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Fantasy Football Talk 2014

Old 08-09-14, 10:34 AM
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Fantasy Football Talk 2014

I think is time for us to start a thread for the upcoming season. My league draft is on Friday August 29th. 12 team league, ppr with standard and bonus scoring on ESPN website.

Some hard choices after the first 3-4 picks. I imagine that the first 4 picks will be RBs (Charles, McCoy, Forte and Peterson) and then anything goes...
Old 08-10-14, 09:45 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

Originally Posted by LorenzoL View Post
Some hard choices after the first 3-4 picks. I imagine that the first 4 picks will be RBs (Charles, McCoy, Forte and Peterson) and then anything goes...
Beast Mode, Megatron, and Lacy seem like guys I'd be fine with getting in the middle first. It's after that that I have trouble seeing what I'd do. I guess Peyton or Graham would be tempting late in the 1st. But that still leaves 3 more 1st rounders (in a 12-team league), and no one else really feels 1st-round worthy. There's the rest of the top WRs (DThomas, AJ Green, Dez). Question mark RBs (Ball, Foster, Stacy, Bell, Murray, Martin). Another elite QB (Brees, Rodgers).

Looks like I'd be hoping for a high draft number, giving you a top stud RB and the leisure of taking whatever iffy guy is left in the 2nd. If my pick was at the end of the 1st, I don't like those RBs that look to be there. I think I'd get myself set up with elite talent at WR, QB, or TE with those first two picks and try to target high-upside RBs later in the draft.
Old 08-10-14, 10:05 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

Here's a question ... one league I played in last year decided to start keepers (which I've never played with before). We can keep two players, but they will cost us a pick in the round we picked them up in last year's draft. If our keeper was a free agent pickup, the lost draft pick comes from the last pick in the draft.

Here are the players that are potentially worth keeping (with the round I picked them in last year's draft in parentheses):

Alfred Morris (1)
AJ Green (2)
Vincent Jackson (3)
Reggie Bush (4)
Zac Stacy (free agent)
Keenan Allen (free agent)

Stacy seems like a good keeper. Even though he and Morris rank pretty close for 2014, the difference in draft cost seems to be huge. While a lot of top players will be kept, there will be some good ones left (Charles, Rodgers, Murray, Foster were on teams that aren't returning so their players will all be available to draft).

Green vs Allen has me thinking though. Allen gives me ~4th round value from the end of the draft. But Green is a proven stud, who's 2nd round cost will still be good value. Though if I have both of my top picks intact, I have a good chance at getting Green (or someone equally valuable) while keeping Stacy and Allen.

What do you think? We don't have to set keepers until an hour before draft, so there's time to think about this.
Old 08-10-14, 10:11 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

I think Stacy or Allen are clearly are the keepers here. You lose far less and still would be able to pick up premiere players in the top rounds of the draft. I'd probably lean more toward Stacy, but that is me. Stacy is a top 15 back in most scoring leagues, possibly up to top 10. Allen is pretty much the same. I think top tier RBs are harder to come by than WRs, so that's probably why I'd keep Stacy.
Old 08-10-14, 10:19 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

Originally Posted by Deftones View Post
I think Stacy or Allen are clearly are the keepers here. You lose far less and still would be able to pick up premiere players in the top rounds of the draft. I'd probably lean more toward Stacy, but that is me. Stacy is a top 15 back in most scoring leagues, possibly up to top 10. Allen is pretty much the same. I think top tier RBs are harder to come by than WRs, so that's probably why I'd keep Stacy.
I can keep two, so I could keep both Stacy and Allen.

It is true that the top of the draft will be weaker because of the keepers (so a 1st round pick won't necessarily get you a 1st round level player). Looking at the other teams, here are the top players I think will be kept (with the pick they will cost their owner in parentheses):

RB: McCoy (1), Adrian Peterson (1), Forte (2), Marshawn Lynch (1)

WR: Megatron (1), Den Thomas (3), Brandon Marshall (2), Julio Jones (2), Alshon Jeffery (14), Antonio Brown (6)

QB: Peyton Manning (2), Brees (2), Cam Newton (3)

TE: Jimmy Graham (3)

So it looks like about half of the guys normally taken in the 1st 2 rounds will be available. Though it's bottom heavy ... Charles and Lacy are the only sure-fire 1st round talents left. Because of the high volume of high round busts last year, I think a lot of teams will be holding onto their 1st and/or 2nd round picks.

Last edited by brainee; 08-10-14 at 10:44 PM.
Old 08-10-14, 10:21 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

Oh, sorry. Misread. Then I'd keep both of those guys. You get far more value in keeping those guys than any of those other players. Ultimately, most of those guys are pretty much going to be in the rounds you would typically keep them. So you aren't getting any extra value by keeping them. But, keeping Stacy and Allen provides you with 2 potential top 10 players at their position at an extremely low cost. And, you could still potentially get any of those other players in the rounds they project in. But that's just my 2 cents.

Last edited by Deftones; 08-10-14 at 10:28 PM.
Old 08-11-14, 05:01 AM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

I'd like in on a DVDtalk Fantasy league this year.... just sayin'
Old 08-11-14, 05:14 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

I play in a 4 keeper league with no penalty based on round. We start 2 RB and 3 WR and it is PPR. I have Arian Foster, Alfred Morris, Le'veon Bell, Giovani Bernard and Joi'que Bell. (1 extra RB since I was able to stash Foster on IR) My best WR Julian Edelman and TY Hilton. QB was Stafford. From that list do you think I should keep 4 RB even though i can only start 2 and take my chances?
Old 08-11-14, 05:28 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

With PPR, I think I'd keep Edelman over Joi'que. Can you find a team weak at RB and try to package Edelman and one of the RBs for a stud WR or top-3 QB?
Old 08-11-14, 06:23 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

I can only keep 4 total, listed 5 rb and 2 wr I could choose from. I doubt I could get Manning, Brees or Rodgers. It is possible I could find someone keeping 3 WR and swing a trade but wont know until the day of the draft. I think i pick 7th and we will start in Round 5 so expect to be a few decent WR available if i did keep 4 RB.
Old 08-11-14, 06:23 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

Originally Posted by Axeramm View Post
I play in a 4 keeper league with no penalty based on round. We start 2 RB and 3 WR and it is PPR. I have Arian Foster, Alfred Morris, Le'veon Bell, Giovani Bernard and Joi'que Bell. (1 extra RB since I was able to stash Foster on IR) My best WR Julian Edelman and TY Hilton. QB was Stafford. From that list do you think I should keep 4 RB even though i can only start 2 and take my chances?
As long as people are open to trading in your league, then I'd keep Foster, Morris, Bell, and Bernard. You'd think any one of them would net a better WR or QB than Hilton or Edelman or Stafford.
Old 08-11-14, 06:34 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

I got the 14th of 14 picks this year. Normally I'd be upset but I've had a top 3 pick twice recently and it did me no good. I'm thinking there's some good depth this year and getting the 14th and 15th player could be an advantage.
Old 08-14-14, 03:40 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

My longest standing league has decided to contract 4 teams with lazy owners and go from a 12 team league to an 8 team league, among other changes. Not happy about it (aside from ditching the week 17 championship), but whatever, I'll play this season and see how it goes. In the draft, we're allowed the option of selecting 2 keepers or going for a fresh rebuild.

I'll be drafting #7, so trying to determine if I should keep my guys or go fresh. My starters last season were Kap, Lacy, Stacy, Graham, Antonio Brown, Garcon. I've been tossing around the idea of keeping Lacy and Graham but I'm not sure. Any thoughts?
Old 08-14-14, 04:00 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

If it was still a 12 team league, I would definitely say to keep both Lacy and Graham but in a 8 team league isn't better players available and pretty much every team is stacked? What are the penalties of having the 2 keepers? Are you out of your first two picks? Is it standard or PPR scoring? Depending on what you have to give out, I might not lean towards keeping them.

I have never played in an 8 team league but I knew someone who did and every team in the league had very good players in each position. It pretty much seems to come down to injury in winning the league. I don't find that very entertaining.
Old 08-14-14, 04:07 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

Yeah, I'd be sitting out the first two rounds of the draft. I made the point to the league that every team will be stacked and the winner lucks out on injuries, but alas...

Standard scoring league.
Old 08-14-14, 04:13 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

How does it work in regards to which players are available? I'm assuming that you have to let them know before the draft whether you keeping your players or not. This is hard since I guess it all depends of which players are available and you won't know that until after you make your decision.
Old 08-14-14, 05:04 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

I would look at the other teams and see who you think would be kept and who would be available.
Old 08-14-14, 05:22 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

Originally Posted by Dr. Henry Jones, Jr. View Post
I made the point to the league that every team will be stacked and the winner lucks out on injuries, but alas...

Standard scoring league.
Have you given consideration to changing the roster requirements because you have fewer teams? For example, I was in an 8-team league but we expanded the rosters - starting 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs (not to mention a whole slew of IDPs as well, which is another issue). Even though there were only 8 teams, you had to dig just as deep into the player pool to compete as 12-team leagues did.
Old 08-14-14, 05:36 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

Originally Posted by brainee View Post
Have you given consideration to changing the roster requirements because you have fewer teams? For example, I was in an 8-team league but we expanded the rosters - starting 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs (not to mention a whole slew of IDPs as well, which is another issue). Even though there were only 8 teams, you had to dig just as deep into the player pool to compete as 12-team leagues did.
That was a great idea! I hope it made it more fun and challenging
Old 08-14-14, 06:23 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

Originally Posted by LorenzoL View Post
That was a great idea! I hope it made it more fun and challenging
It certainly gave things a big league feel despite a smaller number of teams. While there's still a huge amount of luck (inherent to any fantasy football league), you had to know your sleepers, get your handcuffs, be smart with your bench depth, and stay on top of things to succeed.

Sometimes I read questions like "Eddie Lacy is a free agent ... do I pick him up?" and just (not here mind you). I guess people are allowed to play however they want. But I don't see any appeal in playing in leagues like that. And as I mentioned, the number of players you have isn't an issue since you can change the roster requirements. Unless you just have 4 people ... then you probably need to make more friends before worrying about something as specific as fantasy football But even then, I've seen smaller groups of friends open the rest of their league up to the public joining. Sure it's a crapshoot how these unknown managers will be. But I've seen it work; and I've seen plenty of "friends" turn out to be crappy managers.
Old 08-18-14, 05:27 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

My first draft of the year. ESPN 10 team I had pick 5

LeSean McCoy RB
Le'Veon Bell RB
Alfred Morris RB
Randall Cobb WR
Larry Fitzgerald WR
Roddy White WR
Julian Edelman WR
Jason Witten TE
Stevan Ridley RB
Kendall Wright WR
Khiry Robinson RB
Andy Dalton QB
Greg Jennings WR
Chiefs D/ST D/ST
Carson Palmer QB
Blair Walsh K
Old 08-18-14, 05:59 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

Originally Posted by LorenzoL View Post
If it was still a 12 team league, I would definitely say to keep both Lacy and Graham but in a 8 team league isn't better players available and pretty much every team is stacked? What are the penalties of having the 2 keepers? Are you out of your first two picks? Is it standard or PPR scoring? Depending on what you have to give out, I might not lean towards keeping them.

I have never played in an 8 team league but I knew someone who did and every team in the league had very good players in each position. It pretty much seems to come down to injury in winning the league. I don't find that very entertaining.
Originally Posted by Dr. Henry Jones, Jr. View Post
Yeah, I'd be sitting out the first two rounds of the draft. I made the point to the league that every team will be stacked and the winner lucks out on injuries, but alas...

Standard scoring league.
Originally Posted by LorenzoL View Post
How does it work in regards to which players are available? I'm assuming that you have to let them know before the draft whether you keeping your players or not. This is hard since I guess it all depends of which players are available and you won't know that until after you make your decision.
Originally Posted by Axeramm View Post
I would look at the other teams and see who you think would be kept and who would be available.
Yeah, it's tricky, but it's not a bad idea to keep Lacy and Graham, who are both arguably top-12 players. The key is the four teams that are being contracted: Who are the top players on those teams? Those will be the key targets in the draft. After that, you look at the other seven remaining teams. Do they all have two top-16 players who are worth keeping? If they do, then the first two rounds are thrown out anyway. Do any of them have more than two who will have to go back into the pool? So look at the likely pool of available players, and any teams that seem likely to keep NO players. If there are four teams ahead of you that will keep no players, then your first-round pick would be #5--is the fifth-best available player better than Lacy or Graham?

Obviously there's risk involved as you don't know what the other teams are going to do.

I've played in a small league the last couple years and didn't think it was too luck-based. Sure, it's a factor, but if you lose a key player, at least you have better replacements than you would have in a larger league so you may not necessarily be toast. It helped that our league has always started three RB, three WR, and one TE (no flex) even when we had 10 teams so we had still had to dig a little.

Originally Posted by Axeramm View Post
My first draft of the year. ESPN 10 team I had pick 5

LeSean McCoy RB
Le'Veon Bell RB
Alfred Morris RB
Randall Cobb WR
Larry Fitzgerald WR
Roddy White WR
Julian Edelman WR
Jason Witten TE
Stevan Ridley RB
Kendall Wright WR
Khiry Robinson RB
Andy Dalton QB
Greg Jennings WR
Chiefs D/ST D/ST
Carson Palmer QB
Blair Walsh K
I'm surprised you got Shady at #5. I figured he'd be at least top 2 in nearly every scenario.
Old 08-19-14, 06:02 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

The Browns D a sleeper?

What is the ADP of Tom Brady and will he be a value or has the decline already set it?
Old 08-21-14, 03:43 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

Without looking up Brady, he's far removed from the Top 3 tier he was in a year or two ago. Still a starting QB in a standard league, and probably a value unless he completely tanks.

Finally got notification that our longtime league is still in business despite our commissioner having left. Except, yikes, that means four leagues for me--two in person, two online--and last year was the first time I'd done as many as two. And I have drafts coming up on Saturday and Sunday. Guess I better get studying!
Old 08-21-14, 05:03 PM
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Re: Fantasy Football Talk 2014

Brady had rookies and the walking wounded to throw to last year. He's going to have a monster year this year. He's lighting it up with Amendola, Edelman, and LaFell. Throw in a healthy Gronk... forgeddaboutit

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