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College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Old 03-02-09, 08:21 AM
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College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

March is here! The best month of the year!

National TV Schedule (conference title games in bold):

Monday, March 2
Villanova at Notre Dame, ESPN, 7 HD
Bethune-Cookman at Winston-Salem State, ESPNU, 7
Baylor at Texas, ESPN, 9 HD
Jackson State at Arkansas-Pine Bluff, ESPNU, 9

Tuesday, March 3
Michigan State at Indiana, ESPN, 7 HD
Cincinnati at South Florida, ESPNU, 7
Richmond at Charlotte, CBSC, 7
Kansas State at Oklahoma State, ESPN2, 7:30
Auburn at Alabama, ESPN, 9 HD
Rutgers at Syracuse, ESPNU, 9 HD
Ohio State at Iowa, BTN, 9 HD

Wednesday, March 4
Northwestern at Purdue, BTN, 6:30 HD
North Carolina at Virginia Tech, ESPN, 7 HD
Boston College at N.C. State, ESPNU, 7 HD
Marquette at Pittsburgh, ESPN2, 7:30
Memphis at Houston, CBSC, 8
Wisconsin at Minnesota, BTN, 8:30 HD
Texas A&M at Colorado, ESPNU, 9 HD
Kansas at Texas Tech, ESPN2, 9:30
Air Force at UNLV, CBSC, 10

Thursday, March 5
Big South semifinal #1, ESPNU, 6
Tennessee at South Carolina, ESPN, 7
Providence at Villanova, ESPN2, 7
Saint Joseph's at Temple, CBSC, 7 HD
Big South semifinal #2, ESPNU, 8
Illinois at Penn State, ESPN, 9
Dayton at Xavier, ESPN2, 9
California at Arizona, FSN, 10:30 HD

Friday, March 6
Ohio Valley semifinal #1, ESPNU, 7
Ohio Valley semifinal #2, ESPNU, 9

Saturday, March 7
Connecticut at Pittsburgh, CBS, noon HD
Michigan at Minnesota, ESPN, noon HD
Penn State at Iowa, BTN, 2 HD
Kentucky at Florida, CBS-regional, 2 HD
California at Arizona State, CBS-regional, 2 HD
Missouri at Texas A&M, ESPN2, 2
Maryland at Virginia, ABC-regional [MAP], 3:30 HD
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, ABC-regional [MAP], 3:30 HD
Oregon at UCLA, ABC-regional [MAP], 3:30 HD
Texas at Kansas, CBS, 4 HD
Big South championship, ESPN2, 4
DePaul at Georgetown, ESPNU, 5 HD
Washington State at Washington, FSN, 5:30 HD
Atlantic Sun championship (at Nashville, TN), ESPN2, 6
Horizon League semifinal #1 (UW-Green Bay vs. TBD), ESPNU, 7 HD
Texas-El Paso at Southern Miss, CBSC, 8
Ohio Valley championship (at Nashville, TN), ESPN2, 8
Horizon League semifinal #2 (Butler vs. TBD), ESPNU, 9 HD
Louisville at West Virginia, ESPN, 9 HD
UNLV at San Diego State, CBSC, 10

Sunday, March 8
Alabama at Tennessee, CBS-regional, noon HD
Purdue at Michigan State, CBS-regional, noon HD
Missouri Valley championship (at St. Louis, MO), CBS, 2 HD
Northwestern at Ohio State, BTN, 4 HD
Duke at North Carolina, CBS, 4 HD
Clemson at Wake Forest, FSN, 6 HD
Indiana at Wisconsin, BTN, 7 HD
West Coast semifinal #1 (Gonzaga vs. TBD), ESPN2, 9:30 HD
West Coast semifinal #2 (St. Mary's vs. TBD), ESPN2, 11:30 HD


Complete TV Schedule:
http://mattsarz44017.tripod.com/bask...08/week17.html

Last edited by Red Dog; 03-06-09 at 02:42 PM.
Old 03-02-09, 08:23 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

RPI Top-60 thru Sunday:

1 Pittsburgh 25-3 0.6685 18 0.5838 1 1
2 Duke 24-5 0.6642 5 0.6047 7 7
3 North Carolina 24-3 0.6571 24 0.5786 4 5
4 Michigan St 23-5 0.6547 4 0.6058 9 9
5 Oklahoma 26-3 0.6546 31 0.5730 3 3
6 Connecticut 27-2 0.6536 33 0.5718 2 2
7 Kansas 24-5 0.6454 14 0.5860 15 15
8 Memphis 26-3 0.6413 50 0.5593 5 4
9 Utah 20-7 0.6354 11 0.5876
10 Louisville 23-5 0.6345 17 0.5840 6 6
11 Xavier 23-5 0.6285 48 0.5611 19 22
12 Washington 22-7 0.6259 20 0.5824 21 21
13 Missouri 23-5 0.6243 54 0.5556 11 8
14 Clemson 22-6 0.6231 29 0.5744 12 13
15 Villanova 23-6 0.6223 35 0.5688 10 12
16 Florida St 22-7 0.6216 27 0.5782 23 25
17 Wake Forest 22-5 0.6213 68 0.5501 13 14
18 Butler 24-4 0.6171 99 0.5299 24 23
19 Illinois 23-7 0.6166 30 0.5734 20 20
20 West Virginia 20-9 0.6154 16 0.5849
21 Tennessee 18-10 0.6147 2 0.6113
22 BYU 21-6 0.6139 49 0.5598
23 Syracuse 20-8 0.6123 13 0.5865
24 Purdue 22-7 0.6110 39 0.5667 16 16
25 LSU 25-4 0.6107 96 0.5322 18 18
26 UCLA 22-7 0.6097 45 0.5623 22 19
27 Marquette 23-6 0.6091 66 0.5504 8 10
28 Dayton 24-5 0.6085 107 0.5231
29 Siena 23-7 0.6084 73 0.5460
30 Utah St 25-4 0.6065 129 0.5115
31 Oklahoma St 19-9 0.6064 12 0.5873
32 Wisconsin 17-10 0.6060 6 0.6022
33 Arizona St 21-7 0.6039 56 0.5552 14 11
34 Gonzaga 22-5 0.6013 93 0.5341 17 17
35 Texas A&M 20-8 0.6012 37 0.5676
36 Minnesota 19-8 0.5967 47 0.5620
37 California 21-8 0.5967 51 0.5592
38 Texas 19-9 0.5967 32 0.5724 25 24
39 Creighton 25-6 0.5958 105 0.5244
40 Georgetown 15-12 0.5943 1 0.6215
41 UAB 20-9 0.5930 65 0.5507
42 Ohio State 18-9 0.5926 26 0.5783
43 South Carolina 20-7 0.5923 83 0.5390
44 Miami (FL) 16-10 0.5887 10 0.5895
45 Temple 17-11 0.5880 44 0.5627
46 San Diego St 17-8 0.5855 63 0.5512
47 Arizona 18-11 0.5844 34 0.5712
48 Boston College 20-9 0.5835 43 0.5628
49 Florida 21-8 0.5829 88 0.5355
50 Michigan 17-12 0.5827 9 0.5911
51 UNLV 20-8 0.5821 78 0.5429
52 Maryland 18-10 0.5818 23 0.5793
53 Cincinnati 17-11 0.5816 19 0.5838
54 Rhode Island 22-8 0.5797 116 0.5180
55 St. Mary's 22-5 0.5784 167 0.4930
56 George Mason 20-9 0.5775 117 0.5177
57 Western Kentucky 20-8 0.5769 132 0.5106
58 Southern California 16-12 0.5758 15 0.5854
59 Virginia Tech 17-11 0.5744 36 0.5684
60 Niagara 24-7 0.5742 157 0.4981


Good breakdown here:
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/polls?poll=5
Old 03-02-09, 08:26 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Bubble Watch:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch
Old 03-02-09, 08:29 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

And because I know you all care....




Yes, sadly, not a good year for my Bison. The new coach blows.

But at least we get another crack at our arch-rivals whom we beat on the road a couple weeks ago.

Go here for all the Conference Tournament brackets.

Last edited by Red Dog; 03-02-09 at 08:33 AM.
Old 03-02-09, 09:24 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Based on the current RPI #s, here's how the field of 65 might look given the following assumptions:

(1) Within each Conference, the school with the best winning percentage gets the automatic bid. If more than one such school, the one with the best RPI.
(2) For the remainin 34 bids, the schools with the best RPI gets in.
(3) Seeds are assigned based solely on RPI.

Source for data: http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

SEED: Highest --> Lowest
1: Pittsburgh, Duke, North Carolina, Connecticut
2: Oklahoma, Michigan St, Memphis, Kansas
3: Utah, Louisville, Xavier, Washington
4: Missouri, Illinois, Clemson, Villanova
5: Florida $t, Wake Forest, Butler, West Virginia
6: Brigham Young, Purdue, LSU, UCLA
7: Syracuse, Marquette, Dayton, Siena
8: Tennessee, Utah St, Oklahoma St, Wisconsin
9: Arizona St, Texas A&M, Gonzaga, California
10: Minnesota, Texas, Creighton, Georgetown
11: Ohio St, Florida, UAB, South Carolina
12: Miami (FL), Temple, Michigan, San Diego St
13: Western Ky (SunBelt), VA Commowealth (Colonial), Davidson (Southern), American (Patriot)
14: Binghamton (Am.East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), North Dakota St (MidCon), Weber St (Big Sky)
15: Akron (MAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Cornell (Ivy), Tenn-Martin (OVC)
16: Radford (Big South), Morgan St (MEAC), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)
17: CSU Northridge (Big West), Alabama St (SWAC)
Old 03-02-09, 09:32 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
Our lock status is probably asterisked with "as long as we don't completely screw up and lose to Rutgers at home", but that's not too likely. If we win that and lose to Marquette, we're 22-9 (10-8), with OOC neutral/road wins over Memphis, Kansas, and Florida.

22-9 (10-8) doesn't get us in with our normal OOC prowess (especially since we really have no signature BE wins), but it's good enough this year.

Hopefully we can take out Marquette and win a couple of games in the BET to try and move up to a 4-5 seed (then again, I'd probably rather see them as a 6 seed than a 5, huh?)
Old 03-02-09, 09:34 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Originally Posted by kenbuzz View Post
Based on the current RPI #s, here's how the field of 65 might look given the following assumptions:

(1) Within each Conference, the school with the best winning percentage gets the automatic bid. If more than one such school, the one with the best RPI.
(2) For the remainin 34 bids, the schools with the best RPI gets in.
(3) Seeds are assigned based solely on RPI.
Fortunately, the selection committee does not assign bids or seeds based solely on the RPI.
Old 03-02-09, 09:44 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Yep. The RPI is simply one tool. A good place to start, but it goes far beyond that.

For example, Siena ain't going to be a 7-seed. Not even close. They'll have to win the MAAC and if they do that, their high-water mark is probably an 11.

Georgetown wouldn't even be the field right now, let alone a 10.
Old 03-02-09, 10:21 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

My understanding is that a team's RPI is barely even looked at when considering bids or seeds. They group their opponents by RPI and look at how they performed against those groups.
Old 03-02-09, 10:26 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

My understanding is that it is on the nitty-gritty sheets with all the other things you commonly hear that the committee members use to evaluate the teams. I don't think they ever lay it out like you see above.

When I said it is a good place to start, I meant that mainly for folks like us.

Every year I try to do a top-16 S-curve on Selection Sunday, I start with the RPI but then mainly focus on the record vs 1-25, 25-50, 51-100, etc. Unfortnately, I haven't found a site that does this anymore. Kenpom used to do it, but he took out all the RPI stuff on his site. Rivals.com (what I linked earlier) has 1-50 and 51-100, but not a 1-25.
Old 03-02-09, 10:32 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

I thought RPI wasn't used to determine the entire at-large field, but if it comes down to picking one team and leaving another out, the RPI can be a tie-breaker.
Old 03-02-09, 10:33 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

I've never heard that.
Old 03-02-09, 10:46 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post
And because I know you all care....
I do.

Go Engineers! Er....Mountain Hawks!
Old 03-02-09, 10:52 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Penn State needs to beat Illinois and Iowa to get a bid it seems. Unfortunately since it is their first 20 win season since the last time they go a bid.
Old 03-02-09, 10:57 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

I think it was ESPN, but they were saying Georgetown was "in consideration to be on the bubble' - hmmm well see....
Old 03-02-09, 11:00 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Originally Posted by WallyOPD View Post
Fortunately, the selection committee does not assign bids or seeds based solely on the RPI.
Understand. What I posted was just a starting point. But it's interesting from the perspective of figuring out where the cutoff is in the at-large field in terms of RPI.

Taking into account all of the automatic bids, it looks like teams in the top 48 RPI-wise would either (a) be in the tourney, or (b) be out only because some other school with a lower RPI leap-frogged them. If you figure no more than 5-6 schools in that boat, then a top-42 RPI should virtually guarantee you a spot on the dance floor.
Old 03-02-09, 11:04 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Originally Posted by kenbuzz View Post
then a top-42 RPI should virtually guarantee you a spot on the dance floor.

I disagree. I think it's a very strong possibility, but there have been teams in the recent past in the 20s that haven't made it in.

Most of those teams between 28 and 42 right now are in precarious position. Siena and Utah State are very likely to finish in the top-42, but they are going to have to win their conference tourneys in all likelihood. Creighton might have to as well.

Last edited by Red Dog; 03-02-09 at 11:07 AM.
Old 03-02-09, 11:10 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Originally Posted by kenbuzz View Post
Understand. What I posted was just a starting point. But it's interesting from the perspective of figuring out where the cutoff is in the at-large field in terms of RPI.

Taking into account all of the automatic bids, it looks like teams in the top 48 RPI-wise would either (a) be in the tourney, or (b) be out only because some other school with a lower RPI leap-frogged them. If you figure no more than 5-6 schools in that boat, then a top-42 RPI should virtually guarantee you a spot on the dance floor.
The system doesn't really work like that. As Red Dog pointed out, Siena has an RPI of 28 but they're probably on the outside looking in right now for an at-large. Take a look at last year, when Dayton (32) and Illinois St. (33) were left out, while Kentucky (57) and Oregon (58) made it in. Or look back in 2006 when Missouri St. (21) missed out while Seton Hall (58) made it in. It's really hard to say there's a "safe" cut-off for an at-large spot since a team's RPI is not even the biggest factor in the decision.
Old 03-02-09, 11:17 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Originally Posted by WallyOPD View Post
It's really hard to say there's a "safe" cut-off for an at-large spot since a team's RPI is not even the biggest factor in the decision.
I'd say top-20, to be conservative. That clears the Missouri State historical hurdle.

I usually post the top-60 because historically, you really see a fall-off after that point when it comes to at-larges (known to happen, but very rare).

Last edited by Red Dog; 03-02-09 at 11:21 AM.
Old 03-02-09, 11:53 AM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

I think Creighton gets in with a MVC Semi or Finals appearance.
Old 03-02-09, 12:13 PM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Latest update from Lunardi

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

LAST FOUR IN
Penn State
Providence
Creighton
Arizona

FIRST FOUR OUT
Florida
Michigan
Minnesota
San Diego State

NEXT FOUR OUT
Cincinnati
Maryland
Texas A&M
Kansas State
Old 03-02-09, 12:39 PM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Originally Posted by Quake1028 View Post
I think Creighton gets in with a MVC Semi or Finals appearance.
On the bright side, by being the 2-seed rather than 1-seed, they get a much better semifinal draw for their profile in 61-ILL State than 94-Bradley (or SIU). Of course, winning it is tougher. I think if they beat Illinois St in the semis, they'll get in. If they don't, they'll really have to sweat.

I think, for future years, the MVC should consider a stepladder tourney format (top 2 seeds automatically make it to the semis) to protect their best teams like the WCC and Horizon have.

Lunardi is really bouncing around.
Old 03-02-09, 01:04 PM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

Originally Posted by Red Dog View Post

Lunardi is really bouncing around.
I just don't get how he can have both VT and Miami-FL (not appearing on his Last-4 in) so much higher than Maryland - at least 10 spots. In fact, VT is much higher.

Then what has South Carolina done to merit a 9-seed? They have 1 top-50 win, and that was by 1 point at home over #50 Florida. They shouldn't even be in his field. Yeah they are 5-0 vs. 51-100, but Maryland is 5-1 against that group.

I'm still not seeing Providence either. 68 RPI, 2 top-50 wins and 3 51-100 wins. That doesn't stack up against Maryland or Michigan or Minnesota.
Old 03-02-09, 03:47 PM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

VT, Miami, Penn State, Providence, South Carolina all being in over Maryland is lunacy.
Old 03-02-09, 04:37 PM
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Re: College Hoops, March 2-8 **Start Punching Tickets Edition**

There's always that one head scratcher in the field though (Arkansas over Syracuse in 2007 anyone?)

Plus I think there's some amount of projection to the last few games of the year / conference tournament in those brackets.

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