kenbuzz

I just went through the current standings, and it appears that everybody who does not at this moment have 23 wins is out.

- Byron_T has 22 (missed Pitt, got Tennessee) and is 2 games back, but can only make up 1 (UCLA over K State) on me and Trevor
- jasondaub has 21 (got Houston, missed Iowa) and is 3 games back, but can only make up 2 (E Carolina over Florida + Oregon over Ohio St) on me
- MrX has 20 (missed Pitt, got Tennessee) and is 4 games back, but can only make up 1 (Ark State over Toledo) on Trevor
- Brewcrew has 19 (got Houston + Tennessee) and is 5 games back with 5 to go. But he has Washington over OK State, which everybody ahead of him also has.
- All of the others who are at 19 and need to go 5-for-5 lost their national championship team yesterday, so they can only make up 4.
- Nobody else at 18 or below can get to 24 with 5 games left.

kenbuzz

That leaves:

- 24: Trevor with Kansas State, Washington, Florida, Toledo, Oregon
- 24: kenbuzz with Kansas State, Washington, Florida, Toledo, Ohio State
- 23: Bill Geiger with Kansas State, Washington, E Carolina, Arkansas St, Oregon

The Kansas State-UCLA and Washington-Oklahoma State games do not matter, because all 3 have the same picks

Bill Geiger trails Trevor by 1 and has only 2 picks that are different (E Carolina/Florida and Arkansas St/Toledo). If he gets them both, he eliminates Trevor and will go into the national championship game with a 1 game lead over kenbuzz. If he misses either, Trevor eliminates him and Trevor will go into the national championship game tied with kenbuzz (because they have identical picks until then).

If it's Bill Geiger vs kenbuzz, an Oregon victory gives the title to Bill Geiger outright, while an Ohio State victory will create a tie. The tiebreaker is, "If there is a tie, picking the winner of the national championship game will be used as the first tie breaker", so kenbuzz would win.

If it's Trevor vs kenbuzz, the winner (Trevor=Oregon, kenbuzz=Ohio State) wins outright.

Therefore...

Bill Geiger needs:
E Carolina MUST defeat Florida
Arkansas St MUST defeat Toledo
Oregon MUST defeat Ohio State

Trevor needs:
Florida OR Toledo must win
Oregon MUST defeat Ohio State

kenbuzz needs:
Ohio State MUST defeat Oregon

Kal Varnsen

Me too!

Bill Geiger

I am just happy to be here....was a good run.

Trevor

I'm happy with at least third place, especially considering every pick but two were complete blind guesses.

starman9000

I'm just happy to have an outside shot to get back to .500 Been a fun week of watching bowl games, even if the Gophers laid a disappointing egg.

kenbuzz

Fixed.

printerati

I made the mistake of paying too much attention to the Vegas lines when making my picks this year, something I didn't do last year. The results speak for themselves in both cases.

kenbuzz

I don't know crap about college football. I went homer on the two Ohio State games, then used a spreadsheet with the opening Vegas lines to figure out an educated guess at a win % for the teams in the other 37 games. Keeping only the 2 dozen or so closest games, and figuring that 1/4 to 1/3 of them would end in upsets, I turned a random number generator loose against those remaining "close" games and kept hitting refresh until it generated a set with exactly 8 or 9 upsets.

I other words, my picks were a bunch of blind draws that were weighted toward favorites but that would generate a specific # of on-paper upsets. I just got lucky since my spreadsheet apparently picked most of the right ones.

Trevor

What can I say? I scanned the past results and figured you had to be due for some good luck. And to finish this poem, go Duck(s)!

kenbuzz

Yeah, "go Duck(s)" yourself.

Dr_Evil

Current Standings

Rank	Username	Correct	Incorrect
1	kenbuzz	25	12
1	Trevor	25	12
3	Byron_T	24	13
4	Bill Geiger	23	14
5	MrX	21	16
5	BrewCrew	21	16
5	jasondaub	21	16
5	shizawn	21	16
9	koops	20	17
9	NORML54061	20	17
9	Jeremy517	20	17
12	Dr_Evil	19	18
12	Kal Varnsen	19	18
14	LurkerDan	18	19
14	printerati	18	19
14	Quake1028	18	19
14	Daryl	18	19
14	DVDMagic	18	19
19	Supr_65	17	20
19	sleepyhead55	17	20
19	starman9000	17	20
22	Calculon	16	21
22	davidlynchfan	16	21
22	Shamus McAnally	16	21
25	Redrocker	15	22
26	Sonny Corinthos	13	24
27	HistoryProf	12	25

LurkerDan

man, I really tanked after such a good start.

Shamus McAnally

I think this is the first year I've ever finished under .500. (Admittedly, I don't think I ever finished that far over it either, but at least it was over.)

That said, the Buckeyes' first win already erased any pain over that. Another win will just be icing on the cake.

Thanks again for running this, Dr_Evil. I know you've said it's really not too big a deal with the spreadsheet, just formatting, but as someone with no clue about that stuff, and probably way too lazy to do it, your commitment to this every year, especially with your new time focus, is VERY much appreciated!

Dr_Evil

Current Standings

Rank	Username	Correct	Incorrect
1	kenbuzz	26	12
1	Trevor	26	12
3	Byron_T	25	13
4	Bill Geiger	23	15
5	BrewCrew	22	16
5	jasondaub	22	16
5	shizawn	22	16
8	MrX	21	17
8	koops	21	17
8	Jeremy517	21	17
11	NORML54061	20	18
11	Kal Varnsen	20	18
13	LurkerDan	19	19
13	Dr_Evil	19	19
13	Daryl	19	19
16	printerati	18	20
16	Supr_65	18	20
16	sleepyhead55	18	20
16	Quake1028	18	20
16	starman9000	18	20
16	DVDMagic	18	20
22	Shamus McAnally	17	21
23	Calculon	16	22
23	Redrocker	16	22
23	davidlynchfan	16	22
26	Sonny Corinthos	13	25
27	HistoryProf	12	26

Dr_Evil

January 12th Game

There is one games left on the schedule.

College Football Playoff National Championship Presented By AT&T 2. Oregon vs. 4. Ohio State

Arlington, Texas AT&T Stadium

Jan. 12 8:30pm ET

ESPN

Pick Breakdowns
Oregon - 48%: MrX, LurkerDan, Redrocker, Trevor, koops, jasondaub, NORML54061, Quake1028, HistoryProf, starman9000, Bill Geiger, Daryl, Shamus McAnally
Ohio State - 12%: kenbuzz, BrewCrew, DVDMagic

Florida State - 7%: Calculon, sleepyhead55
Alabama - 33%: Dr_Evil, printerati, Supr_65, Byron_T, davidlynchfan, Jeremy517, shizawn, Kal Varnsen, Sonny Corinthos

Top of the Standings
kenbuzz and Trevor will battle it out, winner take all in the final game

Streaking
shizawn is on 3 game correct streak

Bill Geiger went for all the glory, but came up short and is on a 5 game losing streak.

Who Can Still Win
kenbuzz will be the champion if Ohio State wins
Trevor will be the champion if Oregon wins

All Time Standings With 1 Game to Go

Username	Correct	Incorret	Percent Correct	Years Participated	Change in Win Pct
Hogfishmaster	21	7	75.00%	1	0.00%
IDrinkMolson	21	8	72.41%	1	0.00%
cardsfan111	25	10	71.43%	1	0.00%
Joe Molotov	42	19	68.85%	2	0.00%
kvrdave	22	10	68.75%	1	0.00%
starseed1981	24	11	68.57%	1	0.00%
jPod_TGN	23	11	67.65%	1	0.00%
sven	23	12	65.71%	1	0.00%
1998Nole	21	11	65.63%	1	0.00%
namja	60	32	65.22%	3	0.00%
Chris Tribbey	18	10	64.29%	1	0.00%
ENDContra	18	10	64.29%	1	0.00%
RoyalTea	18	10	64.29%	1	0.00%
Kal Varnsen	113	65	63.48%	5	-2.95%
Nagheenanajar	39	23	62.90%	2	0.00%
mwb	18	11	62.07%	1	0.00%
pinata242	18	11	62.07%	1	0.00%
the Chief	18	11	62.07%	1	0.00%
Lemdog	21	13	61.76%	1	0.00%
Daryl**	241	150	61.64%	12	-1.25%
slymer	61	38	61.62%	3	0.00%
Supr_65*	181	114	61.36%	9	-2.07%
B.A.	17	11	60.71%	1	0.00%
Dah-Dee	17	11	60.71%	1	0.00%
Preacher	17	11	60.71%	1	0.00%
Scott27	38	25	60.32%	2	0.00%
randyba	21	14	60.00%	1	0.00%
ctyankee	42	28	60.00%	2	0.00%
Jeremy517*	250	169	59.67%	13	-0.44%
Dash	78	53	59.54%	4	0.00%
Clemente*	103	70	59.54%	6	0.00%
twikoff	107	73	59.44%	6	0.00%
ericn101	41	28	59.42%	2	0.00%
Lunatikk	19	13	59.38%	1	0.00%
Byron_T*	198	137	59.10%	10	0.86%
wetsprockets	56	39	58.95%	3	0.00%
The Zizz	68	48	58.62%	4	0.00%
rabbit77	17	12	58.62%	1	0.00%
LurkerDan	225	159	58.59%	12	-0.94%
BrewCrew*	123	89	58.02%	6	-0.03%
Trevor	62	45	57.94%	3	5.77%
sleepyhead55	103	75	57.87%	5	-2.85%
Me007Gold	60	44	57.69%	3	0.00%
wlmowery	76	56	57.58%	4	0.00%
printerati*	42	31	57.53%	2	-11.04%
Palaver	100	74	57.47%	5	0.00%
Fist of Doom	100	74	57.47%	5	0.00%
Zak52	32	24	57.14%	2	0.00%
~M~	16	12	57.14%	1	0.00%
bigdogkt2003	16	12	57.14%	1	0.00%
Evenflowddt	16	12	57.14%	1	0.00%
Hypeiv	16	12	57.14%	1	0.00%
Ranger02	16	12	57.14%	1	0.00%
YellowLedbettr	16	12	57.14%	1	0.00%
acubfaninmd	40	30	57.14%	2	0.00%
Keith6601	20	15	57.14%	1	0.00%
HistoryProf*	239	180	57.04%	13	-2.54%
davidlynchfan*	238	181	56.80%	13	-1.47%
MrX	238	181	56.80%	13	-0.15%
Dr_Evil	222	169	56.78%	12	-0.73%
Mordred	36	28	56.25%	2	0.00%
Larry C.	38	30	55.88%	3	0.00%
Pillowhead	19	15	55.88%	1	0.00%
jasondaub*	118	94	55.66%	6	0.49%
Bill Geiger*	202	161	55.65%	11	0.57%
koops	60	48	55.56%	3	-0.16%
Josh Hinkle	80	64	55.56%	5	0.00%
DVDMagic	98	79	55.37%	5	-2.19%
Three Day Delay	31	25	55.36%	2	0.00%
flagstone	141	114	55.29%	8	0.00%
matta	16	13	55.17%	1	0.00%
kenbuzz	177	145	54.97%	10	1.80%
wildcatlh	70	59	54.26%	4	0.00%
NORML54601	77	65	54.23%	4	-0.58%
Arpeggi	126	108	53.85%	7	0.00%
Quack	112	96	53.85%	6	0.00%
DVDHO	15	13	53.57%	1	0.00%
J-Dubya	15	13	53.57%	1	0.00%
Mahoo	15	13	53.57%	1	0.00%
thisistyler	15	13	53.57%	1	0.00%
zekeburger1979	15	13	53.57%	1	0.00%
Quake1028	223	196	53.22%	13	-0.58%
Redrocker	76	67	53.15%	4	-4.00%
bishop2knight	18	16	52.94%	1	0.00%
DGibFen	18	16	52.94%	1	0.00%
Shamus McAnally	130	116	52.85%	7	-1.48%
shizawn	220	199	52.51%	13	0.54%
planetaire	32	29	52.46%	2	0.00%
LorenzoL	109	99	52.40%	6	0.00%
Sonny Corinthos	128	118	52.03%	7	-3.26%
DVD Josh	15	14	51.72%	1	0.00%
Toad	15	14	51.72%	1	0.00%
Das monkey	31	29	51.67%	2	0.00%
adrenaline78	18	17	51.43%	1	0.00%
starman9000	73	69	51.41%	4	-1.48%
Calculon	152	145	51.18%	8	-1.33%
Corleone	14	14	50.00%	1	0.00%
JMLEWIS1	14	14	50.00%	1	0.00%
nchhabra	14	14	50.00%	1	0.00%
Tarantino	17	17	50.00%	1	0.00%
Lt Ripley	34	36	48.57%	2	0.00%
BearFan	17	18	48.57%	1	0.00%
The Cow	43	46	48.31%	3	0.00%
DX 4 Life	14	15	48.28%	1	0.00%
MartinBlank	14	15	48.28%	1	0.00%
cheenno	13	15	46.43%	1	0.00%
Luddy	13	15	46.43%	1	0.00%
Sildenafil	13	15	46.43%	1	0.00%
The Governor	13	15	46.43%	1	0.00%
yogi12526	13	15	46.43%	1	0.00%
amplified	15	19	44.12%	1	0.00%
House13	15	19	44.12%	1	0.00%
Smangalick	12	16	42.86%	1	0.00%
The Bus	26	35	42.62%	2	0.00%
beesonosu	12	17	41.38%	1	0.00%
Blake	23	33	41.07%	2	0.00%
Canadian Bacon	14	21	40.00%	1	0.00%
LaxBandit	25	38	39.68%	2	0.00%
CRM114	13	21	38.24%	1	0.00%
nimrod	11	18	37.93%	1	0.00%
BigDave	11	21	34.38%	1	0.00%
Borisdisco	9	19	32.14%	1	0.00%

10 Hardest to Call Games Standings

Rank	Username	Correct	Incorrect
1	shizawn	7	2
2	kenbuzz	6	3
2	MrX	6	3
2	Trevor	6	3
2	Supr_65	6	3
2	NORML54061	6	3
7	Calculon	5	4
7	Byron_T	5	4
7	davidlynchfan	5	4
7	sleepyhead55	5	4
7	HistoryProf	5	4
7	Bill Geiger	5	4
7	DVDMagic	5	4
14	koops	4	5
14	BrewCrew	4	5
14	Quake1028	4	5
14	Jeremy517	4	5
18	LurkerDan	3	6
18	printerati	3	6
18	Redrocker	3	6
18	jasondaub	3	6
18	starman9000	3	6
18	Daryl	3	6
18	Kal Varnsen	3	6
18	Sonny Corinthos	3	6
26	Dr_Evil	2	7
26	Shamus McAnally	2	7

printerati

Well, at least I was at the top of the standings in something.

Bill Geiger

Trevor better hope I don't have a 6 game losing streak to end it.

kenbuzz

Yes he should.

Daryl

I should change my entry name to "Wheels Fell Off". Oy. But at least I was able to jump past Supr_65 for best winning percentage amongst the long-timers (which I arbitrarily defined as people who have played longer than Kal Varnsen's 5 years )

Dr_Evil

You're still above 60% though, which is my arbitrary line in the sand for very good picking ability. If you can maintain 60%+ for 5+ years, I think that is the best of the best. There were a lot of people dropping their percentages this year. The additional games and general dilution of bowl game quality doesn't make it any easier. The first year the challenge was held, there were 25 bowl games. This year there were 39.

Trevor

I never do well in the sheep games or sports contests here. This may be my last best chance for a permanent asterisk in DVDTalk lore and Google caches.

I have my resumè ready for editing.

Dr_Evil

In case you forgot it is still bowl season! Tonight a winner is crowned.

Trevor


vs

kenbuzz

Trevor

I've been practicing my route running. I still have three years of eligibility and hear Oregon needs a WR.

kenbuzz

I'm drinking heavily and hoping to get a free tattoo.