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2008 Fantasy Football Advice Thread

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2008 Fantasy Football Advice Thread

Old 08-06-08, 01:11 PM
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2008 Fantasy Football Advice Thread

Post your questions here.

I'll start off with a complicated one involving a trade offer in a keeper league:

I've been offered a trade in my fantasy keeper league, and I'm interested in hearing some opinions.

As background, I am drafting 2nd in a 12 team serpentine draft. My picks are 2-11-2-11-etc. You can keep players from the previous year's roster, but you have to forfeit a pick to do so. Normally, the forfeited pick is one round EARLIER than where the player was drafted the previous year, but because we started this last year, we had a special one-year-only rule for players in Rounds 1-5:

Players drafted in Round 1 cost a 1st and 3rd to keep
Players drafted in Round 2 cost a 2nd and 4th to keep
Players drafted in Rounds 3-5 may not be kept

My keepers this year are:

Ben Roethlisberger (will cost me my 8.11 pick)
Earnest Graham (will cost me my 11.02 pick)

I figure each of these guys would go earlier in the draft then where I could get them by burning a pick to keep them - each of them is a bargain. I'm also considering keeping Reggie Wayne, who will cost me my 2.11 and 4.11 picks. I'm only considering this because my picks in rounds 2 and 4 are so late.

Here's where it gets interesting. With the #2 overall pick, I would normally be looking at getting Adrian Peterson or LaDanian Tomlinson. Peterson is a free agent (was drafted in Round 3-5 last year), but Tomlinson may or may not be available. His owner would have to forfeit 1.04 and 3.04 to keep him, and while I think he should, I honestly don't know if he will.

I have been offered the #1 overall draft pick. The offer is to swap picks in Round 1 and Round 4 with the guy at the top of the draft. I would be moving up one spot in Round 1 (thus guaranteeing at least Adrian Peterson), and the cost is me moving down one spot in round 4 (to the end of the round). The downside is that if Tomlinson is NOT kept, then I traded up for nothing and downgraded my 4th rounder as a result.

I think taking the deal is the way to go. It's like insurance... it guarantees I get one of the two players I covet for a very small cost, and if it turns out I would've got one of them anyway, I'm still only out a tiny downgrade.

I figure he's looking to trade out of the #1 spot because he too wants Peterson or Tomlinson, and wants to improve a pick somewhere (anywhere) to trade down. His risk is that Tomlinson's owner may keep him, which devalues the 1.02 pick significantly, but if he's willing to accept that risk, so be it.

Thoughts?

Last edited by kenbuzz; 08-06-08 at 03:18 PM.
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Old 08-06-08, 01:16 PM
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When does everyone have to declare their keepers?
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Old 08-06-08, 01:18 PM
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In a week and a half. But he's been pretty aggressively shopping the #1 pick around. I'm viewing this as a "do it now or don't to it at all" opportunity.

He has also indicated he's be willing to swap Round 1 and Round 6 picks with me. I have 2 picks in round 6 (I picked one up a while back when I traded to get Wayne), and I'm thinking of retaining my 4th rounder (in case I opt to keep Wayne), and offer him instead 1.02 and 6.08 in exchange for his 1.01 and 6.12 picks. It's a better offer than he said he'd take... I don't think I want to let this one get away.

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Old 08-06-08, 01:54 PM
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I don't even see why one would need to think twice about this. If you can move up 1 spot in an earlier round simply at the expense of moving down one spot in a later round, why would you not ever do this?
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Old 08-06-08, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Red Dog
I don't even see why one would need to think twice about this. If you can move up 1 spot in an earlier round simply at the expense of moving down one spot in a later round, why would you not ever do this?
what he said. simply don't see the downside. In all likelihood, in round 4 he's not even going to pick the guy you want anyway.
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Old 08-06-08, 03:17 PM
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Yup, I'm pretty much thinking the same thing. I've posted the trade offer to the league's website - swaps in 1st & 4th. Even if I opt to keep Wayne, the 4th I get from him is good enough to help pay the keeper cost. Heck, if I keep Wayne, the swap in round 4 costs me nothing, since I would be spending it for the keeper in any event. It's a free upgrade to the #1 slot.

Now it's a matter of waiting to see if he accepts the deal, or if he uses this to go shop the pick around, looking for a better deal.
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Old 08-07-08, 09:12 AM
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I'd do the deal too. If I were you I would not give up the two picks for Wayne. If the deal goes through you will have AP or LT plus Graham. You can use your second pick on a top tier WR (Wayne may still be there) and still have your 4th.

Last edited by Byron_T; 08-07-08 at 09:19 AM.
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Old 08-07-08, 09:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Byron_T
I'd do the deal too. If I were you I would not give up the two picks for Wayne. If the deal goes through you will have AP or LT plus Graham. You can use your second pick on a top tier WR (Wayne may still be there) and still have your 4th.
Those are good points regarding Wayne, but the fly in the ointment is that our league requires 3 starting WRs *and* places a premium on them by awarding 0.5 points per reception. Based on last year's draft, the top WRs fly off the board starting late in Rd 1. Wayne will not be available at 2.11, neither will Owens, Moss, Houshmandzadeh or C.Johnson. Edwards will also be gone, but that's because he's a keeper (will cost his owner a 5th round pick - cheap!)

The other factor at play is that the deal is unlikely to go through before the keeper deadline. If my guess is correct in that the guy in the #1 spot is looking to get one of the big 2 RBs *and* get an upgrade somewhere, he'll wait until LT's owner declares his keeper status. If LT is kept, the deal won't be made, I'm certain of that. If the deadline comes and LT is not declared, then I've lost my chance to secure Wayne, even though I'll likely be able to make the trade. And if given the chance, I *would* make the trade, because even though both the #1 and #2 picks are guaranteed to get one of these two, I would prefer to have my choice, and moving down 1 spot in the later round dosen't significantly hurt me. (And if I opt to keep Wayne, the 4.12 pick I end up getting will be forfeited just like the 4.11 would have been, so there's ZERO cost to me.)

BTW, I've been looking at the NFL Draft Value Chart a LOT this past month. My 2.11 and 4.11 picks are #23 and #47 overall with a combined value of 1190 points. If Wayne goes anywhere in the first 12 picks, his worth is 1200 points or more. So if Wayne is a first-rounder, I'm better off keeping him and giving up my 2.11 and 4.11 picks, because the math works in my favor. If he goes with the 13th or later pick, then I paid too much for him. Last year, our top 3 WRs went in the 7, 10, and 14 spots, and current ADP numbers show Wayne as the concensus #3 overall WR, going as the 13th pick. The problem is that if either of the guys ahead of him are kept (Moss, Owens), Wayne may be the 1st or 2nd WR actually selected in the draft. Moss will be in the draft (he went in Rd 3 last year), but Owens went in Rd 2 and his owner is also the guy with LT. No telling whether he will be kept or released.

It's a tough call, but considering that I traded to get Wayne in the off-season (gave up my 5th for Wayne and his owner's 6th), I'm leaning toward keeping him.
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Old 08-09-08, 12:39 AM
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Does anyone know of a free fantasy game that is an auction style draft I have never done it before and I am interested in giving it a shot and don't want to pay for it.
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Old 08-09-08, 02:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Spicollidriver1
Does anyone know of a free fantasy game that is an auction style draft I have never done it before and I am interested in giving it a shot and don't want to pay for it.
I believe ESPN.com is offering free auction drafts this year.
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Old 08-11-08, 01:13 PM
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Suddenly I'm not feeling so great about protecting Brandon Marshall and Willis McGahee
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Old 08-11-08, 02:25 PM
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My FF draft is on the 29th and I have the 4th pick. Can't wait!
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Old 08-14-08, 08:44 AM
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I am allowed to have one keeper in my league. Basically it comes down to keeping TO for a second round pick, or Ronnie brown with a third. This is a 10 team league. Leaning toward TO, Brown too much of a risk. What would you do?

Last edited by mh4268; 08-14-08 at 09:04 AM.
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Old 08-14-08, 08:47 AM
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I'd take Brown or nothing.
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Old 08-14-08, 09:35 AM
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Originally Posted by starman9000
I'd take Brown or nothing.
It looks like Brown would be a fourth round pick (we go by avg yahoo draft selection). Leaning toward him now.
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Old 08-14-08, 02:02 PM
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Originally Posted by mh4268
I am allowed to have one keeper in my league. Basically it comes down to keeping TO for a second round pick, or Ronnie brown with a third. This is a 10 team league. Leaning toward TO, Brown too much of a risk. What would you do?
Depends. When in those rounds are you picking, and where do you think those two would go in an open draft using your league's format and scoring? Only keep a player if his keeper cost is "cheaper" than his free market cost, and if looking at two such players, keep the one who is a better value.

If TO's cost is the 16th overall pick and you think he'd go 10th, he's a bargain at 16. If Brown's cost is the 25th overall pick and you think he's go 12th, he's a BIGGER bargain, even though TO is a better pick.
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Old 08-16-08, 01:16 PM
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Any help would be appreciated.

I have a live draft next Friday and I have never participated in a live draft before.

Is there anywhere where I can print out a list of free player rankings with projected stats and their Bye Weeks?

All of the things I find don't include the Bye weeks.

Thanks!
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Old 08-16-08, 04:58 PM
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I think it would be beneficial if people would rank their top 5 per position, QB, WR, RB, TE, K, D

I know every league has different rules but I feel most are fairly comparable.

I'll provide mine once I get them together which I need to do this week anyways..
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Old 08-16-08, 05:07 PM
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I haven't done much research, but I have a pretty good idea of my top-5 at the 4 main positions:

1. Tom Brady
2. Peyton Manning
3. Tony Romo
4. Drew Brees
5. Ben Roethlisberger

1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Steven Jackson
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Brian Westbrook
5. Joseph Addai

1. Randy Moss
2. Terrell Owens
3. Reggie Wayne
4. Braylon Edwards
5. Larry Fitzgerald

1. Jason Witten
2. Kellen Winslow
3. Antonio Gates
4. Tony Gonzalez
5. Chris Cooley
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Old 08-16-08, 05:55 PM
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My 5 in each category:

1. L.T.
2. Westbrook
3. A.P.
4. Addai
5. Gore

1. Moss
2. Wayne
3. Fitzgerald
4. T.O.
5. TJ Houshmandzadeh

1. Brady
2. Manning
3. Romo
4. Brees
5. Don't care after 4

1. Witten
2. Winslow
3. Gates
4. Gonzalez
5. Cooley/Clark

Edit: Based on a PPR League

Last edited by tbone; 08-16-08 at 05:59 PM. Reason: Based on a PPR League
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Old 08-19-08, 06:09 PM
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Anything new on S. Jackson? I am drafting fifth in ten team league. Draft is tommorrow and sorta unsure what to do.
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Old 08-19-08, 07:20 PM
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Originally Posted by beckham View Post
Anything new on S. Jackson? I am drafting fifth in ten team league. Draft is tommorrow and sorta unsure what to do.
STL - RB Jackson's Holdout Becoming Critical

Source: Jim Thomas, St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Despite rumblings over the weekend that there might be some movement on the Steven Jackson front, sources familiar with the negotiations, or lack thereof, say there was no dialogue between the St. Louis Rams and Jackson's agent save for a brief phone call Friday between the parties. So the holdout continues. For the first time, Rams coach Scott Linehan conceded Sunday that time is of the essence in getting Jackson ready for the season opener Sept. 7 in Philadelphia. "It is getting critical to where time now becomes more of an issue for just the physical part of getting ready for the opener," Linehan said. "Every day we miss now does start to factor in as to what the workload will be from the start."

Edit: I wouldn't touch him as my first pick even if he signed tomorrow, because you know he's going to be rusty.

Last edited by tbone; 08-19-08 at 07:25 PM. Reason: my words
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Old 08-21-08, 01:32 AM
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Well how my picks fell!

Like I said, I was at the fifth pick and just to let you know here are my first seven picks: Addai(no big suprise although with my S. Jackson concern he went second!?), Frank Gore, TJ Houz., S. Holmes, Andre Johnson, A. Gates, Rookie Jonathan Stewart.

If you ask me thats a good first seven. I did have to settle for McNabb for my starting QB but thats a good trade off, I think.

The rest went: Ronnie Brown, D.J. Hackett, J. Fargas, J. Delhomme, T.B. Defense, Chris Brown(Hou RB), Mason Crosby
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Old 08-21-08, 09:55 AM
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Originally Posted by kenbuzz View Post
The other factor at play is that the deal is unlikely to go through before the keeper deadline. If my guess is correct in that the guy in the #1 spot is looking to get one of the big 2 RBs *and* get an upgrade somewhere, he'll wait until LT's owner declares his keeper status. If LT is kept, the deal won't be made, I'm certain of that. If the deadline comes and LT is not declared, then I've lost my chance to secure Wayne, even though I'll likely be able to make the trade. And if given the chance, I *would* make the trade, because even though both the #1 and #2 picks are guaranteed to get one of these two, I would prefer to have my choice, and moving down 1 spot in the later round dosen't significantly hurt me. (And if I opt to keep Wayne, the 4.12 pick I end up getting will be forfeited just like the 4.11 would have been, so there's ZERO cost to me.)

...

It's a tough call, but considering that I traded to get Wayne in the off-season (gave up my 5th for Wayne and his owner's 6th), I'm leaning toward keeping him.
Here's what's happened.

- I kept Wayne, so I don't have a pick in the 2nd round.
- The guy with Tomlinson kept him, so he's off the board.
- The guy with the #1 overall pick actually likes my offer to swap picks in round 1 (I'm 1.02 right now) in exchange for swapping picks in round 6. (I have 6.08 I aquired through the trade that brought my Wayne). So the offer is my 1.02 and 6.08 for his 1.01 and 6.12.
- With my offer in hand, he's now shopping for a better deal. I feel kinda like an ugly girl who has a prom date, but whose date is now looking to see if he can find a prettier one to take instead.

I'm not going to sweeten the deal, because after looking at the declared keeper list, I've decided that taking Randy Moss at 1.02 is more than acceptable. Here's who's gone:

QB:
Anderson
Brady
Favre
Manning/P
Roethlisberger
Romo

RB:
Addai
Barber
Graham
Grant
Jackson/S
Jones-Drew
Lewis/Ja
Tomlinson
Turner/M
Westbrook
White/LenDale

WR:
Bowe
Crayton
Edwards
Holmes/S
Marshall
Wayne
White/Ro

TE:
Clark/Da
Miller/H
Winslow

To my mind, the best two players on the board are Peterson and Moss. If Peterson goes 1.01, the difference between the next bunch of good RBs (Gore, Portis, etc) is negligible compared to the drop between Moss and the next tier of WRs. Also, with so many owners forfeiting picks in Rds 1 & 2, and my relatively early 3.02 pick, I'm comfortable having Moss and Wayne and a RB like Marshawn Lynch or Larry Johnson in Rd 3.

I'd prefer Peterson, of course, but I'm guaranteed Moss. So if the trade goes through, I'll take AP 1.01 and not look back. If not, I'll take AP 1.02 if he's there, or I'll take Moss and call it a day.
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Old 08-23-08, 02:33 PM
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Just had my live draft last night and this is my team.

The only differences in the league that I am in is that QB's get 1 pt. for every 20 yards. It's a PPR league and when a RB/WR hit 100 yards receiving or rushing they get a 5 point bonus, if a QB hits 300 yards passing he gets a 5 point bonus.

This is the team I ended up with. I had the first pick in a 10 team draft.

1) RB - Ladanian Tomlinson
2) WR - Larry Fitzgerald
3) RB - Ryan Grant
4) RB - Brandon Jacobs
5) WR - Roy Williams
6) WR - Roddy White
7 QB - Derek Andersen
8) WR - Nate Burleson
9) RB - Ronnie Brown
10) QB - Jay Cutler
11) TE - Tony Scheffler
12) DEF - Chicago D/ST
13) RB - Chris Perry
14) WR - Roydell Williams
15) K - Nate Kaeding

I questioned some of my picks, I should have taken Braylon Edwards over Fitzgerald. I definately would have if I knew I'd end up with Andersen.

I also love my RB's, and if Ronnie Brown does come back healthy, I'd be looking golden at RB.

My question is, should I drop Roydell Williams or Chris Perry for Matt Schaub, Justin Gage or Desean Jackson?
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