Late 4th or early 5th in the two I have done...roughly the same as Luck and Roethlisberger.
Old 08-30-16, 02:36 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Brees went at the top of 5 in my one real draft so far. I took him in one mock because he seemed like a value, so that was probably 5 or 6. I've taken Wilson and Big Ben a couple times, but in general I'm waiting past that tier.
Old 08-30-16, 03:00 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2016

Here's my draft for my main league. 10 team, non-PPR with IDP. Fucking amazing that Demariyus Thomas fell to the 6th round for me! Even with a terrible QB, a #1 WR still is going to put up 1000 yards and 8 TDs or so. I feel like I have some decent depth at all positions...

1. (2) Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG - WR)
2. (19) Jamaal Charles (KC - RB)
3. (22) Alshon Jeffery (Chi - WR)
4. (39) Carlos Hyde (SF - RB)
5. (42) Andrew Luck (Ind - QB)
6. (59) Demaryius Thomas (Den - WR)
7. (62) Jeremy Langford (Chi - RB)
8. (79) Ameer Abdullah (Det - RB)
9. (82) Marvin Jones Jr. (Det - WR)
10. (99) Antonio Gates (SD - TE)
11. (102) Luke Kuechly (Car - LB)
12. (119) Telvin Smith (Jax - LB)
13. (122) Ezekiel Ansah (Det - DE)
14. (139) Willie Snead (NO - WR)
15. (142) Eric Kendricks (Min - LB)
16. (159) Jameis Winston (TB - QB)
17. (162) Brandon McManus (Den - K)

Last edited by Deftones; 08-30-16 at 03:08 PM.

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