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Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

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Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Old 03-31-12, 01:16 PM
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Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Let the major KY Derby preps begin.

Florida Derby (G1)

Post time: Saturday at 5:38 p.m. at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla.
Purse: $1 million.
Distance: 1 1/8 miles.
Weight: 122 pounds.
TV: NBCSN, HRTV.

1. Fort Loudon - Sanchez/Gold 20-1
2. News Pending - Maragh/Romans 8-1
3. Take Charge Indy - Borel/Byrne 5-1
4. Neck N’ Neck - Prado/Wilkes 20-1
5. Z Camelot - Bravo/Romans 50-1
6. Union Rags - Leparoux/Matz 6-5
7. Bartolome - Castanon/Garoffalo 30-1
8. El Padrino - Castellano/Pletcher 2-1
9. Reveron - Trujillo/Bezara 12-1

________________________________

99th Louisiana Derby (G2)

Post Time: 5:55 p.m. ET Sunday at The Fair Grounds in New Orleans.
Purse: $1 million.
Distance: 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds
Weight: 122
TV: HRTV

(Horses are in post-position order)

2. Fire Alarm - Miguel Mena / Bret Calhoun 20-1
3. Windsurfer - John Velazquez / Todd Pletcher 12-1
4. Finnegans Wake - Corey Lanerie / Dale Romans 15-1
5. Flashy Sunrise - Rajiv Maragh / Dallas Stewart 30-1
6. Cigar Street - Shaun Bridgmohan / Steve Margolis 7-2
7. Shared Property - Leandro Goncalves / Tom Amoss 10-1
1. Mr. Bowling - Robby Albarado / Larry Jones 2-1
1A. Mark Valeski - Rosie Napravnik / Larry Jones 2-1
8. Arm Force - Julien Leparoux / Eoin Harty 20-1
9. Comisky’s Humor - Richard Eramia / Ron Faucheux Jr. 20-1
10. Z Dager - Shane Sellers / Steve Asmussen 8-1
11. Rousing Sermon - Mike Smith / Jerry Hollendorfer 6-1
12. Hero of Order - Eddie Martin Jr. / Gennadi Dorochenko 30-1
13. Afford - James Graham / Greg Geier 15-1
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Old 03-31-12, 04:57 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Union Rags is rags....but he might do okay at 1 1/4.

El Padrino fucked me....I had him boxed with the 35-1 place horse.
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Old 04-01-12, 05:13 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

99-1+ shot wins the LA Derby.

Mark Valeski ran a good race...I would think that should get him in.
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Old 04-01-12, 07:10 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

The actual closing odds was 109-1. $220.80 $79.20 $25.40 - not a bad payout.

The time for the 1 1/8 was 1:50.3. Earlier Nates Mineshaft won The New Orleans Handicap (same distance) with a track record time of 1:47.64. That's very fast.

It was a weekend of upsets in the preps. I wonder if that trend will hold in next weeks preps?

Last edited by classicman2; 04-01-12 at 07:40 PM.
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Old 04-03-12, 02:05 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Opening day at Fairmount Park.

Purses are a little bigger this year, so they have that going for them.
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Old 04-03-12, 02:17 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
The time for the 1 1/8 was 1:50.3. Earlier Nates Mineshaft won The New Orleans Handicap (same distance) with a track record time of 1:47.64. That's very fast.
Highest BSF to date this year - at any distance. And significantly better at anything a mile and over. That's a 5yo horse. Late bloomer?
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Old 04-05-12, 08:10 AM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

The Wood Memorial, The Santa Anita Derby, & The Illinois Derby will be run this Saturday.

Gemologist, undefeated in 4 starts, will be the favorite in a very weak field, IMO. How weak - the favorite will probably have to win or place to have enough graded stakes earnings for the Derby. I think Alpha is better choice to win.

A much better race, The Carter G1, will follow. That race has 3 top, proven horses: Calebs Posse, Shackleford, & Jackson Bend to run in that race.

The Santa Anita Derby will follow that race with 3 Baffert horses running against the other.

Both races can be seen on NBC. The Carter, I don't believe will be shown on NBC, but TVG & HRTV both will carry it.

Perhaps Red Dog will be kind enough to furnish the particulars of each race.

He's got high speed internet.
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Old 04-05-12, 08:38 AM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

I have an air-card. That ain't high speed.

I didn't realize that Jackson Bend and Caleb's Posse were running against each other this weekend. That's a good matchup. Yes, it's a 5:55p post on TVG and HRTV.

The Ashland Stakes is also on NBC Saturday. I think that's the last major prep for the Ky. Oaks.

Last edited by Red Dog; 04-05-12 at 08:47 AM.
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Old 04-06-12, 10:44 AM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Free Brisnet PPs:

Wood Memorial:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/wood12

Santa Anita Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/saderby12

Illinois Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/illderby12

Carter Handicap:
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...her_845598.pdf

Ashland Stakes:
http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/mcpeek_845518.pdf
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Old 04-06-12, 02:27 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Interesting food for thought no matter what happens tomorrow....in the 23 years since Sunday Silence (SA Derby winner) and Easy Goer (Wood winner) had their classic battles in the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, the winners of Santa Anita and Wood Memorial have combined to go 1 for 34 in the Ky. Derby (Fusaichi Pegasus is the one winner - off the 2000 Wood).

Furthermore, the last 13 winners of the S.A.D. have only finished in the money once in the Derby ( Pioneerof the Nile's 2nd in 2009). Now a large part of that IMO is because of the polytrack that used to be in place there - not a factor anymore.
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Old 04-06-12, 07:23 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

I thought The Santa Anita Derby joined the rest of the main preps last year with a $1 million purse. I see it's $750,000 this year.

The Illinois Derby is a Grade III and has a purse of $500,000.
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Old 04-07-12, 04:26 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

I have to admit - I didn't think Gemologist could win this race. I threw him out of my exacta box. That was a game run to hold off Alpha. Undefeated heading to the Derby. Probably will be the favorite or maybe 2nd choice depending on how Creative Cause does today and Hansen next week.
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Old 04-07-12, 04:33 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Alpha had a bad trip - nearly went down. Gemologogist had a perfect trip - granted he was on the outside.
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Old 04-07-12, 04:50 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Hit the exacta there. Won't pay much but at least Creative Cause didn't win. Had them boxed over the wrong horse in the Tri.
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Old 04-07-12, 04:52 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Not much of a field in the Carter.
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Old 04-07-12, 05:00 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Of course I try to take Jackson Bend to win but it was too late. Great rally by Caleb's Posse.
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Old 04-07-12, 05:10 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

The Carter was a hell of a race. I thought Caleb's Posse would win, but he got off the rail (it didn't open up) a little too late.

There's little question, IMO, that once again, older horses will be the horses to watch in 2011.

I await with bated breath (not really) to see how the last two of the major preps will turn out next Saturday. I hope we see a really top notched 3-year emerge.
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Old 04-07-12, 09:42 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Winning times for the 3 Derby preps run today: I'll Have Another (1:47:88); Gemologist (1:50:96); Done Talking (1:53:88). That's good time for the Santa Anita Derby winner. The other two - nothing to write home about. I'm anxious to see the gallop out figures (distance & time) of each of the winners. It's not always a factor, but more often than not.

Other News: Harve de Grace has been withdrawn from The Apple Blossom. She was scheduled to carry 123 lbs. while Plum Pudding was to carry 118. Porter (owner of 2011 HOY) said that was just too much of a weight advantage.
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Old 04-08-12, 08:35 AM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
Other News: Harve de Grace has been withdrawn from The Apple Blossom. She was scheduled to carry 123 lbs. while Plum Pudding was to carry 118. Porter (owner of 2011 HOY) said that was just too much of a weight advantage.
That sucks. Was hoping to see her in that race. The La Troienne usually doesn't have as good a field.

Last edited by Red Dog; 04-08-12 at 08:40 AM.
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Old 04-08-12, 08:50 AM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Gemologist and Alpha both posted a 98 BSF in the Wood. Not very impressive.

Caleb's Posse and Jackson Bend both had 109s. Shackleford wasn't too shabby either - a 106. Calibrachoa scratched from the Carter but he owns the best BSF (111) in a mile and under this season so far. It seems to me that the Sprint/Mile is where the best racing will be found this season. The Met Mile should be a good one - figure we'll see all or most of these horses there.
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Old 04-08-12, 02:05 PM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

94 BSF for I'll Have Another. Apparently S.A. has been a blazing track this season.
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Old 04-12-12, 12:17 AM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Saturday, 1 Million Arkansas Derby (gr.1, Race 11, 5:45 p.m. CST), 3YOs, 1 1/8 Miles

TV - TVG & HRTV (I believe)

PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer, ML Odds

1. Cozzetti (KY), J Lezcano, 118, D L Romans, 15/1
2. Stat (KY), J R Velazquez, 118, T A Pletcher, 10/1
3. Najjaar (KY), C H Borel, 118, D C Peitz, 15/1
4. Jake Mo (KY), M C Berry, 122, A Milligan, 30/1
5. Secret Circle (KY), R Bejarano, 122, B Baffert, 5/2
6. Isn't He Clever (KY), R Albarado, 122, H Dominguez, 6/1
7. Optimizer (KY), J K Court, 118, D W Lukas, 30/1
8. Atigun (KY), T J Thompson, 118, K G McPeek, 30/1
9. Sabercat (KY), C S Nakatani, 122, S M Asmussen, 15/1
10. Raconteur (KY), C P DeCarlo, 122, T A Pletcher, 15/1
11. Bodemeister (VA), M E Smith, 118, B Baffert, 9/5

I like Optimizer at 30-1. I would imagine he will be bet down at post time. He is a definite closer as he displayed in The Rebel, finishing second. I also like the fact that he carries 4 lbs. less weight. Court has been aboard the last two Arkansas Derby winners.

Sabercat may be the fastest of the group. His problem - distance.

Stat is an overbet, IMO. Reason - trainer & jockey.
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Old 04-12-12, 12:28 AM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

$400,000 Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II, Race 10, 5:07 p.m.), 4 & Up, 1 1/8 Miles

PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer

1. Nehro (KY), C S Nakatani, 115, S M Asmussen
2. Win Willy (KY), I Ocampo, 114, M Robertson
3. Don Dulce (KY), J K Court, 112, R L Morse
4. Stachys (KY), A Birzer, 113, M E Biehler
5. Hymn Book (KY), J R Velazquez, 118, C R McGaughey III
6. Alternation (KY), L S Quinonez, 117, D K Von Hemel
7. Yawanna Twist (NY), M J Luzzi, 115, J Parisella
8. Ron the Greek (FL), J Lezcano, 118, W I Mott

ML hasn't been set. This is a really good field of older horses. The ML hasn't been set, but I would imagine Hymn Book will be the ML favorite. John Velazquez hasn't had too good of luck at Oaklawn. He rode Afleet Alex (prohibitive ML favorite) in The Rebel & finished last. He chose not to ride him in The Arkansas Derby - rode a Pletcher horse instead. Big mistake.

If Nehro has fully recovered from his injuries - he is the horse to beat IMO.

Last edited by classicman2; 04-12-12 at 12:51 AM.
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Old 04-12-12, 12:47 AM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

$750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I, Race 11, 6:18 p.m.), 3YO, 1 1/8 Miles (Polytrack)

PP. Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Odds

All the horses will carry 123 lbs.

1. Heavy Breathing (KY), C Lanerie, T Pletcher, 12-1
2. Gung Ho (PA), E Prado, M Maker, 30-1
3. Prospective (KY), L Contreras, M Casse, 10-1
4. Hansen (KY), R Dominguez, M Maker, 6-5
5. Russian Greek (KY), M Mena, G Dorochenko, 50-1
6. Dullahan (KY), K Desormeaux, D Romans, 6-1
7. Politicallycorrect (KY), E Trujillo, W Ward, 30-1
8. Midnight Crooner (KY), G Gomez, B Baffert, 15-1
9. Holy Candy (KY), J Rosario, J Sadler, 30-1
10. Howe Great (KY), J Castellano, G Motion, 6-1
11. Ever So Lucky (KY), J Leparoux, J Shepphard, 12-1
12. Hero of Order (KY), E Martin Jr., G Dorochenko, 12-1
13. Scatman (KY), S Bridgmohan, M Lauer, 12-1

Hansen will most likely be a odds-on-favorite at post time. He is the current second choice in the pre-KY Derby wagering. I don't believe he has ever run on a synthetic track before. It does make a difference. But, most of the derby horses won't have run on any either.
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Old 04-12-12, 08:23 AM
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Re: Horse Racing -- The Sport of Kings -- 2012 and beyond

Originally Posted by classicman2 View Post
I like Optimizer at 30-1. I would imagine he will be bet down at post time.
Lovely. That's who I liked. A big part being the jockey.

I think Bodemeister, who has had the most impressive pair of BSFs so far this season, has to finish at least 2nd to qualify for the Derby.

Not a fan of the Blue Grass because of the Polytrack. Not a good field either. I might take a stab at Scatman, although it's weird that they are running him at Keeneland instead of Oaklawn. Maybe they see a weaker field in the Blue Grass as I do.
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