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DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

Old 06-25-16, 12:14 PM
  #126  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

YELLOW CARDS

With SUI's elimination, Tommy Harn is now on the brink against 3 other players:



Tommy Harn can be eliminated (by drc) if:
IRL lose (to FRA) + POR+ISL get 5 more points (7 if IRL takes FRA to OT/PK)

Because:
Tommy Harn: FRA+BEL+SUI+SWE+IRL, SUI+SWE+IRL have 14 points with only IRL left alive
drc: FRA+BEL+POR+ISL, POR+ISL have 10 points, both sides alive



Tommy Harn can be eliminated (by BDB) if:
IRL lose (to FRA) + ENG+NIR get 5 more points (7 if IRL takes FRA to OT/PK)

Because:
Tommy Harn: FRA+BEL+SUI+SWE+IRL, SUI+SWE+IRL have 14 points with only IRL left alive
drc: FRA+BEL+ENG+NIR, ENG+NIR have 10 points, both sides alive



Tommy Harn can be eliminated (by Red Dog) if:
BEL lose (to HUN) + GER get 6 more points (8 if BEL take HUN to OT/PK)

Because:
Tommy Harn: FRA+IRL+BEL+SUI+SWE, BEL+SUI+SWE have 16 points, only BEL left alive
Red Dog: FRA+IRL+GER+TUR, GER+TUR have 11 points, GER still alive
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Old 06-25-16, 01:07 PM
  #127  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

WAL 1-0 NIR (Last goal by NIR#4 McAuley (og) 75') - Quake pulls to within 1 point, as everyone with WAL is now within 6 points of first. BDB earns his first caution.
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Old 06-25-16, 01:16 PM
  #128  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

YELLOW CARD!

BDB loses NIR, and gets two yellows as change:



BDB will be eliminated (by astrochimp) if:
FRA lose (to IRL)

Because:
BDB: ENG+BEL+FRA+NIR, FRA+NIR have 12 points, NIR are out
astrochimp: ENG+BEL+CRO+POL, CRO+POL have 20 points.
-- If FRA loses, they will get no more than 2 point, but BDB trails by 8



BDB will be eliminated (by Tommy Harn) if:
ENG lose (to ISL)

Because:
BDB: FRA+BEL+ENG+NIR, ENG+NIR have 10 points, NIR is out
Tommy Harn: FRA+BEL+SUI+SWE+IRL, SUI+SWE+IRL have 14 points
-- If ENG lose, they will get no more than 2 points, but BDB trails by 4.
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Old 06-25-16, 01:21 PM
  #129  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

Note:

This post (here) is constantly updated with the up-to-the-minute elimination scenarios.
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Old 06-25-16, 05:58 PM
  #130  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

CRO 0-1 (aet) POR (Last goal by POR#20 Bernardo 117') - FantasticVSDoom draws level with astrochimp for 1st, drc climbs to within 6. Astrochimp earns a delayed yellow.
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Old 06-25-16, 05:59 PM
  #131  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool



"Hey chimp! I can't give you this yet, because it won't take effect until the Quarterfinals. But I thought you should know...."

astrochimp can be eliminated (by BDB) in the quarterfinals if:
FRA wins (vs IRL) + POL loses (to POR) + FRA gets at least 11 more points (15 if POL takes POR to OT/PK)

Because:
astrochimp: ENG+BEL+CRO+POL, CRO+POL have 22, POL is out
BDB: ENG+BEL+FRA+NIR, FRA+NIR have 12 points, NIR is out
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Old 06-25-16, 06:14 PM
  #132  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

Of the 11 sides left in Euro, here's the player who benefits the most from them doing well:

FRA - Quake1028
IRL - Tommy Harn
GER - Quake1028
SVK - LorenzoL (alone)
HUN - FantasticVSDoom (alone)
BEL - astrochimp + FantasticVSDoom
ITA - hawk (alone)
ESP - Bill Needle
ENG - astrochimp
ISL - drc
POL - astrochimp (alone)
POR - FantasticVSDoom
WAL - FantasticVSDoom
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Old 06-26-16, 03:49 PM
  #133  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

I think I'm in the (very slight) lead?
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Old 06-27-16, 07:45 AM
  #134  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

Hey Ken-you have me down for choosing Ireland, but it is actually Iceland that I selected in my original post.

Either way, thanks for organizing!
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Old 06-27-16, 10:13 AM
  #135  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

Originally Posted by Tommy_Harn View Post
Hey Ken-you have me down for choosing Ireland, but it is actually Iceland that I selected in my original post.

Either way, thanks for organizing!
Whhaaa????

Um.. I need to check that. I'll update the pool for Saturday's games after I run that to ground.
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Old 06-27-16, 10:15 AM
  #136  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

Originally Posted by Tommy_Harn View Post
$35- France
$25- Belgium
$25- Switzerland
$10- Sweden
$5- Iceland

Jersey #11
Sure 'nuff. And I got it right on the "list of picks" table, but the pool score sheet has had IRL instead of ISL all this time.

I'll correct that right now.
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Old 06-27-16, 10:18 AM
  #137  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

Catching up....

Fixing Tommy Harn's pick, then...
FRA 2-1 IRL (Last goal by FRA#7 Griezmann 61')
GER 3-0 SVK (Last goal by GER#11 Draxler 63')
HUN 0-4 BEL (Last goal by BEL#11 Carrasco 90+1')

Table first, commentary second...

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup EGroup F
TeamFRASUIROMALBENGRUSSVKWALGERPOLUKRNIRESPCROCZETURITABELSWEIRLPORAUTHUNISL
Cost3525205352010550201055020201035251053525105
Group Wins210110122201220122010011
Group Losses002202110032102211210200
Group Draws121021101100011000113122
Bonus Points110010111101110011011011
TeamFRASUIROMALBENGRUSSVKWALGERPOLUKRNIRESPCROCZETURITABELSWEIRLPORAUTHUNISL
Group Phase861361578804781377154166
Round of 16 (x2)62---0664-02--6-04-0
Quarters (x4)--------------
Semis (x8)--------------
Championship (x16)--------------
7TeamFRASUIROMALBENGRUSSVKWALGERPOLUKRNIRESPCROCZETURITABELSWEIRLPORAUTHUNISL
PtsJerTBSeqTOTAL POINTS148136151314120471013713158166
441034Quake102814------1314------3--------
4211413Tommy Harn148---------------131----6
4213612Jeremy51714------1314---------1-----
41813drc14----------------13--8--6
4110311FantasticVSDoom-------13---------13--816-
4113615astrochimp----6----12---10---13------
37618BDB14---6------4-----13------
367010Red Dog14-------14------3---5----
341031Bill Needle14------13--0-7-----------
331146Kenbuzz----6--1314-0-------------
32922LorenzoL14-----5-----7----------6
28349Pharoh14-----------7-----1----6
28999214Orphans--13-1---12---101---------
27617hawk--------14-------7-15----
TeamFRASUIROMALBENGRUSSVKWALGERPOLUKRNIRESPCROCZETURITABELSWEIRLPORAUTHUNISL

Last edited by kenbuzz; 06-27-16 at 10:36 AM.
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Old 06-27-16, 10:35 AM
  #138  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

The quick and dirty is:

Ireland's loss to France:
Red Dog eliminated (by Quake1028)
hawk cautioned (ITA must win [Jeremy517])

Slovakia's loss to Germany:
LorenzoL cautioned (ISL must not lose in regulation [Bill Needle], ESP must win [drc])

Hungary's loss to Belguim:
Nothing yet, though if ISL point today, WAL must answer or FantasticVSDoom will be out [drc])
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Old 06-27-16, 11:14 AM
  #139  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

I *believe* these to be the corrected Yellow Card scenarios:

(Alphabetical by player, then chronological by scheduled match)

astrochimp:
POL lose (to POR) in regulation (BDB) + FRA win (vs ENG/ISL) in regulation (BDB)

BDB:
ENG lose (to ISL) (drc)
FRA lose (to ENG/ISL) (astrochimp)

Bill Needle:
ESP lose (to ITA) (Quake1028)
ISL win (vs ENG) + WAL lose (to BEL) in regulation (LorenzoL)

hawk:
ITA lose (to ESP) (Jeremy517)

Kenbuzz:
ENG lose (to ISL) (Quake1028)

LorenzoL:
ESP lose (to ITA) (drc)
ISL lose (to ENG) in regulation (Bill Needle)

Quake1028:
FRA lose (to ENG/ISL) + ENG get 12 more points (14 if FRA take ENG/ISL to OT/PK) (Kenbuzz)

Tommy Harn:
ISL lose (to ENG) in regulation (BDB)
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Old 06-27-16, 01:34 PM
  #140  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

ITA 2-0 ESP (Last goal by ITA#9 Pelle 90+1') - hawk's Italians pick up 6, while LorenzoL and Bill Needle hit the showers.
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Old 06-27-16, 01:38 PM
  #141  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

RED CARDS!



LorenzoL has been eliminated by drc:
-- LorenzoL: FRA+ISL+ESP+SVK, ESP+SVK have 12 points and are done
-- drc: FRA+ISL+POR+BEL, POR+BEL have 21 points



Bill Needle has been eliminated by Quake1028:
-- Bill Needle: FRA+WAL+ESP+UKR, ESP+UKR have 7 points and are done
-- Quake1028: FRA+WAL+GER+TUR, GER+TUR have 17 points
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Old 06-27-16, 01:44 PM
  #142  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

and since Howard was too busy to notice Red Dog's elimination, we have a backup ref:



Red Dog has been eliminated by Quake1028:
-- Red Dog: GER+FRA+TUR+IRL, IRL have 5 points and are done
-- Quake1028: GER+FRA+TUR+WAL, WAL have 13 points
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Old 06-27-16, 01:52 PM
  #143  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

With 8 matches left, here are the players still mathematically alive:

44 Quake1028 = WAL GER FRA
42 Tommy Harn = ISL BEL FRA
41 drc = ISL POR BEL FRA
41 FantasticVSDoom = POR +WAL +BEL
41 astrochimp = ENG POL BEL
37 BDB = ENG BEL FRA
33 Kenbuzz = ENG WAL GER
33 hawk = +GER +ITA

Teams are listed in order of their upcoming matches.

Players in BOLD can get 2 teams into the Finals. Teams in BOLD are owned exclusively by one player. Teams with a "+" play each other in their next match
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Old 06-27-16, 02:35 PM
  #144  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

Originally Posted by kenbuzz View Post
Bill Needle has been eliminated...
It was over when Ramos missed a PK and Spain let through the 87th minute Perišić goal to move to the wrong side of the bracket.
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Old 06-27-16, 09:44 PM
  #145  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

ENG 1-2 ISL (Last goal by ISL#9 Sigţórsson 18') - Huge Upset! Tommy Harn & drc move to the front entering the Quarterfinals, while BDB and Kenbuzz are eliminated.

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup EGroup F
TeamFRASUIROMALBENGRUSSVKWALGERPOLUKRNIRESPCROCZETURITABELSWEIRLPORAUTHUNISL
Cost3525205352010550201055020201035251053525105
Group Wins210110122201220122010011
Group Losses002202110032102211210200
Group Draws121021101100011000113122
Bonus Points110010111101110011011011
TeamFRASUIROMALBENGRUSSVKWALGERPOLUKRNIRESPCROCZETURITABELSWEIRLPORAUTHUNISL
Group Phase861361578804781377154166
Round of 16 (x2)62--0-0664-002--66-04-06
Quarters (x4)----------------
Semis (x8)----------------
Championship (x16)----------------
9TeamFRASUIROMALBENGRUSSVKWALGERPOLUKRNIRESPCROCZETURITABELSWEIRLPORAUTHUNISL
PtsJerTBSeqTOTAL POINTS14813615131412047101313131581612
4811213Tommy Harn148---------------131----12
47813drc14----------------13--8--12
441014Quake102814------1314------3--------
4213412Jeremy51714------1314---------1-----
4110111FantasticVSDoom-------13---------13--816-
4113415astrochimp----6----12---10---13------
38902LorenzoL14-----5-----7----------12
37638BDB14---6------4-----13------
367210Red Dog14-------14------3---5----
341011Bill Needle14------13--0-7-----------
34369Pharoh14-----------7-----1----12
331126Kenbuzz----6--1314-0-------------
33637hawk--------14-------13-15----
28999014Orphans--13-1---12---101---------
TeamFRASUIROMALBENGRUSSVKWALGERPOLUKRNIRESPCROCZETURITABELSWEIRLPORAUTHUNISL
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Old 06-27-16, 10:10 PM
  #146  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

Quarterfinal Bracketology:

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Old 06-27-16, 10:12 PM
  #147  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool




astrochimp eliminated if:
POL lose (to POR) (drc)

drc eliminated if:
POL win (vs POR) in regulation (Tommy Harn)

FvsD eliminated if:
BEL win (vs WAL) (drc)

hawk eliminated iif:
ITA lose (to GER) (Quake)

Quake eliminated if:
WAL lose (to BEL) in regulation + GER lose (to ITA) in regulation + FRA lose (to ISL) in regulation (hawk)

Tommy Harn eliminated if:
POL do not win (vs POR) in regulation (drc)
GER win (vs BEL) + FRA win (vs ISL) (Quake)
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Old 06-28-16, 09:42 AM
  #148  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

4 of the 8 eliminations so far have come by my sword. I fear for Tommy Harn and hawk .




Spoiler:
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Old 06-28-16, 02:06 PM
  #149  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

I'm ready to face that fear head on.
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Old 06-28-16, 03:17 PM
  #150  
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Re: DVDTalk Euro 2016 Pool

There are 7 matches left.
Each match has 4 possible outcomes.
That's 16,384 combinations

It's still too early for me to even take a stab at what each player must have happen for them to win, although for one player it's pretty clear. hawk.... you need ITA to run the table.

Here's what I think a best-case scenario would look like for each player, though there's no guarantee that any of these guarantee a pool clinch, nor is it likely that if these scenarios DO win the pool that there aren't other scenarios that would do that as well....


Doing this from top to bottom:

Tommy Harn:
** POL, BEL, ITA and ISL win quarterfinals.
** BEL v ISL in finals, won't matter who wins.

drc:
** POR, BEL, ITA and ISL win quarterfinals.
** BEL v ISL in finals, won't matter who wins.

Quake1028:
** POL, WAL, GER, FRA win quarterfinals.
** WAL to finals, won't matter who they play or who wins.

FantasticVSDoom:
** POR, WAL, ITA, ISL win quarterfinals.
** ITA to finals, losing to POR/WAL winner

astrochimp:
** POL, BEL, ITA, ISL win quarterfinals.
** POL over ITA in finals

hawk:
** ITA win it all
** preferably with POL, WAL and ISL winning quarterfinals + POL making finals
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